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    A socio-economic impact analysis ofnew ship deployments atNaval Station Mayport

    3 August 2012

    Prepared for Jim Hanson,City Manager, City of Atlantic Beach

    andMatt Schellhorn, Captain, USN retired

    Community Planning and Liaison Officer, US Navy Jacksonville

    By

    Jonathan Lynn, MPAand

    G.G. Candler, PhDDirector, UNF-MPA program

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    Table of Contents

    Executive summary 3

    Introduction 4

    History of NS Mayport 4

    Changing Dynamics at NS Mayport 6

    Impact on Local Communities 10

    Best Practices from Everett, WA & Watertown, NY 20

    Conclusion 22

    Works Cited 22

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    Executive summary

    A decade of economic fluctuation and uncertainty. The NS Mayport community and the Cityof Atlantic Beach (COAS) can expect a decade of economic fluctuation, with the currentdecommissioning of the frigate fleet, and some continued uncertainty about the arrival of thenew Littoral Combat Ships, the 2013-4 arrival of an Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), andespecially about the eventual (2020+) arrival of the CVN.

    Frigate decommissioning. In a process that began in 2006 and will end in 2015, NS Mayportwill see all of its FFGs decommissioned. This will take the consumption demand of some3000 sailors out of the local economy, and will result in an estimated contraction of the shipbuilding industry of over $100m annually between 2011-13.

    Amphibious Ready Group. The 2013-4 arrival of an Amphibious Ready Group will bring2000 additional sailors, who will help to lessen the severity of the impact of the loss of thefrigates, adding $60m+ in consumer demand, and $75m in annual ship repair contracts.

    Bow wave. The construction which will precede the arrival of the CVN has been estimated atover $400 million, with an overall economic impact of close to $700 million.

    CVN. A CVN at Mayport would bring with it approximately 3,000 personnel, withcomparable impacts on the local economy.

    Mayport Corridor redevelopment. The fluctuations brought about by the movements ofNavy ships will provide an opportunity for COAB to influence change in this area.

    Housing demand. Especially with the delayed arrival of the CVN, the decommissioningswill result in an at least medium term decrease in the Navy contribution to local housingdemand. This should turn around from 2015. The 70% of NS Mayport survey respondentswho live in civilian housing pay an average $1600 a month for housing costs. To the extentthat COAB and Beaches communities develop more housing options in this price range,more Navy personnel will live in the area.

    Consumption demand. We estimate that the average sailor adds about $30,000 in non-housing consumption demand to the local economy. Beaches residents spend far more in theBeaches cities than do others, and so again, Beaches communities can capture more of thebenefits of this spending through decisions that encourage more sailors to live in the area.

    Traffic and crime. It is likely that new ships in Mayport will have little negative impact oncrime and traffic. Both the professionalism and the discipline of the Navy have improveddramatically in recent decades, while both Wonderwood Drive and the redevelopment ofMayport Road have lessened traffic congestion.

    Local government services. The infrastructure and utilities of Atlantic Beach currently haveexcess capacity that is unlikely to be exceeded as a result of Navy deployments.

    Schools. Finnegan Elementary will face continued pressure until NS Mayport produces astudent population to sustain it. The local middle and high school should be unaffected.

    Best practice elsewhere. The cities of Everett, Washington and Watertown, New York aregood case studies for best practices of local government/ Navy relations. Both cities feature aproactive partnership between the public and private sector to engage their military bases andpromote shared interests.

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    Introduction

    This report was commissioned by the City of Atlantic Beach (COAB), Florida, to assess theimpact of the planned 2019 deployment of a CVN to Naval Station Mayport (NS Mayport). Asthe community closest to NS Mayport, Atlantic Beach expects a heavy impact from these moves;

    specifically along the Mayport Road Corridor, which is the main artery to the base. The CVNimpact has, though, been inextricably linked to other ship movements, and so the report hasexpanded to consider four related changes at NS Mayport:

    the decommissioning of the Guided Missile Frigates (FFG), the homeporting of additional ships, including an Amphibious Ready Group (ARG),

    additional destroyers, patrol craft and Littoral Combat Ships (LCS),

    the transfer of one nuclear aircraft carrier (CVN), now expected after 2020, and construction associated with the CVN.

    Beyond access to publicly available sources, data for this report was gathered throughdiscussions with various individuals involved with some of the projected impacts of Navy

    deployments, and also on a survey, conducted by the authors, of 195 Navy personnel in theJacksonville region.1 The overwhelming majority of respondents (184) were based at NSMayport, or on Mayport ships.

    History of Naval Station Mayport

    As shown in Figure 2, on the following page, Naval Station Mayport is a deep-water port locatedon 3,400 acres on the south bank of the mouth of the St. Johns River, 16 miles east of downtownJacksonville in Northeast Florida. NS Mayport is therefore bordered by the river to the north, theAtlantic Ocean to the east, the town of Atlantic Beach to the south, and the small village ofMayport to the west, which is part of the greater city of Jacksonville.

    Naval activity at the river mouth dates to the 1500s, but NS Mayport came about as a result ofthe 1938 Congressional authorization of the Hepburn Act, with its recommendation to establish amajor naval installation at the mouth of the St. Johns River. Doing so transformed the area froma sleepy fishing and recreational village to a modern military community. The base woulddisplace part of the village of Mayport, home to the resort community called Wonderwood-by-the-Sea; convert Ribault Bay from a haven for shrimpers and fishermen to a port for aircraftcarriers and destroyers; and change the popular Seminole Beach into a restricted access militaryfacility (Floyd 1994, p. 68; McGuinness 2010, pp. 131-48).

    1We used the Vovici online survey tool. The url to the website was emailed to sailors by the Navy, and the survey

    was open in February and March of 2012. The number and percentage of respondents by rank is shown in Table 1.The actual distribution of Navy ranks, according to the Defense Manpower Data Center (2012), is presented as well.

