un/esa/nasa/jaxa workshop on basic space science and the international heliophysical year 2007...
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UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 hosted by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Korea 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
11
AN ATTEMPT FOR FORECASTING OFSOLAR FLARE INDEX DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM
Ersin Tulunay (1), Atila Özgüç (2), Erdem Türker Şenalp (1), Tamer Ataç (2), Yurdanur Tulunay (3) and Saffet Yeşilyurt (2)
(1) Dept. of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, [email protected], [email protected]
(2) Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Res. Inst., Boğaziçi University, İstanbul, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
(3) Dept. of Aerospace Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, [email protected]
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2 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
2
CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. KOERI-FI-1
3. Data Organisation
4. Results
5. Conclusions
6. Acknowledgements
7. References
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3 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
INTRODUCTION
KOERI Group: calculate and issue observatory data
METU Group: specialized on data driven modelling since 1990’s
Background: data and models on key parameters of the Near Earth Space processes
Achievements: theoretical and experimental
This work mentions the forecast of Solar Flare Index (FI)
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4 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Solar activity processes- highly non-linear and time-varying.
Mathematical modeling based on first physical principles - extremely difficult if not impossible
In such cases, data driven models - i.e. Neural Networks
- very promising for using them in parallel to mathematical models
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5 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
The Solar Flare Index (FI) calculated and issued internationally by Kandilli Observatory, İstanbul
very important because of the increasing awareness of SpW situation and the effects of SpW on biological and technological systems operating on Earth and in the Near Earth Space
Forecasting of FI is an important achievement in forecasting of SpW situation
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6 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Solar Flare
Solar Flare: An enormous explosion in the solar atmosphere defined as a sudden, rapid and intense variation in brightness
Believed to result from the sudden release of energy stored in magnetic fields
[Atac, 2009]
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7 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Solar Flare Index (FI)
FI: A measure of the short-lived solar flare activity on the Sun
- Atac, 2009;- NASA, Solar Flare Theory;- Daily Solar Flares Images : Ondrejov Observatory
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8 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Solar Flare Index (FI)
To quantify the daily flare activity,
- Kleczek (1952) introduced the quantity
"Q = i x t "
"i" represents the intensity scale of importance and"t" the duration (in minutes) of the flare
Assumpion: The relationship gives roughly the total energy emitted by the flares
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9 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
In this work,
- NN based model KOERI-FI-1 is designed andoperated to forecast daily FI up to 27 days ahead
To the best knowledge of the authors,
- this is the first attempt to forecast FI
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10 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
1. Introduction
2. KOERI-FI-1
3. Data Organisation
4. Results
5. Conclusions
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11 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Background:
- Data driven models in parallel with physical models for the Near Earth Space processes
[e.g. E. Tulunay, 1991; Altinay et al., 1997; Y. Tulunay et al., 2001;Y. Tulunay et al., 2004a; Y. Tulunay et al., 2004b; E. Tulunay et al., 2004a; E. Tulunay et al., 2004b; E. Tulunay et al., 2006; Senalp et al., 2006; Y. Tulunay et al., 2008a; Y. Tulunay et al., 2008b; Senalp et al., 2008]
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12 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
KOERI-FI-1
KOERI-FI-1 is designed to forecast the FI values using a technique based on Neural Networks (NN)
- a data-driven modeling approach
- consists of - inputs, - neurons in hidden layer and - output layer
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13 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
KOERI-FI-1
Architecture: A two-layer feed forward NN
Algorithm in training: Levenberg-Marquardt Backpropagation
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14 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
1. Introduction
2. KOERI-FI-1
3. Data Organisation
4. Results
5. Conclusions
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15 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
FI Data
- The daily flare index for the 21, 22, and 23 st Solar Cyclesdetermined by using the final grouped solar flares compiled by the National Geophysical Data Center
- FI data: produced by Dr. T. Ataç and Dr. A. Özgüç, Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute
[Atac, 2009]
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16 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Inputs of the KOERI-FI-1
I/P Explaination Notation
1 Solar Flare Index observed at day ‘d’ FI(d)
2 Sunspot Area at day ‘d’ SA(d)
3 Sunspot Number at day ‘d’ SN(d)
4 RF(10.7) index at day ‘d’ RF(d)
5 Solar Flare Index observed at day ‘d-n’ FI(d-n)
6 Solar Flare Index observed at day ‘d-2n’ FI(d-2n)
7 Solar Flare Index First Difference (FD) FI(d) –FI(d-n)
8 Solar Flare Index Second Difference (SD) FD(d) – FD(d-n)
The output :
n days ahead forecast of the Solar Flare Index : FI(d+n)
