united states world agricultural service production...2018/12/07 · ukraine wheat: hot, dry...

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign

Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 7-18 July 2018

European Union Wheat: Dryness in Northern Countries Cuts Estimated Production by 4.4 Million Tons

European Union wheat production for 2018/19 is estimated at 145.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.4 mmt or 3 percent from last month, down 6.6 mmt from last year and down 4 percent from the 5-year average. Area is estimated down 0.2 million metric hectares (mha) from last month and 0.6 mha from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.65 tons per hectare, down 2 percent from last month, down 2 percent from last year and down 1 percent from the 5-year average.

World Agricultural Production

A lack of rainfall in most of northern Europe continued through the month of June, depleting soil moisture, accelerating crop development, and reducing potential yields. June dryness coincided with the sensitive crop development stage of grain fill, when moisture is needed for kernel growth. Estimated yields were reduced for the second straight month for Germany and Poland, while additional reductions were made this month for Sweden, Denmark, the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, the Baltics, and Austria due to dryness. Estimated production in France was lowered because of too much rainfall during late spring, as well as pest and fungus problems observed by USDA analysts during June crop travel. Overall crop conditions in France were good. Conversely, estimated wheat production for Spain has increased significantly due to beneficial spring rain that boosted crop yields. Harvest progress in Spain is behind schedule due to the unusually frequent rain. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) For country-specific area, yield, and production estimates within the European Union (EU), please go to PSD Online at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/app/index.html#/app/home, and select “Downloadable Data Sets.” Select the zipped file for “EU Countries Area & Production.” Ukraine Wheat: Hot, Dry Weather in the Steppe Zone Reduces Estimated Yield Ukraine wheat production for 2018/19 is estimated by USDA at 25.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.0 mmt from last month and down 1.5 mmt from last year. The USDA production forecast includes estimated output from Crimea. Yield is estimated at 3.81 metric tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last month, down 6 percent from last year, and 2 percent below the 5-year average. The month-to-month reduction is based on severe drought in the steppe zone (southern Ukraine), which accounts for about half of Ukraine’s wheat output. Harvested area is estimated at 6.7 million hectares, up slightly from last year. The wheat harvest began earlier than usual this year because of the hot and dry weather, which accelerated

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

mailto:[email protected].)

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/app/index.html#/app/home

crop development. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported harvest was complete on 34 percent of the planted area as of July 10 compared to about 12 percent by the same date last year. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Australia Wheat: Forecast Production Revised Down USDA forecasts Australia’s 2018/19 wheat crop at 22.0 million metric tons, down 2.0 million or 8 percent from last month, but up 0.7 million or 3 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.0 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month, and down 0.25 million or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.83 tons per hectare, up 5 percent from last year.

Australia’s wheat region has experienced a mixed start. Sowing operations were facilitated by timely rainfall in May in most cropping regions of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales, whereas Queensland and northern New South Wales conditions were drier than average. June rainfall was below normal for all states. Currently, soil moisture ranges from below average to insufficient throughout large areas of the wheat belt. Sufficient and timely

winter rainfall will be critically important for crop development. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)


mailto:[email protected]


Russia Wheat: Punishing Drought Reduces Estimated Yield Prospects for Winter Wheat Russia wheat production for 2018/19 is estimated at 67.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.5 mmt from last month and down 18.0 mmt from last year’s record crop. The estimate includes 48.5 mmt of winter wheat and 18.5 mmt of spring wheat, and excludes estimated output from Crimea. Harvested area is estimated at 25.5 million hectares (14.0 mha winter and 11.5 mha spring), against 27.3 mha last year. The month-to-month production change is based on a decrease in estimated winter wheat yield, which has been reduced for the second consecutive month because of persistent drought in the Southern, North Caucasus, and Volga Districts. Total wheat yield is estimated at 2.63 metric tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last year’s record. The harvest of winter wheat is underway in southern Russia and will conclude in the Volga District in mid-August. Meanwhile, in eastern production regions, spring wheat in the Siberian and Ural Districts has benefited from abundant rain, but the wet weather significantly delayed planting progress and reduced area planted. Russia’s spring wheat harvest usually begins in late August and continues through October. Area, yield, and production estimates for Russia winter wheat and spring wheat are available on PSD Online. Select “Downloadable Data Sets” and open the zipped file for “Russia Wheat; Winter/Spring Area & Prod.” (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Ukraine Sunseed: Severe Drought in the Main Production Zone USDA forecasts Ukraine 2018/19 sunseed production at 13.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 2.0 mmt from last month and down 0.2 mmt from last year. Harvested area is estimated at a record 6.5 million hectares (mha), up 0.1 mha from last year. Although recent weather has been favorable for corn and soybeans in central and western Ukraine, persistent dryness has prevailed in the southern and eastern regions, which is the major production


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zone for sunseed. As a result, the forecast yield for sunflowerseed is decreased to 2.08 metric tons per hectare, down 13 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year. Harvest will begin in early September and continue through mid-November. All USDA production numbers for Ukraine include estimated output from Crimea. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Brazil Soybeans: Record Forecast Production Due to 7 percent Increase in Area

Brazil’s soybean production for 2018/19 is forecast at a record 120.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 2.5 mmt or 2 percent from last month and up 1 percent from the previous year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 37.5 million hectares (mha), up 1.0 mha or 3 percent from last month and up 7 percent from last year. Soybean area is forecast to continue expanding as it has for the past 10 years, with 2018/19 forecast to have the highest annual increase in 5 years. It is anticipated that Brazilian producers will plant more soybeans to capitalize on the trade advantage over the United States in response to China’s imposition of retaliatory duties. Yield is forecast at 3.21 metric tons per hectare, near the 25-year trend but 6 percent below last year’s record. Last year’s crop benefited from favorable weather and improved technology that raised yields to record levels almost everywhere, except in the south. Planting begins in September in the primary growing areas of the Center-West and South regions and continues through December in the rest of the country. (For more information, please contact [email protected]). Canada Soybeans: Estimated 2018/19 Area Drops after Last Year’s Record USDA forecasts Canada soybean production for 2018/19 at 7.3 million metric tons, down 6 percent from last month and down 9 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.86 metric tons




per hectare, essentially unchanged from last month and up about 4 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.55 million hectares, down 7 percent from last month and down 12 percent from last year.

The month-to-month decrease in area is attributed to an overall decrease in planted area in the four main soybean producing provinces (Manitoba, Ontario, Québec and Saskatchewan), although most of the decline comes from the significant drop in area in Western Canada this year (Manitoba and Saskatchewan). USDA Foreign Agricultural Service analysts conducted crop assessment travel in late June. The team observed soybeans in southeastern Ontario

are in overall favorable condition. There were planting delays in the far south near the US border but other fields by Exeter, Ontario (as shown in photo) were a week ahead of schedule. Additionally there was some spraying for pests but nothing of major concern. Recent rainfall was much needed for crop development and ameliorated the intense heat across the region. Additional rain will be needed in a few weeks. Although crops are still in the early vegetative stage in Manitoba, the MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis indicate good vegetative vigor in the soybean areas. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) European Union Rapeseed: Estimated Production Down for Second Straight Month European Union rapeseed production for 2018/19 is estimated at 20.2 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.6 mmt or 7 percent from last month and down 9 percent from last year. Estimated area is down slightly at 6.8 million hectares, similar to both last year and the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 2.99 tons per hectare, down 7 percent from last month, down 8 percent from last year and down 10 percent from the 5-year average.


A continuing and widening rainfall deficit in northern Europe has resulted in a second straight month of rapeseed reductions. Germany’s rapeseed crop is reduced by 0.4 mmt due to dryness. The lack of precipitation in Germany has been concentrated in the northern and eastern regions where rapeseed is most prominent. Dryness has also spread to the United Kingdom, Denmark and the Baltics countries, resulting in estimated reductions to their crops. The biggest reduction (0.9 mmt) was in France. The problems in France included a shortened flowering period due to a rapid warm-up in May. The sudden increase in temperature caused flowers to abort, resulting in fewer pod set. Moreover, due to heavy spring rainfall, there was a high occurrence of pest damage, particularly by the cabbage stem flea beetle which was observed by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service analysts during June crop travel. The larvae bore into the stem of the rapeseed plant and eat the cellulose material. This weakens the plant and prevents the uptake of essential nutrients. The EU’s ban on neonicotinoids and other chemicals have made growing rapeseed increasingly challenging for farmers in their battle against insects; many producers are skeptical about future plantings. The rapeseed harvest occurs in July and August. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) For country-specific area, yield, and production estimates within the European Union (EU), please go to PSD Online at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/app/index.html#/app/home, and select “Downloadable Data Sets.” Select the zipped file for “EU Countries Area & Production.”


mailto:[email protected].)