    Table 1 -- Rank distribution of survey respondentsE1-E3 E4-E6 E7-E9 O1-O2 O3-O5 O6-O8 Missing

    Number 16 88 45 6 29 5 6Percent 8.5 46.6 23.8 3.2 15.3 2.6 3.1Actual 25.1 49.4 8.8 4.3 11.1 1.1 ---

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    The base that emerged was constructed prior to and during the rapid mobilization of World WarII, and has grown to become the third largest Fleet Concentration Area in the US. It featuresberths capable of accommodating 34 ships, ship repair facilities, helicopter units, and an 8,000-foot runway that can handle any plane within the Department of Defenses inventory. Over the

    years, Mayport has been the homeport of many frigates, destroyers and cruisers, as well asaircraft carriers such as the USS Lake Champlain, USS Franklin D Roosevelt, the USS Saratogaand the USS John Fitzgerald Kennedy (Navy 1975).

    Figure 2Naval Station Mayport and surrounding area

    Source: Jacksonville University JROTC

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    Over the past 50 years, the footprint of Naval Station Mayport has increased, a fact that has had asignificant economic impact on the City of Atlantic Beach, the broader Beaches region (Mabry2010, pp. 115-6) and the City of Jacksonville. Because of the pleasant climate and relativelyaffordable standard of living in the region, NS Mayport is widely recognized as a duty station of

    choice for Navy personnel. Beyond the direct economic impact of Navy spending, the City ofAtlantic Beach benefits from this as many military retirees remain in the area and add their skillsand income to the local economy. Local consensus is that the base is a valuable asset for thecommunity (Schellhorn interview; Wyncoop 2010).

    A more recent, critical piece of the NS Mayport puzzle has been the desire of COAB to improvethe Mayport Road Corridor, which refers to both the road and the surrounding neighborhoodsand business community, and is the main artery to NS Mayport. This is shown as A1A on Figure2, and runs from Atlantic Blvd to the main gate of the base, denoted by the star. The Road hassix lanes separated by a median. Small and medium sized-businesses front the road on both sidesand residential communities, parks and light industrial complexes occupy the land adjacent to it.

    Especially important, the Mayport Road Corridor is an area of mixed jurisdiction between theCity of Atlantic Beach and the City of Jacksonville. As one turns north from Atlantic Boulevardonto Mayport Road, both sides of the road are initially part of Atlantic Beach. After abouttwenty blocks, at Dutton Island Road, one enters Jacksonville. This continues for less than aquarter of a mile, after which the west side of the road is part of Jacksonville, while the east sidepart of Atlantic Beach. Just short of the point where A1A splits northwest, both sides of the roadare in Jacksonville again, a situation which continues until the base is reached. This mixedjurisdiction greatly complicates development planning in the area.

    Changing Dynamics at NS Mayport

    The high, somewhat stable degree of activity that the base has traditionally enjoyed has changed.In 2006 the USS JFK was decommissioned, leaving Mayport without an aircraft carrier.Additionally, the Navy has begun to decommission its fleet of FFGs and CGs, many of which arebased at NS Mayport, creating a scenario where the number of NS Mayport ships will be reducedfrom 22 in 2006, to 12 by 2015. This ongoing process has had a dramatic effect on the area,transforming it from a relatively busy business corridor into what a local official termed, withperhaps a bit of over statement, a ghost town (Hatfield interview).

    As indicated, there are four large dynamics interacting over the next decade at NS Mayport andin the Mayport Road Corridor: the ship decommissionings, the arrival of the Amphibious ReadyGroup and other new ships, the CVN construction bow wave, and the arrival of the CVN. This

    section will summarize each of these events. It is also important to bear in mind that while manyof the negative impacts on the NS Mayport community are occurring now (the shipdecommissionings), the positive impacts have been less certain. The mid-June AmphibiousReady Group announcement firmed this up, but the decision on homeporting of the LCSs ispresumably subject to revision, and no firm decision has been taken on the CVN. Helpfully, theFlorida Times-Union (Brumley 2012) published a graphic summarizing the ebb and flow of

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    these movements prior to the just announced decision by the Secretary of the Navy to move upthe transfer of the Amphibious Ready Group. The data is presented in Table 3, below.

    Table 3Mayports future tenants projected, before ARG announcement

    January 2012Year 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2020Ships 22 19 15 16 12 12 14 18 20

    Personnel 6036 5017 4435 4063 2945 3946 4216 4756 5026Ships byclass

    1 CV13 FFG4 CG4 DDG

    11 FFG4 DDG4 CG

    8 FFG4 DDG4 CG

    6 FFG5 DDG3 CG3 PC

    3 FFG7 DDG3 PC

    6 DDG3 PC1 LSD1 LPD1 LHD

    6 DDG3 PC1 LSD1 LPD1 LHD2 LCS

    6 DDG3 PC1 LSD1 LPD1 LHD6 LCS

    6 DDG3 PC1 LSD1 LPD1 LHD8 LCS

    Ships lost 1 CV

    2 FFG3 FFG 2 FFG

    1 CG3 FFG3CG

    2 FFG1 DDG

    Ships gained 3 PC

    1 DDG

    2DDG 1 LSD

    1 LPH1 LHD

    2 LCS 4 LCS 2 LCS

    Source: Reformatted from Brumley 2012, with 2006 data added from NAVFAC 2008, p. 1.6.

    The key number is the year 2014 personnel total (in bold): 2945 shipboard sailors on 12 ships.This is down over 2000 from the year 2011, and 3000 from as recently as 2006. With the Juneannouncement of the earlier arrival of the ARG, the picture changes considerably, as shown inTable 4. Here, the bottom arrives a year later and, more important, at a much higher level of3946 (again in bold) ship-based sailors.

    Table 4

    Mayports future tenants projected, after ARG announcementJune 2012

    Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2020 2020+

    Ships 19 16 18 16 12 14 18 20 21

    Personnel 5017 4435 4423 4787* 3946 4216 4756 5026 8000+Ships by class 11 FFG

    4 DDG4 CG

    8 FFG4 DDG4 CG

    6 FFG5 DDG3 CG3 PC1 LPD

    3 FFG7 DDG3 PC1 LPD1 LHD1 LSD

    6 DDG3 PC1 LSD1 LPD1 LHD

    6 DDG3 PC1 LSD1 LPD1 LHD4 LCS

    6 DDG3 PC1 LSD1 LPD1 LHD6 LCS

    6 DDG3 PC1 LSD1 LPD1 LHD8 LCS

    1 CVN?6 DDG3 PC1 LSD1 LPD1 LHD8 LCS

    Ships lost

    3 FFG 2 FFG1 CG 1 CG 2 FFG1 DDG

    Ships gained 3 PC1 DDG1 LPD

    2 DDG1 LHD1 LSD

    2 LCS 4 LCS 2 LCS 1 CVN?

    Source: Derived from Brumley 2012Notes: * The personnel total for the year 2014 adds in the 1842 for the ARG indicated in NAVFAC 2008, p. 2.4.

