UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA

HABIBEH VALIZADEH ALVAN

FK 2013 118

DETECTION OF PRECURSORY SIGNALS OF PAST EARTHQUAKES USING INTEGRATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL PARAMETERS

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DETECTION OF PRECURSORY SIGNALS OF PAST EARTHQUAKES USING

INTEGRATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL PARAMETERS

By

HABIBEH VALIZADEH ALVAN

Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, University Putra Malaysia, in

fulfilment of the Requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

August 2013

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COPYRIGHT

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University Putra Malaysia unless otherwise stated. Used of may be made of

any material contained within the thesis for non-commercial purposes from

the copyright holder. Commercial use of material may only be made with

the express, prior, written permission of University Putra Malaysia.

Copyright © University Putra Malaysia

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Abstract of thesis presented to the Senate of University Putra Malaysia in fulfillment of

the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

DETECTION OF PRECURSORY SIGNALS OF PAST EARTHQUAKES USING

INTEGRATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL PARAMETERS

By

HABIBEH VALIZADEH ALVAN

August 2013

Chairman: Husaini B. Omar, PhD

Faculty: Engineering

The preparation process of an impending earthquake may leave fingerprints on the

earth’s surface. Earthquakes are triggered when the energy accumulated in rocks

releases causing ruptures in the ground or movements in place of the existing faults.

Elastic strain in rocks, formation of micro-cracks, gas releases and other chemical or

physical activities in the earth’s crust before and during earthquakes has been reported

to cause rises in temperature, surface latent heat flux (SLHF), upwelling index and

chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration on the ground or sea surface. This study examines

variations of the mentioned factors before several past oceanic, coastal earthquakes

occurred at the Pacific and Indian Oceans together with two pairs of successive inland

earthquakes in Kerman and Azerbaijan provinces, Iran. The sudden partial releases of

the elastic energy which has resulted to the main events are believed to be detected by

seismographs and remote sensing techniques. Pre-earthquake anomalies prior to all case

study earthquakes were detected. Our detailed analyses on oceanic/coastal earthquakes

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revealed 1–5°C rises in surface temperature in epicenter areas. Considerable anomalies

in Chl-a concentration, five weeks to a day before the earthquake events which are

accompanied by the raises in upwelling indices were detected. Time series of SLHF also

showed meaningful rises from one month to one week before the main events. The

anomalous patterns started developing several weeks before earthquakes and

disappeared after the main shocks. Significant rises in SLHF may lead us to understand

the energy exchange mechanism during earthquakes and at the period of aftershocks, as

well.

The most interesting factor which yielded considerable results for almost all earthquake

instances was SLHF. In case of offshore and coastal earthquakes the Chl-a was found to

be the most common precursor. Most of the anomalous patterns were in accordance

with local and regional active faults which have been already proposed as triggering

structures by international research organizations. The seismographic records were also

successfully used for confirmation of the earth’s movements during the preparation

stage of the main event of Ahar as an underlying cause for remotely sensible

phenomena.

The author strongly believes that with proper use of remote sensing data, expert analysis

of seismographs from nearby stations (which unfortunately are not existing

everywhere), advanced in-situ measurement devices, and thorough information about

local and regional active faults developing local earthquake prediction systems for

earthquake prone region would not be impossible.

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Abstrak tesis yang dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia sebagai

memenuhi keperluan untuk ijazah Doktor Falsafah

PENGESANAN ISYARAT AWAL GEMPA BUMI YANG LEPAS

MENGGUNAKAN INTEGRASI PARAMETERS RUAWG-MASA

Oleh

HABIBEH VALIZADEH ALVAN

Ogos 2013

Pengerusi: Husaini B. Omar, PhD

Fakulti: Kejuruteraan

Proses penyediaan gempa bumi yang bakal berlaku boleh meninggalkan kesan pada

permukaan bumi. Gempa bumi yang dicetuskan apabila tenaga yang terkumpul di dalam

batu membebaskan menyebabkan pecah dalam tanah atau pergerakan di tempat

kesalahan yang sedia ada. Terikan anjal dalam batu, pembentukan mikro-retak, siaran

gas dan aktiviti kimia atau fizikal yang lain dalam kerak bumi sebelum dan semasa

gempa bumi telah dilaporkan menyebabkan kenaikan suhu, permukaan terpendam fluks

haba (SLHF), upwelling indeks dan kepekatan klorofil-a di atas tanah atau permukaan

