Session 3.2.: Challenges to Session 3.2.: Challenges to measure remittances and measure remittances and

emigrationemigration

DiscussantDiscussant Werner HaugWerner Haug

Swiss Federal Statistical OfficeSwiss Federal Statistical Office

Prelude: Different approaches for the Prelude: Different approaches for the measurement of emigrant stocks and flowsmeasurement of emigrant stocks and flows

Measuring the stock of emigrants through a Measuring the stock of emigrants through a register of emigrants and passport border control register of emigrants and passport border control data (entry/exit data) (ISRAEL) data (entry/exit data) (ISRAEL)

Measuring unofficial emigration based on LFS Measuring unofficial emigration based on LFS data on nonrespondents and emigrants in data on nonrespondents and emigrants in responding households (LITHUANIA)responding households (LITHUANIA)

Measuring emigrants abroad with a special Measuring emigrants abroad with a special module in the Population Census (persons who module in the Population Census (persons who left/returned in the last five years with country of left/returned in the last five years with country of destination and origin (TUNESIA)destination and origin (TUNESIA)

The discussion concentrates on the The discussion concentrates on the issue of remittancesissue of remittances

Remittances in the balance of payments : Remittances in the balance of payments : implications of the new definitionimplications of the new definition

Migration and remittances in household Migration and remittances in household surveys: designs and conceptssurveys: designs and concepts

Complementarity or contradiction between Complementarity or contradiction between macro and micro, economic, social and macro and micro, economic, social and demographic approachesdemographic approaches

The need for an integrated framework and The need for an integrated framework and methodological guidelinesmethodological guidelines

The balance of payment approachThe balance of payment approach

The new concepts and definitions The new concepts and definitions proposed in 2006 for the measurement of proposed in 2006 for the measurement of crossborder transactions in the BOP by the crossborder transactions in the BOP by the UN Technical Subgroup on the Movement UN Technical Subgroup on the Movement of Natural Persons are a big step forward. of Natural Persons are a big step forward.

But the implications of the new definitions But the implications of the new definitions and the link with household surveys are and the link with household surveys are not yet fully understood by statisticians not yet fully understood by statisticians and (even less) by policy makers.and (even less) by policy makers.

The case of Switzerland: an illustrationThe case of Switzerland: an illustration

Remittances from Switzerland, Remittances from Switzerland, 2004 according to BOP concepts2004 according to BOP concepts

Amount (Mrd. Amount (Mrd. SFr.)SFr.)

PercentagPercentagee

Total remittancesTotal remittances 18.518.5 100100

Social benefits Social benefits (transfers to former residents and/or workers (transfers to former residents and/or workers

abroadabroad))

7.67.6 4141

Personal remittancesPersonal remittances 11.011.0 5959

Net compensation of Net compensation of employees employees (salaries of non- resident workers/short term (salaries of non- resident workers/short term migrants)migrants)

7.17.1 3838

Personal transfers Personal transfers (revenue (revenue of long term migrants)of long term migrants)

3.93.9 2121

The case of Switzerland: an illustrationThe case of Switzerland: an illustration

Switzerland is the 4th most important sending Switzerland is the 4th most important sending country according to World Bank 2006. But:country according to World Bank 2006. But:

41 % of the remittances are social benefits 41 % of the remittances are social benefits transferred from the state or the social insurance transferred from the state or the social insurance sector to sector to former residents and/or workersformer residents and/or workers abroad (mostly retired but also unemployed). abroad (mostly retired but also unemployed).

38% are net compensations for salaries of 38% are net compensations for salaries of persons that are persons that are not long term migrantsnot long term migrants according to the UN definition (temporary according to the UN definition (temporary migrants, crossborder workers).migrants, crossborder workers).

Only 21% are personal transfers from Only 21% are personal transfers from long term long term migrantsmigrants to private households residing abroad - to private households residing abroad - and this amount is underestimated according to and this amount is underestimated according to recent household survey data.recent household survey data.

Implications and conclusionsImplications and conclusions It is extremely important to understand It is extremely important to understand in detailin detail

the composition of total remittance flows the composition of total remittance flows according to the BOP framework. according to the BOP framework.

BOP data BOP data include transfers from and to other include transfers from and to other sectorssectors than private households (state, social than private households (state, social insurance, the non-profit sector is also affiliated).insurance, the non-profit sector is also affiliated).

Transfers can go to private households abroad Transfers can go to private households abroad although no household member is working although no household member is working or residing in the sending country anymoreor residing in the sending country anymore. . The migration which is at the origin of a transfer The migration which is at the origin of a transfer can lie far in the past.can lie far in the past.

BOP data include transfers that are related to BOP data include transfers that are related to other forms of labour mobilityother forms of labour mobility than migration: than migration: crossborder and temporary workers (crossborder and temporary workers (< 3 < 3 months)months). .

Implications and conclusionsImplications and conclusions The balance of payment framework is The balance of payment framework is larger larger

than the usual « migration statistics » than the usual « migration statistics » approachapproach. .

Measurement problems Measurement problems are hugeare huge (international (international transaction reporting systems are rudimentary) transaction reporting systems are rudimentary) and estimation methods are extremely diverse, and estimation methods are extremely diverse, sometimes inexistant. sometimes inexistant.

It is essential to complement BOP information It is essential to complement BOP information with data from with data from household surveys collected household surveys collected on both sides of the migration chainon both sides of the migration chain to: to:– estimate the volumesestimate the volumes– and even more understand the economic, social and and even more understand the economic, social and

developmental impact of migration and remittances.developmental impact of migration and remittances.

