universal postal union - upu.int · world meteorological organization working together in weather,...

Climate change and natural hazards 1

WMO

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

Climate change and natural hazards

WMO – Cabinet and External Relations Department www.wmo.int

WMO

Universal Postal UnionCOUNCIL OF ADMINISTRATION/POSTAL OPERATIONS COUNCIL

Bern, 5 November 2010

Christian BLONDINWorld Meteorological Organization

[email protected]


WMO

Agenda

�Climate change: few facts

�Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: past and future

trends

�WMO experience in Emergency Assistance and

Prevention/Preparedness

Background information

� Climate change adaptation: the role of WMO

� Framework for Disaster Risk Management and Early Warning Systems


WMO

� For centuries man has tried to change the weather

� He has succeeded in changing climate

� Climate change difficult to explain in everyday terms:

� Uncertainty is not a lack of consensus

� Most scientists write for peers

� A specialized vocabulary

� Simultaneous effects are difficult to discriminate

Weather & climate


WMO

Abrupt change & uncertainties

� Transitions between equilibrium states

� Abrupt transitions� Uncertainties� Climate models� Scenarios


WMO

IPCC 4th Assessment Report

� 1988: WMO & UNEP established the IPCC� Previous reports approved in 1990, 1995 & 2001� 2007: 4th Assessment Report approved & Nobel

Peace Prize� 5th Assessment Report to be finalized by 2014


WMO

2008 Global Climate assessment2008 Global Climate assessment

� The year 2008 ranked as one of the warmest years on recordaccording to the analyses

made by leading climate centres. The Met Office Hadley Centre analyses showed that

the global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2008 was 0.31°C

(0.56°F) above the 1961–1990 annual averageof 14.0°C (57.2°F), ranking 2008 as the tenth warmest yearon record.

� Arctic sea-ice extentduring the 2008 melt season dropped to its second-lowest levelsince satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual

cycle of melt and growth on 14 September 2008.

� Several extreme weather and climate eventswere recorded in various parts of the

world in 2008, of which perhaps the most dramatic was tropical cyclone Nargis, which

made landfall in Myanmar in May, causing catastrophic destruction and more than70 000 fatalities.

� Other parts of the world suffered severe flooding, extreme heat waves and droughts.


WMO

Observed climate change & its impactsObserved climate change & its impacts

� Warming unequivocal� Rising global air & ocean average

temperatures� Rising average sea level� Widespread melting of snow & ice

� Some predicted impacts:�Warming ~ 0,2 °C/decade over next 20 years�~ 18-59 cm projected sea-level rise by end of century�Increased frequency & intensity of extreme events�neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all impacts, but they can complement each other to significantly reduce risks


WMO

Increase in Heavy Precipitation


WMO

Tropical cyclones

~100 cyclones per year

J. Kossin, UNESCO, Sep 2010

Summary

Heterogeneity in the tropical cyclone records conti nues to pose challenges in trend detection of all metrics, but p rogress is being made along a number of fronts.

There is evidence that the most intense tropical cy clones have become stronger, in a manner congruent with extant theory and numerical simulations.

Despite the observed intensity increases, overall g lobal activity, which also incorporates frequency and duration, exh ibits no obvious trend over the past 30 years.

Continued progress will be made through improved nu merical simulation, more complete development of theoretica l frameworks, and further quantification of past (and future) observational biases and discontinuities.


WMO

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Tsunami

1%

Wild Fires

2%

Windstorm

43%

Earthquake

22%

Drought

5%

Extreme

Temp.

2%Flood

25%

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net- UniversitéCatholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

90% of events70% of casualties 75% of economic losses

Economic losses

Loss of life

Number ofevents

Volcano

1,6%

Tsunami

0,4%

Epidemic,

insects

13%

Wild Fires

3%

Windstorm

27%

Earthquake

8%

Drought

5%

Extreme

Temp.

4%

Flood

33%

Slides

5%

Volcano

1%Tsunami

12%Epidemic,

insects

10%

Windstorm

15%

Earthquake

16%

Drought

30%

Extreme

Temp.

5% Flood

10%

are related to hydro-meteorologicalhazards and conditions.


WMO

Disaster Losses, Total and Share of GDP, Richest and Poorest Nations (1985-1999)

Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up…

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

4 11 1424

47

88

160

345

103

495

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Billions of USD per decade

decade

0.05

2.66

0.17

1.73

0.39

0.65

0.220.25

0.67

0.22

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Millions of casualties per decade

decade

While casualties related to hydro-

meteorological disasters are

decreasing

Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

12Climate change and natural hazards 12

WMO

Info to donors

(1) Assessment of urgent needs

(2) Identification of medium- andlong-term requirements

DonorsDonors’ reaction

Offers of support

EARTSecretariatDonorsetc.

Co-ordination

Implementationof co-ordinatedassistance

Emergency Assistance Fund

WMO VCP

Bilateral agreements

Gov. Aid Package

Emergency Assistance: Field MissionEmergency Assistance: Field Mission


WMO

Major achievements

• Improvement in the range and accuracy of weather forecasts: today a five day weather forecast is as reliable as a two-day forecast 20 years ago.

• Weather forecasts reach everywhere in the world in real time, between 2 to 3 hours.