laut (Chl-a). Kajian ini mengkaji variasi faktor-faktor yang disebutkan sebelum ini

beberapa lautan yang lalu, gempa bumi berlaku di pantai Pasifik dan Lautan India

bersama-sama dengan dua pasang gempa bumi pedalaman berturut-turut di Kerman dan

wilayah Azerbaijan, Iran. Pengeluaran secara tiba-tiba sebahagian daripada tenaga anjal

yang telah mengakibatkan kepada peristiwa-peristiwa utama yang dipercayai dikesan

oleh seismograf dan teknik penderiaan jauh. Anomali pra-gempa bumi sebelum gempa

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bumi semua kajian kes telah dikesan. Analisis terperinci mengenai lautan/gempa bumi

pantai mendedahkan 1-5° C kenaikan suhu permukaan di kawasan pusat. Anomali besar

dalam Chl-a, lima minggu ke sehari sebelum kejadian gempa bumi serta kenaikan

indeks upwelling telah dikesan. Siri masa SLHF juga menunjukkan peningkatan yang

bermakna dari satu bulan satu minggu sebelum peristiwa-peristiwa utama. Corak

anomali mula kilihatan beberapa minggu sebelum gempa bumi dan hilang selepas

kejutan utama. Peningkatan yang ketara dalam SLHF boleh membawa kita untuk

memahami mekanisme pertukaran tenaga semasa gempa bumi dan pada tempoh gempa

susulan.

Yang paling menarik faktor yang memberikan keputusan yang besar untuk hampir

semua kejadian gempa bumi adalah SLHF. Dalam kes gempa bumi luar pesisir dan

pantai Chl-a didapati yang paling biasa. Kebanyakan corak ganjil adalah selaras dengan

kesalahan aktif tempatan dan serantau yang telah pun dicadangkan sebagai mencetuskan

struktur oleh organisasi penyelidikan antarabangsa. Rekod seismograph juga berjaya

digunakan untuk pengesahan pergerakan bumi pada peringkat penyediaan satu acara

utama Ahar sebagai penyebab untuk fenomena jauh waras. Penulis percaya bahawa

dengan penggunaan yang betul data remote sensing, analisis pakar seismograf dari

stesen berdekatan (yang malangnya tidak ada di mana-mana), maju dalam-situ alat

pengukuran, dan maklumat yang menyeluruh tentang kesilapan aktif tempatan dan

serantau membangunkan sistem ramalan gempa bumi tempatan bagi kawasan gempa

bumi cenderung tidak akan menjadi mustahil.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

My first and foremost gratitude is expressed to my supervisor, Prof. Husaini Omar, for

his generous supports, apt guidance and invaluable advice provided an endless

enthusiasm at each step of my PhD research through the four years. He made this work

an exciting challenge and I have learned a lot during this time under his supervision.

I extend my sincere gratitude to Prof. Shattri Mansor, my co-supervisor, the person who

nominated me in a joint research project and kept faith on my abilities for this entire

PhD periods. He kept my confidence and spirit high throughout the research work and

his professional yet friendly and humorous ways of communication has helped in the

successful completion of the thesis with ease and comfort. The encouragement and

support I received from him to carry out this research work made me strong to reach at

this position finally.

I sincerely thank Dr. Ahmad Rodzi, my other co-supervisor, who helped me steer

through my work with much dexterity and tried to bring out the weakness in my work

very accurately, which helped me shape my work in proper direction.

I am grateful to all data providers and the NASA teams. We thank to the scientists of

International Research Institute of Climate and Society (IRI/LDEO) and Asia Pacific

Data Research Center (APDRC). We also acknowledge the MODIS mission scientists

and associated NASA personnel for the production of the data used in this research

effort. We thank to the IRIS data management center. The seismic instruments were

provided by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) through the

PASSCAL Instrument Center at New Mexico Tech. Upwelling indices for the Pacific

Ocean have been downloaded from Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory (PFEL).

AMSR-E data is provided by the National Space Development Agency of Japan

(NASDA).

I would like to thank all my friends and colleagues at the university, for their continuous

supports and encouragements. I enjoyed every moment we have had together during

these years. To my office-mates for the giggling moments we had together. Thanks also

to all UPM staff in general. Thanks to the people at the Department of Civil

engineering, UPM. Special thanks go to my lecturers for their valuable insight to make

this thesis successful.

Last but not least, I wish to express my deepest gratitude to my family for their endless

love, unwavering support, understanding and encouragement which have made life

much easier. Thank to them for bringing me up to an educational level to be able to

pursue science.