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    Note that during the period that this report was being prepared the interplay of these fourdynamics has shifted dramatically. The FFG decommissionings began in 2006, and by way ofmore historical context, Navfac (2008, p. 1.6) reports a 2006 NS Mayport fleet of oneconventional aircraft carrier, 13 frigates, four cruisers, and four destroyers. As indicated in Table3, these contributed to over 6000 ship personnel in port. In a deeper historical context, even

    these 2006 numbers are well down on the recent peak year of 1987, when 37 ships, includingtwo conventional carriers, were homeported at NS Mayport. Note, too, that this report wasinitially commissioned by the City of Atlantic Beach to look at the impacts of the 2019 arrival(already pushed back from the earlier announced date of 2014) of a new CVN, with a BowWave of pre-arrival construction preceding this. With the FFG decommissionings, the Beacheseconomy faced a substantial, economically debilitating gap, with the FFGs and CGs gone, andthe CVN not expected for 5+ years. As shown in Table 3, Navy personnel at NS Mayport wouldhave dropped to 2945 in January 2014. This would have destroyed much of the local ship repairindustry, an increasingly critical component of a Navy bases operational readiness (Gibbons2010; Mabus 2012). Even with the arrival of the CVN, the local industry would feature a muchless stable economic environment, with no repair work being done when the CVN is at sea, dry-

    docking beyond the capacity of the Mayport ship repair industry and so done elsewhere, and alarge decrease in economic impact when 3000+ plus CVN sailors all deploy simultaneously.This would be much different from the more even impact of the current fleet of frigates,destroyers and cruisers.

    The 2019 projected arrival date of the CVN has since also been delayed by the Navy, citingfederal revenue shortfalls (Causey and Gibbons 2012), with this followed by news that anAmphibious Ready Group would be transferred to NS Mayport. Changes have continued rightup to the Friday, 15 June 2012 completion of a first final draft of this report, with a firmer, 2013announcement regarding the beginning of the Amphibious Ready Groups arrival, including theidentification of the ships (Navy News Service, 2012), and a tantalizing announcement that aNovember 2012 college basketball game would be played on a US Navy CVN at NS Mayport(Carlyon 2012), which might at least provide moral support for those looking for signs that theNavy still associates CVNs with NS Mayport.

    Decommissioning of existing ships

    The first of these changes is the decommissioning of much of NS Mayports current fleet. Forthe past 50 years the ship repair industry has felt more secure because the base has retained asubstantial fleet of homeported ships. The Department of Defense is in the process ofdecommissioning its aging fleet of frigates (FFGs) and replacing them with Littoral CombatShips (LCSs). As indicated in Figure 3, the number of FFGs homeported at NS Mayport isexpected to decline from eleven in 2011 to zero in 2015. Up until some months ago the localshipbuilding industry -- composed of three large companies (BAE, North Florida Shipyards andEarl Industries) and many medium and small companies -- faced decimation as a result. Theship-repair industry that serves the naval vessels home ported at Mayport is a highly specializedone. The required standards for naval ships exceed those for commercial vessels, whichtranslates into high-paying jobs for specialized craftsmen such as pipefitters and welders. Navyships are unique beyond the standard of work they require. These are sent on long deployments

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    in a demanding saltwater environment. They require extensive repair work both before and afterdeployment. The ship-repair business is cyclical because some ships only get major repairs everythree to five years. Typically, the exterior of the ship is sandblasted, cleaned and repainted whilethe components such as the electrical and power systems are repaired or upgraded.

    The ship-repair industry is heavily reliant on business from NS Mayport and in turn, supportsmuch of the small business activity in the Mayport Corridor. While the expected arrival of aCVN after 2019 will be a major boost for the local economy, the repair work the CVN provideswill not be enough to offset the work lost via the decommissionings, while the Jacksonvilleregion will be unable to drydock the CVN. As well, with repair work on more, smaller ships thiswork was spread more evenly through the year. However maintaining the carrier will feature aboom/bust cycle, with no work to be done while the ship is at sea.

    Amphibious Ready Group and other new ships

    Despite all of this change and uncertainty, the recent announcement of the transfer of an

    Amphibious Ready Group to NS Mayport will help this situation considerably. Indeed, NavySecretary Ray Mabus made a point of noting that those three ships will take about $75 million ayear to maintenance and repairwork that can be done here at the waterfront (Browing 2012). The ARG includes three amphibious ships, which are some of the Navys largest2, and will bringapproximately 2,000 sailors.

    Also coming to Mayport are three new destroyers, eight Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) and threepatrol craft. While the time-line of the others is not finalized, the ships are expected between2013-2020 (Brumley, 2012). For the purposes of the current ship repair industry, even theaddition of the LCSs will help the industry relatively little, as these newer, very different vesselswill require much less repair work, at least in the medium term. There may be an opportunityhere for the local ship repair industry, as if this is the naval warship of the future, the Mayportindustry could get in on the ground floor.

    CVN

    Naval Station Mayport has enjoyed a long history, which includes the home porting of multipleaircraft carriers. This changed as of 2007 with the decommissioning of the USS John F Kennedy,and the base has been without a carrier since. This will change with the 2009 decision by the USNavy to home port a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier at NS Mayport. However, the currentprojection is that the CVN will not arrive at NS Mayport until after 2019.

    2 For instance, of the ships in the process of decommissioning, the Navys online Fact File (http://www.navy.mil/ )lists crew sizes of 215 for the Perry class FFG, 276 for the Arleigh-Burke class DDG, and 364 for the Ticonderogaclass CG. While there are fewer of the expected new arrivals, they have larger crews. On 15 June the Secretary ofthe Navy identified the three ships as the USS New York (LPD 21), USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7), and USS FortMcHenry (LSD 43). The Wasp class LHD has a crew of 1070, the San Antonio class LPD, and the Whidbey Islandclass LSD 413. The other projected arrivals are much smaller. The LCSs have core crews of under 100, while thepatrol craft have crews of 30.