• El Niño can now be forecast 5 to 6 months in advance.

• Global awareness about climate changeand the dangers posed by natural disasters.

• Improved assessment and management of water resources.

• Awarding more than 3 000 fellowshipsin the last decade for the training of scientists, thereby raising the level of scientific knowledge in over 150 countries.

• IPCC awarded Nobel Peace prize in 2007


WMO

Simplified Schematic of Linkages in

Climate and Disaster Risk Management

Climate Mitigation

Emission reduction

Climate AdaptationMulti-sectoral planning and risk management

Incremental cumulative risk

Meteorological, Hydrological and climate extremes

Geological

Disaster Risk Management


WMO

A Global Framework for Climate Services

�WCC-3 key outcome�4 major components:

�Observation & monitoring�Research and modelling�Climate services

information system �Climate services

applications (New!)�A framework to support:

�Disaster risk management�Climate change adaptation�Achievement of UN MDGs


WMO

Thank youfor yourattention

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO


WMO

The Earth's protective blanket

� Climate variability: long-term climate fluctuations

� Natural greenhouse effect: the atmosphere as a blanket

� Blanket has kept global mean temperature at ~15 oC

� Climate change:human activities increase blanket effect


WMO

Greenhouse gas generation & abundance

(a) Global emissions of principal anthropogenic GHGs 1970 to 2004 (b) Distribution of anthropogenic GHGs in 2004: CO2-equivalent total emissions(c) Distribution of anthropogenic GHG emitting sectors in 2004: CO2-equivalent total emissions (forestry includes deforestation)


WMO

Climate change adaptation: the role of WMO

�Observation systems

�Research activities

�Capacity building

�Regional Climate Centres

�Regional Training Centres

�Human resources reinforcement

�WMO Programme for LDCs


WMO

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Programme

� Prediction and early warnings on natural disasters

� Contribution to Hyogo Framework for Action

� Partnership with IOC/UNESCO in Tsunami Warning System

�Development of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

� Focus on preparedness & risk reduction


WMO

Example of WMO coordinated Research Example of WMO coordinated Research ProgrammeProgramme: THORPEX: THORPEX

Image 06/08/2010 – 06:00 TU – Monsoon –heavy rains in Pakistan and India; Heat wave and drought in

Russia; start of the Cyclone season affecting the Caribbean (cf. Haiti):

To what extent and with which delays these hazards can be forecast?


WMO

Example of WMO coordinated Research Example of WMO coordinated Research ProgrammeProgramme: THORPEX: THORPEX


WMO

WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

189 Members

Data policy and Exchange:

Resolutions 40 (Cg XII) and 29 (Cg XIII)


WMO

WMOWMO ’’ ss Global Tropical CycloneGlobal Tropical CycloneEarly Warning SystemEarly Warning System


WMO

Disaster Losses, Total and Share of GDP, Richest and Poorest Nations (1985-1999)


WMO

Marine

Health (etc.)…

Geological

Communitiesat risk

hazard warning

National to local governments

Hydrological

Meteorological

NATIONAL SERVICES

post-disaster

response

Most countries are in relief and responsemode!

hazard

warn

ing

Early warning systemsare not an integral part of

disaster riskmanagement!


WMO

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health (etc.)

COORDINATION AMONGNATIONAL SERVICES

feedback

feedback

Community Preparedness

warnings

Alignment ofnational to local policies, plans, resources and coordination mechanisms

warnings

feedback

Investments in Early Warning Systems!

warnings

preventiveactions

1

2

3

4

5

5

33

5

Need to shift to Preparedness!


WMO

1. Identification of various user-communities and their requirements

– (eg: Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water, Insurance)

2. Increased investments in observations, data rescue programmes and statistical analysis of hazards

3. Climate forecasting technologies(seasonal, interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented opportunityfor improved sectoral planning for DRR

– Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for DRM– Need Operationalize climate forecasting and analysis tools

4. Developing climate related information and decision tools for DRR

WCC-III Recommendations on Climate Services for DRM


WMO

Example of Climate Services in Risk Reduction(Many other examples exist)

Season to yearNext hour to

10 daysDecade Long term

Scenarios

Short to medtermweather forecasts:

Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings

Probabilistic seasonalforecasts: Probabilities of

severity and intensity of tropical cyclones

Future Decadaltrend analysis: of

severity and intensity of tropical

cyclones

ClimateChange

scenarios –IPCC Process

�Emergency planning activation and response�Evacuations, inventory, preparinghouses

�Strategic Planning�Building codes�Infrastructure & Urban Developmentand Retrofitting�Land Zoning and Planning

�Urban & coastalEmergency Preparedness�Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds

�Emergency Services�GovernmentAuthorities�Insurance�Public, Media

�Urban planners�Local to national Governments�Banks�Insurance

DE

CIS

ION

M

AK

ER

SD

EC

ISIO

NS

SE

RV

ICE

S

�Local – National Government�Insurance�Suppliers�Public, Media

�Negotiators�Parlimentarian�Local/nationalgovernments�Private sector

�International negotiations and agreements�National policies and legilation

universal postal union - upu.int · world meteorological organization working together in weather,...

Documents