university of north carolina - greensboro 1 from global warming to sustainable transport 1989 –...

University of North Carolina - GreUniversity of North Carolina - Greensboroensboro

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From Global Warming to From Global Warming to Sustainable Transport Sustainable Transport

1989 – 20061989 – 2006

William R. BlackWilliam R. Black

Indiana UniversityIndiana University


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OverviewOverview

Review of the 1990 paper “Global Review of the 1990 paper “Global Warming: Impacts on the Warming: Impacts on the Transportation Infrastructure”Transportation Infrastructure”

Examine what has changed since thenExamine what has changed since then Explain how sustainable transport Explain how sustainable transport

emerged from this originemerged from this origin Talk about the intrinsic geographical Talk about the intrinsic geographical

nature of these problems nature of these problems Solutions – long term and near termSolutions – long term and near term


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BackgroundBackground

Roger Barry presentation on global Roger Barry presentation on global warming at Indiana Universitywarming at Indiana University

Began just thinking about the potential Began just thinking about the potential problems for transportproblems for transport

Wrote paper identifying these impactsWrote paper identifying these impacts US DOT and TRB were uncertain they US DOT and TRB were uncertain they

wanted to hear about thiswanted to hear about this TR NEWSTR NEWS published the paper published the paper


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DisclaimerDisclaimer

““Readers are invited to submit their Readers are invited to submit their comments on this article or on other comments on this article or on other aspects of global warming as they relate aspects of global warming as they relate to transportation. It should be noted that to transportation. It should be noted that the opinions expressed in articles the opinions expressed in articles published in published in TR NewsTR News are those of the are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Transportation Research views of the Transportation Research Board.”Board.”


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Note:Note:

Later contacted by researchers working Later contacted by researchers working on IPCC regarding other work on IPCC regarding other work

Cited in IPCC, Cited in IPCC, Climate Change 1995 Climate Change 1995 Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses (Contributions of Working Analyses (Contributions of Working Group II)Group II)


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The PaperThe Paper

Summarized the greenhouse effect and Summarized the greenhouse effect and its relation to global warmingits relation to global warming

Major effects: heating of the Earth’s Major effects: heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and sea level riseatmosphere and sea level rise

Regional climates: wet areas would be Regional climates: wet areas would be wetter and dry areas would be dryerwetter and dry areas would be dryer

Relationship to sea level surge was not Relationship to sea level surge was not understood as wellunderstood as well


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Forecasts- then and nowForecasts- then and now

Temperature (1989): 1.5 to 4.5 Celsius Temperature (1989): 1.5 to 4.5 Celsius by 2040by 2040

Temperature (2001): 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius Temperature (2001): 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius by 2100by 2100

Sea level rise (1989): 0.3 to 1.2 meters Sea level rise (1989): 0.3 to 1.2 meters by 2040by 2040

Sea level rise (2001): 0.09 to .88 meters Sea level rise (2001): 0.09 to .88 meters by 2100by 2100


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Transport impacts Transport impacts expected from:expected from:

Temperature and precipitation Temperature and precipitation eventsevents

Water and sea level changeWater and sea level change Abatement activitiesAbatement activities


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A Couple of Major impactsA Couple of Major impactsexpected have not occurredexpected have not occurred

Expectation that the US west and Expectation that the US west and southwest might lose ability to produce southwest might lose ability to produce crops. Major change is production and crops. Major change is production and distribution . . . Not yet, but still possible.distribution . . . Not yet, but still possible.

Fossil fuel regions were expected to be Fossil fuel regions were expected to be hit with mitigation strategies that would hit with mitigation strategies that would decrease production --- missed on decrease production --- missed on several levels.several levels.


