ECONOMIC REPORT - FULL

JUNE 2017

Prepared for Commerce National Bank & Trust

By Jett Lazarus

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REPORT OVERVIEW

Slide # Topic

1 Title Slide

2 Report Overview

3 – 4 Early 2017 Recap

5 – 13 Our 2017 Housing Market

14 – 16 Bond Market Indicator

17 – 19 Our Labor Market

20 Statistics

21 Summary of Leading Indicators

22 Sources

Stocks have rallied in anticipation of President Trump’s economic agenda, which promises corporate and personal income tax cuts.

Corporate earnings, currently trapped overseas, are expected to be repatriated by the Administration’s offshore earnings tax.

The labor market continues to show signs of improvement due to steady employment increases. 138,000 net jobs were added in May.

The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.3% - a level not seen since

May of 2007 and March of 2001. (Underemployment ~ 14%)

Wages have grown by 2.5% year-over-year.

More than 52 million people in the U.S. (21%) currently rely on government assistance each month. Includes food stamps, public housing, Medicaid, and Temporary Assistance. 3

EARLY 2017 RECAP (1/2): ECONOMIC AGENDA & LABOR MARKET

On June 15th, The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 0.25%. New Fed funds range: 1.00% to 1.25%

Investors are expecting one more rate hike in 2017.

Currently, the Federal Reserve carries a $4.5 trillion balance sheet from its

Quantitative Easing bond buying programs, first of which began in October of 2008.

The central bank continues to invest the proceeds of its maturing bonds in new treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, maintaining the size of its balance sheet.

At the end of this year, the Fed will begin to downsize its balance sheet.

– Statement from FOMC’s meeting in June 2017

The Fed will start to reduce its reinvestments in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.

Beginning in Q4 of 2017, $10 billion in assets will be shed each month, increasing by $10 billion each quarter thereafter, until $50 billion worth of assets are cleared from the Fed’s balance sheet each month.

This gradual process will unwind Quantitative Easing by contracting the money supply and raising rates. 4

EARLY 2017 RECAP (2/2): THE FEDERAL RESERVE

Despite a 4.9% decline in sales, inventory remains low which

indicates a seller’s market.

Supply is especially tight for homes that are priced under $300,000.

The “Change” column shows increases/decreases over the past year.

Orlando home prices last peaked in July of 2007.

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$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

$125,000

$150,000

$175,000

$200,000

$225,000

$250,000

$275,000

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Me

dia

n H

om

e P

ric

e

June of Year

Orlando Housing Prices1997 -2017

source: My Florida MLS

Last update: June, 2016

OUR 2017 HOUSING MARKET (1/9): NOMINAL PRICES, INVENTORY, BUILDER CONFIDENCE

Change May

2017

May

2016

May

2015

Median

Home Price

+7% $218,000 $203,000 $181,000

Inventory

(months

supply)

-27% 2.30 3.15 3.79

Home

Builder

Confidence

+18% 71 60 59

Change May

2007

May

2006

May

2005

Median

Home Price

0% $250,000 $250,000 $223,845

Inventory

(months

supply)

+128% 14.59 6.40 1.16

Home

Builder

Confidence

-35% 33 51 75

The graph: inflation–adjusted home values for Orlando (In 2017 dollars).

Today’s prices are comparable to those of 2004.

Since July of 2011, the ORRA has reported year-over-year increases in median home values (a 71 month streak).

Among other factors, we will continue to monitor prices to determine our place in the current real estate cycle.

We are more interested in inventory because prices can be a lagging indicator.

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$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

$125,000

$150,000

$175,000

$200,000

$225,000

$250,000

$275,000

$300,000

$325,000

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Re

al

Ho

me

Pric

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rs)

June of Year

Real Housing Prices, Orlando1997 - 2017

source: My Florida MLS

Last update: June, 2016

OUR 2017 HOUSING MARKET (2/9): REAL PRICES (INFLATION-ADJUSTED)

Based on 400 survey responses from NAHB members.

Respondents asked to rate the current market conditions:

Sale of new homes

Prospective buyer traffic

Responses formulated into a confidence scale from 0 to 100.

Rising confidence indicates a shift towards a seller’s market, as well as expansion in the construction cycle.