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/app/index.html#/app/home

Russia Sunseed: Drought Reduces Yield Prospects but Area Still Stands at a Record Level USDA forecasts Russia sunseed production for 2018/19 at 10.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.0 mmt from last month but up 0.1 mmt from last year. Severe drought in southern Russia and the Volga Valley reduced the yield prospects for several of Russia’s major crops, including sunflowers. The forecast yield for sunseed has been reduced from last month’s record 1.53 tons per hectare (t/ha) to a slightly-below-average 1.40 t/ha. The estimated harvested area is unchanged at a record 7.5 million hectares. Sunflower area in Russia has expanded by 30 percent over the last ten years. Most of the increase has occurred in the Volga District, where planted area has doubled; the district now accounts for 45 percent of the country’s total sunflower area. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Brazil Cotton: Forecast Production Up on Higher Area Cotton production for 2018/19 is forecast at a record 9.50 million 480-lb bales, up 0.5 million bales or 6 percent from last month, and up 0.3 million bales or 3 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 1.3 million hectares, up 7 percent from last month and up 9 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1,591 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), down 1 percent from last month and down 5 percent from last year’s record. Planted area is forecast to increase for the second consecutive year as producers are encouraged by higher prices, and the successful outcome of the previous two seasons – a record crop last year and two consecutive years of record yields. Mato Grosso (62 percent of Brazil’s cotton production) is forecast to continue its upward trend in area, and Bahia (25 percent



of Brazil’s cotton production) is forecast to increase area for the second consecutive year as it returns to the higher levels of production that preceded several years of discouraging prices and disappointing output due to adverse weather. Cotton is planted from November to February in the principal cotton-growing southeast and central states as well as Bahia. In other northeastern cotton-growing areas, planting continues until May. The majority of the cotton crop will be harvested from June to August. In addition, cotton production for 2017/18 is estimated at 9.2 million bales, up 0.3 million bales or 3 percent from last month. Harvested area is estimated at 1.19 mha, unchanged from last month. Yield is estimated at a record 1,683 kg/ha, up 3 percent from last month and up 4 percent from last year. Favorable weather boosted yields to record levels. Harvest is underway and will continue through August. (For more information, please contact [email protected]). Brazil Corn: Estimated Output for 2017/18 Further Reduced Corn production for 2017/18 is estimated at 83.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.5 mmt from last month, and down 15.0 mmt from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 16.8 million hectares (mha), down slightly from last month and down 5 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 4.97 metric tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month and down 11 percent from last year due to adverse weather in southern second-crop corn production areas. In Paraná (18 percent of Brazil’s second-crop corn production) and Mato Grosso do Sul (14 percent), prolonged periods of dryness during critical reproductive stages severely reduced yields. Subsequent rains brought some relief but were too late to reverse damage to much of the drought-affected crop. In Mato Grosso (42 percent) and Goiás (12 percent), the crop benefited from more favorable weather, although yields remain below last year’s records. About 10 percent of the corn crop had been harvested by early July. Harvest of the majority of second-crop corn will continue through September. (For more information, contact [email protected]).




Russia Corn: Drought in Southern Russia Drives 20-Percent Drop in Forecast Production

USDA forecasts Russia corn production for 2018/19 at 12.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 3.0 mmt from last month and down 1.2 mmt from last year. The month-to-month drop is based on a 9-percent decrease in the estimated harvested area to 2.45 million hectares, and a 12-percent decrease in the forecast yield to 4.90 tons per hectare. Corn in the Southern District and the North Caucasus District, which together account for about 60 percent of the country’s corn output, encountered severe heat as the crop was advancing through the reproductive stage, when corn is especially vulnerable to damage from high temperatures. Moreover, vegetative vigor has suffered due to persistent dryness, as denoted by MODIS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from early July. Weather has been more favorable in the Central District, Russia’s other major corn producing region. Harvest will begin in the south in September and advance northward through the end of November. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)



World Agricultural Production U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051 https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/ Telephone: (202) 720-1662 Fax: (202) 720-1158 This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-579), July 12, 2018. Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at 1-800-363-2068. The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, August 10, 2018. Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels

Wheat, soybeans = MT * 36.7437 Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * 39.36825 Barley = MT * 45.929625 Oats = MT * 68.894438

Metric tons to 480-lb bales

Cotton = MT * 4.592917 Metric tons to hundredweight

Rice = MT * 22.04622 Area & weight

1 hectare = 2.471044 acres 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds


https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/

For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051 Telephone: (202) 720-1662 Fax: (202) 720-1158 GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz 202-720-4056 [email protected] Deputy Director Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] Administrative Assistant Shelisa Johnson 202-720-1662 [email protected] USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, Ph.D. 202-690-0134 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/ Satellite Imagery Dath Mita, Ph.D. 202-720-7339 [email protected] Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Vacant GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South America, Argentina, Venezuela, Denise McWilliams, Ph.D.202-720-0107 [email protected] and Colombia Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 [email protected] and North Africa Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 [email protected] South Asia, Sri Lanka Arnella Trent 202-720-0881 [email protected] Bangladesh, India, and Nepal East Asia, China, and Japan Dath Mita, Ph.D. 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sub-Saharan Africa, Curt Reynolds, Ph.D. 202-690-0134 [email protected] Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vacant Cambodia and Vietnam Central America, Mexico, Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] and Western United States Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Central Asia, Afghanistan Bill Baker, Ph.D. 202-260-8109 [email protected] Iraq, Iran, and Syria Canada, Caribbean, Katie McGaughey 202-720-9210 [email protected] Eastern United States Brazil Maria Anulacion 202-720-6878 [email protected]




The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7 Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx EU Countries Area & Production Estimates http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/ Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops National Agricultural Statistics Service:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/


http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Million Metric Tons

Table 01 World Crop Production Summary

World

-

Total

Foreign

North

America

North

America

North

America

Former

Soviet

Former

Soviet

Europea

n

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

South

America

South

America

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

All

Others

none

-

none

-

United

States

Mexico

-

Canada

-

Russia

-

Ukraine

-

none

-

China

-

India

-

Indo-

nesia

Paki-

stan

Thai-

land

Argen-

tina

Brazil

-

South

Africa

Turkey

-

none

-

Aus-

tralia

Commodity

---Million metric tons---

Wheat

2016/17 236.217.31.931.86.718.40.025.60.087.0128.8nr26.872.53.932.162.8689.2752.0

2017/18 prel. 244.021.01.521.34.318.00.026.70.098.5129.8nr27.085.03.530.047.4710.5757.9

2018/19 proj.

Jul 238.620.01.822.04.919.50.025.50.097.0128.0nr25.567.02.832.551.2685.1736.3

Coarse Grains

2016/17 337.910.818.117.3101.648.65.36.610.943.5226.9nr39.240.833.326.6402.6967.21,369.8

2017/18 prel. 339.213.014.311.986.340.35.16.611.445.0223.4nr34.141.732.526.2384.3930.91,315.2

2018/19 proj.

Jul 339.413.114.612.399.048.95.26.811.943.9232.8nr38.336.431.927.5375.1961.81,336.9

Rice, Milled

2016/17 150.80.50.00.68.40.919.26.836.9109.7145.0nr0.00.70.20.07.1479.6486.7

2017/18 prel. 151.30.50.00.58.10.920.47.537.0110.0146.0nr0.00.60.20.05.7482.9488.6

2018/19 proj.

Jul 153.30.50.00.58.00.821.27.437.3109.0142.2nr0.00.60.20.06.8481.0487.8

Total Grains

2016/17 725.028.520.049.7116.767.824.539.147.8240.2500.7nr66.1114.037.358.8472.62,136.02,608.5

2017/18 prel. 734.634.515.833.798.659.225.440.748.4253.5499.2nr61.1127.336.256.2437.32,124.42,561.7

2018/19 proj.

Jul 731.233.616.434.8111.969.226.439.749.2249.9503.0nr63.8104.034.960.0433.12,127.92,561.0

Oilseeds

2016/17 84.52.82.35.7117.660.20.93.712.837.356.5nr20.715.01.126.2126.9447.3574.2

2017/18 prel. 88.03.22.55.3123.341.61.04.013.334.160.3nr19.815.51.329.6131.0442.6573.7

2018/19 proj.

