UNECE/Eurostat Seminar on Migration statistics, Geneva, 21-23 March 2005

How Do the CIS Countries Estimate Migrants Stock (Do

They)?

Olga ChudinovskikhMoscow State University

Outlines

UN approach to migrant stock estimation in the CIS countries: do the UN definitions always guarantee a correct result?

Evolution in tradition of migrants’ identification in RF and USSR

What data valid for migrants stock estimation do the national censuses (Round 2000) in the CIS countries present?

Data sources (related to migrants stock) in the Russian Federation

Conclusions

UN DESA Population Division: Trends In Total Migrant Stock: The 2003 Revision

The United States is the largest recipient of international migrants, with 35 migrants in 2000. It is followed by the Russian Federation (13 million), Germany (7 million), Ukraine, France and India.

Estimations for the successor states were derived by taking account of

migration flows that occurred among them in 1990-2000, and by considering the

number of persons enumerated in RF, but born in other Republics of the former USSR according to 1989 census of the USSR.”

(Source: Keiko Osaki. The International Migrant Stock a Global View. Paper presented at the IOM seminar “Workshop on Approaches to Data Collection and Data Management” Geneva, - 9 September 2003, IOM website).

Problematic issue (1):Combination of criteria used for different

periods 1990- 2000 (annual statistics data)- • crossing the border, • for residence • (neither citizenship, nor place of birth) Before 1990 –(census data) place of birth

(out of the republic)

Problematic issue (2): Before the collapse of the USSR it was

migration of • nationals of the same state • born in the same state (major part of

cases)

Problematic issue (3)• Rules of migrants registration and

statistical observation were changed in 1996 > underestimation of foreign migrants since 1996

• Over- and underestimation of stock

(International) migrant definition in the USSR and the RF statistics and scienсeBefore 1990- main problems: to decrease migration from ruarl areas and to

stimulate migration to the regions of rapid industrial development. No experience of international migration estimation (no special methodology, no special definitions)

Demographic encyclopedia published in 1985 defined only “a migrant” as “a person who migrates, i.e.

crosses the administrative borders of territories and changes place of residence for more or less long period”.

These criteria were used for statistical observation both of internal and international migrants in the USSR and Russia , neither citizenship, nor place of birth criterion is used.

Since 2002 data on citizenship of migrants (annual flows)are published in satistics yearbooks.

- 1992-1993 – refugees and forced migrants definitions (in special laws),- 2002 – foreign citizens and stateless persons definition (in a special law)- No concrete definiton of an international migrant (Inertia or heritage of the past)

 

Total Population (thousands)

Migrant stock

Number (thousands)

Per cent of population

Belarus 10 187 1 284 12,6Russian Federation 145 491 13 259 9,1

Ukraine 49 568 6 947 14,0

UN estimation of migrant stock in selected countries. Source: UNPopulation Division, DESA,International migration 2002 (United Nations Publication, Sales No. E.03.XIII.3).

Place of birth Citizenship Had lived in the place of residence since birth / not since birth If not – since what year – Previous place of residence (Except RF ) In some countries- place of residence at the census moment (Moldova), - If was

temporary absent – (period of absence ) (Azerbaijan ), Refugees or deported (Ukraine, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan)

+ Languages, ethnicity

In the RF census program place of previous residence was mentioned only by those who arrivedin 1989-2002 and related to the date of the previous census: Where lived in 1989(Region, Rural or Urban area)

Census :the main source of data for migrants stock

estimation. Questions related to migration in the CIS Censuses

(Round 2000) programmes

    PopulationBorn in the

republic

Born out of

the rep.Nationals

Citizens of the other countries and stateless pers.

No answeron citizenship

ArmeniaAbs. 3213,0 2927,3 285,7 3185,5 27,5 0,0

% 100% 91,1% 8,9% 99,1% 0,9%  

Ukraine Abs. 48240,9 43084,7 5156,2 47950,0 169,1 0,0

% 100% 89,3% 10,7% 99,4% 0,4%  

BelarusAbs. 10045,2 8886,4 1158,8 9934,5 107,8 2,9

% 100% 88,5% 11,5% 98,9% 1,1% 0,0%

KazakhstanAbs. 14953,1 12839,8 2113,2 14867,9 85,2 0,0

% 100% 85,9% 14,1% 99,4% 0,6%  

Russian FederationAbs. 145166,7 Data are being processed 142442,4 1025,4 1269,0

% 100%     98,1% 1,0% 0,9%

Table 1. Basic data on foreigners and foreign born population in selected CIS countries. Source: National censuses data (Round 2000)(Absloute- thousands )

Period of residence criteria (arguments pro): Table 2. Distribution of life-time migrants (born and arrived from abroad) by period of Residence in selected CIS countries Source: National censuses data (Round 2000)

Period of residence (years)

After the collapse of the USSR

Before the collapse of the USSR5 and < 6 -- 9

10 and more total

Ukraine Abs.

351123 423451 4377354 5.156.240 778.886 4.377.354

% 6,8% 8,2% 84,9% 100% 15% 85%Belarus Abs.