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APPROVAL

I certify that a Thesis Examination Committee has met on 30th August, 2013 to conduct

the final examination of Habibeh Valizadeh Alvan on her thesis entitled “Detection of

precursory signals of past earthquakes using integration of spatio-temporal parameters”

in accordance with the Universities and University Colleges Act 1971 and the

Constitution of the University Putra Malaysia [P.U. (A) 106] 15 March 1998. The

committee recommends that the student be awarded Doctor of Philosophy.

Members of the Thesis Examination Committee were as follows:

Thamer Ahmed Mohamed, PhD

Professor

Faculty of Engineering

Universiti Putra Malaysia

(Chairman)

Ratnasamy Muniandy, PhD

Professor

Faculty of Engineering

Universiti Putra Malaysia

(Internal Examiner)

Helmi Zulfadli Mohd Shafri, PhD

Associate Professor

Faculty of Engineering

Universiti Putra Malaysia

(Internal Examiner)

Arun K. Saraf, PhD

Professor

Department of Earth Sciences

Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee

India

(External Examiner)

NORITAH OMAR, PhD

Associate Professor and Deputy Dean

School of Graduate Studies

Universiti Putra Malaysia

Date: 17 October 2013

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This thesis was submitted to the senate of University Putra Malaysia and has been

accepted as fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The

members of the Supervisory Committee were as follows:

Husaini B. Omar, PhD

Professor

Faculty of Engineering

Universiti Putra Malaysia

(Chairman)

Shattri B. Mansor, PhD

Professor

Faculty of Engineering

Universiti Putra Malaysia

(Member)

Ahmad Rodzi Mahmud, PhD

Associate Professor

Department of Civil Engineering

University Putra Malaysia

(Member)

BUJANG BIN KIM HUAT, PhD

Professor and Dean

School of Graduate Studies

Universiti Putra Malaysia

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DECLARATION

I declare that the thesis is my original work except for quotations and citations which

have been duly acknowledged. I also declare that it has not been previously, and is not

concurrently, submitted for any other degree at Universiti Putra Malaysia or at any other

institution.