Jul 86.73.32.54.4124.461.91.04.213.636.660.5nr19.915.91.428.5127.8464.8592.6

Cotton

2016/17 14.83.20.14.17.00.80.07.70.027.022.81.30.00.00.80.017.289.5106.6

2017/18 prel. 15.94.00.24.99.20.80.08.20.029.027.51.50.00.01.60.020.9102.8123.7

2018/19 proj.

Jul 16.14.30.23.79.50.80.08.50.028.726.51.60.00.01.80.018.5101.6120.1

1/ Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.


Table 02 Wheat Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MMTPercent

Yield

(Metric tons per hectare)

Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million metric tons)

Change in Production

2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

222.15World -2.86-21.66736.26219.48 217.13 3.39 3.45 3.39 751.99 757.92

17.75United States 8.093.8351.2115.21 16.01 3.54 3.11 3.20 62.83 47.37

204.41Total Foreign -3.59-25.50685.05204.26 201.12 3.37 3.48 3.41 689.16 710.55

none

27.23European Union - 28 -4.34-6.58145.0026.29 25.64 5.34 5.77 5.65 145.37 151.58

24.19China -1.36-1.77128.0023.99 23.70 5.33 5.41 5.40 128.85 129.77

South Asia

30.22 India -1.53-1.5197.0030.79 30.00 2.88 3.20 3.23 87.00 98.51

9.22 Pakistan -4.40-1.1725.508.97 8.95 2.78 2.97 2.85 25.63 26.67

2.55 Afghanistan -20.00-1.004.002.55 2.50 2.00 1.96 1.60 5.10 5.00

0.76 Nepal 0.340.011.790.77 0.76 2.41 2.31 2.35 1.83 1.78

Former Soviet Union - 12

27.00 Russia -21.17-17.9967.0027.34 25.50 2.69 3.11 2.63 72.53 84.99

13.64 Russia Winter -20.47-12.4948.5014.64 14.00 3.78 4.17 3.46 51.54 60.99

13.37 Russia Spring -22.93-5.5118.5012.70 11.50 1.57 1.89 1.61 20.99 24.01

6.46 Ukraine -5.49-1.4825.506.64 6.70 4.15 4.06 3.81 26.79 26.98

12.37 Kazakhstan -5.42-0.8014.0011.91 11.50 1.21 1.24 1.22 14.99 14.80

1.40 Uzbekistan -13.04-0.906.001.40 1.40 4.96 4.93 4.29 6.94 6.90

0.71 Belarus -0.76-0.022.600.72 0.70 3.29 3.65 3.71 2.34 2.62

8.98Canada 8.332.5032.509.00 9.70 3.58 3.33 3.35 32.14 30.00

South America

5.56 Argentina 8.331.5019.505.60 6.00 3.31 3.21 3.25 18.40 18.00

2.12 Brazil 14.920.644.901.92 2.00 3.17 2.23 2.45 6.73 4.26

0.22 Uruguay 36.360.160.600.20 0.20 3.52 2.23 3.00 0.76 0.44

12.19Australia 3.290.7022.0012.25 12.00 2.61 1.74 1.83 31.82 21.30

Africa

1.26 Egypt 0.000.008.451.32 1.32 6.43 6.40 6.40 8.10 8.45

2.41 Morocco 15.621.118.203.32 3.10 1.13 2.14 2.65 2.73 7.09

1.70 Ethiopia 0.000.004.501.70 1.70 2.68 2.65 2.65 4.54 4.50

1.30 Algeria 25.000.603.001.60 1.60 1.54 1.50 1.88 2.00 2.40

Middle East

7.82 Turkey -4.76-1.0020.007.80 7.62 2.21 2.69 2.63 17.25 21.00

6.70 Iran 3.570.5014.506.70 6.70 2.16 2.09 2.16 14.50 14.00

2.35 Iraq -0.62-0.034.002.23 2.30 1.80 1.81 1.74 4.23 4.03

1.10 Syria -9.09-0.202.001.10 1.10 2.18 2.00 1.82 2.40 2.20

0.72Mexico -19.86-0.692.800.67 0.54 5.34 5.24 5.23 3.87 3.49

0.61Serbia 34.780.803.100.54 0.68 4.92 4.26 4.59 3.00 2.30

-19.75Others 100.0019.14-48.39-20.38 -18.28 2.69 3.31 2.65 -53.19 -67.52

World and Selected Countries and Regions


Table 03 Total Coarse Grain Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

329.70World 1.6521.741,336.91318.96 322.15 4.15 4.12 4.15 1,369.83 1,315.17

39.20United States -2.38-9.16375.1036.74 36.61 10.27 10.46 10.25 402.61 384.26

290.49Total Foreign 3.3230.90961.82282.22 285.54 3.33 3.30 3.37 967.22 930.92

none

38.88China 4.219.41232.8137.63 38.76 5.83 5.94 6.01 226.87 223.39

29.47European Union 0.971.49154.6629.28 29.34 5.19 5.23 5.27 152.82 153.17

South America

18.62 Brazil 14.6812.6798.9617.91 18.82 5.46 4.82 5.26 101.58 86.29

6.84 Argentina 21.138.5248.857.00 7.00 7.11 5.76 6.98 48.57 40.33


15.14 Russia -12.68-5.2936.4314.74 14.58 2.69 2.83 2.50 40.77 41.71

7.82 Ukraine 12.274.1838.257.59 7.61 5.01 4.49 5.03 39.22 34.07

2.33 Kazakhstan 3.890.174.632.49 2.63 1.90 1.79 1.76 4.43 4.45

0.96 Belarus 6.690.223.511.00 1.05 3.16 3.30 3.34 3.03 3.29

Africa

14.05 Nigeria 1.310.2519.3013.80 13.80 1.36 1.38 1.40 19.11 19.05

3.18 South Africa 2.160.3114.562.82 3.01 5.69 5.05 4.84 18.12 14.25

5.31 Tanzania 0.770.056.555.35 5.35 1.11 1.21 1.22 5.90 6.50

3.83 Burkina 18.060.674.403.85 3.85 1.09 0.97 1.14 4.17 3.73

5.43 Ethiopia 1.580.2214.185.69 5.71 2.78 2.45 2.48 15.09 13.96

0.97 Egypt 0.000.007.261.02 1.02 7.05 7.09 7.09 6.86 7.26

4.63 Mali -27.46-1.864.903.95 3.95 1.30 1.71 1.24 6.01 6.76

25.18India -2.47-1.1143.8923.57 24.18 1.73 1.91 1.82 43.47 45.00

Southeast Asia

3.40 Indonesia 4.390.5011.903.45 3.50 3.21 3.30 3.40 10.90 11.40

2.69 Philippines 3.230.268.302.61 2.64 3.03 3.09 3.14 8.13 8.04

1.10 Vietnam -19.06-0.933.951.05 0.85 4.60 4.65 4.65 5.06 4.88

1.20 Thailand 2.570.135.181.15 1.18 4.39 4.39 4.40 5.25 5.05

9.34Mexico -1.91-0.6231.898.95 9.11 3.56 3.63 3.50 33.26 32.51

4.82Canada 5.041.3227.534.72 4.96 5.52 5.56 5.55 26.62 26.21

6.38Australia 3.680.4412.355.31 5.76 2.71 2.24 2.14 17.27 11.91

Middle East

4.19 Turkey 0.620.0813.054.22 4.34 2.57 3.08 3.01 10.78 12.97

1.75 Iran 0.000.004.321.79 1.79 2.24 2.41 2.41 3.92 4.32

72.99Others -0.17-0.19110.2471.30 70.77 1.51 1.55 1.56 110.04 110.42

World and Selected Countries and Regions; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum


