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1
University of Notre Dame
EMBA 60616
Leadership and Decision-Making
Timothy A. Judge
South Bend – Cincinnati EMBA Program July25, 2013 (1230 PM – 300 PM)
2
University of Notre Dame
EMBA 60616
Leadership and Decision-Making
Please turn in your
Readings Summary for today
3
1. Introduction and Goals
2. Ways of Knowing
3. Understanding Yourself and
Others
CLASS #1
Course materials are posted on website:
www.timothy-judge.com
4
1. July 25 Understanding Yourself and Others
2. July 26 Individual Decision-Making
3. July 27 AM Group Decision-Making
3. July 27 PM Group Decision-Making (cont.)
4. August 16 AM Making Decisions About People…
4. August 16 PM And Motivating Them
5. August 17 AM Leadership
6. August 17 PM Leading the Dark Side
7. Sept 12 In-Class Essay
5
Today’s Schedule
12:30-1:00 Introductions, goals, requirements
1:00-1:35 Ways of knowing
1:35-1:40 Action Research Project Discussion
1:40-2:10 Understanding yourself and others
2:10-2:30 Exercise: Values Rummy
2:30-2:55 Personality Feedback Reports
2:55-3:00 Exercise: Retirement Party Visualization
Timing is flexible—we will often run behind!
6
Class #1
Section 1
Introduction, Goals,
and Requirements
7
Course Requirements Grades
Class Participation 20%
Final In-Class Essay 20%
Personal Development Plan 15%
Action Research Report 15%
Readings Summaries 15%
Collecting No’s Assignment 10%
Graded Exercise 5%
8
Course Requirements Significant Dates This Week
July 25 Due: Readings Summaries
July 26 Due: Readings Summaries
July 27 Due: Outline – Action Research Project
Readings Summaries
• For additional significant dates, see website or
syllabus
9
• Participation grade is based on:
– Attendance
– Completing exercises, surveys
– Active engagement during class exercises and
discussions
• Please, except in urgent situations and
during breaks, laptop lids down and
smartphones/tablets off
Course Requirements Class Participation – 20%
• September 12, 12:30-3:00 PM
• 4 essay questions
– 2 mostly conceptual
– 2 mostly application
– Completed in class
– Draw in both course concepts and personal
experiences
10
Course Requirements Final In-Class Essay – 20%
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• Goal: Develop a plan for putting course
content and feedback to work
• You will be asked to prepare a write-up
based on reports and interviews to develop
a specific improvement plan based on your
learned weaknesses and strengths
• For instructions, see website or handout
• Due September 12
Course Requirements Personal Development Plan – 15%
12
• Goal: Your team takes a scientific approach
to apply course methods and content to
address an issue in one of your companies
• 5-page report summarizing the problem and
the team’s collective response
• For instructions, see website or handout
• Pre-approved outline is due this Saturday
July 27
• Report is due by email August 5
Course Requirements Action Research Project – 15%
13
• Goal: Learn strategies for making successful
requests of others through a real-life
exercise
• Brief (3 single-spaced pages) write-up
addressing several questions contained in
the assignment
• For instructions, see website or handout
• Due by email August 10
Course Requirements Collecting No’s Assignment – 10%
14
• Goal: Practice decision-making/problem-
solving skills in “high stakes” context
• On August 17 you will be paired
with/against a randomly-selected classmate
• For details, see course website
• Grade for this exercise will depend solely
on the points obtained during the exercise
Course Requirements Graded Exercise – 5%
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• Understand the elements of good decision-
making, effective leading, and effective
management
• Use a scientific approach to managing
– Our standard approach to making decisions is
flawed—why, and how can we improve?
• Perhaps the central goal is to provide you
with tools and insights to better understand
yourself and others
Course Requirements Goals of Course
1. What is most important to learn?
2. How can we best learn it?
• This course will require very little
memorization, yet there are 16 precepts I
want burned on your cognitive screen
– Begin to consider the outcome at stake here
…What’s the end goal?
Course Overview Two Models of Management Skills
16
• We can begin to put things together:
– What leadership and decision-making skills do
we need? (MODEL 1)
– How can we best enhance skills? (MODEL 2)
17
Course Overview Two Models of Management Skills
18
Understanding
YOURSELF Do you know yourself? Do
others know you?
• Personality
• Values
• Attitudes
Understanding
OTHERS Do you understand others? Do
others understand you?
• Personality
• Values
• Attitudes
Deciding/Solving
YOURSELF What decisions do you make?