HABIBEH VALIZADEH ALVAN

Date: 30 August 2013

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT i

ABSTRAK iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v

APPROVAL vii

DECLARATION viii

LIST OF TABLES xi

LIST OF FIGURES xii

LIST OF APPENDICES xviii

CHAPTER

1 INTRODUCTION 1

Scientific background 1

Problem statement 3

Research objectives 5

Research questions 6

Structure of thesis 7

2 LITERATURE REVIEW 10

2.1 Introduction 10

2.2 Earthquake types 12

2.3 Stages of an earthquake 13

2.4 Earthquake magnitude scales 14

2.5 Long-term prediction 15

2.6 Short-term prediction 17

2.7 Seismographic study 20

2.8 Earthquake and active faulting 21

2.9 Earthquake Precursors 28

2.9.1 Crust Displacement 28

2.9.2 Thermal Anomaly 30

2.9.2.1 Surface latent heat flux 32

2.9.2.2 Surface Temperature 35

2.9.2.3 Air temperature 36

2.9.2.4 Cloud formation 38

2.9.3 Electro-Magnetic Emissions 40

2.9.4 Radon Gas Emission 42

2.9.5 Water level changes 45

2.9.6 Chlorophyll Concentration 46

2.9.7 Sea surface height anomaly 48

2.9.8 Total ozone column 49

2.9.9 Relative humidity 50

2.10 Seismology 51

2.11 Summary 53

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3 DATA AND METHODOLOGY 57

3.1 Introduction 57

3.2 Overview of the research steps 58

3.3 Selection of the study area 64

3.4 Data acquisition and analysis 64

3.4.1 Surface latent heat flux 67

3.4.2 Sea surface temperature 70

3.4.3 Air temperature 73

3.4.4 Land surface temperature 75

3.4.5 Chlorophyll concentration 76

3.4.6 Upwelling index 81

3.4.7 Sea surface height 82

3.4.8 Seismographic materials 82

4 OCEANIC AND COASTAL EARTHQUAKES 91

4.1 Introduction 91

4.1.1 Tectonic and geological setting of study area 91

4.1.2 Analysis concept 95

4.2 Earthquake of Jun 15, 2005 96

4.3 Earthquake of Sep 28, 2004 106

4.4 Earthquake of Dec 22, 2003 110

4.5 Earthquakes of Feb 2008 114

4.6 Earthquake of Feb 27, 2010 123

4.7 Earthquake of Apr 04, 2010 130

4.8 Conclusion 134

5 INLAND EARTHQUAKES 137

5.1 Introduction 137

5.2 Geological setting and seismic history of the area 138

5.3 Earthquakes of Kerman 143

5.4 Earthquakes of Azerbaijan 156

5.5 Conclusion 169

6 SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE

RESEARCH 172

6.1 Summary 172

6.2 Conclusion 173

6.3 Research contribution 177

6.4 Suggestions for future research 178

6.4.1 General recommendations for remote sensing precursory study 178

6.4.2 Possible improvements for current approaches 178

REFERENCES 180

APPENDICES 192

BIODATA OF STUDENT 200

LIST OF PUBLICATIONS 201

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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE Page

3.1 Global mean ocean surface energy balance 68

4.1 Details of the earthquakes 94

5.1a List of studied earthquakes occurred in Kerman province, Iran 139

5.1b List of aftershocks occurred during the period of Dec 2010–Jan 2011 in Kerman

province, Iran 139

5.2 Details of the earthquakes occurred in Azerbaijan province, Iran 142

5.3 Station information which have been used in the study 161

5.4a SPYDER report on the earthquakes information 163

5.4b FARM report on the earthquakes information 163

5.4c Computed locations for main events using the three seismographs 164

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LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE Page

2.1 The vertical profiles of the depths of aftershocks occurred during the 2000

earthquake case studies by Stefansson (2011). 16

2.2 Release of strain energy in historical earthquakes from 1700 to 1999 in southwest

Iceland. 17

2.3 Aftershocks and surface ruptures on the Hestvatn fault. 22

2.4 Hypothetical cross-sections of Rn (a) and CO2 (b) concentrations cutting a fault

transversally. 24

2.5 Rate of air ionization in the first 10 km of the atmosphere under ‘‘fair weather”

conditions. 36

2.6 Anomalous cloud structures on July 30, 2007 according to the Terra and Aqua

spacecraft data. 40

3.1 Research outline 59

3.2 Research conceptual model 62

3.3 The flow of data analysis strategy 63

3.4 Data processing procedure in ArcGIS 66

3.5 Time correlation of evaporation from da Silva et al. (1994) and from the NCEP–

NCAR reanalysis for 1981–92 for (top) monthly means and (bottom) monthly

mean anomalies from the annual cycles. 69

3.6 Anomaly correlations of ensemble mean CFS forecasts as a function of lead and

target month for monthly mean 2-m temperature over land in the NH. 75

3.7 The normalized transmittance of MODIS bands and spectral distribution of

upwelling radiance above the surface of the ocean for Chl-a concentration. 78

3.8 Identifying P and S waves on 3-component seismograph. 88

3.9 Producing ground particle motion when P wave reached and station. 89

4.1a Right: the locations of oceanic and coastal earthquakes in central and northern

California. Left: the location map of the major events occurred in Mexico and

Chile. 94

4.1b Locations of epicenters of the two earthquakes occurred in Indonesia shown in a

bathymetry map of the world. 95

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4.2a Temporal distribution of Chl-a concentration retrieved from MODIS in the Pacific

Ocean. 97

4.2b 8-day composite Chlorophyll-a time series for Northern California earthquake

show growing trend from one month before the earthquake followed by a decrease

to 15 days after that. 100

4.2c Daily averaged upwelling index for Northern California earthquake showing

maximum rise several days prior to the main event. 100

4.2d Daily SST Time series for the Northern California earthquake of June 15, 2005;

shows steady increase during the preparation stage and sudden fall after the main

event. 101

4.2e Images of SST retrieved from AMSR-E in the Pacific Ocean during the Northern

California earthquake of June 15, 2005. 103

4.2f Temporal variation in SLHF of the Northern California earthquake showing

increase several days prior to the main event; dashed line is the 5-year average of

SLHF and red bar indicates the earthquake date. 105

4.2g Spatio-temporal variation in SLHF prior and after the main event of the Northern

California earthquake. 105

4.3a Temporal distribution of Chl-a concentration in the Pacific Ocean during the

Central California earthquake of September 28, 2004, the increasing trend to the

day of the event and general decrease in the area afterwards is obvious. 107

4.3b Daily averaged upwelling index for Central California earthquake of September