Table 04 Corn Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

186.88World 1.9920.561,054.30183.63 183.95 5.77 5.63 5.73 1,078.45 1,033.74

35.11United States -2.56-9.50361.4633.47 33.09 10.96 11.08 10.92 384.78 370.96

151.77Total Foreign 4.5430.06692.85150.16 150.86 4.57 4.41 4.59 693.67 662.78

none

36.77China 4.229.11225.0035.45 36.50 5.97 6.09 6.16 219.55 215.89

South America

17.60 Brazil 14.9712.5096.0016.80 17.70 5.60 4.97 5.42 98.50 83.50

4.90 Argentina 24.248.0041.005.10 5.00 8.37 6.47 8.20 41.00 33.00

0.09 Bolivia -5.41-0.050.880.37 0.33 1.38 2.50 2.65 0.12 0.93

8.57European Union -1.15-0.7261.508.38 8.38 7.21 7.42 7.34 61.74 62.22

Africa

3.00 South Africa 1.450.2014.002.65 2.80 5.86 5.21 5.00 17.55 13.80

6.50 Nigeria 0.000.0011.006.50 6.50 1.65 1.69 1.69 10.76 11.00

2.14 Ethiopia 1.430.107.102.23 2.25 3.42 3.14 3.16 7.30 7.00

0.75 Egypt 0.000.006.400.80 0.80 8.00 8.00 8.00 6.00 6.40

4.20 Tanzania 0.930.055.404.20 4.20 1.15 1.27 1.29 4.82 5.35

1.67 Malawi -13.39-0.463.001.70 1.70 1.42 2.04 1.76 2.37 3.46

1.16 Zambia -4.00-0.153.501.43 1.30 2.48 2.54 2.69 2.87 3.65

2.34 Kenya 8.470.253.202.10 2.15 1.43 1.40 1.49 3.34 2.95

1.15 Uganda -10.71-0.302.501.10 1.10 2.32 2.55 2.27 2.66 2.80

0.77 Zimbabwe -53.60-1.161.001.88 1.20 0.66 1.15 0.83 0.51 2.16


4.24 Ukraine 24.405.8930.004.43 4.60 6.60 5.44 6.52 27.97 24.12

2.78 Russia -9.29-1.2312.002.70 2.45 5.51 4.90 4.90 15.31 13.23

South Asia

9.63 India -3.27-0.8826.009.22 9.20 2.69 2.92 2.83 25.90 26.88

1.35 Pakistan 3.280.206.301.30 1.32 4.53 4.69 4.77 6.10 6.10

0.89 Nepal -0.20-0.012.550.90 0.90 2.62 2.84 2.83 2.34 2.56

Southeast Asia

3.40 Indonesia 4.390.5011.903.45 3.50 3.21 3.30 3.40 10.90 11.40

2.69 Philippines 3.230.268.302.61 2.64 3.03 3.09 3.14 8.13 8.04

1.10 Vietnam -19.06-0.933.951.05 0.85 4.60 4.65 4.65 5.06 4.88

1.17 Thailand 2.600.135.131.12 1.15 4.45 4.45 4.46 5.20 5.00

7.51Mexico -2.99-0.8026.007.23 7.20 3.67 3.71 3.61 27.58 26.80

1.41Canada 4.960.7014.801.41 1.45 9.82 10.04 10.21 13.89 14.10

0.57Turkey -15.00-0.905.100.60 0.53 9.65 10.00 9.62 5.50 6.00

23.44Others -0.41-0.2559.3423.46 23.17 2.59 2.54 2.56 60.72 59.59



Table 05 Barley Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

49.29World 0.260.37144.6348.05 49.00 2.99 3.00 2.95 147.16 144.26

1.04United States 8.930.283.370.79 0.83 4.19 3.91 4.07 4.35 3.09

48.26Total Foreign 0.070.09141.2647.26 48.17 2.96 2.99 2.93 142.81 141.17

none

12.32European Union 2.431.4460.5012.14 12.17 4.87 4.86 4.97 59.98 59.06


7.96 Russia -15.77-3.1817.007.85 7.90 2.21 2.57 2.15 17.55 20.18

3.05 Ukraine -19.49-1.707.002.65 2.50 3.24 3.28 2.80 9.87 8.70

1.89 Kazakhstan 5.900.203.502.07 2.20 1.71 1.60 1.59 3.23 3.31

0.45 Belarus 19.720.281.700.45 0.50 2.78 3.14 3.40 1.25 1.42

0.36 Azerbaijan 18.900.160.980.32 0.35 2.69 2.56 2.79 0.95 0.82

2.27Canada 11.390.908.802.10 2.35 3.90 3.76 3.74 8.84 7.90

4.83Australia -1.12-0.108.803.90 4.30 2.79 2.28 2.05 13.51 8.90

Middle East

3.40 Turkey 15.631.007.403.40 3.60 1.40 1.88 2.06 4.75 6.40

1.61 Iran 0.000.003.101.60 1.60 1.86 1.94 1.94 3.00 3.10

1.20 Iraq -24.53-0.331.001.07 1.00 1.29 1.24 1.00 1.55 1.33

0.88 Syria -35.65-0.280.500.80 0.80 0.82 0.97 0.63 0.72 0.78

Africa

0.96 Ethiopia 3.330.072.171.20 1.20 2.11 1.75 1.81 2.03 2.10

1.21 Morocco 25.000.502.501.80 1.50 0.51 1.11 1.67 0.62 2.00

0.90 Algeria 44.630.431.400.76 0.90 1.11 1.27 1.56 1.00 0.97

0.28 Tunisia -5.32-0.030.450.36 0.34 1.34 1.31 1.31 0.38 0.47

0.09 South Africa 14.010.040.350.09 0.10 3.99 3.37 3.65 0.36 0.31

South America

0.87 Argentina 6.950.264.000.94 1.00 3.79 4.00 4.00 3.30 3.74

0.19 Uruguay 53.660.220.630.10 0.14 3.57 4.10 4.50 0.68 0.41

0.10 Brazil 11.700.030.320.11 0.11 3.91 2.61 2.92 0.38 0.28

0.59India 2.290.041.790.66 0.68 2.44 2.67 2.64 1.44 1.75

0.43China 2.780.051.850.43 0.45 4.08 4.19 4.11 1.75 1.80

0.33Mexico -0.400.001.000.36 0.36 2.96 2.81 2.78 0.98 1.00

0.22Afghanistan -12.50-0.050.350.25 0.25 1.83 1.60 1.40 0.40 0.40

1.88Others 3.380.144.191.86 1.88 2.29 2.18 2.23 4.31 4.05



Table 06 Oats Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

9.67World -0.12-0.0323.489.54 9.53 2.50 2.46 2.46 24.18 23.51

0.40United States 34.450.250.960.32 0.41 2.37 2.21 2.36 0.94 0.72

9.27Total Foreign -1.21-0.2822.519.22 9.12 2.51 2.47 2.47 23.24 22.79

none

2.57European Union 5.330.438.542.68 2.68 3.13 3.03 3.19 8.05 8.11


2.75 Russia -11.78-0.644.802.78 2.75 1.73 1.96 1.75 4.75 5.44

0.21 Ukraine -1.25-0.010.480.21 0.20 2.38 2.31 2.38 0.51 0.48

0.15 Belarus -8.00-0.040.460.15 0.16 2.67 3.33 2.88 0.39 0.50

0.21 Kazakhstan 5.260.020.300.21 0.22 1.60 1.34 1.40 0.34 0.29

0.93Canada -6.76-0.253.451.05 1.00 3.49 3.52 3.45 3.23 3.70

South America

0.32 Argentina 21.950.110.600.22 0.25 2.45 2.24 2.40 0.79 0.49

0.29 Brazil 17.510.110.750.34 0.34 2.84 1.86 2.19 0.83 0.63

0.14 Chile 0.750.010.680.14 0.14 5.20 4.75 5.00 0.71 0.67

0.03 Uruguay 0.000.000.040.03 0.02 1.58 1.52 1.58 0.04 0.04

Oceania

1.03 Australia -1.79-0.021.100.74 0.70 2.20 1.51 1.57 2.27 1.12

0.01 New Zealand -5.880.000.030.01 0.01 5.38 5.67 5.33 0.04 0.03

0.21China 1.670.010.310.21 0.22 1.41 1.43 1.42 0.29 0.30

Africa

0.09 Algeria 0.000.000.110.09 0.09 1.29 1.29 1.29 0.11 0.11

0.05 Morocco -3.080.000.060.05 0.05 1.44 1.44 1.40 0.07 0.07

0.04 South Africa 0.000.000.060.03 0.03 1.60 1.83 1.83 0.06 0.06

Other Europe

0.08 Norway 0.000.000.300.08 0.08 4.34 4.00 4.00 0.33 0.30