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Streets and HighwaysStreets and Highways

Flooding due to sea level surgeFlooding due to sea level surge Changes in snow removal costsChanges in snow removal costs Warmer air would exacerbate air quality Warmer air would exacerbate air quality

problemsproblems Heat buckling of highways would Heat buckling of highways would

increaseincrease Permafrost meltingPermafrost melting Did no anticipate ice road problemsDid no anticipate ice road problems


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WaterWater

Potential infrastructure needs along Potential infrastructure needs along North America’s northern coastNorth America’s northern coast

Great Lakes navigation problems related Great Lakes navigation problems related to low water levelsto low water levels

Possible further channelization needs on Possible further channelization needs on the Mississippi Riverthe Mississippi River

Need to raise port facilitiesNeed to raise port facilities


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RailRail

Sea level surge related problemsSea level surge related problems Permafrost problems here as Permafrost problems here as

wellwell Flooding of rail transit operations Flooding of rail transit operations

in coastal metropolitan areasin coastal metropolitan areas


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Permafrost rail problemsPermafrost rail problems


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Air TransportAir Transport

Primary problem was believed to Primary problem was believed to be flooding of airports built at sea be flooding of airports built at sea level; there were several of theselevel; there were several of these

Air quality problems related to jet Air quality problems related to jet aircraft and also problems of aircraft and also problems of alternate fuelsalternate fuels


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AbatementAbatement

Stopping “forcing” of greenhouse effect Stopping “forcing” of greenhouse effect was viewed as unlikely in 1989was viewed as unlikely in 1989

Shifts to most other fuels were viewed as Shifts to most other fuels were viewed as being of little valuebeing of little value

Hydrogen – solar offered most promiseHydrogen – solar offered most promise Transport policies – tolls, taxes, high Transport policies – tolls, taxes, high

quality mass transit – not adopted on quality mass transit – not adopted on large scalelarge scale


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More AbatementMore Abatement

Telecommuting seemed to offer little as a Telecommuting seemed to offer little as a substitute for travelsubstitute for travel

Conservation – national mood not readyConservation – national mood not ready Increased vehicle efficiency seemed to Increased vehicle efficiency seemed to

offer little – industry said they had done offer little – industry said they had done all they could in response to CAFÉ all they could in response to CAFÉ standardsstandards


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What we know today-What we know today-

Sea level surge can be worse than Sea level surge can be worse than anticipated --- Hurricane Katrinaanticipated --- Hurricane Katrina Destruction of concrete roadbed of bridges Destruction of concrete roadbed of bridges Debris dumpingDebris dumping Destruction of signalizationDestruction of signalization Damage to ships at sea and loss of Damage to ships at sea and loss of

containerscontainers Tear out rail lines and rail bridgesTear out rail lines and rail bridges


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Hurricane damageHurricane damage


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Hurricane damage IIHurricane damage II


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Hurricane damage IIIHurricane damage III


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Storm surge - KatrinaStorm surge - Katrina


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Katrina Rail Damage IKatrina Rail Damage I


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Katrina Rail Damage IIKatrina Rail Damage II


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Other impactsOther impacts

Silting of harbors due to erosion Silting of harbors due to erosion related to increased precipitationrelated to increased precipitation

Freeze-thaw damage to roads in Freeze-thaw damage to roads in CanadaCanada

Air temperature impacts in hot Air temperature impacts in hot areas related to aircraft liftareas related to aircraft lift


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Abatement activitiesAbatement activities

Underestimated the potential changes in Underestimated the potential changes in vehicle technologyvehicle technology

Hybrids have come on much faster than Hybrids have come on much faster than expectedexpected

Overestimated the reaction of the US Overestimated the reaction of the US government: Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II government: Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II administrations did little. administrations did little.


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Hybrid cars salesHybrid cars sales


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Abatement activitiesAbatement activities Underestimated the potential changes in Underestimated the potential changes in

vehicle technologyvehicle technology Hybrids have come on much faster than Hybrids have come on much faster than

expectedexpected Overestimated the reaction of the US Overestimated the reaction of the US

government: Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II government: Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II administrations did little. administrations did little.

Very few nations are cutting down on Very few nations are cutting down on carbon dioxide emissions.carbon dioxide emissions.