How do you analyze and solve
problems?
How can you better understand:
• Analytical tools to objectively
evaluate decisions?
• Limits of rational decision-
making?
• Cognitive biases so as to
avoid “blind spots”?
Managing/Leading
OTHERS • How do you lead and follow?
• Are there effective methods
and models of leadership from
which you can learn?
• How well do you understand
the dark side of power and
influence?
Making Decisions
ABOUT OTHERS • How can you make more
effective hiring decisions?
• How can you evaluating
those decisions more
effectively?
FUNDAMENTAL APPLIED
INNER
PRIVATE
SELF
Animus
OUTER
PUBLIC
SELF
Persona
Living Well
YOURSELF • Can you formulate a plan to
improve your ability to live a
happy and productive life?
Contributing to
ORGANIZATION • Do you leverage your skills
effectively?
• How do you cooperate and
conflict with others?
Motivating
OTHERS • Do you use the most effective
means of motivating others?
• Are there ways to improve
your motivations?
MODEL 1: Model of Effectiveness We Will Follow Throughout Course
Deciding/Solving
WITH OTHERS • How can you better under-
stand -- and thus resist where appropriate -- group pressure –
for conformity?
• How do you decide in group?
• How do you make the most of
your group’s resources?
Do you achieve synergy?
MODEL 2: Process (How) Learning Model We Will Follow
ABSTR
AC
T
CO
NC
RET
E ACTIVE PASSIVE
Experience (in/out class)
Exercises
PDP (Personal Development Plan)
Case studies
Readings
Final In-Class Essay
Collecting No’s
Action research project Class participation
Exercises Readings
PDP Exercises
Case studies Collecting No’s
Collecting No’s
LAISSEZ
FAIRE DO
ING
OBSER
VIN
G FEELING
THINKING
19
• Most of what we’ll acquire will be from
taking a few concepts and “working them”
– Class discussions
– Case discussions
– Exercises
– Feedback
– Application-oriented assignments
• Research-to-application focus
20
Learning Objectives The Method to Our Madness
21
Class #1
Section 2
Ways of Knowing
22
Understanding
YOURSELF Do you know yourself? Do
others know you?
• Personality
• Values
• Attitudes
Understanding
OTHERS Do you understand others? Do
others understand you?
• Personality
• Values
• Attitudes
Managing/Leading
OTHERS • How do you lead and follow?
• Are there effective methods
and models of leadership from
which you can learn?
• How well do you understand
the dark side of power and
influence?
Making Decisions
ABOUT OTHERS • How can you make more
effective hiring decisions?
• How can you evaluating
those decisions more
effectively?
FUNDAMENTAL APPLIED
INNER
PRIVATE
SELF
Animus
OUTER
PUBLIC
SELF
Persona
Living Well
YOURSELF • Can you formulate a plan to
improve your ability to live a
happy and productive life?
Contributing to
ORGANIZATION • Do you leverage your skills
effectively?
• How do you cooperate and
conflict with others?
Motivating
OTHERS • Do you use the most effective
means of motivating others?
• Are there ways to improve
your motivations?
MODEL 1: Model of Effectiveness We Will Follow Throughout Course
Deciding/Solving
YOURSELF What decisions do you make?
How do you analyze and solve
problems?
How can you better understand:
• Analytical tools to objectively
evaluate decisions?
• Limits of rational decision-
making?
• Cognitive biases so as to
avoid “blind spots”?
Deciding/Solving
YOURSELF What decisions do you make?
How do you analyze and solve
problems?
How can you better understand:
• Analytical tools to objectively
evaluate decisions?
• Limits of rational decision-
making?
• Cognitive biases so as to
avoid “blind spots”?
Deciding/Solving
YOURSELF What decisions do you make?
How do you analyze and solve
problems?
How can you better understand:
• Analytical tools to objectively
evaluate decisions?
• Limits of rational decision-
making?
• Cognitive biases so as to
avoid “blind spots”?
Deciding/Solving
WITH OTHERS • How can you better under-
stand -- and thus resist where appropriate -- group pressure –
for conformity?
• How do you decide in group?
• How do you make the most of
your group’s resources?
Do you achieve synergy?
23
Learning How to
Better Decide, Manage,
and Lead
Effectiveness!