28, 2004 showing rises before the main event. 108

4.3c The anomalous SLHF values before and during the earthquake of September 28,

2004; Red bar indicates the day of the main event. 108

4.3d Time series of surface temperature for the Central California earthquake of

September 2004; shows several anomalies during the preparation stage and

sudden fall after the main event. 109

4.4a The SST time series of the epicentral oceanic water of the earthquake of

December 22, 2003 generally higher before the earthquake. The effect of

aftershocks during the second half of December is also shown. 111

4.4b The anomalous SLHF values before and during the main earthquake of December

2003 and aftershock period is observed. 111

4.4c 8-day composite Chlorophyll-a time series for Central California earthquake of

December 22, 2003 showing anomalies in some occasions from one month before

the main event followed by a sudden decrease immediately after that. 112

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4.4d Daily averaged upwelling index for Central California earthquake of December

22, 2003 showing maximum rise a month before the main event. 112

4.5a Images of SST retrieved from AMSR-E in the Indian Ocean during the Simeulue

and Kepulauan earthquakes of February, 2008 showing significant rises in some

occasions related to the main events and the aftershocks. 115

4.5b Daily averaged sea surface temperature of the pixel covering the epicenter of

Simeulue20 Feb 2008 earthquake showing an uprising trend before the

earthquake, during the preparation stage, and a sudden fall few days after the

main. 117

4.5c Daily averaged sea surface temperature of the epicenter of Kepulauan, 25 Feb

2008 earthquake, showing increases in some occasions before the main event. 117

4.5d Spatial distribution of SLHF anomaly in Indonesia before February 2008

earthquakes; Anomalies related to the seismic activity at the area of the epicenter

are observable in some occasions such 1-2 and 22-25 Feb SLHF maps. 118

4.5e Daily SLHF variations of the pixels covering the epicenter of earthquake of 20

Feb, 2008 are experiencing rises and falls in accordance to the occurrence of the

main earthquake event and aftershocks. 120

4.5f Sharp rises in SLHF values of the pixels covering the epicenter of 25th

Feb, 2008

earthquake is observable from the end of January to few days before the main

event. 120

4.5g Images of SSH retrieved from AMSR-E in the Indian Ocean during the Simeulue

and Kepulauan earthquakes of February, 2008 showing significant rises near

epicenters one week before and during the earthquake events. 121

4.5h Monthly sea surface height data in the Indian Ocean at the point of our earthquake

case studies’ epicenters showing considerable anomaly during February 2008

comparing with the 8-year-average values (2000-2007). 122

4.5i Daily sea surface height data in the Indian Ocean at the point of our earthquake

case studies’ epicenters showing significant increase from two weeks before the

main events comparing with the 8-year-average values (2000-2007). 123

4.6a Series of shocks occurred around the epicenter of the Chile earthquake with

magnitude larger than 4.5 between January 2010 and June 2010 (from USGS

website). 124

4.6b Chl-a concentration maps in the South Pacific Ocean over Bio-Bio Chile show

normal scenario throughout the month of the earthquake event (February 2010)

with a normal Chl-a belt along the coast except on Feb 13th

which a significant

increase covers a vast region around the epicenter. 126

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4.6c 8-day composite Chlorophyll-a time series for Chile earthquake of February 27,

2010 shows anomalies in some occasions from one month before the main event

followed by a significant and sharp increase after that which can be related to the

numerous aftershocks in March. 127

4.6d Daily N-E Ekman Transport for Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010

downloaded from http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu showing maximum rise about 50

days before the main event. 127

4.6e The Surface temperature of the epicenter of the earthquake of Feb 27, 2010 shows

a significant anomaly after the main event that can be effect of aftershocks. 128

4.6f SLHF anomaly maps of three months over Bio-Bio Chile show the rising trend on

February 6-9, 2010 which might be an outstanding demonstration of the fault

activity in the area. 129

4.7a Frequency of aftershocks (magnitude > 4.5) observed at the epicentral area of the

Baja earthquake until July 2010 (from USGS website). 131

4.7b The anomalous SLHF values before and during the earthquake of April 4, 2010;

shows a remarkable anomaly about a month before the main event. 132

4.7c SLHF anomaly maps during March 16-19, 2010 around the epicenter of Baja

earthquake showing increase originated from the active faults zone in the area.133

4.7d Time series of surface temperature for the Baja earthquake of April 2010; shows

higher values on some occasions comparing to ten-year averaged values (2000-

2009) during the preparation stage. 134

5.1a Epicenters of the studied earthquakes (details of earthquakes are in Table 1)

adopted from MODIS 500 meters images. 140

5.1b The locations and extents of the Iran major active fault from National Geo-science