Remittances and migration in Remittances and migration in household surveyshousehold surveys

Different household surveys and/or modulesDifferent household surveys and/or modulesare introduced/developed/tested to measureare introduced/developed/tested to measureremittances and migration: remittances and migration:

IOM migration and remittances studiesIOM migration and remittances studies ILO modules for Labour Force Surveys ILO modules for Labour Force Surveys IADB draft module on remittancesIADB draft module on remittances World Bank Living Standard Measurement World Bank Living Standard Measurement

SurveySurvey ……

Why so many instruments?Why so many instruments?

Which are the goals of the surveys?Which are the goals of the surveys? Which theoretical frameworks do Which theoretical frameworks do

they use?they use? Should we use existing surveys or do Should we use existing surveys or do

we need new ones? we need new ones? Could the surveys be better Could the surveys be better

coordinated and standardised?coordinated and standardised?

What to measure?What to measure?Different measuremetn goals are identified:Different measuremetn goals are identified: Volume of remittances on the macro level Volume of remittances on the macro level

(ILO, IADB)(ILO, IADB) Impact of remittances on poverty, Impact of remittances on poverty,

household income and living conditions household income and living conditions (World Bank)(World Bank)

Impact of remittances on the labor market, Impact of remittances on the labor market, the local economy and the community the local economy and the community (ILO, IADB)(ILO, IADB)

Link between type of migration, migration Link between type of migration, migration experience and remittances (IOM)experience and remittances (IOM)

The missing conceptual frameworkThe missing conceptual framework

However: the goals are not always clearly spelled However: the goals are not always clearly spelled out and operationalisation is often superficialout and operationalisation is often superficial

The conceptual framework is generally missing The conceptual framework is generally missing (compared with BOP, household income or labor (compared with BOP, household income or labor market statistics)market statistics)

For instance:For instance: The IOM survey in Moldova is very elaborate on The IOM survey in Moldova is very elaborate on

migration but has no real « remittances migration but has no real « remittances questions »questions »

The IADB questions have no migration context The IADB questions have no migration context and LFS modules proposed by ILO make only and LFS modules proposed by ILO make only sense if they are part of a lager household sense if they are part of a lager household income and migration framework in the LFSincome and migration framework in the LFS

Which framework ?Which framework ? It should be compatible with the definitions of the It should be compatible with the definitions of the

BOP frameworkBOP framework Coherence with the BOP framework requests e.g. Coherence with the BOP framework requests e.g.

that income from working abroad by resident that income from working abroad by resident household members should also be identified and household members should also be identified and treated as remittances, as well as social benefits treated as remittances, as well as social benefits from abroadfrom abroad

The framework should be a houshold income and The framework should be a houshold income and living conditions framework, adapted to the living conditions framework, adapted to the migration contextmigration context

This means that remittance data should als fit This means that remittance data should als fit into concepts and data from other surveys such into concepts and data from other surveys such as EU-SILC and the Household Budget Surveysas EU-SILC and the Household Budget Surveys

Specific methodological questions Specific methodological questions 2/12/1

Long term migrants remain economically Long term migrants remain economically and socially part of the household and socially part of the household although they are not residents anymore. although they are not residents anymore. The « transnational household » is a The « transnational household » is a reality, but demographic statistics do reality, but demographic statistics do ignore itignore it

Net worth of returnees during the last 12 Net worth of returnees during the last 12 months should also be included in the months should also be included in the estimation of remittances (I did not see estimation of remittances (I did not see respective questions in the questionnaires)respective questions in the questionnaires)

Specific methodological questions Specific methodological questions 2/22/2

Remittances from internal migrants should Remittances from internal migrants should also be identified as part of the houshold also be identified as part of the houshold incomeincome

Certain classifications need Certain classifications need standardisation: standardisation: – Modes of transactions of remittancesModes of transactions of remittances– End use of remittances etc.End use of remittances etc.

It remains unclear how collective It remains unclear how collective remittances and transfers through the remittances and transfers through the non-profit sector should be dealt with in non-profit sector should be dealt with in household surveyshousehold surveys

More work and increased More work and increased cooperation is necessarycooperation is necessary

Closer cooperation between BOP, migration and Closer cooperation between BOP, migration and development specialist is essential to improve development specialist is essential to improve survey instrumentssurvey instruments

Increased cooperation between international Increased cooperation between international organisations is necessary. Each organisation has organisations is necessary. Each organisation has its specific focus but on the country level, NSO’s its specific focus but on the country level, NSO’s have to bring the things togetherhave to bring the things together

In which surveys should we place questions In which surveys should we place questions regarding remittances and migration? regarding remittances and migration?

LFS are a possible platform, but only under LFS are a possible platform, but only under certain conditions and questions should also be certain conditions and questions should also be asked in LFS of net remittance sending countries. asked in LFS of net remittance sending countries. Surveys on income, expenditure and living Surveys on income, expenditure and living conditions are other important options. conditions are other important options.

A new (interagency and A new (interagency and intercountry) task force?intercountry) task force?

Do we need a new task force on the Do we need a new task force on the European level? Which should:European level? Which should:

coordinate with BOPcoordinate with BOP look at the questions regarding look at the questions regarding

remittances and migration in remittances and migration in different household surveys different household surveys

propose a coherent conceptual propose a coherent conceptual framework and methodological framework and methodological guidelinesguidelines

Thank you!Thank you!