198883 199738 864402 1.263.023 398.621 864.402

%

15,7% 15,8% 68,4% 100,0% 32% 68%

Chart 1. Distribution of life–time migrants born out of the republic by period of residence in selected CUS countries (source-see table 2)

Ethnicity: if it can be a criterion for migrants stock identification?One must be very careful using this criterion RF population – 190 ethnic groups, Ukraine, Belarus population - more than 130 ethnic groups

The criterion of ethnicity partially can be applied to some categories of migrants to monitor their presence in the country.

Table 3. Percentage and dynamics of titular population in selected CIS countries.(Source - National censuses (Round 2000) data, Statistics yearbook “CIS countries in 2002”)

 % of titular population

Dynamics of titular population since the last USSR census (1989)

% of non-titular population

Azerbaijan 90,6% 1,24 9,4%

Armenia 99,1% 0,98 0,9%

Belarus 81,2% 1,03 18,8%

Kazakhstan 53,4% 1,23 46,6%

Kyrgyzstan 64,9% 1,40 35,1%

Russia- Russuans 1,12 mln, 1,4 mln did not specify ethnicity 79,8% 0,97 20,2%

Ukraine 77,8% 1,003 22,2%

Chart 2. Foreigners, foreign born and non-titular population in selected CIS countries- what criteria is the best?

0,9%

18,8%

46,6%

22,2%

8,9%

11,5%

14,1%

10,7%

0,9%

1,1%

0,6%

0,4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Armenia

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Non-titular population Foreign born Foreigners

The Russian Federation sources of data on international migration : which one to choose for migrants stock estimation?

Table 4. Main migration data systems in Russia2-11- parts of Central data bank of foreigners (in future)

Authority Quality of data and methodology

Availability

1 Current statistics of migrants (based on registration procedure) – both foreign and internal flows

Ministry of home affairs/ Federal statistics service

Unsatisfactory,considerable underestimation

Available

2 Data on permits on arrival for residence (foreigners) and departure for residence (Russian citizens)

Ministry of home affairs Moderate. Not processed since 2002.

Was partially available

up to 2002

3 Data on refugees and asylum seekers Ministry of home affairs (Federal migration

service- FMS)

Satisfactory Available

4 Data on work permits for foreign employees and Russian citizens l employed abroad via Russian employment agencies

Ministry of home affairs (FMS)

Unsatisfactory,considerable underestimation

Available

5 Data on residence permits and permissions for temporary residence

Ministry of home affairs(FMS)

No information on methodology

Not available

6 Migration cards statistics Ministry of home affairs(FMS)

No information on methodology

Not available

7 Border statistics Federal security service (Federal Border Service)

No information on methodology

Partially available

8 Data on foreign students Ministry of science and education

Satisfactory Available

9 Visas and invitations statistics Ministry of foreign affairs

No information on methodology

Not available

10 Ministry of Taxes data Ministry of Taxes No information on methodology

Not available

11 Population Census Federal statistics service Satisfactory Available

Full census program (questionnaire) covered:1. Foreign citizens and stateless persons – residents of Russian

Federation2. Persons officially employed in RF (in Russian and

foreign organizations and enterprises) and students - if intended to stay in Russia for more that 1 year

3. Asylum seekersShort census program covered:1. Foreign residents who stayed in Russia temporarily and

intended to stay here for less than 1 year2. Tourists, patients in hospitals, private guests, transit migrantsMain results – 1 mln – citizens of foreign countries, 1,3 mln-

did not identify citizenship, 40 thous. – have double citizenship.

Categories of foreigners covered by RF Census-2002 program

Official annual statictics of migration. Undrestimation : since 1996 considerable part of migrants (both

internal and international) are excluded from statistical observation

Since 1996 international (and internal) migrantsare registered in the police by

Place of residence Place of temporary stay (no time limits)

Included into statistical observation

Since 2002 international migrants should be excluded from statistical observation(data collected only in administrative sources, not available)

2000. X. - foreigners need to get residence permit to be registered (many migrants from abroad are excluded from observation),

2002- New Law on foreigners’ status – foreigners should not be observed by current statistics (theoretically)- (additional criterion – citizenship).

Since 2002 official annual statistics (theoretically) must observe only the RF nationals

Table 5. Nationals and foreigners in international migration flows: RF annual official statistics of migration

   Total

RF Nationals With double citizenship

Foreigners Including: Stateless

CIS and

Baltic countri

es

Other foreign countries

In-migration2002 184612 166325 23847 15311 13941 1370 2976

2003129144 108767 19060 17257

16511 746 3120

  Out-migration

2002106685 100732 5917 4626 3883 743 1327

2003 94018 89971 4863 2893 2651 242 1154

   Net-migration

2002 77927 65593 17930 10685 10058 627 1649

2003 35126 18796 14197 14364 13860 504 1966

Administrative (police) sources.Main definitions of foreigner’s status in Russia (some of them

define categories of migrants to be included into migrants stock). 1. Temporary stay : term of stay - by visa expiry term , or <90 days.

