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University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
WRAP Regional Haze CMAQ 1996 Model Performance and for Section 309
March 27, 2003, Denver, CO
Gail TonnesenUniversity of California Riverside
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
CMAQ DomainCMAQ Domain
Clean boundary conditions and initial conditions using EPA defaults with some updates to BC based on clean IMPROVE sites PM data.
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
CMAQ Description: April 2001 releaseCMAQ Description: April 2001 release• Domain:
– 85 columns, 95 rows, 18 layers, 36km grid cells horizontally– Lambert-Conformal Projection
• Emissions: based on NEI with many updates:– MOBILE6, EMFAC, Biogenics: BEIS2, Point, Road Dust, Wild Fire
(no Ag or Rx), Point for Mexico, no fugitive dust
• Meteorology:– From EPA MM5 1996 simulation, processed with MCIP v.1– 23 layer MM5 averaged to 18 layers.
• Chemistry: CB-IV with extensions– SO2 oxidation into sulfate aerosol– VOC oxidation into secondary organic aerosol– Coupled with RADM aqueous chemistry
• Advection scheme is PPM
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Emissions ProcessingEmissions Processing
• SMOKE is used for emissions processing.
• Ported SMOKE to Linux
• Quality Assurance:
– SMOKE QA reports
– Post processing to total emissions subcategories for all layers and all hours.
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Evaluation OverviewEvaluation Overview
• IMPROVE database:– Raw Dataset
• Analysis period:– Year 1996– total of 104 days available ambient data– Raw: ~53 stations
• Evaluation species– SO4, NO3, Bext, PM2.5, PM10, OC, EC
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
IMPROVE & Protocol Sites for EvaluationIMPROVE & Protocol Sites for Evaluation
No 1996 IMPROVE Data with 1996 IMPROVE Data
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
CASTNET Sites for EvaluationCASTNET Sites for Evaluation
No 1996 CASTNET Data with 1996 CASTNET Data
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
CMAQ to IMPROVE Species MappingCMAQ to IMPROVE Species MappingCompound IMPROVE Species CMAQ Mapping
SO4 SO4 ASO4J + ASO4I
NO3 NO3 ANO3J + ANO3I
OC 1.4*(OC1+OC2+OC3+OC4+OP) AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI
EC (LAC) EC1+EC2+EC3-OP AECJ + AECI
SOIL 2.2*Al + 2.49*Si + 1.63*Ca + 2.42*Fe + 1.94*Ti
A25I +A25J
PM2.5_Measured
(PM25)
MF 1.375*(ASO4J + ASO4I) + 1.29*(ANO3J + ANO3I) + (AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI) + (AECJ + AECI) + (A25J + A25I)
PM2.5_Recon (RCFM)
1.375*SO4 +1.29*NO3 + EC + OC + SOIL
Same as PM2.5_Measured
CM MT-MF ACORS + ASEAS + ASOIL
PM10 MT 1.375*(ASO4J + ASO4I) + 1.29*(ANO3J + ANO3I) + (AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI) + (AECJ + AECI) + (A25J + A25I) + (ACORS + ASEAS + ASOIL)
Bext_Reconstructed
(1/Mm)
10 + 4.125*f(RH)b*SO4 + 3.87*f(RH)*NO3 + 4*OC + 10*EC + SOIL + 0.6*CM
10 + 4.125*fRH*(ASO4J + ASO4I) + 3.87*fRH*(ANO3J + ANO3I) + 4*(AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI) + 10*(AECJ + AECI) + (A25J + A25I) + 0.6*(ACORS + ASEAS + ASOIL)
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Modeling Evaluation ProcedureModeling Evaluation Procedure
• Analysis procedures:– Compute daily averaged model level-one
concentration.
– Extract species information & concentration from IMPROVE datasets
– Identify monitoring sites within model domains (convert lat/lon into grid cell)
– Match model predictions with IMPROVE datasets
– Generate scatter plots and time-series plots of model results vs. IMPROVE datasets.
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Results from Analysis ProgramResults from Analysis Program((complete results at: www.cert.ucr.edu/rmc)complete results at: www.cert.ucr.edu/rmc)
• Time series data• Scatter plots
– All Site and All Days– All Site for One Day– All Days for One Site– All Days for Defined Sub-regions
• Statistical analysis– Regression (r-squared)– Mean normalized bias (MNB) and error (MNE)
o
op
C
CC
NMNB
1100(%)
o
op
C
CC
NMNE
1100(%)
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Annual Time-Series Plots – SOAnnual Time-Series Plots – SO44
Bryce Canyon, UT Grand Canyon, AZ
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Annual Time-Series Plots – NOAnnual Time-Series Plots – NO33
Bryce Canyon, UT Grand Canyon, AZ
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Annual Time-Series Plots – OCAnnual Time-Series Plots – OC
Bryce Canyon, UT Grand Canyon, AZ
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Annual Time-Series Plots – EC Annual Time-Series Plots – EC
Bryce Canyon, UT Grand Canyon, AZ
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Annual Time-Series Plots – SOIL Annual Time-Series Plots – SOIL
Bryce Canyon, UT Grand Canyon, AZ
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l Park, PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l Park, AZ - SummerAZ - Summer
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l Park, AZ - WinterPark, AZ - Winter
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
NO
3S
OIL
RC
FM
SO
4P
M2
5E
C
OC
PM
10
CM
-100
400
900
1400
1900
(%)
Month
CMAQ_Mean Normalized Bias
NO3
SOIL
RCFM
SO4
PM25
EC
OC
PM10
CM
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Grand Canyon NP
0
10
20
30
40
50
OBS Best CMAQ Best OBS All CMAQ All OBS Worst CMAQ Worst
Ext
inct
ion
(Mm
^-1)
Average of bCM
Average of bSOIL
Average of bEC
Average of bOC
Average of bNO3
Average of bSO4
bRAY
Best 20% All days Worst 20%
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Petrified Forest NP
0
10
20
30
40
50
OBS Best CMAQ Best OBS All CMAQ All OBS Worst CMAQ Worst
Ext
inct
ion
(Mm
^-1)
Average of bCM
Average of bSOIL
Average of bEC
Average of bOC
Average of bNO3
Average of bSO4
bRAY
Best 20% All days Worst 20%
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Conclusions for 1996 Model Conclusions for 1996 Model Performance EvaluationPerformance Evaluation
• Model over predicts most species in the winter.• Model performance is best in summer.• Model does not get the peaks on the correct day:
– Precedent from SAMI longterm regional O3 model
– Should consider “unpaired in time & space” evaluation.
• Coarse mass is under predicted– Missing windblown dust emissions inventory.
• Many upgrades planned for Section 308 modeling.
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Sensitivity RunsSensitivity Runs
• EPA modeling showed strong seasonality in NH3 emissions:– We reduced winter NH3 emissions by 50%
– This reduced the NO3 over prediction to be consistent with other species.
– Still need to explore winter vertical mixing.
• Western BC were too high– Reduced western BC based on IMPROVE data at clean
western sites.
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
Sensitivity to 50% NH3 change
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC
WRAP Regional Modeling Center