understanding the role of value chains in enhancing -...
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Understanding the role of value chains in enhancing diets in low-income settings
Diagnostics to support the identification, design and evaluation of interventions.
Aulo Gelli and Noora Aberman, IFPRI.
Based on ongoing work with Jason Donovan, Amy Margolies, Marco Santacroce, and others…
IMMANA webinar, May 2017.
Agenda
• Rationale- Recap: Conceptual framework, pathways and typology for interventions
- Improving the sustainability of WFP programmes
• Diagnostics- Objectives
- Methods
- Results
- Discussion
- Conclusions
Value chains and nutrition
• How to leverage market-based interventions to improve diets of low-income populations?
• Value chain (VC) framework can provide a useful lens to examine role of markets in food systems and potential to improve diets (Hawkes & Ruel, 2011, Gelli et al. 2015)
• However…‐ A VC is by nature commodity specific
‐ Focus in VCs to date has been on efficiency and economic returns, with little explicit focus on consumers and “nutrition”
‐ Understanding links between VCs, overall business environment, and “nutrition” is complex, very little rigorous evidence exists on these links
How can VC interventions improve nutrition?
• 3 generalised pathways through which VC interventions can influence nutrition outcomes, based on leveraging (i) demand, and (ii) supply of nutritious foods, and (iii) enhancing value chain performance
‐ Recognise that food-related nutritional impacts derive from changes in quality of overall diet, not just nutrient content of an individual food
‐ Provide a basis on which to theorize impact pathways of specific interventions in specific contexts and to collect evidence of impact
‐ Also used as a basis of a typology of value chain interventions appropriate for different contexts of supply and demand
Food value chain C
Food environment
Food availability
Food affordability
Food acceptability
Nutrient density
Food safety risk
Under/over-consumption
Changing food consumption
Nutrition and health status
Food consumed from own production
Food from purchases
Food from safety net transfers
Food value chain B
Food value chain A
Demand SupplyFood production
Target Group Age, gender, etc. Location Income, nutrition & health status Nutritional knowledge and practices Number
Income
Quality of Diet
Sales and profits
Value Chain Characteristics• Structure• Capabilities of value chain actors• Linkages & governance structures• Nature and magnitude of constraints• Access to resources
Value Chain Capacity & IncentivesProduct, Market & Institutional Context Credence issues Perishability Level & modes of market competition Information access & asymmetries Level & nature of regulatory systems Costs of entry & exit Level & nature of market dynamics
Income to consumption
Production to consumption
Legend
Food environment as the interface between supply and demand
• 5 properties of the food environment provide link between quality of diets and value chain performance
1. Food availability
2. Food affordability
3. Food acceptability
4. Nutrient content
5. Food safety risk
Food value chain C
Value Chain Characteristics• Structure• Capabilities of value chain actors• Linkages & governance structures• Nature and magnitude of constraints• Access to resources
Value Chain Capacity & IncentivesProduct, Market & Institutional Context
Credence issues Perishability Level & modes of market competition Information access & asymmetries Level & nature of regulatory systems Costs of entry & exit Level & nature of market dynamics
Identifying, designing and evaluating interventions to tackle constraints in value chains
• Range of possible interventions to tackle constraints in VC is very broad
• Use a typology based on demand and supply profile to characterise food environment context and examine VC constraints
B) High demand and inadequate supply A) High demand and adequate supply
D) Low demand and inadequate supply C) Low demand and adequate supply
-
Demand(Consumption levels by targetPopulation)
Supply(Year-round availability in markets)
+
- +
Bean and legumes Steady increase in demand not followed by supply side investments; problems related to low production capacity, inefficient aggregation and other post-harvest processes.
Intervention options:• Innovation in production
technologies• Innovation in the
formulation of inputs for production (and improved access to inputs)
• Organization of producers to supply higher volumes
• Facilitation for the expansion of market outlets
Dairy & meat productsExisting ample base of suppliers. Potential problems may relate to high costs, inconsistent quality, limited attention to food safety etc. or overconsumption of unhealthy foods.
Intervention options:• Improved business and
regulatory environment (food safety)
• Upgrades in technologies• Improved mechanisms for
coordination between chain actors
• Taxation of unhealthy foods
Locally grown vegetables Consumption is not prioritized by local consumers; potential problems related to limited awareness of health benefits, costs, competition from unhealthy snacks.
Interventions options:• Social marketing to
stimulate demand• Adjustments in the
regulatory framework• Subsidies for
consumption • Support for marketing by
retailers• Public purchasing
programs
Nutritious tree fruitsLow diversity of offer, strong seasonality effects, inadequate shortage and marketing facilities, or bio-fortified crops, with good nutritional qualities, but with limited production for markets, coupled with limited awareness of health benefits and overall low demand (relative to other food types).