Decline in regional home builder confidence may indicate a peak in our housing market. 7

https://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics

Last update: June, 2016

OUR 2017 HOUSING MARKET (3/9): NATIONAL BUILDER CONFIDENCE

*2017 is from May

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This measure is calculated by dividing the existing number of homes for sale by the

average number of sales per month.

The average figure for Orlando is 6 months of inventory.

At this level, the market is considered at equilibrium, and it would take 6 months to

deplete the market’s supply of real estate if no new homes were listed.

UPDATE:

As of May 2017, the Orlando market has 2.30 months of inventory, which is very

low. This data suggests that residential real estate is not overbought, and will likely

appreciate until inventory exceeds 7 months supply.

OUR 2017 HOUSING MARKET (4/9): REAL ESTATE INVENTORY, OVERVIEW

7 more months of inventory indicates an oversupply of real estate, which could lead to price

decreases in the Orlando Metro Market. 6 months is considered balanced for this market.

http://tinyurl.com/h5ncf6p Excess inventory signaled real estate devaluation on October, 2006

(There were 3 consecutive periods above 7 months supply).

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Hyp

er sup

ply

OUR 2017 HOUSING MARKET (5/9): REAL ESTATE INVENTORY, START OF HOUSING CRISIS

When inventory falls below 5 months of inventory, real estate is in short supply.

Prices are expected to rise.

Orlando Realtor Association – Monthly Sales & Inventory Reports

Low inventory signaled a recovery in real estate on June, 2011.

(There were 3 periods short of 5 months supply)

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Last updated: May, 2017

http://tinyurl.com/h5ncf6p

OUR 2017 HOUSING MARKET (6/9): REAL ESTATE INVENTORY, END OF HOUSING CRISIS

2.30 months of inventory on May, 2017 indicates a stable real estate market

in Orlando.

Given the tight supply of homes in the Orlando market,

it is expected that home prices will rise through 2018.

There is a strong negative relationship between housing inventory

and prices one year later (R = -0.814). 11

OUR 2017 HOUSING MARKET (7/9): REAL ESTATE INVENTORY

Supply

Excess

Short

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The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) measures whether the typical family could

qualify for a mortgage on a typical home.

Formula

HAI = Median Family Income / Qualifying Income * 100

If the HAI is less than 100%, home prices are overinflated and due for a correction.

OUR 2017 HOUSING MARKET (8/9): HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX, OVERVIEW

13http://tinyurl.com/yd9mfgnt

Updated Monthly

A value of 100% or less indicates that residential real estate is overvalued.

OUR 2017 HOUSING MARKET (9/9): HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX, LATEST UPDATE

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

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Ho

usin

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ffo

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ab

ilit

y (

%)

March of Year

Orlando Housing Affordability Index (HAI)

Ma

y, 2

01

7 –

143.2

%

10 year treasury rate – 2 year treasury rate

A measure of “monetary tightness”

What determines these rates?

10 year rate determined by the bond market

2 year rate set by the Federal Reserve

When the 2 year treasury yield exceeds that of the 10 year, the spread ‘inverts’.

An inversion of the yield spread results from:

The bond market forecasting a future downturn in the economy

Sale of 2 year treasury bonds, ↓ price & ↑ yield

Flight to 10 year treasury bonds, ↑ price & ↓ yield

The Fed raising short-term interest rates to control market conditions

(to fight inflation)

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BOND MARKET INDICATOR (1/3): 10-2 YEAR TREASURY SPREAD

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Shaded red

indicates U.S.

Recession.

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BOND MARKET INDICATOR (2/3): 10-2 YIELD SPREAD: DEC 2016

An inverted yield spread has

preceded the past five recessions.

1.33%

(12/22/2016)

1.33 %

0.25 %

If the spread falls below 0.25% (horizontal red line), a recession is expected in 2-3 years.

0.25 %

0.80%

(6/16/2017)

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BOND MARKET INDICATOR (3/3): 10-2 YIELD SPREAD: JUNE, 2017

0.80%

An inverted yield spread has

preceded the past five recessions.

If the spread falls below 0.25% (horizontal red line), a recession is expected in 2-3 years.

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OUR LABOR MARKET (1/3): EMPLOYMENT, OVERVIEW

An increase in unemployment often occurs in a recession, as seen in both the 2008 Great

Recession and The Great Depression of the 1930’s.

