university of natural resources and life sciences, vienna department of economics and social...
TRANSCRIPT
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 1
Optimal Supply Chain Design of Green Biorefineries in Austria - Assessment of Current and Potential Policy Support Schemes
Stefan Hoeltinger, Johannes Schmidt, Martin Schoenhart & Erwin Schmid
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 2
Introduction – Biorefineries and the bioeconomy
Biorefinery concept is the key to meet major objectives of a Knowledge-Based Bio-Economy (KBBE) Substitution of fossil fuels Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Efficient use of biomass resources (for material and energy production) Establish competitive bio-based industries Increase regional value added
„Biorefining is the sustainable processing of biomassinto a spectrum of marketable bio-based products and bioenergy” IEA - Task 42 Biorefineries
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 3
Introduction – The Green Biorefinery Concept
Feedstocks green biomass (fresh grass, grass silage, sugar beet leaves, …)
Products organic acids, feed proteins, fibre products,
electricity and heat
Drivers for the green biorefinery concept in Austria Expected oversupply of grassland areas due to changes
in agricultural policies and structures Alternative utilization for grassland biomass to preserve cultural landscape Employment opportunities for rural areas
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 4
Green biorefinery system Reference system - biogas
Introduction – The Green Biorefinery Concept
Simplified process overview of the green biorefinery demonstration plant in Utzenaich, Austria and biogas as reference technology
Grass silage
Press juice Press cakeMechanical separation
Biogas + ChpMembrane separation
Ion exchange chromatography
Electrodialysis
Amino acids Lactic Acid Heat Electricity
Biogas + Chp
Heat Electricity
Grass silage
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 5
Methods and Data
Spatially explicit mixed integer programming model that maximizes profits of the whole supply chain by selecting optimal plant type, location and capacity
The model considers feedstock-, transportation-, operation-
and capital costs revenues from product sales
Regional disparities in biomass supply and heat demand determine profitability and sustainability of biomass supply chains
Spatially explicit data for Regional biomass supply (aggregated to 250 supply regions) heat demand (MWh) pro km² (Schmidt et al., 2010)
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 6
Methods and Data
Sensitivity analysis - Monte-Carlo simulation to deal with uncertainties of input parameters varying market conditions upscaling costs efficiency of conversion technologies
5 Policy Scenarios No policy support schemes Feed-in tariff 150 € per MWhelectricity
Feed-in tariff 100 € per MWhelectricity
Investment subsidy 20 % of total investment costs Processing-aid for cascade utilization of grass silage in a green biorefinery
10 € per t dry matter (dm) grass silage
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 7
Results – feedstock assessment
Positive Agricultural Sector Model Austria (PASMA) Supply curve for energetic and material utilization
of grass silage
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Grass silage supply (Million t dm)
Pric
e (€
/ t
dm
)
No effect on livestock numbers
Additional supplies through Intensification measures
(Nitrogen fertilizer inputs) Crop rotation changes on
arable land Increased feed imports
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 8
Results – feedstock assessment Feedstock prices paid by biogas plants and green
biorefineries for all 500 simulation runs
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 9
Results - capacities Mean capacities and transportation distances for the realized
green biorefineries and biogas plants for all 500 Monte Carlo simulation runs
Biorefineries are more capital intensive than biogas plants ->
larger capacities to benefit from economies of scale for capital costs
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 10
SubsidiesAmino acidsLactic acidElectricity Heat
Results – profitability
Relative revenues for different policy scenarios
Guaranteed feed-in tariffs contribute to up to 55 % of biogas revenues Revenues of green biorefineries largely dependent on market prices for organic acids
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 11
Results – profitability
Feedstock costsTransportation costsVariable operation costsCapital costs
Relative costs for different policy scenarios
Feedstock costs contribute about 50 % of biogas costs Energy intensive downstream and separation technologies are the main drivers for the
costs green biorefineries
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 12
Results – profitability
Boxplots for the profitability of green biorefineries (GBR) and biogas plants
Higher profits for green biorefineries, but also higher uncertainty
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 13
Conclusions and outlook
Green biorefineries can offer a profitable utilization pathway for grass silage in Austria under favourable market conditions
Profitability of green biorefineries is very sensitive to market prices of organic acids the development of separation and downstream costs upscaling costs from pilot- to industrial scale
Profitability of biogas plants is largely dependent on the current policy support schemes (feed-in tariffs)
Sustainability assessment along the whole supply chain to prove ecological sustainability of green biorefinery concept More intensive cultivation methods and longer transportation distances
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 1426.06.2012 14
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social SciencesInstitute for Sustainable Economic Development
Stefan Hoeltinger, Johannes Schmidt, Martin Schoenhart & Erwin Schmid
Feistmantelstraße 4, A-1180 ViennaTel.: +43 1 [email protected] , www.boku.ac.at/454.html
Thank you for your attention