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COCO2 2 EmissionsEmissions

Country Road CO2 1990 Road CO2 2003 % Change

Australia 54.89 68.46 24.7 Brazil 69.77 111.70 60.1 Canada 95.88 119.75 24.9 China 61.05 167.21 173.9 Finland 10.96 11.72 6.9 Germany 151.27 158.68 4.9 Japan 185.80 225.19 21.2 United Kingdom 108.57 117.80 8.5 United States 1141.26 1527.00 33.8


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Brundtland Report at Brundtland Report at about this time -about this time -

UN report raising concerns about sustainable UN report raising concerns about sustainable developmentdevelopment

Development that meets the needs of the Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of present without compromising the ability of future genrations to meet their development future genrations to meet their development needs.needs.

Began seeing sustainable agriculture, Began seeing sustainable agriculture, sustainable forestry, sustainable tourism, etc.sustainable forestry, sustainable tourism, etc.


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Asked to prepare a Asked to prepare a document on sustainable document on sustainable transport by governortransport by governor

Sustainable transport: “transport that Sustainable transport: “transport that meets the needs of the present without meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future compromising the ability of future genrations to meet these needs.”genrations to meet these needs.”

What makes transport non-sustainable?What makes transport non-sustainable?

Global warming, deceasing petroleum Global warming, deceasing petroleum resources; poor air quality, crashes and resources; poor air quality, crashes and fatalities and congestion.fatalities and congestion.


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Global Warming makes Global Warming makes transport non-transport non-sustainablesustainable

Sustainable transport: “transport that Sustainable transport: “transport that meets the needs of the present without meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future compromising the ability of future generations to meet these needs.”generations to meet these needs.”

What else contributes to this non-What else contributes to this non-sustainability? Decreasing petroleum sustainability? Decreasing petroleum resources, poor air quality, crashes and resources, poor air quality, crashes and fatalities and congestion.fatalities and congestion.


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Decreasing Petroleum Decreasing Petroleum Resources -Resources -

Conventional sources are decreasingConventional sources are decreasing Non-conventional sources may extend Non-conventional sources may extend

the resource – environmental problemsthe resource – environmental problems Emerging nations of India and China will Emerging nations of India and China will

place considerable stress on suppliesplace considerable stress on supplies Hydrogen is the answer, but still decades Hydrogen is the answer, but still decades

away as fuel cells or a fuelaway as fuel cells or a fuel


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Local Air Quality Local Air Quality ProblemsProblems

We have made tremendous strides We have made tremendous strides in this area at what we have worked in this area at what we have worked on:on: CFCs – not as good as Gore saysCFCs – not as good as Gore says Lead – for wrong reasons Lead – for wrong reasons Particulate matterParticulate matter


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Other Air Quality Other Air Quality ProblemsProblems

Not as much progress with:Not as much progress with: HydrocarbonsHydrocarbons NoXNoX SoX – not a major sourceSoX – not a major source Carbon monoxideCarbon monoxide Smaller particulate matterSmaller particulate matter Other air toxics, e.g., ammonia and benzeneOther air toxics, e.g., ammonia and benzene Carbon dioxide – none at allCarbon dioxide – none at all


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Fatalities and InjuriesFatalities and Injuries

WHO estimates fatalities will be 2.3 WHO estimates fatalities will be 2.3 million in 2020million in 2020

Currently (2002) estimated at 1,171,000Currently (2002) estimated at 1,171,000 Many improvements (seat belts, front and Many improvements (seat belts, front and

side air bags, crumble zones)side air bags, crumble zones) Emerging problems – more older Emerging problems – more older

drivers!?drivers!? Need more frequent re-testing ?Need more frequent re-testing ?


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CongestionCongestion The most spatial of all the problems – a The most spatial of all the problems – a

packing of two many vehicles into too small an packing of two many vehicles into too small an area.area.