0.03 Serbia 0.000.000.070.03 0.03 2.17 2.17 2.17 0.07 0.07

0.01 Albania 0.000.000.030.01 0.01 2.08 2.08 2.08 0.03 0.03

0.01 Bosnia and Herzegovina 66.670.010.030.01 0.01 2.90 2.57 3.00 0.03 0.02

0.10Turkey -8.00-0.020.230.11 0.10 2.27 2.21 2.30 0.23 0.25

0.04Mexico 25.000.020.090.04 0.05 1.89 1.64 1.80 0.07 0.07

0.02Others -3.850.000.030.01 0.01 1.93 1.86 1.79 0.03 0.03



Table 07 Rye Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

4.12World -0.22-0.0312.364.03 4.06 2.99 3.07 3.04 12.34 12.38

0.17United States 6.910.020.260.12 0.14 2.04 2.12 1.84 0.34 0.25

3.96Total Foreign -0.36-0.0412.093.91 3.92 3.03 3.10 3.09 12.00 12.14

none

1.90European Union 5.930.457.971.96 2.00 3.92 3.84 3.98 7.45 7.52


1.25 Russia -13.52-0.342.201.17 1.15 2.03 2.17 1.91 2.54 2.54

0.24 Belarus -2.99-0.020.650.26 0.25 2.70 2.62 2.60 0.65 0.67

0.15 Ukraine -21.57-0.110.400.17 0.15 2.72 2.97 2.76 0.39 0.51

0.04 Kazakhstan -10.260.000.040.03 0.03 1.14 1.26 1.17 0.04 0.04

0.12Turkey 0.000.000.320.10 0.11 2.61 3.17 2.91 0.30 0.32

0.14Canada -6.25-0.020.300.10 0.10 3.11 3.30 3.00 0.44 0.32

South America

0.00 Chile 0.000.000.010.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.01 0.01

0.04 Argentina 9.200.010.100.04 0.05 1.93 2.12 2.11 0.08 0.09

Other Europe

0.00 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.000.000.010.00 0.00 3.25 3.67 3.67 0.01 0.01

0.00 Switzerland 0.000.000.010.00 0.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 0.01 0.01

0.00 Serbia 0.000.000.010.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.01 0.01

0.04Australia 0.000.000.030.04 0.04 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.03 0.03

0.03Others 0.000.000.060.04 0.04 1.30 1.72 1.72 0.04 0.06



Table 08 Sorghum Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

44.29World 2.201.2758.7939.80 41.49 1.43 1.45 1.42 63.34 57.52

2.49United States -2.15-0.209.042.04 2.14 4.89 4.53 4.22 12.20 9.24

41.80Total Foreign 3.031.4649.7537.76 39.35 1.22 1.28 1.26 51.14 48.28

none

Africa

5.82 Nigeria 3.820.256.805.80 5.80 1.18 1.13 1.17 6.89 6.55

1.88 Ethiopia 1.230.054.101.82 1.82 2.52 2.23 2.25 4.75 4.05

9.16 Sudan 6.870.264.006.30 7.00 0.71 0.59 0.57 6.47 3.74

1.73 Burkina 31.770.431.801.67 1.80 0.96 0.82 1.00 1.66 1.37

1.56 Mali -23.75-0.411.301.35 1.35 0.89 1.26 0.96 1.39 1.71

3.61 Niger -12.55-0.241.703.70 3.70 0.50 0.53 0.46 1.81 1.94

0.86 Cameroon 0.000.001.400.85 0.85 1.56 1.65 1.65 1.34 1.40

0.78 Tanzania 0.000.000.800.80 0.80 0.97 1.00 1.00 0.76 0.80

0.14 Egypt 0.000.000.750.14 0.14 5.36 5.36 5.36 0.75 0.75

0.40 Uganda 3.030.010.340.35 0.35 0.79 0.94 0.97 0.32 0.33

0.23 Ghana 0.000.000.280.25 0.25 1.00 1.12 1.12 0.23 0.28

0.26 Mozambique 0.000.000.150.30 0.30 0.45 0.50 0.50 0.12 0.15

0.04 South Africa 76.470.070.150.03 0.06 3.62 2.83 2.50 0.15 0.09

1.47Mexico 3.560.174.801.32 1.50 3.17 3.51 3.20 4.64 4.64

South America

0.70 Argentina 5.000.153.150.70 0.70 4.86 4.29 4.50 3.40 3.00

0.63 Brazil 1.070.021.890.66 0.67 2.97 2.85 2.84 1.87 1.87

South Asia

5.86 India -2.75-0.134.604.83 5.20 0.78 0.98 0.88 4.57 4.73

0.26 Pakistan 7.690.010.140.20 0.23 0.58 0.65 0.62 0.15 0.13

0.63China 7.810.253.450.68 0.72 4.78 4.74 4.79 2.99 3.20

0.37Australia 38.990.562.000.53 0.63 2.70 2.71 3.17 0.99 1.44

0.12European Union -4.05-0.030.640.12 0.12 5.53 5.42 5.33 0.65 0.67

5.32Others 0.880.055.515.37 5.37 0.99 1.02 1.03 5.26 5.46




Table 09 Rice Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

161.48World -0.16-0.81487.80160.70 161.60 4.50 4.54 4.51 486.71 488.60

1.25United States 19.511.106.760.96 1.13 8.11 8.41 8.52 7.12 5.66

160.23Total Foreign -0.40-1.91481.04159.74 160.47 4.47 4.52 4.48 479.60 482.95

none

East Asia

30.18 China -2.60-3.79142.2030.18 29.50 6.86 6.91 6.89 144.95 145.99

1.57 Japan 0.180.017.601.56 1.56 6.81 6.69 6.69 7.78 7.59

0.78 Korea, South -6.09-0.243.730.76 0.71 7.18 7.01 7.05 4.20 3.97

0.47 Korea, North 1.720.031.600.48 0.50 5.49 5.09 4.92 1.67 1.57

South Asia

43.99 India -0.91-1.00109.0042.90 43.50 3.74 3.85 3.76 109.70 110.00

11.75 Bangladesh 6.282.0534.7011.27 11.77 4.42 4.35 4.42 34.58 32.65

2.72 Pakistan -1.33-0.107.402.80 2.80 3.77 4.02 3.96 6.85 7.50

1.50 Nepal 0.600.023.331.49 1.50 3.48 3.34 3.33 3.48 3.31

0.68 Sri Lanka 4.780.122.630.88 0.90 4.35 4.22 4.30 2.00 2.51

Southeast Asia

12.24 Indonesia 0.810.3037.3012.25 12.24 4.78 4.76 4.80 36.86 37.00

7.71 Vietnam 0.440.1329.077.76 7.76 5.68 5.97 5.99 27.40 28.94

10.25 Thailand 4.070.8321.2010.68 11.14 2.84 2.89 2.88 19.20 20.37

7.03 Burma 1.520.2013.407.10 7.15 2.81 2.90 2.93 12.65 13.20

4.72 Philippines 0.410.0512.354.86 4.86 3.93 4.02 4.04 11.69 12.30

3.10 Cambodia 1.870.105.503.18 3.25 2.78 2.78 2.78 5.26 5.40

0.97 Laos 2.500.052.050.98 0.99 3.19 3.24 3.30 1.95 2.00

0.70 Malaysia 0.000.001.820.70 0.70 4.03 4.03 4.03 1.82 1.82

South America

1.98 Brazil -0.63-0.058.021.96 1.96 6.22 6.06 6.02 8.38 8.08

0.42 Peru 2.830.062.180.44 0.43 7.54 7.06 7.35 2.19 2.12

Africa

0.85 Egypt -23.26-1.003.300.76 0.59 8.18 8.18 8.13 4.80 4.30

1.48 Madagascar 18.750.382.431.43 1.45 2.59 2.25 2.62 2.44 2.05

3.00 Nigeria 0.000.003.783.20 3.20 2.00 1.88 1.88 3.78 3.78

0.44European Union -1.62-0.032.000.43 0.42 6.80 6.81 6.89 2.08 2.04

0.63Iran -0.93-0.021.700.63 0.63 4.03 4.16 4.12 1.66 1.72

11.09Others -0.05-0.0122.7411.10 10.99 3.05 3.11 3.15 22.24 22.75

Yield is on a rough basis, before the milling process. Production is on a milled basis, after the milling process.