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17 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Data Organisation
The data provided by KOERI are grouped in three sets:
Phase Data Coverage
Training 1 Jan 1988 – 31 Dec 1992
Validation during training 1 Jan 1978 – 31 Dec 1982
Validation during operation 1 Jan 1998 – 31 Dec 2002
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18 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
KOERI FI data for selected time intervals
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19 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
1. Introduction
2. KOERI-FI-1
3. Data Organisation
4. Results
5. Conclusions
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20 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Case Studies
Four different case studies have been performed by developing four different instances of the KOERI-FI-1
The case studies consider forecasting the FI ‘n’ days in advance as follows:
1 day in advance,
3 days in advance,
25 days in advance, and
27 days in advance
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21 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
RESULTS
The results cover the operation of the instances of the model between 1998 and 2002
The Mean Absolute Errors and the Cross Correlation Coefficients of the observed and forecast FI are presented for four of the case studies
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22 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
RESULTS
Performance of the KOERI-FI-1
considering FI, SA, SN and RF(10.7) at inputs;
and the Forecast FI at output
Error Table for 1, 3, 25 and 27 days ahead FI forecasts
1 day ahead
3 days ahead
25 days ahead
27 days ahead
Mean Absolute Error 4.92 5.20 7.38 6.92
Cross Corr. Coeff. (x 10-2) 42 26 10 8
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23 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Variation of observed and 1 day ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002
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24 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Variation of observed and 1 d ahead forecast FI in 10 Nov 2000 - 6 Sep 2001
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25 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Scatter diagram of observed and 1 d ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002
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26 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Variation of observed and 3 days ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002
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27 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Variation of observed and 3 d ahead forecast FI in 10 Nov 2000 - 6 Sep 2001
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28 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Scatter diagram of observed and 3 d ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002
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29 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Variation of observed and 25 days ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002
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30 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Scatter diagram of observed and 25 d ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002
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31 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Variation of observed and 27 days ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002
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32 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Scatter diagram of observed and 27 d ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002
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33 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
1. Introduction
2. KOERI-FI-1
3. Data Organisation
4. Results
5. Conclusions
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34 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
CONCLUSIONS
• Daily SpW related parameters observed during the time periods including the maxima of the 21st, 22nd and 23rd solar cycles were considered
• FI values have been forecast up to 27 hours in advance using the KOERI-FI-1
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35 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
CONCLUSIONS
• Short term forecast results are promising
• The cross-correlation coefficient values are higher and the mean absolute error values are smaller in the short-term forecasts (i.e. 1-d and 3-d in advance FI forecasts)
• The model learned the general shape of the inherent non-linearity
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36 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
CONCLUSIONS
• Considering the extreme FI values,
- The model forecasts the tendency towards an increase or decrease in value
- However, the forecast values are less accurate quantitatively
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37 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
CONCLUSIONS
• The extreme FI values are very rare;
• They do not provide enough representative information to the learning process
• Long-term forecasts in 25-d or 27-d ahead FI forecast case studies have low accuracy
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38 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
CONCLUSIONS
• In summary, in this work, the capability of forecasting FI values using a data driven model, KOERI-FI-1 has been shown
• To the best knowledge of the authors this has been the first attempt to forecast FI
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39 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
Acknowledgements
This work is partially supported by
• COST ES0803 Action
• COST 296 Action (MIERS) - TUBITAK-ÇAYDAG (105Y003)
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40 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar MaximumUN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
References
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