Intervention options:• Building capacities for
primary production • Producer organization• Social marketing to
stimulate demand• Subsidies for consumption • Incentives for risk taking by
processers and retailers
Improving the sustainability of WFP operations• WFP is seeking strategic and operational linkages between smallholder
agricultural production, private sector processors, social protection and nutrition across its programme portfolio
• In Malawi, WFP transfers targets beneficiaries across lifecycle (“demand side”): - PLW, infants and young children: Stunting prevention project (RUTFs, BCC, strengthened
health services), targeted supplementary feeding
- School age children: School meals and take-home rations
- Households: General food distribution, cash/vouchers, food for assets
• In addition, WFP provides “supply side” programming through P4P- Technical skills and inputs to selected FOs to improve farming practices and increase
production output, through supply side partners
• Programmes like HGSF link supply and demand side of WFP operations- Can these linkages be strengthened to improve the sustainability of WFP activities?
Diagnostics
• Aim: Link a set of nutrition problems of target populations to possible constraints in the supply and demand of specific foods, that can then be addressed by interventions
• 5 key objectives/steps: (building on (Timmer & Falcon., 1983) and more recently (WHO, 2013)
1. Understanding the nutrition problem2. Examining macro-level food systems context (& enabling environment )3. Characterizing diet patterns and relative contribution of different
crops/missing foods, contaminated foods, etc.4. Identify value chain constraints and opportunities related to nutrition and
food security5. Prioritising intervention options
Country context• Malawi is a low-income food-deficit country, with high rates
of child stunting (37% in 2015), low rate of wasting (3%) (DHS
2015-16)
- 8% of children 6-23 months have minimum acceptable diets (DHS 2015-16)
- 36% of children anemic (greater among poor andrural populations); 33% of women aged 15-49 years are anemic
- Malaria is endemic (33% of children under 5, DHS-MIS, 2014)
- HIV prevalence is high (9% in 15-49 year olds, peaking at 20% for women 15-19 years and at 21% for men aged 50-54 years)
- Recurrent severe seasonal food shortages Source: Malawi Orphan Care Project
Study setting
• Data was collected from 60 communities randomly selected among a set of food-insecure villages in Zomba district in southern Malawi
• Ongoing RCT
Seasonality and prices during study period
Source: WFP.
Source: FEWSNET
Baseline Follow-up
Methods
• Mixed-methods descriptive study based on two rounds of data collection
- Panel of 1200 households, including 7-day recall food consumption module
- In-depth individual interviews: 56 in-depth interviews and 27 structured direct household observations
- Market surveys in 5 main markets in Zomba district
• In-depth market study: - Structured interviews with 47 traders located in the 5 main markets, semi-
structured interviews with government agencies, businesses and traders
- Lean season only
Findings: Household nutrient availability
• Data from 7-day recall of household consumption and expenditure suggests that low-income households face important deficits in nutrient intake
Estimated nutrient availability of household food consumption (AE) / EAR, across 2 seasons, all households and for households in the lowest expenditure quintile in Malawi
Source: NEEP baseline & Immana follow-up surveys, Zomba, Malawi. (n=1,156).
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Iron Zinc Vitamin A
Poorest quintile, post-harvest
All HH, post-harvest
Poorest quintile, lean season
All HH, lean season
• Food intake dominated by maize
• Food consumption per adult equivalent (AE) ~ 1 kg of food/day and to only 40% of that amount in households from the lowest expenditure quintile
Findings: Food consumption patterns across seasons
Source: NEEP baseline & Immana follow-up surveys, Zomba, Malawi. (n=1,156).
“Food is maize, but others require money”• Preferences for diverse foods: pulses, veg,
animal protein
• However, “maize first” preferences, budgetary limitations, limited and seasonal availability, hamper diverse diet
- Meat usually eaten at harvest time, and pulses are sold if cash is required
“It is in our culture...food is maize, but others require money” - Male respondent, Dual-head household, Village 6, Zomba.
Coping with the lean season• People eat less, and less preferred foods (sometimes
nutrient dense)
• Non-maize meals are not considered “food”, often used to soothe children
• Buy-as-you-go approach to filling maize needs
“It helps when you have sugar, you can make tea and kids have that with avocado...if there is cassava, you can cook for the kids and they can take it with water and cool down. If they were crying of hunger, they stop crying.” - Female respondent, Dual-headed household, Village 5, Zomba.
Contributions of foods to nutrient intake and sourcing patterns across seasons
• Although food consumption is dominated by maize, a range of more nutritious foods are being consumed, including leafy greens, fruits (avocado, mango), chicken, dried fish, dried beans and peas, and groundnuts
• Role of markets varies considerably by food and by season
Source: NEEP baseline & Immana follow-up surveys, Zomba, Malawi. (n=1,156).