The U-3 unemployment is used in this report, which does not include discouraged and part

time workers. This figure is used because there is more historical data.

UPDATE:

• As of May 2017, the unemployment figure is still falling, which indicates that the

economy is still in its expansion phase.

• 5.2 million people are working part-time, but would prefer full time employment.

• 355,000 discouraged workers in May, down by 183,000 from last year.

• For recent college graduates (22 – 27 years old):

• 37.3% held a graduate degree

• 5.0% were unemployed

• 45.1% were underemployed

Historically, a rise in unemployment (3 consecutive months, year over year)

has indicated the start of a recession.

The Great Recession

Rising unemployment indicated a recession on April of 2001.

Falling unemployment indicated a recovery on February of 2004.

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OUR LABOR MARKET (2/3): EARLY 2000S RECESSION

In N

ovem

ber o

f 20

01

, NB

ER

decla

red

rece

ssion

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In J

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of 2

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ecla

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reco

very

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Na

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au

of E

con

om

ic Rese

arch

(NB

ER

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Da

tes

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4

1993 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5

1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5

1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6

1996 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4

1997 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7

1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4

1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0

2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9

2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7

2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0

2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7

2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4

2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9

Historically, a rise in unemployment (3 consecutive months, year over year)

has indicated the start of a recession.

The Great Recession

Rising unemployment indicated a recession on December of 2007.

Falling unemployment indicated a recovery on September of 2010.

OUR LABOR MARKET (3/3): THE GREAT RECESSION

In D

ece

mb

er o

f 20

08

, NB

ER

decla

red

rece

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(NB

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Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4

2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9

2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4

2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0

2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3

2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9

2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3

2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5

2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9

2013 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7

2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6

2015 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

2016 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.7

2017 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3

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National 9/2007 9/2008 5/2015 5/2016 5/2017

Employment to

Population Ratio62.9 61.9 59.4 59.7 60.0

Unemployment Rate 4.70% 6.1% 5.5% 4.7% 4.3%

Wages Growth 4.4% -3.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5%

Debt to GDP Ratio 61.83% 73.54% 102.07% 105.37% 105.87%

Orlando Real Estate 9/2007 9/2008 5/2015 5/2016 5/2017

Interest Rate

(30-Year Fixed)6.38% 6.04% 3.84% 3.60% 4.01%

Median Home Value $235,000 $181,995 $181,000 $203,000 $218,000

Median Home Value

Change from Previous

Year

-6% -23% +10% +12% +7%

Months Supply of

Inventory (LT Avg: 6)27.2 17.7 3.79 3.15 2.30

Home Builder

Confidence20 17 59 60 71

Orlando Home

Affordability Index92.40% 123.74% 182.67% 169.87% 143.20%

STATISTICS:NATIONAL & ORLANDO

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SUMMARY OF LEADING INDICATORSYOU MAY WANT TO KEEP THIS AT YOUR DESK.

Mar-17 4.5% Mar-17 5.0%

Apr-17 4.4% Apr-17 5.0%

May-17 4.3% May-17 4.7%

http://tinyurl.comjfayp5s

Housing inventory is our key indicator for the

residential market. In the coming years, look for

the supply of homes to exceed 7 months supply.

This will occur near the next peak in home prices.

http://tinyurl.com/zyq5xlx

Watch for 3 consecutive months of rising unemployment over the

three same months of the previous year (see above comparison).

This will confirm the beginning of our next recession.

Housing Inventory

May, 2017 2.30 months

May, 2017 143.2%

http://tinyurl.com/jfayp5s

Housing Affordability

Housing Affordability gauges the sustainability of

prices in our residential market. When this value

falls below 110%, home values are overextended

and likely to depreciate in the following 2-3 years.

General Economy Orlando Real Estate

U-3 Unemployment

Historically, an inversion of the 10 - 2 year treasury yield spread

has preceded the past 5 recessions. This inversion occurs when the

difference in yields becomes negative.

10Yr - 2Yr Treasury Yield

0.80%6/16/2017

http://tinyurl.com/h9e4ljh

SOURCES

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Orlando Regional Realtors Association

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The U.S. Census Bureau

The Congressional Budget Office

My Florida Regional MLS

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