Table 10 Total Oilseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

--World Total 3.3018.92592.59-- -- -- -- -- 574.23 573.67

--Total Foreign 5.0022.12464.76-- -- -- -- -- 447.30 442.64

--Oilseed, Copra 1.660.105.83-- -- -- -- -- 5.51 5.73

--Oilseed, Palm Kernel 2.880.5419.21-- -- -- -- -- 17.36 18.68

none

234.16Major OilSeeds 3.3318.29567.55244.27 250.88 2.35 2.25 2.26 551.36 549.26

39.25United States -2.44-3.20127.8342.80 42.19 3.23 3.06 3.03 126.94 131.03

none

194.91Foreign Oilseeds 5.1421.49439.72201.47 208.69 2.18 2.08 2.11 424.42 418.23

60.88South America 12.5622.59202.3962.10 66.94 3.19 2.90 3.02 193.96 179.81

35.03 Brazil 0.911.12124.2836.52 39.04 3.35 3.37 3.18 117.47 123.16

19.81 Argentina 48.7120.2861.9119.20 21.40 3.04 2.17 2.89 60.17 41.63

3.47 Paraguay -2.06-0.219.913.54 3.57 2.97 2.86 2.77 10.31 10.12

1.28 Bolivia 2.770.082.781.53 1.52 1.74 1.77 1.83 2.22 2.71

1.14 Uruguay 73.791.313.091.15 1.26 2.98 1.55 2.46 3.41 1.78

23.31China 0.220.1360.4524.60 24.80 2.42 2.45 2.44 56.53 60.32

36.74South Asia 7.252.7340.4537.11 38.99 1.11 1.02 1.04 40.65 37.71

33.61 India 7.652.5535.8433.74 35.53 1.09 0.99 1.01 36.52 33.29

2.78 Pakistan 4.670.194.193.01 3.10 1.34 1.33 1.35 3.71 4.01

11.79European Union -7.02-2.4632.5512.36 12.26 2.71 2.83 2.66 31.97 35.01

22.54Former Soviet Union - 12 1.250.5140.8323.95 25.13 1.77 1.68 1.62 39.91 40.32

10.20 Russia 2.710.4215.9010.66 11.75 1.47 1.45 1.35 14.99 15.48

8.71 Ukraine 0.520.1019.909.17 9.20 2.38 2.16 2.16 20.74 19.80

1.18 Uzbekistan -3.57-0.051.351.25 1.20 1.19 1.12 1.13 1.40 1.40

10.52Canada -3.73-1.1028.4612.19 11.68 2.49 2.43 2.44 26.25 29.56

19.73Africa -1.95-0.3718.5919.64 19.60 0.93 0.97 0.95 18.40 18.96

3.57 Nigeria 0.000.003.903.61 3.61 1.04 1.08 1.08 3.72 3.90

1.29 South Africa -0.040.002.501.49 1.59 1.82 1.68 1.57 2.35 2.51

1.40 Tanzania 6.160.071.281.35 1.50 0.85 0.89 0.85 1.19 1.20

3.26Southeast Asia -1.22-0.064.473.22 3.19 1.41 1.40 1.40 4.59 4.52

1.03 Indonesia -2.16-0.041.581.00 0.98 1.64 1.61 1.61 1.69 1.62

1.88 Burma -0.67-0.022.221.88 1.88 1.18 1.19 1.18 2.21 2.24

3.32Australia -16.70-0.884.403.30 2.96 1.70 1.60 1.49 5.66 5.28

1.11Turkey 4.710.153.311.25 1.34 2.49 2.53 2.48 2.76 3.17

1.71Others 6.980.253.831.76 1.82 2.19 2.03 2.10 3.76 3.58

World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and

rapeseed)