Database of Iran (left) and the shake map of 20 Dec earthquake from USGS

(right). 140

5.2 Locations of the epicenters of the two earthquakes occurred in Ahar and other

small shakes on the day of main events. 142

5.3 (a) shows shakes of the earthquakes occurred on 20 Dec, 2010 and 27 Jan, 2011

and (b) is an example of non-related SLHF anomaly in the study area. 144

5.4a Spatial distribution of SLHF anomaly in Kerman province (Iran) before 20 Dec

2010 earthquake before the earthquakes and cannot be considered as an

anomalous pattern. 146

5.4b SLHF maps of the Kerman province (Iran) before 27 Jan 2011 earthquake. Red dot

is the epicenter. Anomalies related to the seismic activity at the southern area of

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the epicenter are observable during 13-26 January. The images of some days

before the earthquake are affected by the general seasonal increase in SLHF

masking the possible earthquake related anomalous patterns. 148

5.4c Sharp rises in SLHF values of the pixels covering both the epicenters are seen two

weeks before our case study earthquakes. 149

5.4d Mean daily air temperature at 2 meters above the earth’s surface generated from

NCEP data during December 2010; Interruptions in east-west air temperature

regime are observable during 18-20 December. 151

5.4e Maximum air temperature at 2 meters above the earth’s surface generated from

NCEP data during January 2011. 152

5.4f Daily maximum air temperature variations are experiencing rises and falls in

accordance to the occurrences of the main earthquake events and aftershocks. 154

5.4g Mean air temperature at the epicenters for the November 2010-February 2011;

sudden rises are observable about two weeks before the main events. 154

5.4h Relative humidity anomaly values computed on 2004-2009 averages; the red bars

show the day of the main earthquake and green ones show the days of foreshock

and aftershock. 155

5.4i Daily averaged surface temperature of the pixels covering the epicentral areas of

both Kerman 20 December 2010 and 27 January 2011 earthquakes showing

significant rises from 5 days prior to the first shake, during the seismically active

period (20 Dec-27 Jan) and few days after the second quake. 155

5.5a Anomaly map in terms of the past 5-year averages; Distinctive patterns of 19-21

July are apparently concentrated on Ahar fault. 158

5.5b Relative Humidity over the epicentral region. The most considerable changing

pattern is observable on August 2, although it is masked by the next day’s higher

values from Caspian Sea. 159

5.5c Locations of Seismograph stations used in this study (black dots) and the

epicenters (green dots). 160

5.5d Seismogram records of the Ahar’s 11 August 2012 earthquakes on vertical

components of three local stations. 162

5.5e Seisan computations of the main events. This is generated for evaluating the

accuracy of computations using the three stations: GNI, KARS, and SIRT. 163

5.5f Seismogram, phases and location map for thr foreshock recorded on July 21 (the

day of SLHF variations). 166

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5.5g The other foreshock detected on the SLHF anomaly period (19-22 July). 167

5.5h The second day of August was a day of RH variations and seismic activity in the

Tabriz north fault, recorded one week before the main events. 168

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LIST OF APPENDICES

APPENDIX Page

A Sample of ascii data downloaded from NCEP: Anomaly SLHF data of 1st August

2012 for Ahar earthquake. 192

B Dataset description: The used products are level-3 gridded otherwise explicitly

mentioned. 193

C Chlorophyll-a concentration maps of June, 2006 in California Beach. 194

D Chlorophyll-a concentration maps of Feb, 2010 over Bio-Bio Chile. 196

E SLHF anomaly maps during 13th

March and 11th

April 2010 around the epicenter of

Baja earthquake. 198

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Scientific background

Sudden movements of the earth’s crust are the ultimate production of gradual tectonic

deformations on regional or continental scales. During the quiet period that the

mechanical forces are built up in the crust, underground materials reshape, break, and

move to allow higher capacity of the elastic crust to absorb the pressures. When the

accumulated energy exceeds the ground’s resistance, the surface ruptures, or moves in

the place of existing faults, allowing the energy released in the forms of seismic waves

and other forms of energy like heat during foreshocks, main shake, and aftershocks. A

chain of underground events which are triggered by these waves and heat before and

during this stage may produce physical/chemical interactions prior to the main shake.

