university extension/department of economics the role of energy in the history of iowa agriculture...

University Extension/Department of Economics

The Role of Energy in the History of Iowa Agriculture

Ag. Based Renewable Energy Professional Development WorkshopAmes, Iowa

June 20, 2011

Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

[email protected]

University Extension/Department of EconomicsSource: USDA-NASS

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1,0

00

acr

es

Corn Soybeans Hay OatsWheat Barley Potatoes RyeFlaxseed Sorghum Sugarbeets Sweet Potatoes

Crop Shifts


Iowa’s Agricultural Rankings

Source: USDA-NASS

1st: Corn ProductionSoybean ProductionField Crop ValueEgg ProductionHog InventoryHog Value on FarmCommercial Hog SlaughterCrop Harvested Area

2nd: Red Meat ProductionTotal Crop ValueNet Farm Income

3rd: Number of FarmsMilk Goat Inventory

4th: Cattle on FeedSteers – 500 Lbs. & Over

5th: Heifers – 500 Lbs. & OverMarket Sheep & Lambs

6th: Oat Production

7th: All Cattle & Calves

9th: Alfalfa Hay ProductionNumber of Organic Farms

10th: Land in FarmsCalf CropWool Production


Iowa Farms and Farmland

Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

50

80

110

140

170

200

230# o

f F

arm

s (1

,000s)

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

Acr

es

(mill

ion)

Farms Land in Farms


Iowa Cattle Operations


20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

1,0

00 f

arm

s

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mil

lio

n h

ead

Farms w/ Cattle Number of Cattle


Iowa Hog Operations


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

1,0

00

farm

s

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

Mil

lio

n h

ea

d

Farms w/ Hogs Number of Hogs


Corn Energy-related Production Costs

Source: USDA-ERS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

$ p

er

acr

e

Fertilizer, lime and gypsum Chemicals Fuel, lube, and electricity


Fertilizer Use

Source: USDA-ERS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mill

ion t

ons

Nitrogen (N) Phosphate (P2O5) Potash (K2O)


Productivity

Source: USDA-ERS

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Ind

ex

(19

48

= 1

)

Output Inputs Productivity


Change in Input Structure

Source: USDA-ERS

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Ind

ex

(19

48

= 1

)

Capital Labor Energy


Crude Oil Prices

Sources: EIA, NYMEX

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-8

6

Jan-8

8

Jan-9

0

Jan-9

2

Jan-9

4

Jan-9

6

Jan-9

8

Jan-0

0

Jan-0

2

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

8

Jan-1

0

Jan-1

2

Jan-1

4

Jan-1

6

Jan-1

8

$ p

er

barr

el


Ethanol Production

0

3

6

9

12

15

Bill

ion g

allo

ns

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Bill

ion b

ush

els

Ethanol Corn


Corn Grind for Ethanol

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

Sep-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Mill

ion

bu

shels

University Extension/Department of EconomicsSource: ISU Extension

Drying of DDG can be 30% of the energy costs of ethanol production

Fertilizer is ½ of the energy used in corn production.


U.S. Corn Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011

Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 90.7

Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 158.7

Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 13,200

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 730

Imports (mil. bu.) 14 8 25 20

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,729 14,774 14,180 13,950

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,182 5,140 5,150 5,000

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,709 4,568 5,000 5,050

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,316 1,371 1,400 1,405

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,849 1,987 1,900 1,800

Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,056 13,066 13,450 13,255

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 730 695

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.35 6.50


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

Bill

ion G

allo

ns

Conventional Biofuels Cellulosic Biofuels

Biodiesel Additional Advanced Biofuels

Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

University Extension/Department of EconomicsSource: EIA

Energy Flow (Quadrillion BTUs)


BiomassWind

Solar

Alternative Sources

University Extension/Department of EconomicsSource: USDA

On-Farm Wind Power

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2004 2009

Ind

ex

(2000 =

1)

US IA

In 2000, US farms had roughly 360 wind turbines and IA farms had 17.

In 2009, US farms had roughly 1,845 wind turbines and IA farms had 57.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2004 2009

Ind

ex

(20

00

= 1

)

US IA

Source: USDA

On-Farm Solar Power

In 2000, US farms had 18,881 solar panels and IA farms had 42.

In 2009, US farms had 172,441 solar panels and IA farms had 564.


Liquid Fuel Usage2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per

Day) (Percent of 2006 Value)

United States 20.7 95% 98% 98% 100% 105%

Canada 2.3 100% 100% 100% 104% 109%

Mexico 2.1 71% 81% 90% 95% 100%

Europe 15.7 92% 92% 95% 96% 96%

Japan 5.2 88% 92% 96% 92% 90%

China 7.2 118% 139% 168% 192% 213%

India 2.7 89% 115% 144% 159% 174%

Africa 3.0 117% 120% 123% 127% 130%

Central and South America 5.7 116% 116% 119% 125% 133%

World 85.0 102% 107% 113% 119% 125%

Source: Energy Information Administration


Population2010 2030 2050

(billion) (billion) (billion)World 6.852 World 8.249 World 9.256

China 1.330

India 1.461

India 1.657

India 1.173

China 1.391

China 1.304

U.S. 0.310 U.S. 0.374 U.S. 0.439Indonesia 0.243

Indonesia 0.289 Indonesia 0.313

Brazil 0.201

Pakistan 0.243

Pakistan 0.291

Pakistan 0.184

Brazil 0.240

Ethiopia 0.278

Bangladesh 0.156

Nigeria 0.212

Nigeria 0.264

Nigeria 0.152

Bangladesh 0.211

Brazil 0.261

Russia 0.139

Ethiopia 0.162 Bangladesh 0.250

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

University Extension/Department of EconomicsSource: USDA-NASS

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1,0

00

acr

es

Corn Soybeans Hay OatsWheat Barley Potatoes RyeFlaxseed Sorghum Sugarbeets Sweet Potatoes

Crop Shifts


Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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