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    When the CVN arrives, it will bring with it approximately 3,000 personnel and their dependentsto the area, which will have a significant impact on the Mayport Corridor. It is highly likely thatthe air wing will come from Virginia, much like it did with the USS JFK. The impact from theCVN is comparable to that of conventionally-powered carriers like the JFK, as CVNs generallyhave the same crew-size as traditional carriers with the exception of the engineering department,

    which is smaller and more sophisticated. The rotation for a CVN entails roughly a six monthdeployment, one month post deployment, six months in which calls are maintained, followed bysix months of training new personnel (Navfac 2008, p. 2.4.2; Schellhorn interview; O'Rourke2011, p. 8).

    Bow Wave

    The bow wave refers to the construction activities that will precede the arrival of the CVN, andare necessary for its home porting. Before a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier can be home portedat Naval Station Mayport, specific infrastructure must be in place. That includes on-baseconstruction of road infrastructure and additional parking structures, dredging (and dredged

    material disposal) of the basin in which the CVN will dock, the installation of Type III heavyweather moorings, improvements to Wharf F to provide berthing which includes upgrading shorepower utility systems, and the construction of CVN nuclear propulsion plant facilities. Theseconsist of three main components: the Controlled Industrial Facility, Ship Maintenance Facilityand Maintenance Support Facility. To make space for these facilities, some ship repair facilitiescurrently located on base will need to be relocated to the Mayport Road Corridor (Navfac 2008).Note that this bow wave effect of pre-deployment construction applies only to the CVN, not theamphibious ships, which can be treated by the existing facilities with less new infrastructure.

    The initial $400+ million in military construction projects associated with the bow wave willeventually have an impact of approximately $700 million and 7000+ jobs, for about four yearsprior to the arrival of the CVN. Prior to the recent delay in the arrival date for the CVN, theseactivities had begun at NS Mayport, and were to run concurrently with the decommissioning ofnaval ships at Mayport, leading to a period in which the construction sector of the Mayporteconomy was growing, while ship repair another was contracting (O'Rourke, 2011, p. 9). Theseactivities have been delayed, however, given the uncertain arrival date of the CVN.

    Impact on Local Communities

    This section will summarize the impact of the decommissionings, the new deployments, the bowwave, and the arrival of the CVN on the local community. The summary will cover a 10 yeartime-span from the present until the CVN arrives.

    The Mayport Road Corridor (MRC) is an area of mixed jurisdiction between the City of AtlanticBeach and the City of Jacksonville. While both municipalities are responsible for services, it isthe City of Atlantic Beach that carries the weight for improving the area, because it is a smallcity and the MRC is a relatively large part of it. This contrasts to the City of Jacksonville, whichhas a large land area of which the MRC only represents a small, outlying part. Strategically, theCity of Jacksonville is concentrating its development energies toward Cecil Field, a former

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    Naval Air Station to the west of Jacksonville, and its downtown business district, rather thanMayport. In this dynamic, if the conditions of the area are to improve, it will be the City ofAtlantic Beach that will facilitate the process. The process of improving the area is difficultbecause many of the factors that drive the conditions of the Mayport Road Corridor are beyondthe control of Atlantic Beach. Still, while the power of local governments has limits, there are

    ways the city can act on conditions it seeks to improve. The areas identified for improvement bythe City of Atlantic Beach are housing quality, business quality, crime, and communityengagement.

    Economic impact of Naval Personnel

    The economic impact of Navy personnel on the broader Jacksonville community is considerable.A COJ website, for instance, provides the following estimate of local 2008 defense spending.

    Table 5Defense spending in Duval County for FY 2008

    Type Total spending ($m)Procurement 794.7Salaries 737.3Pensions and transfers 860.4

    Total 2,392.4Source: COJ (undated)

    Estimates for the annual economic impact in the broader seven county region are just over $3b(Harper, Pooley and Scheibe 2011, p. 43). In a region of about 1.4 million people, thisrepresents about $2200 in direct economic impact per capita; and in a regional economy of about$60b (BEA 2010), this represents about 5% of gross regional product. For the non-economist,

    this means that about five cents of every dollar spent on the First Coast is derived from the Navypresence. The same source estimates that there are about 30,000 Navy personnel in Jacksonville,so a simple back-of-the-envelope indication of the direct economic impact of Navy personnelsuggests that about $80,000 is pumped in to the local economy for each additional sailorstationed in Duval County.

    A 2006 estimate put the economic impact of NS Mayport at approximately $1.8 billionannually, which includes payroll, goods and services purchased in the local community, andpayments to the military retiree population (Navfac 2008, p. 3.144). This is probably an under-estimate, to the extent that it is based on an assumption that the average annual wage for shipspersonnel is $20,000 (Navfac 2008, 4.122). Using military pay scales, we find the average base

    pay for the lowest enlisted ranks (E-1 to E-3) to be about $20,000, this is without BasicAllowance for Housing (BAH) or Basic Allowance for Subsistence (BAS), which adds well over$1000 a month in purchasing power to personnel living off base which, as we show below,includes about 70% of NS Mayport sailors.

    For the Beaches communities, though, much depends on where that spending occurs and,intuitively (and as will be seen, this will be borne out by the data that follows), Navy personnel

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    who live in the Beaches will spend more in the Beaches, not to mention contribute to Beacheshousing demand, and so rising property values. As shown in Table 6 below, about half of thesample lives in the Beaches community, though about half of these (a quarter of the wholesample) live in Navy housing.

    Table 6Place of residenceLocation Number Percent

    Atlantic Beach 18 9.3Neptune Beach 2 1.0Jacksonville Beach 14 7.2Mayport 5 2.6Ponte Vedra 3 1.5Wonderwood area 9 4.6Other off-base 86 44.3Navy housing 48 24.7

    Not specified 10 5.1Total 195 100.0

    The large majority of the sample, about 70%, lives in off-base civilian housing. Equallyimportant for housing demand, over half of those who responded owned their own Jacksonville-area home. This is shown in Table 7.