Not more than 12 months)2. Temporary resident (<3 years, annual re-registration)3. Permanent resident ( <5 years, re-registration, number of re-

registrations is unlimited)4. Military status (5 year contract)5. Special status (diplomats)6. Foreign employee7. RefugeeAccording to the Law foreign citizen must be registered in

police during three days after his/her arrival. Ukraine citizens – 90 days .Details and variables: information collected about applicant for residence permitName, sex, date of birth, citizenship, temporary address, marital status, family members having residence permit, place of job, study, source and type of income,, «criminal» background or administrative rules violation experience, moves out from Russia , where, purpose of trip.

Work permits statistics: only legal workers > underestimation of irregular migrants, 2003 - 378.000 work permits, stock of irregular migrants - appr. 2 - 5 mln

Basic problems (besides underestimation of flows):

Some categories of foreign citizens are not included into estimation (Byelorussians)

Primary work permits and prolonged permits are not estimated separately

Duration of contract is not estimated

Table 6. The RF Statistics of forced migrants and asylum seekers :main figures.

Previous place of residence (accumulated and registered during the year under review)

New place of residence (RF regions) Number of applications for refugee status Number of refugees by place of origin and place of destination Age and sex composition Level of education Ethnicity Etc.

2002 2003Accumulated figures of registered migrants by 1 January 2004 since

beginning of registration

Forced migrants

total

including:Forced migra

nts total

including:

Forced migrants total

including

forced re-

settlers

refugees

forced re-

settlers

refugees

forced re-settlers (since 1 July 1992)

refugees (since

20 March 1993)

Total 20504 20453 51 4726 4668 58 360.796

352.071 8725

Table 7. Border statistics (available data) :Foreign citizens’ purposes of trip and countries of origin/ destination

Country of origin / (destination)

2002

Purpose of trip (entries)

Service Tourism Private Residence Transit Assistant personnel Total

Total (entries / (departures) 3014159 3105563 15159067

12338 524335 1493249 23308711

Citizens of :  

CIS and Baltic countries: 1246973 578249 13951382

11711 429592 838786 17056693

Byelorussia 49667 15631 95602 370 23721 12501 197492

Kazakhstan, etc. 119710 36677 2499082 5425 114599 180500 2955993

Other countries:….

Foreign citizens registration data bank- will it be a register of foreign population?Planned to be created by January 2006, responsible authority – Federal Migration service

Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data)1. Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners2. Data on refugees and asylum seekers3. Labour migrants data (work permits data)Stage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data)4. Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits5. Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreignersStage 3 (other ministries data)6. Federal border service data 7. Visas and invitations statistics 8. Customs Committee data 9. Ministry of taxes data 10. Other ministries and authorities data on foreignersStage 4 Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined)

Surveys:The recent (and, perhaps, the best one)IOM survey: Irregular migrants in Russian Federation (Moscow

Migration Research Program 2002 )Questionnaire – more than100 questions

3034 respondents (including migrants from the CIS countries, Afghanistan, China and Vietnam, etc.) , 30% had work permit, 50% had police registration

9 regions (including Moscow, St.Petersburg and Far East region)

Estimated ratio of irregular migrants in regional population from 0.5% to 10%. Total estimated stock of irregular migrants - 5 mln. Pedriod of stay?

90% of irregular migrants stock – from the CIS countries Estimated migrants stock of Chinese - 400.000

Why data on migrants stock are considered to be important?

They are supposed to create a background for the estimation of economic, political and cultural consequences of foreign migrants’ presence in the country, their interaction with local population, etc.

There is a viewpoint that migrant stock data are necessary to “monitor the size and composition of population with foreign

origin having a long-term view on their integration” (Source: Enrico Bisogno, Presentation “International migration: practices of 2000 Round and issues for

2010”. UNFPA-UNECE-NIDI Training Programme on International Migration 24-28 January 2005).

Migrants who moved before the collapse of the USSR (and partially – after) needed adaptation rather than integration:

мajority of them spoke the same language, had common cultural roots, were born in the same country and were nationals of the same state

Positive: without similar or closer approaches and methodologies of migrant stocks and flows estimation international data comparison becomes problematic.

Not so positive: however, in some cases methodology must be more flexible to avoid an oversimplification of the task, especially if the situation is not simple and if we deal with a heterogeneous object.

Our opinion upon methodology used for migrants stock estimation in the RF(and other CIS countries)

Conclusions No concrete or uniform definition of long-term international migrant in the CIS

countries Prevalence of citizenship criterion Significance of period of residence criterion (the RF viewpoint) RF is more likely to exclude migrants who moved before the collapse of the USSR

from the stock, in the other CIS countries situation is not clear. Ethnicity can not be (the main) criterion for migrant identification in the CIS

countries Basic source of data for migrants stock estimation – Census Data from the other sources (RF case) either not available or not reliable. In RF -

the main source of annual data - current statistics on international migration is not reliable for migrant stock estimation.

Practical use of migrant stock estimation must be discussed. Historical background of population should be taken into account.