On metrics: How efficiently can market provide diet-based “nutrient bundles”?• Combine HH survey with market surveys to calculate nutrient content of dietary
bundles divided by prices of dietary bundles during post-harvest and lean seasons
• Use nutrient index based on “nutrient value score” (based on % RDAs)
Work in progress with Joanne Arsenault
Market analysis
• Aim: Provide insights on the role of informal markets in Zomba to deliver year-round access to safe and nutritious food to rural households
• 5 main markets in Zombadistrict
• Semi-structured interviews with traders and other VC actors
• Focused on 6 chains based on analysis of food consumption patterns
Market sellers interviewed in market in and around Zomba, Malawi
Availability and affordability of nutritious foods
• Leafy greens: - Demand low during early months,
mainly because rural households tend to have leafy greens growing in their garden
- Demand picks up mid-year as income improves following maize harvest and stocks from own garden dwindle
- Sellers who are also growers (without irrigation) have small window in which to sell the greens (January-April)
- Demand is greatest towards end of the year. Price increases between 25-50% during periods of peak demand.
0=no sales; 1=low volume sales; 2=high volume sales; 3=lowest prices during year; 4=highest prices during year
Fruits
• Avocado- Sales are marked by strong seasonality and large
variation in price. For most of the year there is little avocado on market. Avocados begin to appear just before the major maize harvest, when rural household would have limited resources to purchase
- Sales peak in April/May, and then collapse. Small amounts of avocado may appear after May sold by traders with access to fruits from other regions
- Prices vary from 100%-300% during the short production season
Animal source foods
• Dried fish:
- Available year round; however, fish harvests generally decline during the hottest months of the year
- Most fish are purchased from intermediaries or directly from fisherman in Lake Malawi and Lake Chilwa
- Demand is lowest February-March, reflecting abundant fish stocks and lack of income by rural households. Following the maize harvest in April demand picks us, with the months of June and July being the peak selling period
- Prices vary markedly by season, fish type, size, availability, other factors, with prices fluctuating between 25% to 200% during the year
• Live chicken
- Available throughout the year by local traders
- Demand is limited during most of the year. Rural households tend to purchase more chicken following the maize harvest, from April to July. Demand peaks in December, as rural households purchase chicken for end-of-year festivities
- Price roughly 75-100% greater during peak season compared to off-season
Legumes
• Dried beans and peas: - Available throughout the year, demand peaking in months
following maize harvest and at end of year
- Traders purchase beans following harvest and store them, or purchase them from traders in central region or in Mozambique
- Prices for red beans vary about 25-50% during the year
• Groundnut: - Available during most of year. Demand grows during final
quarter, as rural households have consumed most of own production and seek to purchase seed for the next year’s production
- Price varies considerably between peak and off-season (roughly 300%)
Overview of food chains and value addition
Chain Chain reach Actors involved Inputs, services utilized
by chain actors
Level of processing
Leafy greens Localized: surrounding
villages
Producers, market
traders
None None
Avocado Localized: surrounding
villages
Producers, market
traders
None None
Live chicken Localized: surrounding
villages
Producers, market
traders
None None
Dried fish Regional: Shores of
Lake Malawi and Lake
Chilwa
Fishermen, local and
regional traders
None Drying
Beans and peas Regional: sourced
from throughout the
country
Producers, traders
(large and small scale)
Transportation, storage Drying
Groundnuts Regional: sourced
from throughout the
country
Producers, processors
(conventional and
niche markets), traders
(small and large scale)
Storage, marketing,
aflatoxin control
High, processed
peanut based
products for
national market
Biggest marketing challenge as reported by sellers (n=47)
ChallengeSellers reporting as
biggest challenge (n)
Low demand/excess supply 20
Lack of regular customers 11
Irregular demand (majority of sales at end of month)*
3
Lack of capital / limited stock 7
Low quality product (e.g. discoloured leaves due to lack of fertilizer & sale in full sun, small fish size)
3
Lack of transportation 2
Other challenges
• Inadequate market infrastructure: - Lack of clean water and toilets; lack of
infrastructure for storage and selling; and weak coordination among sellers/producers.