Table 11 Soybean Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

118.88World 6.7722.79359.49124.05 130.08 2.93 2.71 2.76 348.12 336.70

33.47United States -1.86-2.22117.3036.23 35.96 3.49 3.30 3.26 116.92 119.52

85.41Total Foreign 11.5125.01242.1987.82 94.12 2.71 2.47 2.57 231.20 217.19

none

South America

33.90 Brazil 0.841.00120.5035.10 37.50 3.38 3.40 3.21 114.60 119.50

17.40 Argentina 54.0520.0057.0016.80 19.00 3.16 2.20 3.00 55.00 37.00

3.40 Paraguay -2.00-0.209.803.46 3.50 3.00 2.89 2.80 10.20 10.00

1.13 Bolivia 3.850.102.701.40 1.40 1.86 1.86 1.93 2.11 2.60

1.10 Uruguay 76.471.303.001.10 1.20 3.04 1.55 2.50 3.34 1.70

East Asia

7.20 China 2.110.3014.507.85 8.10 1.79 1.81 1.79 12.90 14.20

0.05 Korea, South 16.280.010.100.05 0.06 1.53 1.87 1.75 0.08 0.09

0.18 Korea, North 0.900.000.230.15 0.15 1.61 1.49 1.50 0.28 0.22

0.15 Japan 6.020.020.260.15 0.15 1.59 1.66 1.74 0.24 0.25

10.97India 29.342.4510.8010.16 11.50 1.00 0.82 0.94 10.99 8.35

2.23Canada -8.75-0.707.302.90 2.55 2.96 2.76 2.86 6.60 8.00


2.12 Russia 7.710.283.902.57 2.85 1.48 1.41 1.37 3.13 3.62

1.86 Ukraine 7.970.314.201.98 1.85 2.31 1.97 2.27 4.29 3.89

0.80European Union 3.110.082.750.93 0.95 3.00 2.88 2.89 2.41 2.67

Southeast Asia

0.43 Indonesia -3.70-0.020.520.42 0.41 1.31 1.29 1.27 0.57 0.54

0.07 Vietnam 0.000.000.090.06 0.06 1.48 1.50 1.50 0.10 0.09

0.03 Thailand -9.09-0.010.050.04 0.03 1.78 1.57 1.47 0.06 0.06

0.15 Burma 0.000.000.160.15 0.15 1.07 1.07 1.07 0.16 0.16

0.19Serbia 19.570.090.550.20 0.22 3.51 2.30 2.50 0.65 0.46

0.28Mexico 13.160.060.490.26 0.27 1.85 1.65 1.81 0.52 0.43

Africa

0.57 South Africa 1.610.031.580.79 0.90 2.29 1.96 1.75 1.32 1.55

0.61 Nigeria 0.000.000.600.64 0.64 0.96 0.94 0.94 0.59 0.60

0.14 Zambia -14.53-0.050.300.23 0.23 1.94 1.56 1.33 0.27 0.35

0.05 Uganda 0.000.000.030.05 0.05 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.03 0.03

Middle East

0.06 Iran 0.000.000.160.07 0.07 2.25 2.29 2.29 0.14 0.16

0.03 Turkey 5.560.010.100.02 0.03 3.33 3.75 3.65 0.10 0.09

0.31Others -8.10-0.050.530.31 0.30 1.73 1.86 1.77 0.53 0.58



Table 12 Cottonseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

29.07World -1.98-0.8944.1532.75 32.19 1.34 1.38 1.37 39.09 45.04

3.85United States -9.68-0.565.264.49 4.25 1.27 1.30 1.24 4.87 5.83

25.22Total Foreign -0.84-0.3338.8828.26 27.94 1.36 1.39 1.39 34.21 39.21

none

South Asia

10.85 India -1.03-0.1312.1912.40 11.90 1.06 0.99 1.02 11.46 12.31

2.40 Pakistan 5.560.203.802.60 2.70 1.40 1.38 1.41 3.35 3.60

2.90China -3.70-0.4010.403.40 3.35 3.03 3.18 3.10 8.80 10.80


1.18 Uzbekistan -3.57-0.051.351.25 1.20 1.19 1.12 1.13 1.40 1.40

0.55 Turkmenistan 3.000.020.620.55 0.55 0.95 1.10 1.14 0.52 0.60

0.17 Tajikistan -3.89-0.010.170.18 0.19 1.02 1.03 0.91 0.17 0.18

0.12 Kazakhstan 11.200.010.140.13 0.12 0.97 1.00 1.16 0.11 0.13

South America

0.94 Brazil 3.600.113.111.19 1.30 2.44 2.52 2.39 2.30 3.00

0.24 Argentina -0.990.000.300.35 0.30 1.16 0.87 1.00 0.28 0.30

Middle East

0.40 Turkey 7.690.101.400.47 0.52 2.63 2.77 2.69 1.05 1.30

0.04 Syria -18.46-0.010.050.03 0.03 2.00 2.17 2.12 0.08 0.07

0.10 Iran 9.760.010.090.09 0.09 0.98 0.96 1.06 0.10 0.08

0.58Australia -26.67-0.401.100.53 0.43 2.16 2.83 2.56 1.25 1.50

0.27European Union 0.810.000.500.30 0.31 1.53 1.67 1.62 0.42 0.49

Africa

0.70 Burkina 7.800.030.390.85 0.75 0.52 0.42 0.52 0.36 0.36

0.66 Mali 1.570.010.390.73 0.74 0.54 0.52 0.52 0.35 0.38

0.23 Cameroon 0.000.000.250.23 0.23 1.04 1.11 1.11 0.24 0.25

0.35 Cote d'Ivoire -7.62-0.020.190.37 0.37 0.48 0.57 0.52 0.17 0.21

0.42 Benin -2.85-0.010.270.45 0.44 0.66 0.62 0.62 0.27 0.28

0.40 Tanzania 73.270.070.180.35 0.50 0.21 0.29 0.35 0.09 0.10

0.06 Egypt 40.660.040.130.09 0.13 0.95 1.00 1.02 0.05 0.09

0.28 Nigeria 0.000.000.100.27 0.27 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.10 0.10

0.07 Uganda 0.000.000.110.08 0.08 1.49 1.45 1.45 0.11 0.11

0.21 Zimbabwe 2.350.000.090.20 0.23 0.25 0.43 0.38 0.05 0.09

0.10 Sudan 5.350.010.260.12 0.12 1.93 2.03 2.13 0.19 0.24

0.10Mexico 12.500.070.590.21 0.23 2.50 2.53 2.58 0.26 0.53

0.24Burma -4.84-0.020.300.25 0.24 1.17 1.24 1.23 0.29 0.31

0.70Others 7.520.030.430.63 0.65 0.59 0.63 0.66 0.42 0.40



Table 13 Peanut Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

26.71World -1.96-0.8944.5726.15 26.03 1.68 1.74 1.71 44.86 45.46

0.62United States -16.15-0.532.750.72 0.59 4.07 4.56 4.65 2.53 3.28

26.09Total Foreign -0.85-0.3641.8225.43 25.44 1.62 1.66 1.64 42.33 42.18

none

4.73China 1.690.3018.104.90 5.00 3.66 3.63 3.62 17.29 17.80

Africa

2.68 Nigeria 0.000.003.202.70 2.70 1.13 1.19 1.19 3.03 3.20

2.32 Sudan 0.000.001.401.80 1.80 0.79 0.78 0.78 1.83 1.40

1.15 Senegal -29.18-0.411.001.25 1.10 0.82 1.13 0.91 0.95 1.41

0.45 Cameroon 0.000.000.600.43 0.43 1.65 1.40 1.40 0.75 0.60

0.34 Ghana 0.000.000.440.34 0.34 1.24 1.31 1.31 0.42 0.44

0.97 Chad 0.000.001.000.95 0.95 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.00

0.37 Malawi 0.000.000.330.37 0.37 0.74 0.88 0.88 0.28 0.33

0.50 Congo (Kinshasa) 0.000.000.420.50 0.50 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.42 0.42

0.77 Niger 0.000.000.400.75 0.75 0.59 0.53 0.53 0.45 0.40

0.43 Mali 23.080.080.400.38 0.38 0.87 0.87 1.07 0.37 0.33

0.43 Uganda 0.000.000.300.43 0.43 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.30 0.30

0.42 Burkina 0.000.000.350.43 0.43 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.34 0.35

0.27 Guinea 0.000.000.360.30 0.30 1.39 1.20 1.20 0.38 0.36

0.06 Egypt 0.000.000.210.06 0.06 3.20 3.20 3.20 0.21 0.21

0.11 Central African Republic 0.000.000.150.10 0.10 1.21 1.50 1.50 0.14 0.15

0.06 South Africa 12.500.010.090.06 0.06 2.20 1.45 1.64 0.12 0.08

0.40 Mozambique 0.000.000.110.29 0.29 0.28 0.38 0.38 0.11 0.11

0.08 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.110.08 0.08 1.35 1.38 1.38 0.11 0.11

0.16 Benin 0.000.000.140.15 0.15 0.86 0.93 0.93 0.14 0.14

South Asia

5.34 India -7.69-0.506.005.00 5.20 1.25 1.30 1.15 6.70 6.50

0.09 Pakistan 2.270.000.090.09 0.10 0.90 0.94 0.95 0.09 0.09

Southeast Asia

0.60 Indonesia -1.40-0.021.060.58 0.57 1.87 1.85 1.86 1.12 1.08

0.89 Burma 0.000.001.380.89 0.89 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.38 1.38

0.20 Vietnam 0.000.000.450.19 0.19 2.37 2.37 2.37 0.46 0.45

0.02 Thailand 0.000.000.040.02 0.02 1.67 1.67 1.67 0.04 0.04

South America

0.32 Argentina 35.100.281.070.36 0.33 3.98 2.18 3.24 1.29 0.79

0.13 Brazil 2.340.010.530.14 0.15 3.61 3.69 3.50 0.47 0.51

0.06Mexico 0.000.000.100.06 0.06 1.71 1.70 1.70 0.10 0.10

1.75Others -5.18-0.112.021.84 1.74 1.16 1.15 1.16 2.04 2.13



Table 14 Sunflowerseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

25.41World -0.85-0.4046.9025.57 26.24 1.89 1.85 1.79 47.97 47.30

0.62United States 1.830.021.000.54 0.57 1.94 1.81 1.76 1.20 0.98

24.79Total Foreign -0.90-0.4245.9025.02 25.67 1.89 1.85 1.79 46.77 46.32

none


7.18 Russia 1.330.1410.507.15 7.50 1.51 1.45 1.40 10.86 10.36

6.40 Ukraine -1.46-0.2013.506.40 6.50 2.38 2.14 2.08 15.20 13.70

0.81 Kazakhstan 10.740.101.000.88 0.93 0.94 1.02 1.08 0.76 0.90

4.13European Union -5.98-0.589.104.31 4.25 2.08 2.25 2.14 8.60 9.68

South America

1.82 Argentina 0.000.003.501.67 1.75 1.95 2.10 2.00 3.55 3.50

0.04 Uruguay 15.380.010.090.05 0.06 1.50 1.56 1.61 0.07 0.08

0.14 Bolivia -23.81-0.030.080.13 0.12 0.80 0.80 0.70 0.11 0.11

0.06 Brazil -0.710.000.140.09 0.09 1.65 1.58 1.56 0.10 0.14

0.03 Paraguay 1.890.000.050.03 0.03 1.60 1.66 1.69 0.05 0.05

1.15China 4.170.133.251.25 1.25 2.59 2.50 2.60 2.99 3.12

South Asia

0.38 India 26.350.070.350.33 0.43 0.72 0.84 0.81 0.28 0.28

0.07 Pakistan -16.67-0.020.080.08 0.07 1.07 1.13 1.07 0.08 0.09

Middle East

0.60 Turkey 1.940.031.580.70 0.73 2.20 2.21 2.18 1.32 1.55

0.04 Iran 0.000.000.040.04 0.04 0.98 1.08 1.08 0.04 0.04

0.01 Israel 0.000.000.020.01 0.01 1.60 1.60 1.60 0.02 0.02

Africa

0.01 Egypt 0.000.000.020.01 0.01 2.43 2.38 2.38 0.02 0.02

0.02 Morocco 0.000.000.030.02 0.02 1.29 1.29 1.29 0.03 0.03

0.64 South Africa -5.00-0.040.760.61 0.60 1.37 1.32 1.27 0.87 0.80

0.60Burma 0.000.000.390.60 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.39 0.39

0.03Canada -5.170.000.060.03 0.03 1.82 2.23 2.20 0.05 0.06

0.03Australia 9.680.000.030.02 0.03 1.14 1.82 1.13 0.03 0.03

0.61Others -2.83-0.041.340.63 0.64 2.25 2.20 2.08 1.36 1.38



Table 15 Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jul 2016/17 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

