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University of Natural Resource and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 1 Optimal Supply Chain Design of Green Biorefineries in Austria - Assessment of Current and Potential Policy Support Schemes

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Page 1: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 1

Optimal Supply Chain Design of Green Biorefineries in Austria - Assessment of Current and Potential Policy Support Schemes

Stefan Hoeltinger, Johannes Schmidt, Martin Schoenhart & Erwin Schmid

Page 2: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 2

Introduction – Biorefineries and the bioeconomy

Biorefinery concept is the key to meet major objectives of a Knowledge-Based Bio-Economy (KBBE) Substitution of fossil fuels Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Efficient use of biomass resources (for material and energy production) Establish competitive bio-based industries Increase regional value added

„Biorefining is the sustainable processing of biomassinto a spectrum of marketable bio-based products and bioenergy” IEA - Task 42 Biorefineries

Page 3: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 3

Introduction – The Green Biorefinery Concept

Feedstocks green biomass (fresh grass, grass silage, sugar beet leaves, …)

Products organic acids, feed proteins, fibre products,

electricity and heat

Drivers for the green biorefinery concept in Austria Expected oversupply of grassland areas due to changes

in agricultural policies and structures Alternative utilization for grassland biomass to preserve cultural landscape Employment opportunities for rural areas

Page 4: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 4

Green biorefinery system Reference system - biogas

Introduction – The Green Biorefinery Concept

Simplified process overview of the green biorefinery demonstration plant in Utzenaich, Austria and biogas as reference technology

Grass silage

Press juice Press cakeMechanical separation

Biogas + ChpMembrane separation

Ion exchange chromatography

Electrodialysis

Amino acids Lactic Acid Heat Electricity

Biogas + Chp

Heat Electricity

Grass silage

Page 5: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 5

Methods and Data

Spatially explicit mixed integer programming model that maximizes profits of the whole supply chain by selecting optimal plant type, location and capacity

The model considers feedstock-, transportation-, operation-

and capital costs revenues from product sales

Regional disparities in biomass supply and heat demand determine profitability and sustainability of biomass supply chains

Spatially explicit data for Regional biomass supply (aggregated to 250 supply regions) heat demand (MWh) pro km² (Schmidt et al., 2010)

Page 6: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 6

Methods and Data

Sensitivity analysis - Monte-Carlo simulation to deal with uncertainties of input parameters varying market conditions upscaling costs efficiency of conversion technologies

5 Policy Scenarios No policy support schemes Feed-in tariff 150 € per MWhelectricity

Feed-in tariff 100 € per MWhelectricity

Investment subsidy 20 % of total investment costs Processing-aid for cascade utilization of grass silage in a green biorefinery

10 € per t dry matter (dm) grass silage

Page 7: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 7

Results – feedstock assessment

Positive Agricultural Sector Model Austria (PASMA) Supply curve for energetic and material utilization

of grass silage

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Grass silage supply (Million t dm)

Pric

e (€

/ t

dm

)

No effect on livestock numbers

Additional supplies through Intensification measures

(Nitrogen fertilizer inputs) Crop rotation changes on

arable land Increased feed imports

Page 8: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 8

Results – feedstock assessment Feedstock prices paid by biogas plants and green

biorefineries for all 500 simulation runs

Page 9: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 9

Results - capacities Mean capacities and transportation distances for the realized

green biorefineries and biogas plants for all 500 Monte Carlo simulation runs

Biorefineries are more capital intensive than biogas plants ->

larger capacities to benefit from economies of scale for capital costs

Page 10: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 10

SubsidiesAmino acidsLactic acidElectricity Heat

Results – profitability

Relative revenues for different policy scenarios

Guaranteed feed-in tariffs contribute to up to 55 % of biogas revenues Revenues of green biorefineries largely dependent on market prices for organic acids

Page 11: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 11

Results – profitability

Feedstock costsTransportation costsVariable operation costsCapital costs

Relative costs for different policy scenarios

Feedstock costs contribute about 50 % of biogas costs Energy intensive downstream and separation technologies are the main drivers for the

costs green biorefineries

Page 12: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 12

Results – profitability

Boxplots for the profitability of green biorefineries (GBR) and biogas plants

Higher profits for green biorefineries, but also higher uncertainty

Page 13: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 13

Conclusions and outlook

Green biorefineries can offer a profitable utilization pathway for grass silage in Austria under favourable market conditions

Profitability of green biorefineries is very sensitive to market prices of organic acids the development of separation and downstream costs upscaling costs from pilot- to industrial scale

Profitability of biogas plants is largely dependent on the current policy support schemes (feed-in tariffs)

Sustainability assessment along the whole supply chain to prove ecological sustainability of green biorefinery concept More intensive cultivation methods and longer transportation distances

Page 14: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid Optimal Supply

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, ViennaDepartment of Economics and Social Sciences

Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid 1426.06.2012 14

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna

Department of Economics and Social SciencesInstitute for Sustainable Economic Development

Stefan Hoeltinger, Johannes Schmidt, Martin Schoenhart & Erwin Schmid

Feistmantelstraße 4, A-1180 ViennaTel.: +43 1 [email protected] , www.boku.ac.at/454.html

Thank you for your attention