    Table 7Type of off-base housing

    Number Percent

    Apartment 32 16.4

    Own condo 4 2.1Own house 73 37.4Rented condo 3 1.5Rented house 20 10.3Trailer 3 1.5Not specified 60 30.8

    A second factor influencing the impact of Navy personnel on the local economy is the number ofdependents. Of the respondents, 133 reported that they were married, and 108 reported childrenin their Jacksonville residence, for an average of just under two children per household, or anaverage of about one child per service member. The large majority of families report that their

    dependents will remain in Jacksonville when the service member deploys. Along with spouses,there are about 1.7 dependents for each service member.3 As a result, while deployment will

    3 This is higher than that done by Navfac in 2008 (p. 4.119-120), which estimated about 0.55 spouses, and 0.65children for each service member. Given the over-representation of officers and Chief Petty Officers in our sample,Navfac may be more accurate.

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    obviously see some economic impact, the economic impact of new Navy personnel shouldremain relatively stable through the deployment cycle4, as dependents remain.

    A better estimate of total purchasing power is provided by total income which, as we suggestabove, can be determined by adding up base pay, BAH and BAS. Navy personnel not provided

    government housing receive a Basic Allowance for Housing, which varies from about $900 to$1200 for most enlisted personnel, and $1200 to $1600 for most officers. A Basic Allowance forSubsistence is about $350 per month for enlisted personnel, and $240 for officers5.

    Factoring in BAH and BAS, total income is presented in Table 8 below. In the table we combinethese three factors, for each member of the dataset, depending on rank, housing location (onlypersonnel living off base are eligible for BAH), and dependent status. This provides averagemonthly personal income for each rank grouping as shown.

    Table 8Total monthly ($) income by rank

    E1-E3 E4-E6 E7-E9 O1-O2 O3-O5 O6-O8 TotalNumber 16 87 45 6 29 5 188Mean 2153 3847 6073 4469 7918 12770 5121Median 2025 4218 6511 4661 8115 12770 4218

    By way of a broad summary: when the sample is re-weighted to adjust for the over-representation of senior enlisteds and officers in our sample (as we report in Table 1), on averageeach additional sailor earns gross annual income of just under $4200 a month, or just over$50,000 per year. Considering the tax free nature of BAH and BAS, and the average number ofdependents indicated above, income after federal taxes is likely to be about $47,000. Given thehigh percentage of sailors with family who live locally, it is likely that most of that purchasing

    power is exercised in the Jacksonville region.

    Our survey suggests that how much of that spending remains at the Beaches is criticallydependent on whether the service member lives in the Beaches. Housing rented or purchasedelsewhere will, of course, contribute to stabilizing housing prices (and so public revenues)elsewhere. This is shown in Table 9. This is not adjusted for the un-representative nature of thesample, so should be seen as at least 20% higher than the actual figures.

    Not surprisingly, spending in the beaches area is far higher for those Navy personnel who live inthe Beaches area. As a result, the Beaches region, and COAB in particular, will benefit more tothe extent that it can attract more sailors to live in the region.

    4 NAVFAC (2008, p. 1.6) reports that NS Mayport ships remain in port about 73% of the time.5 This data was gathered from www.military.com.

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    Table 9Spending patterns per respondent, by type of spending per month ($)

    Beaches residents Navy housing Others Off-base

    combinedTotal Beaches Total Beaches Total Beaches Total

    Housing 1651 n/a 1639 1643

    Food 534 226 253 153 473 79 489Restaurants 145 65 101 69 202 69 202Bars 65 57 24 3 37 14 45Hotels 6 0 10 10 9 2 8Entertainment 82 47 83 53 101 21 95Charity 43 11 55 29 110 12 96

    The Table also indicates average monthly spending per respondent on food, restaurants, bars,

    hotels, entertainment and charity. As an example, Beaches residents spend $534 per month onfood, of which $226 occurs at the beaches. Non-Beaches residents spend $473 per month onfood, of which only $79 is spent at the Beaches.

    Housing Demand

    The preference of the majority of Navy personnel is to live on base because of its manyamenities and close proximity to the beach. Given the high demand, there is usually a shortage ofbase housing. Indeed, as of the writing of this report, there were 1,800 families on the waiting listfor on-base housing. This shortage is exacerbated by the recent remodeling of base housing thathas cut in half on-base housing capacity. As a result, a substantial number of Navy personnel live

    off-base even though the population decrease due to changes at NS Mayport will lessen thedemand for on-base housing.

    Table 10Rank and housing spending

    Rank Number Median Mean

    E1 to E3 2 1000 1000E4 to E6 52 1500 1579E7 to E9 24 1750 1633O1 to O2 4 838 919O3 to O5 20 2100 2360

    O6 to O8 3 3500 3000Total 105 1500 1745*Note: not adjusted for the unrepresentative sample.

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    As shown in Table 10, our survey shows that Navy personnel are contributing considerably morethan their BAH in paying for housing6. There are also clear differences in housing costs indifferent regions. The average cost of housing is highest in Atlantic Beach, at $2130 a month forthe 14 respondents living in the community. Jacksonville Beach costs were considerably lower,at just under $1500 a month, and personnel living in other areas averaged $1740. Multivariate

    regression analysis showed that the 1/3

    rd

    of families with working spouses allowed these familiesto afford on average over $300 a month more in housing costs.

    Purchasing power then needs to be contrasted with housing cost. An online realty source7estimates median housing prices for Atlantic Beach and Jacksonville Beach at about $240,000through the end of March, 2012. At current interest rates, median Beaches housing prices areaffordable, given average Navy purchasing power. However, either the inevitable rise of interestrates, and/or especially the likely rise in housing prices, will change this equation dramatically.How much, and whether most Navy personnel can afford to purchase homes in the Beaches, willdepend on decisions taken by cities and developers at the Beaches.

    A final point worth noting is that the Navy has gotten much better at providing personnel (andtheir families) with greater geographic stability. Rather than transferring personnel betweenVirginia, Florida, California, Washington and elsewhere; an effort is now made to allow familiesto put down roots in one of these regions. While ships will still deploy, personnel will still dooverseas shore duty, and the needs of the Navy will take priority, home ownership is morefeasible than has been the case in the past.