34.09World -3.10-2.3272.4435.76 36.34 2.09 2.09 1.99 71.33 74.75

0.69United States 6.600.091.520.81 0.82 2.04 1.75 1.86 1.41 1.42

33.40Total Foreign -3.29-2.4170.9234.94 35.53 2.09 2.10 2.00 69.92 73.33

none

6.58European Union -8.87-1.9720.206.83 6.75 3.12 3.25 2.99 20.55 22.17

8.26Canada -1.86-0.4021.109.26 9.10 2.37 2.32 2.32 19.60 21.50

7.33China -1.39-0.2014.207.20 7.10 1.98 2.00 2.00 14.55 14.40

South Asia

6.07 India 11.110.656.505.85 6.50 1.17 1.00 1.00 7.09 5.85

0.21 Pakistan 0.000.000.230.24 0.23 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.20 0.23

0.25 Bangladesh 0.000.000.230.25 0.25 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.23 0.23


0.91 Russia 0.200.001.500.95 1.40 1.10 1.58 1.07 1.00 1.50

0.45 Ukraine -0.32-0.012.200.79 0.85 2.78 2.79 2.59 1.25 2.21

0.21 Belarus -8.79-0.050.550.33 0.35 1.24 1.81 1.57 0.26 0.60

0.16 Kazakhstan -1.430.000.280.25 0.25 1.06 1.11 1.10 0.17 0.28

2.68Australia -12.81-0.473.202.70 2.45 1.61 1.36 1.31 4.31 3.67

South America

0.05 Chile 9.660.020.230.05 0.05 3.98 4.14 4.20 0.18 0.21

0.03 Paraguay -16.67-0.010.050.04 0.03 2.00 1.50 1.67 0.05 0.06

0.02Switzerland 0.000.000.070.02 0.02 3.14 3.14 3.14 0.07 0.07

0.02Ethiopia -8.33-0.010.060.04 0.04 1.79 1.71 1.57 0.04 0.06

0.17Others 9.770.030.340.15 0.15 2.26 2.10 2.19 0.38 0.31



Table 16 Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Production

Country / Region

Production


2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

2018/19 Proj.

Jul MMT Percent MMT Percent



Oilseed, Copra

0.10 3.85 Philippines 2.30 2.702.60

-0.03 -2.07 Indonesia 1.58 1.421.45

0.00 0.00 India 0.72 0.750.75

0.00 0.00 Vietnam 0.26 0.290.28

0.01 4.76 Mexico 0.21 0.220.21

0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.10 0.100.10

0.00 0.00 Thailand 0.07 0.070.07

0.00 0.00 Sri Lanka 0.07 0.070.07

0.00 0.00 Solomon Islands 0.03 0.030.03

0.00 0.00 Vanuatu/New Hebrides 0.03 0.030.03

0.10 1.75 World 5.51 5.835.73

Oilseed, Palm Kernel

0.40 3.92 Indonesia 9.50 10.6010.20

0.10 1.92 Malaysia 4.78 5.305.20

0.05 6.10 Thailand 0.75 0.870.82

0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.73 0.730.73

-0.02 -5.88 Colombia 0.24 0.320.34

0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.16 0.170.17

0.00 0.00 Guatemala 0.15 0.150.15

0.00 0.00 Honduras 0.14 0.140.14

0.01 7.69 Brazil 0.12 0.140.13

0.00 0.00 Ecuador 0.11 0.120.12

0.53 2.84 World 17.36 19.2118.68

Oil, Palm

2.00 5.19 Indonesia 36.00 40.5038.50

0.50 2.44 Malaysia 18.86 21.0020.50

0.20 7.41 Thailand 2.50 2.902.70

-0.10 -6.13 Colombia 1.15 1.531.63

0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.97 0.970.97

0.00 0.00 Guatemala 0.74 0.740.74

0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.65 0.630.63

0.02 3.39 Ecuador 0.57 0.610.59

0.00 0.00 Honduras 0.62 0.580.58

0.00 0.00 Ghana 0.52 0.520.52

2.66 3.79 World 65.26 72.7670.10



Table 17 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production


MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Jul 2016/17 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)


2016/17

Prel.

2017/18

Prel.

2017/18 Jul

Prel.

2017/18 Jul Percent

2018/19 Proj.2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.

2016/17

29.71World -2.90-3.58120.1133.38 32.83 781 807 796 106.63 123.69

3.85United States -11.58-2.4218.504.49 4.25 972 1,014 947 17.17 20.92

25.86Total Foreign -1.13-1.16101.6128.89 28.58 753 774 774 89.46 102.77

none

South Asia

10.85 India -1.03-0.3028.7012.40 11.90 542 509 525 27.00 29.00

2.40 Pakistan 3.660.308.502.60 2.70 699 687 685 7.70 8.20

2.90China -3.64-1.0026.503.40 3.35 1,708 1,761 1,722 22.75 27.50

South America

0.94 Brazil 3.260.309.501.19 1.30 1,626 1,683 1,591 7.02 9.20

0.24 Argentina 0.610.010.830.35 0.30 680 510 599 0.75 0.82

0.01 Paraguay 0.000.000.020.01 0.01 416 416 416 0.02 0.02

Africa

0.70 Burkina 7.690.101.400.85 0.75 407 333 406 1.31 1.30

0.66 Mali 1.480.021.370.73 0.74 412 403 403 1.24 1.35

0.35 Cote d'Ivoire -7.64-0.060.730.37 0.37 394 467 427 0.63 0.79

0.42 Benin -2.86-0.030.850.45 0.44 433 423 421 0.83 0.88

0.06 Egypt 40.000.120.420.09 0.13 673 718 732 0.17 0.30

0.23 Cameroon 0.000.000.500.23 0.23 455 484 484 0.47 0.50

0.40 Tanzania 73.910.170.400.35 0.50 106 143 174 0.20 0.23

0.28 Nigeria 0.000.000.240.27 0.27 182 190 190 0.23 0.24

0.21 Zimbabwe 2.220.010.230.20 0.23 146 245 218 0.14 0.23

0.08 Ethiopia 0.000.000.180.06 0.07 550 635 586 0.21 0.18


1.18 Uzbekistan -5.06-0.203.751.25 1.20 687 688 680 3.73 3.95

0.55 Turkmenistan 2.940.041.400.55 0.55 529 543 559 1.33 1.36

0.17 Tajikistan -3.64-0.020.530.18 0.19 567 684 607 0.43 0.55

0.12 Kazakhstan -5.17-0.020.280.13 0.12 568 505 499 0.30 0.29

Middle East

0.40 Turkey 7.500.304.300.47 0.52 1,742 1,853 1,800 3.20 4.00

0.04 Syria -18.75-0.030.130.03 0.03 1,089 1,161 1,132 0.20 0.16

0.10 Iran 10.000.030.280.09 0.09 653 640 704 0.30 0.25

0.58Australia -24.49-1.203.700.53 0.43 1,520 2,013 1,873 4.05 4.90

0.10Mexico 12.470.191.750.21 0.23 1,602 1,621 1,657 0.77 1.56

0.24Burma -3.45-0.030.700.25 0.24 634 634 635 0.71 0.73

1.69Others 3.200.144.451.68 1.72 490 559 563 3.80 4.31



TABLE 18 The table below presents a record of the July projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.9 percent. The average difference between the July projection and the final estimate is 14.6 million tons, ranging from 1 million to 34.6 million tons. The July projection has been below the estimate 23 times and above 14 times.

RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/

COMMODITY AND REGION

Root mean square error

90 percent confidence

interval

Difference between forecast and final estimate

Average Smallest Largest

Years Below final

Above final

Percent ---Million metric tons---

WHEAT

World 2.9 4.9 14.6 1.0 34.6 23 14

U.S. 3.5 6.0 1.6 0.2 6.2 17 20

Foreign 3.1 5.3 14.3 0.3 34.7 24 13

COARSE GRAINS 2/

World 2.9 4.9 22.3 1.3 68.4 19 18

U.S. 10.3 17.4 16.0 0.6 57.9 18 19

Foreign 2.5 4.2 13.8 1.1 40.5 19 18

RICE (Milled)

World 2.4 4.1 6.9 0.4 24.0 23 14

U.S. 5.1 8.6 0.2 0.0 0.7 18 17

Foreign 2.4 4.1 6.9 0.5 24.3 23 14

SOYBEANS

World 5.2 8.8 7.6 0.5 26.9 17 20

U.S. 7.1 12.0 3.6 0.2 11.7 19 18

Foreign 7.6 12.9 6.8 1.0 25.8 20 17

COTTON ---Million 480-lb. bales---

World 5.8 9.9 4.0 0.0 14.9 23 14

U.S. 9.9 16.8 1.4 0.1 5.3 21 16

Foreign 6.0 10.1 3.2 0.0 12.1 21 15

UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------

CORN 11.2 19.1 577 12 2,190 21 16

SORGHUM 18.3 31.1 70 3 213 20 17

BARLEY 7.9 13.4 21 0 87 13 23

OATS 12.5 21.2 20 0 144 6 30

1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2016/17. Final for grains, soybeans and cotton is defined as the first November estimates following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2016/17, and for 2017/18 last month’s estimate. 2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain

July 2018 Office of Global Analysis, FAS, USDA


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