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Colloque franco-japonais 17-18 Octobre 2013

Development of end-to-end models to describe the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems in the Eastern Channel

- Loïc Baulier- Raphaël Girardin- Olivier Le Pape (Agropcampus-Ouest)- Martin Huret- Morgane Travers-Trolet- Sandrine Vaz- Paul Marchal

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Colloque franco-japonais 17-18 Octobre 2013

Outline

∎ From data collection to mapping information layers and spatial analyses (since 2003)

∎ From spatial analyses to ecosystem modeling (since 2011)

∎ From conceptual modelling to ecosystem-based advice-giving (prospect)

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Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013

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MN From data collection to spatial analyses: Habitat models

Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013

Sensitivity of model parameters

Distribution of residuals

Model uncertainty

Différent statistical modelsJuveniles

Adults

KRIGING GLM GAM RQ

Interpolated and estimated distribution of whiting habitat

Caractérisation environnementale des frayères de la morue

Modelling essential habitats

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From data collection to spatial analyses: Trophic networksColloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013

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MN From data collection to spatial analyses: Larvae trajectories

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Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013

From data collection to spatial analyses: Fleet dynamics Fishers’ behaviour is mainly driven by past activities but also…

Other fleets distribution:

Other maritime activities and spatial management:

Ability to forecast the future: forecast 2009 behaviour

12NM TRAFIC

Passive

gears 10-12m

Passive gears <10m

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From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE

OSMOSE MODEL

Spatial multi-species individual-based model (IBM)

• Full life cycle • Individual variability

• Main processes: growth, predation, migration, reproduction, mortalities

(natural, by predation, due to fishing,)

Size-structured model based on opportunistic predation

• Based on spatio-temporal co-occurrence & size adequacy between prey and

predator • Allows emergence of local trophic

interactions and dynamic food web structure

Grid 6’ x 6’Time step : 15 days

14 species

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From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE

OSMOSE MODEL

Coupled to a Bio-physical model

• Dynamics of plankton groups forced by physics (current, T°, light, salinity…)

• Coupling through the predation process: plankton as prey field for small fish

ECO-MARS 3D MODEL

Cumulative annual production of diatoms

(gC.m-2.an-1) in 2003

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From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE

OSMOSE MODELECO-MARS 3D MODEL

BENTHIC PREY FIELDS

Ophiothrix fragilis

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Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013

From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: ATLANTIS

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Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013

From ecosystem modelling to ecosystem-based advice

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Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013

From ecosystem modelling to ecosystem-based advice

∎ Testing the sensitivity of complex ecosystem models using advanced methods

∎ Testing various scenarios considered using OSMOSE & ATLANTIS

A2 National Enterprise B1 Global Community

Fuel price 2050 214% of 2010

176% of 2010

Fish price 2050 135% of 2010 116% of 2010

MPAs Fishing limited Fishing banned

Relative stability strict loose

Shipping 2050 150% of 2010 250% of 2010

Wind energy Some plans realised All plans realised

Aggregate extraction Some plans realised All plans realised