Caused by failure to control vehicle densityCaused by failure to control vehicle density Density requires control of speedDensity requires control of speed There seems to be no technical solutionThere seems to be no technical solution Policy solutions most likely, i.e., taxes and tolls Policy solutions most likely, i.e., taxes and tolls

in some areasin some areas Or, let it go.Or, let it go.


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Transportation is only one Transportation is only one part of the sustainability part of the sustainability problemproblem

Sustainable water will be very important Sustainable water will be very important for population and human activitiesfor population and human activities

Are there sustainable industries?Are there sustainable industries? What will happen with diseases?What will happen with diseases? What if we are underestimating What if we are underestimating

everything?everything?


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Geographical nature of Geographical nature of problemsproblems

We need to understand why these We need to understand why these problems vary over space the way they problems vary over space the way they do, e.g., accidents, emissions (global and do, e.g., accidents, emissions (global and local), fuel consumption, and congestion.local), fuel consumption, and congestion.

And we need to know what will work in And we need to know what will work in different places and why this is so.different places and why this is so.

Then we need to know how to implement Then we need to know how to implement what works. what works.


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Can Transport Ever be Can Transport Ever be Sustainable?Sustainable?

Can we solve:Can we solve: The atmospheric problems?The atmospheric problems? The depleted resource problem?The depleted resource problem? The accident and fatality The accident and fatality

problems?problems? The congestion problems?The congestion problems?


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The “answers” ---The “answers” ---

We can control the atmospheric We can control the atmospheric problems with hydrogen and the problems with hydrogen and the petroleum resource problems with petroleum resource problems with hydrogen.hydrogen.

Accidents (to a degree) with policy and Accidents (to a degree) with policy and technology.technology.

Congestion in some locations with policy Congestion in some locations with policy and technologyand technology


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But …But …

Hydrogen is not ready and probably won’t be Hydrogen is not ready and probably won’t be for another 20 years … then another ten to for another 20 years … then another ten to eleven years.eleven years.

Hybrids dominant by 2020, plug-in electric Hybrids dominant by 2020, plug-in electric hybrids maybehybrids maybe

Technology for preventing accidents will come Technology for preventing accidents will come by 2030 … but we will still have themby 2030 … but we will still have them

Congestion will stay with us longer in the Congestion will stay with us longer in the mobile sector.mobile sector.


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In the interim ---In the interim ---

We need to drive less since this will reduce fuel We need to drive less since this will reduce fuel used, emissions, accidents, and congestion. used, emissions, accidents, and congestion.

We can do this through ---We can do this through --- ITS, or will it increase travelITS, or will it increase travel Navigation system in vehiclesNavigation system in vehicles Some say “new urbanism” --- we don’t knowSome say “new urbanism” --- we don’t know Increase CAFÉ standardsIncrease CAFÉ standards ICT, teleworking, e-commerceICT, teleworking, e-commerce Carpooling? Public transit?Carpooling? Public transit?


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More interim measures More interim measures ------

We need a better understanding of We need a better understanding of transport – land use linkagestransport – land use linkages

We need to take speed more seriously --- We need to take speed more seriously --- currently capricious currently capricious

We need to improve catalytic convertersWe need to improve catalytic converters We need to educate (brochures, TV, etc.)We need to educate (brochures, TV, etc.) We need alternate fuels – natural gas, We need alternate fuels – natural gas,

ethanol, etc.ethanol, etc.


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More interim measures More interim measures ------

We need full costing of transport – value We need full costing of transport – value externalitiesexternalities

We need indicators that will tell us if We need indicators that will tell us if things are getting better or worse.things are getting better or worse.

We need better (highway specific) We need better (highway specific) measures of emissionsmeasures of emissions

And we need to consider local purchases And we need to consider local purchases as opposed to globalizationas opposed to globalization


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THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

Any Questions?Any Questions?

[email protected]@indiana.edu

university of north carolina - greensboro 1 from global warming to sustainable transport 1989 –...

Documents

paper slide

black indiana university

term slide

sea level rise

paper global warming

transport impacts

sea level surge changes

aspects of global warming