    There are a wide variety of housing options close to the base in the MRC, including manyapartments, houses to rent and houses to buy. An example of existing housing available for Navypersonnel is the Royal Palm neighborhood, which consists of easy-to-expand, single floor,concrete block homes which rent for $800-$1000, or sell for $70-$100,000. Habitat forHumanity has programs available to home owners in the MRC in which owners who occupytheir residence may receive a zero-interest loan of $7,000 for home repair, and $12,000 for majorrepairs of roofs, plumbing and electricity.

    In short, the developments at NS Mayport have contributed to a medium-term overall decreasefor housing demand. In the past, Navy personnel generally would live in the MRC, the beachescommunities or over the Intracoastal Waterway on Atlantic Blvd. Now, however, much of thedevelopment that would have occurred in the MRC may occur across the Intracoastal Waterwayvia the Wonderwood Expressway, which makes this a convenient commute from Mayport(Navfac 2008, p. ES.6.9; Schellhorn interview; Carper interview; Hatfield interview).

    The improvement of existing housing in the MRC is a goal of the City of Atlantic Beach. One ofthe ways it is acting to improve this is by code enforcement. For example, code stipulates thathomes have clean yards with no vehicles, no chain link fences and no more than two unrelatedindividuals allowed in apartments. Coordination with code enforcement and developmentbetween Atlantic Beach and Jacksonville is not optimal. This is likely due to different ordinances

    6 The small number of Ensigns and Lieutenant Junior Grades excepted.7 http://www.zillow.com/

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    and a lack of resources (Thompson interview). As a result, whatever efforts Atlantic Beachmakes to prevent the deterioration of housing stock along its side of Mayport Road, might provefutile if Jacksonville code enforcement allows run down properties on its side of the road. Thisdynamic produces suboptimal results in an area that could become an attractive place with aconcentrated and sustained effort to re-incentivize, renew and polish up the area. While the

    condition of some of the housing is less than ideal, it is relatively good when compared to otherareas of Jacksonville (Doerr interview). Still, COAB has sought to maintain a reputation as anattractive, higher end community, and would like to raise the quality of the MRC closer to thelevel of the rest of the city. However, in the absence of all COJ land north of Atlantic Boulevardand east of the Intercoastal Waterway being transferred to COAB, or much more attentivecooperation from COJ, these inter-jurisdictional inconsistencies will remain a challenge forCOAB.

    Economic Impact of the Ship Repair Industry

    The typical ship-repair economic impact starts with the Navy making a contract with a primary

    contractor who then makes purchases from suppliers and subcontractors. Households of all theselayers then purchase everyday goods, which spreads the impact throughout the community.Table 11, below, illustrates the impacts of the frigate decommissionings on both the ship repairindustry and the community in which it exists. As indicated, DoD has announced the deploymentof a number of ships to NS Mayport especially from 2013, but the estimates below provide anindication of the economic impact of the decommissionings in the absence of new ships. Directimpact refers to the activity that the industry takes itself (i.e., material purchase and employees),indirect impact refers to business-to-business support transactions, and induced impacts are thehousehold spending by employees of the firms. The geographic area included in these numbersincludes the six counties of Northeast Florida (Nassau, Baker, Clay, Duval, Putnam and St.Johns) where the ship repair industry is located. The majority of businesses are concentrated inthe Mayport Road Corridor, which is where the greatest impact will be felt.

    Table 11Economic impacts of Mayport ship repair facilities

    Direct Indirect Induced Total

    Output effect ($m)2010 148.6 61.7 55.1 265.52011 104.4 43.2 38.5 186.12012 67.0 27.6 24.5 119.1Labor income ($m)2010 38.1 21.0 17.5 76.6

    2011 26.6 14.7 12.2 53.52012 17.0 9.4 7.8 34.1Employment2010 517 403 449 13702011 353 275 306 9352012 220 171 191 582

    Data source: Wynkoop 2010

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    Local Government

    The impact on local government will be twofold: in the short term revenues from the area anddemand for services will decrease and the challenge of improving the conditions of the MayportRoad Corridor will increase because of the reduced economic impact which NS Mayport

    provides.

    COAB officials report that the infrastructure, utilities and public works of Atlantic Beach havean excess capacity that likely will not be needed. Ironically, the customer service aspect of localgovernment may become easier as some Navy personnel have historically been less than idealcustomers, and occasionally skip out on, or not pay, their bills on reassignment.

    COAB revenues are beyond the scope of this paper. The 2008 Navfac study estimated local percapita tax contributions of Navy personnel at $1181 (p. 4.125). However this figure would becritically dependent on housing prices, and certainly for COAB, how much of this spendingoccurs in the Beaches region.

    Schools

    There are three schools that serve dependents of NS Mayport personnel: Fletcher High School,Mayport Middle School and Finnegan Elementary School. While Fletcher High and MayportMiddle both service children of Navy families, they make up only a small percentage of the totalstudent population. This stands in contrast to Finnegan Elementary, whose back gate leads intoMayports on-base housing, and has a large majority of students who are dependents of Navypersonnel. The Navys 2008 impact statement, for instance, estimates that while 1% of studentsat Fletcher High School are Navy dependents, 37% of Finnegan elementary students are (Navfac2008, p. 3-150). Depending on the firmness of the recent announcements regarding shipdeployments, in the absence of new ships it was also the school in the greatest danger of closing.Finnegan saw its highest enrollment figures in 1985, and enrollment has been declining since.This trend accelerated in 2006 with the decommissioning of the USS JFK and continues to thepresent day. The school avoided being closed during the Duval County Schools budget cuts of2009 because of a concerted effort by both the local civilian and military community.

    Prior to the expected arrival of the Amphibious Ready Group, there were proposals to mothballFinnegan Elementary until the base population rebounds, however this is not an optimalscenario. Over decades of serving students from military families, Finnegan has developed anenvironment and culture that is unique in its orientation towards the military, which is thepriority for the school. Approximately 85% of the staff has a connection with the base, whichequips them with a specialized skill set to effectively teach dependents of military families. Thisis especially important in a time when multiple wars and military commitments around the worldhave required longer tours and exert greater pressures on military families. The concern is thatwhile the physical facility can be preserved until a later date, mothballing the school would resultin the loss of the staff and the other intangible elements that have been so successful in educatingthe children of military families (Chew interview; Carper interview).