During the past decades there have been several researches about the appearance of the

atmospheric, oceanic and surface changes during this preparation stage prior to strong

and moderate earthquakes. Recent advances in remote sensing sensors and techniques

have allowed more accurate monitoring of the earth’s surface and producing more

comprehensive reports in terms of coverage, variety, and time.

Currently, there are several theories about the types and the sequence of events during

the geological stages of earthquakes. Most explanations stress on raises in heat and the

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generation of seismic waves as the main signs of an impending earthquake. Their

differences only lie in the secondary phenomena which are triggered by these events.

Anomalies in surface (sea, land, and air) temperature, heat flux, upwelling index,

chlorophyll-a concentration, radon (or other underground) gas releases, and ground

deformations are considered as the precursors of earthquakes. Among all these

theoretical factors which may or may not happen during an earthquake, possible

variations in the amount of surface latent heat flux (SLHF), sea & land surface

temperature (SST & LST), and surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) are easier to record from

the earth observing satellites. SLHF is the amount of energy exchange in the form of

water vapor between the earth’s surface and atmosphere. Abnormal variations in this

factor have been repeatedly reported as an earthquake precursor. The accumulated stress

in the earth’s crust during the preparation phase of earthquakes is said to be the main

cause of temperature anomalies weeks to days before a main event and subsequent

shakes. Chemical and physical interactions in the presence of underground water lead to

higher water evaporation prior to inland earthquakes. In case of the oceanic earthquakes,

higher temperature at the ocean beds may lead to higher amount of Chl-a on the sea

surface. On the other hand, it has been also said that the leak of Radon gas which occurs

as rocks break during earthquake preparation causes the formation of airborne ions and

higher air temperature (AT).

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1.2 Problem statement

Occurring with no early warning, sudden slip on a fault causes destruction and large

scale loss of lives. Much of the devastation results from falling structures. However, the

secondary deadly events like fires, gas leak, accidents, etc. may also take place during a

moderate or strong earthquake. Earthquakes are expected to occur in parts of the world

with previous records of shakes. A possible short-term earthquake prediction system

implemented in an earthquake-prone region allows performing in-time actions prior to

an impending earthquake.

Such a warning system can be based on the detection of several abnormalities produced

during the preparation stage of earthquakes. Like any other system, first, the basic

requirements, opportunities, and deficiencies should be assessed. There is a need for

theories and theoretical explanations and analyses for judging the relevancy of the

proposed assumptions to different cases. Accuracy assessment and uncertainty

calculation are the next phases of any possible forewarning method. Apparently, for a

better understanding of the operation mechanism of this geo-related hazard, it should be

characterized in terms of earthquake faults involved in past events, geological setting

(like identifying unconsolidated sediment and unstable land), and tectonic movements.

Unfortunately, there is a general lack of geo-related information in most parts of the

world. The hidden and surface faults are not accurately mapped and amplifying or

transferring attributes of different regions of the crust have not been determined for

many earthquake-prone areas. Nevertheless, the emergence of remotely recorded data

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and processing techniques allowed different national and international information

providers and data vendors to produce various levels of image, map, and statistical data.

However, on the other hand, in-situ measurements which are necessary for recording

some underground or surface events are very hard, costly, and time consuming.

As a part of the initial efforts for using remote-sensing-based information for earthquake

prediction, this thesis is about detecting remotely sensible variations which are possibly

related to past earthquakes and might had been used for predicting the event. Inland,

coastal and oceanic earthquake instances from different parts of the world are studied

and relevant data processing techniques are applied for separating possible seismo-

related abnormalities from seasonal and non-related ones. Previous efforts were often

limited to one or two factors and concentrated on the small areas around earthquake

epicenters lacking the role of impacting geological structures (fault zones) and recorded

ground movements which would be expected to occur before main quakes. By taking

into consideration the natural trend of surface and near surface factors, geological

structures, and available geo-scientific theories, the relevancy of the studied factors of

monitoring pre-earthquake signs are evaluated.