• Limited evidence of product differentiation based on origin, quality, or other attributes
Greens being sold under full sun not under covered shed
Dietary Change Demand & Supply
Characteristics
Consumer-related Issues Main Constraints Implications for Intervention Design
Groundnuts are consumed
throughout the year but high
levels of aflatoxin contamination is
a major health risk
(Quadrant A)
Consumers willing and able to
purchase, & high availability in
markets during all or part of
the year
Sorting and grading likely to
result in low-income
consumers exposed to foods
w/ higher levels of aflatoxin
Gaps in regulatory
environment and quality
assurance; limited capacity &
weak incentives for
smallholder to invest in
improved production
Developing & testing third-party
quality assurance; strengthening
capacity of processors to minimize
food safety concerns
Beans & legumes are consumed in
low volumes, increased
consumption will improve diet
quality
(Quadrant B)
Consumers willing to prioritize
the purchase of food when
funds are available, but
limited availability some parts
of the year
Willingness to purchase and
prioritize over other food
(except maize), consumers
with limited purchasing
capacity during peak demand
periods
Production bottlenecks limit
availability during periods of
the year; limited incentives for
traders to engage in supplying
local markets
Innovation in production
technologies to expand availability;
improved coordination and other
measures (e.g. storage) with traders
to reduce costs
Animal source foods (esp. dried
fish) / Leafy greens: Available but
consumption is low; increased
consumption will improve diet
quality
(Quadrant C)
Low consumption, despite
generally high degree of
availability in local markets
Preferred foods but low
willingness to pay due to
insufficient budget /
nutritious wild foods, seen as
coping foods, not preferred
Producers and sellers with
limited opportunities to
expand or add value to
production due to limited
effective demand
Subsidies/social transfers to
facilitate consumption in critical
periods (e.g. lean season); support
to chain actors to reduce costs to
production and trading; Information
campaigns to increase acceptability
Nutritious fruits (e.g. mangoes and
avocados) are not consumed in
significant amounts throughout
the year due to limitations on both
supply and demand side; increased
consumption will improve diet
quality
(Quadrant D)
Low consumption; not
typically purchased due to
budget constraints and not
preferred; highly seasonal
availability
Low willingness to pay for
fruits, with preferences
towards consumption of
staples, fruits relatively
expensive during off-peak
seasons, adding further
deterrence to year round
consumption
Lack of storage and transport
facilities for highly perishable
products, limited demand
increases risk for production
developments and other
investments; few processors
and distributors engaged in
sector
Information campaigns to increase
acceptability; support to chain
actors to process or store to extend
shelf life; investments in local
marketing infrastructure;
Subsidies/social transfers to
facilitate consumption when in
season (school meals)
Lean Season: No purchasing power
• Households are highly constrained in the lean season
- Little room to maneuver in diets, constrained buying power -> “pull”
- Likely that BCC won’t be highly effective
• However, some lean season interventions have potential
- Promote underutilized foods in large-scale lean season interventions to address the pull and the push
- For instance, supply avocado for school meals and/or vouchers for purchasing leafy greens, provided along with MVAC
Outside the lean season: Information and enhanced supply • Financial constraints are loosened, so some more room to influence
food consumption patterns
- Promote behavior change to increase acceptability and consumption of underutilized foods • Provision of inputs for nutritious foods that aren’t typically preferred (bio-
fortified foods, drought tolerant foods, local “wild” foods) along with education about benefits and preparation
- Extend the time period for which leafy greens are available into the months when people can afford them• Inputs (seeds) for hearty leafy greens, plus simple irrigation approaches
(in areas where there is a nearby water source)
Some evidence from 2 interventions • Effects of lean season food transfers on food security, diets and nutrition status of
young children in Zomba district in Malawi (quasi-experiment PSM/DID) - Food transfers increased calories and nutrient consumption at household level, and increased
dietary diversity of young children
- Effect on diets driven by consumption of milk and dairy, oils and fats
- Effects concentrated in poor households
• Impact of agriculture-nutrition training and input provision on diets, food security and production (RCT)
- Provision of inputs (seeds/vines) of nutritious foods and training improved household production diversity and children’s dietary diversity
- As expected, effects driven by increase in planting of legumes (beans) and roots and tubers (orange fleshed sweet potato)
- Unexpectedly, effect of ag-intervention on dietary diversity for children 36-72months occurred before nutrition trainings had started, driven by consumption of fruits
Different seasons call for different support • Results point to the need for a layered approach to interventions:
- Complementary role of:1) lean season food transfers to smoothen consumption and protect vulnerable households from seasonal price spikes (quadrant C), and of
2) ag-nutrition inputs and training to promote longer term investment shaping supply of (and demand for) nutritious foods (quadrant B)
• A strategy for interventions could be framed around enhancing consumption in low-income households of basket of nutritious foods
- Objectives could be framed around interventions/constraint in specific food chains
- Factor in seasonality components explicitly
- Includes roles for public and private sectors
Important questions remain…
• What are the costs of the strategy/interventions…?
• Are impacts sustained?
• Spoiler alert
Acknowledgements
• Research by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), WFP, Save the Children, Chancellor College at the U. of Malawi and Wadonda:
• Programs implemented by WFP and Save the Children with local partner NGOs
• Research funded by:- NEEP, IMMANA
- USAID
- Gender, Agriculture and Assets Project (GAAP)
- CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) led by IFPRI.
• Program and research participants
Thank you! Now we would like your thoughts and inputs…