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    More broadly, our survey of Navy personnel provides an estimate of the impact of Navypersonnel numbers on local schools. Some 70% of respondents were married, and 55% reportedchildren in their Jacksonville residence, with an average of about two children per household.28% were in kindergarten or younger, 36% in primary school (grades 1-5), 13% middle school(grades 6-8), and 14% high school. Nine percent attended college. Put differently, for every 100

    Navy personnel stationed in Jacksonville, about 100 children will also be added to the areaspopulation. 36 will be in primary school, 13 middle school, and 14 in high school. Nine willattend college, and the remainder will be pre-school age.

    Traffic

    Through much of NS Mayports history, traffic along Mayport Road was a common complaint.These problems are unlikely to be repeated on the arrival of a CVN after 2019, however. Impactwould be localized, short term and on-station (Navfac 2008, pp. 31-32). As shown in Figure 2,the Wonderwood Expressway, which was opened in 2008, heads west from the main gate of thebase across the Intercoastal Waterway to residential areas. Coupled with a wider Mayport Road,

    this will mitigate excessive traffic congestion caused by the home porting of the nuclear aircraftcarrier and its associated bow wave (Carper interview). Data provided in the Naval FacilitiesEngineering Command economic impact analysis of a proposed CVN move to Mayportespecially notes how the opening of the Wonderwood Expressway resulted in average annualdaily traffic (AADT) counts dropping buy 5-10,000 vehicles on Mayport Road, as Wonderwoodhas absorbed some 20,000 vehicles per day (Navfac 2008, pp. 3.127-129; see also 4.100-103). Itshould be noted, though, that the Navfac study projected traffic loads with the addition of CVNand ARG traffic, and projected natural growth in traffic through 2014. The report did not extendthe analysis to 2020: adding CVN and ARG traffic to 2020 projected natural growth.

    Business Quality

    Atlantic Beach officials have also expressed a desire to bring in new business both in the MRC,and along Atlantic Boulevard, a major retail district which Mayport Road intersects, and whichforms the southern boundary of Atlantic Beach. Both Atlantic Boulevard and Mayport Roadcurrently have a number of vacant retail spaces. The desired type of businesses are family-oriented restaurants and service establishments, as opposed to dive bars and strip clubs, which doexist in the MRC, but are out of Atlantic Beachs control in Jacksonvilles jurisdiction. AtlanticBeach has zoning codes in place to discourage these types of establishments. For example,establishment of bars require extensive bureaucratic red tape including two hearing processesand recommendation from the zoning board. These requirements do not extend to restaurantswhich can serve beer and liquor by right. Adult entertainment is not allowed in Atlantic Beachper zoning code (Doerr interview).

    We also surveyed respondents regarding commercial establishments they would like to see movein to the Mayport Road, and Atlantic Beach areas. Of the 108 who responded, over 20 requestedsit-down restaurants, and another 16 more fast food establishments of various sorts. Nine wanteda department store (i.e. Target or WalMart), eight a movie theater, and seven each a grocery andcoffee shop. Twenty were happy with the current line-up of stores.

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    Crime

    Fears of crime associated with Navy personnel have long been a cultural stereotype, and havebeen expressed by a small number of Atlantic Beach officials. In 2008, the City of Atlantic

    Beach began dedicating extra resources to improve the security of the MRC. These effortsinclude bike patrols, crime tracking and the identification and engagement of problem areaswhere drugs, prostitution, gun use and street crime were of high frequency. Concurrently, JSOincreased its presence by dedicating two full-time Community Oriented Police (COPS) officers.Coordination with JSO created a systematic approach that unified the law enforcement effort.The ABPD also began working with JSO and NCIS by conducting monthly drug and prostitutionsweeps. Aside from direct crime fighting, the law enforcement groups are also engaged incommunity events and at community centers as a way to connect with citizens and foster a senseof community (Thompson interview; COAB 2008; COAB 2009).

    The modern American Navy puts a heavy emphasis on the quality of personnel it recruits into its

    ranks and, once there, expects a high level of decorum. The Navy has a Zero Tolerance drugpolicy and all Navy personnel are subject to random drug testing and inappropriate behaviors arenot tolerated in the Navy. Navy personnel are subject to Courts-Martial as well as non-judicialpunishment which could result in various forms of punishment and/or discharge for behavior thatis incompatible with the naval service (Carper interview; Schellhorn interview; Thompsoninterview; Hatfield interview).

    Community Engagement

    Community engagement refers to both the formal and informal organizing of citizens intogroups to improve the quality of life in their community. Examples include baseball leagues,community watch organizations, clean-up projects, and pickup basketball games at a park. TheCity of Atlantic Beach created the position of Mayport Coordinator to facilitate the creation ofthe groups. While this position has been effective, the greatest challenge will be to make thesegroups self-sustaining so that the position of Mayport Coordinator is no longer necessary.

    To foster community groups, the City has been organizing community activities such as theDonner Park baseball field expansion, community/ public art projects at parks, and movies in thepark. After-school programs have been developed such as Project Acceleration, in which localstudents receive assistance on their science fair projects from COPS officers and othervolunteers. City beautification projects such as streetscapes use donated plants for street corners,which citizens water and maintain as a way to improve the aesthetics of the area. Understandingthat the codes in place are difficult to comply with for some citizens, the city organizesvolunteers from local churches, schools, the Navy and community associations to help bringproperties up to code (Hatfield interview).

    It is also important to note here the contribution of Navy personnel through their communityengagement. Our survey indicated that 40% of respondents donated to local charities, at a

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    median monthly amount of $50. Forty percent volunteer locally, about 20% of these eight hoursor more per week, and 40% also attend off-base houses of worship.