This sort of research helps identifying those datasets (remote sensing, seismography,

maps, and historical records), processing techniques, and analyses which can be used in

determining the directions of possible future prediction systems. Earthquake types,

depths, origins, and epicentral areas are different in various parts of the world. So,

although there might be a chance for identifying some general precursory events which

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are globally common, a prediction system would be local and very specific to a number

of factors that appear and sensible in a particular earthquake-prone region. In order to

overcome the general lack of geo-related knowledge which is hard and expensive to

acquire, the latest, advanced remote sensing should be used. However, sometimes,

atmospheric effects, geological characteristics, and earthquake attributes make it too

hard to detect a possible precursor prior to an earthquake. Before going into the

determination of the necessities of a local prediction system in micro scale, the factors,

techniques, and data appropriate for macro study of the area should be identified. This

large-scale examination of the situation in case of a past major shake allows the

recognition of important geological structures like active faults, seismic and aseismic

plates, and geo-mechanical regime of the case study area which determines the

transferring characteristics of seismic waves from an origin (which might be a fault

zone, etc.) to an epicenter.

1.3 Research objectives

The general objective of this thesis is to identify the remotely-sensible events which

may be related to the seismic activities resulted in past earthquakes. The usefulness of

previously suggested precursors, appropriateness of available theories on the physical

and chemical events during the seismic activities, and applicability of analysis and

visualization types for different inland, coastal, and oceanic earthquakes are inspected.

The specific objectives of this study include:

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To identify meaningful, remotely sensible variations in land, sea and air

temperature (LST, SST, AT), surface latent heat flux (SLHF), and chlorophyll-a

(Chl-a) anomalies on earth’s surface prior to past earthquakes.

To discover the variations of the above-mentioned factors which are in relation

with seismic activity in epicentral regions and local fault systems prior to past

earthquake events.

To characterize the co-occurrence and sequence of the possible precursory events

specific to each case study earthquake.

1.4 Research questions

To fulfill the research objectives, several research questions were postulated:

Which on and above surface phenomena have already been recognized as

earthquake precursors, and which data is needed to assess them?

What are the best datasets to map the earth’s surface during earthquakes? How

are they qualified and verified?

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What is the fitness for use of this data? How can this fitness for use be measured,

in order to assess the overall uncertainty of earthquake forecasts?

Is it possible to identify the source and propagation patterns of seismic waves

triggering an earthquake? And basically is it needed to gain complete knowledge

about the local fault regime and tectonic settings?

Is it possible to develop regional prediction models based on the past

earthquakes experienced in the area? What seasons are ideal for earthquake

prediction and how strong an earthquake should be to be remotely sensible?

1.5 Structure of thesis

This thesis consists of a descriptive research about the variations of the above-

mentioned remotely sensible factors recorded during past seismic activities in different

parts of the world. Statistical data on the reoccurrence intervals of previous shakes are

used together with the map locations of the area’s faults to determine the coarse

geographical extents and time periods of monitoring operations. Seismographic data are

also used for mapping weak signs of foreshocks and aftershocks which often are not

reported by international earthquake bodies. Analyses on the concurrences of several

precursory events are also done. In order to minimize the non-related events, the case

study earthquakes are chosen from different parts of the world with different seasonal,

altitude, and latitude conditions. Basically this sort of research could be the cornerstones

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of a possible future short-term earthquake prediction system. The thesis is made up of

seven chapters, each corresponding to the objectives and contributing towards an

advance understanding of the remotely sensed earthquake precursors. This first chapter

introduces the thematic context of the study, the main research problem, the motivation

to pursue the research, and the research objectives, questions and goals.

The second chapter reviews literature related to the proposed topic. Previous efforts on

approaches and techniques about changes on remotely sensible factors and seismograph

reports prior, during and after earthquakes are reviewed which reveals needs for further

development in known or unknown earthquake precursors.

The third chapter explains an improved framework for earthquake precursory factors

detection. Description of remote sensing and seismological data of most used and freely

available resolutions to public acquired from different sources are presented. As well as

the concept of remote sensing techniques and seismography in earthquake precursors

monitoring, the details and criteria of analyses and interpretations, and the cons & pros

of each procedure are discussed.

Chapter four is a collection of descriptive analyses done on the remotely sensed

variations for past coastal and oceanic earthquakes all over the world. Critical analyses

were done in terms of the epicenter locations and fault locations for discovering seismic

activity and evaluating the earthquake mechanisms declared by research and monitoring

institutes.

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In the fifth chapter of this thesis, the past inland earthquakes are studied for the

concurrency of remotely sensed factors while one of the main concerns is to assess the

capability of remote sensing methods in specifying the location and extents of the active

faults involved in the preparation activity. Analytic description of distribution of small

foreshocks through the processing of continuous seismograms from nearby stations was

also used to evaluate the detected changes and movements of the ground.

Finally, chapter six focuses on the summary, conclusions, contribution, and

recommendations for future research, bringing the book to a close.

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