    The Business Community

    Coordination within the Mayport area business community has been weak. The broader Beachesarea is represented by the Beaches Division of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, and theJacksonville Area Ship Repair Association provides effective representation for this influentialindustry. A Mayport Village Civic Association has also been active in Mayport Village itself,especially around the issues of revitalization of the village, and saving the Mayport Ferry, whichconnects Mayport to the north side of the St. Johns River. However the Mayport Corridor lackssimilar collective voice and representation. This may be due in part to the small, shifting natureof the local retail community, in part to the inter-jurisdictional nature of the Mayport RoadCorridor, with COJ and COAB sharing jurisdiction. A current development has beencoordination between the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Jacksonville EconomicDevelopment Commission (JEDC) and the UNF Small Business Development Center (Bryan

    interview; Hanson interview).

    Best Practices from Everett, WA & Watertown, NY

    One of the goals of this report is to identify other communities which are in close proximity tomilitary bases, and experience the cyclical economic impacts of large unit deployments, to assessthe ways in which they maximize the economic impact of the military. Everett, WA andWatertown, NY are two such communities. They were chosen due to their size in relation to theirproximate military base and the relative size of the bases economic impact.

    Everett, WA

    The city of Everett, Washington is home to Naval Station Everett, the homeport of twodestroyers, three frigates, two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, and a Coast Guard buoy tender.There are about 6,000 Sailors and Civil Service persons assigned to commands located at NavalStation Everett. The naval station itself has about 350 Sailors and Civilians assigned (Navy).The base and surrounding area is therefore somewhat smaller, though similar to NS Mayport andthe Beaches. That is, the base is the dominant economic driver in the area. The City of Everett,its business community and citizens use practices to foster a positive relationship with the base tospur economic development, which Atlantic Beach and the surrounding municipalities couldmodel. Examples are as follows:

    The business community and City Hall facilitate the adoption of homeported ships,whereby send off and welcome back deployment events are staged and supportoperations are conducted.

    The Mayor meets with the Base Commander regularly in both business and socialsettings.

    The city has an Executive Director of Government Affairs, which features a continuousdirect relationship with base command.

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    The Chamber of Commerce has a Naval Affairs Committee which takes the lead on off-base development and on-base outreach events, like the annual state-of-the-StationAddress event.

    The Navy League8 provides guidance to the business community An Energy Roundtable, composed of local businesses, universities, and energy

    companies, meet to discuss how they can meet the Navys needs. The Economic Alliance of Snohomish County performs a function similar to the

    Jacksonville Economic Development Corporation.

    Everett officials also noted that during a recent trip to Washington, DC, it was suggested that thecommunities around NS Mayport and NS Everett should work together to promote theirinterests, as they have a similar dynamic as smaller homeports facing competition from the muchlarger San Diego and Norfolk.

    Watertown, NY

    The City of Watertown, NY is in close proximity to Fort Drum, the home of the US Armys 10

    th

    Mountain Division. Examples of community relationships with the Army include: Fort Drum Regional Liaison Organization (http://fdrlo.org/) is a nonprofit organization

    whose mission is, To foster effective communication, understanding and support byserving as the primary point of coordination and advocacy for resolution of those issuesof mutual interest of the military and civilian community of the Fort Drum region. TheFDRLO also funds studies, for example, a transit study to determine how to get thesoldiers to downtown more easily (Woolfolk 2011).

    Watertown features an active public affairs office. The fire department does about 8000 annual inspections of rental properties. There is an intentional push to foster an environment of respect and understanding for the

    members of the Army stationed at Fort Drum. For example, local stores and restaurantsoffer military discounts, the local newspaper has a section called MilitaryMatters thatcovers military news, and the local chamber of commerce puts out a few seasonalpublications that are geared toward military members (Nelson interview).

    8Jacksonvilles equivalent is available online, at: http://www.nljax.com/index.html.

    http://fdrlo.org/http://fdrlo.org/http://fdrlo.org/http://fdrlo.org/http://fdrlo.org/http://fdrlo.org/http://fdrlo.org/
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    Conclusion

    This report has detailed the changes at Naval Station Mayport and their effect on the MayportRoad Corridor. In sum, until the arrival of the CVN the reduction of the footprint of NS Mayportwill result in a smaller economic impact on the MRC, COAB, and broader Beaches region, at

    least in terms of experience of the past decade. In this environment, decreased demand forhousing, fewer customers for local businesses and reduced tax revenue for local governmentshould be expected. This will likely be compounded by the national slowdown in economicactivity.

    The announced arrival of the Amphibious Ready Group, along with some other ships, will helpmaintain the ship repair industry and the economic activity it creates, and also mark theturnaround in the Navys economic impact on the region. While there is little that the City ofAtlantic Beach can do in the short term to change this scenario, city government can use thistime to prepare the soil by strengthening fundamental policies and practices so that as the post-2015 rebound begins, when the CVN does come and the national economy begins to grow again,

    the MRC will be fertile ground from which new growth can spring.

    Works Cited

    BEA (2010). Current-Dollar GDP by Metropolitan Area. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Washington.Available online, at:http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_metro/gdp_metro_newsrelease.htm.

    Browning, William (2012). Navy to bring three-ship amphibious group to Mayport early.Jacksonville.com, 15 June. Available online, at: http://jacksonville.com/news/florida /2012-06-15/story/navy-bring-three-ship-amphibious-group-mayport-early

    Brumley, J. (2012). Mayport's Future: Amphibious Assault Ships, Destroyers, Littoral Combat Ships and

    Patrol Craft. Jacksonville.com, 12 January. Available online, at:http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2012-02-17/story/mayports-future-amphibious-assault-ships-destroyers-littoral-combat.

    Bryan, J. (interview). Chamber of Commerce- Director of Beaches Division. (J. Lynn, Interviewer).Causey, Adam and Gibbons, Timothy (2012, February 18).No carrier for Mayport in the near future, if

    at all. Retrieved April 10, 2012, from Jacksonville.com:http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2012-02-13/story/no-carrier-mayport-near-future-if-all.

    Carlyon, Hays (2012). UF hoops to play Georgetwon in Jacksonville on U.S. Navy carrier.Jacksonville.com, 15 June, available online at: http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/400642/hays-carlyon/2012-06-15/uf-hoops-play-georgetown-jacksonville-us-navy-carrier.

    Carper, R. (interview). Public Works Director, City of Atlantic Beach. (J. Lynn, Interviewer).Census, U. B. (2011). State and County Quickfacts. Retrieved 09 02, 2011, from

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