Understanding
Yourself
Understanding
Others
24
Importance of Behavioral Skills Manager’s Challenge
• At the same time that a manager is held
“accountable” by his/her leaders for results,
the manager is “dependent” on the efforts
of others to make these results possible
– The dual pressure of the hard (numbers and
outcomes) and the soft (behavioral skills and
processes) are not always congruent and almost
always difficult
– But the hard and soft have permeable
boundaries
25
Is It Just Intuition?
• Intuition is important, but it must be informed
– Why make decisions about people in a manner
any different from other applications?
Whenever I’ve taken risks, it’s been after satisfying
myself that the research and the market studies
supported my instincts. I may act on my intuition--but
only if my hunches are supported by the facts.
– Lee Iacocca
– Good methods = inoculation against fads
26
Ways of Knowing What Are Research Methods?
• Research methods describe the processes
used to produce scientific understanding
• Today’s overview
– Usefulness of, and barriers to, scientific method
– Overview of the scientific process
– Criteria for inferring cause
» Covariation
» Experimental design
– Process of generalizing
– Application
27
• The problem of induction based on
experience
– Problem of observation: All swans are white
– Problem of inference: Challenger/Columbia
– Problem of observation and inference: Housing
bubble and financial markets crash
• Induction is useful, but needs also to be
accompanied with theories and evidence
that go beyond one’s perceived experience
Why Study Research Methods?
28
Ways of Knowing
Intuition Authority Hope and Faith
Personal
Experience Rationalism
Scientific
Method
29
The Purposes of Science
Explanation Control
Description Prediction
Four Key Objectives of Science
30
Scientific approach is used to study Human
Resources
There are issues with quantifying and
predicting human behavior, but objective
studies provide proofs which can yield
organizational improvements when applied
Statistical analysis is key
See handout “Measurement and Statistical
Issues in Human Resource Management” (also
on website)
Statistical Methodology
31
Moneyball
32
Criteria for Inferring Cause
Selection Threat History Threat Faulty Design
Eliminate Alternative Explanations
Covariation
Test of Mean Difference Correlation Coefficient
Temporal Precedence
33
Covariation Differences in Means
SEX
Number
Mean
Standard
Deviation
Probability
0=Female
53
3.51
0.60
0.45
1=Male
225
3.44
0.57
Question: “Do men and women in our company differ in
their commitment to their careers?”
Answer...
Career Commitment
654321
Org
an
iza
tion
al C
om
mitm
en
t
5 .0
4 .5
4 .0
3 .5
3 .0
2 .5
2 .0
1 .5
Covariation Strong Correlation (r=+.53)
34
Hours Worked Per Week
100806040200
Car
eer C
omm
itmen
t
6
5
4
3
2
1
Covariation Moderate Correlation (r=+.22)
35
Age
706050403020
Hou
rs W
orke
d P
er W
eek
100
80
60
40
20
0
Covariation Weak Correlation (r=+.08)
36
37
Correlations and Causation
• Though correlation is a powerful tool, it is
important to remember that it doesn’t prove
causation
• Correlations can be improperly interpreted
due to
– Spurious correlation (omitted variable)
– Reverse causality
Gender of Applicant Number of Applicants Percent Admitted
Male 2,691 0.45
Female 1,835 0.30
38
Interpreting Data
Question: Are college admissions biased
against female applicants?
Men Women
Major # Apps % Admit # Apps % Admit
A 825 0.62 108 0.82
B 560 0.63 25 0.68
C 325 0.37 593 0.34
D 417 0.33 375 0.35
E 191 0.28 393 0.24
F 373 0.06 341 0.07
39
Spurious Causation
40
The Judge Model Processes Underlying Effective Management
Intuition/
Insight
Systematic
Approach
Experience/
Observation
41
Class #1
Section 3
Action Research Project
Discussion
42
Class #1
Section 4
Knowing Yourself (and Others)
43
Understanding
YOURSELF Do you know yourself? Do
others know you?
• Personality
• Values
• Attitudes
Understanding
OTHERS Do you understand others? Do
others understand you?
• Personality
• Values
• Attitudes
Deciding/Solving
YOURSELF What decisions do you make?
How do you analyze and solve
problems?
How can you better understand:
• Analytical tools to objectively
evaluate decisions?
• Limits of rational decision-
making?
• Cognitive biases so as to
avoid “blind spots”?
Managing/Leading
OTHERS • How do you lead and follow?
• Are there effective methods
and models of leadership from
which you can learn?
• How well do you understand
the dark side of power and
influence?
Making Decisions
ABOUT OTHERS • How can you make more
effective hiring decisions?
• How can you evaluating
those decisions more
effectively?
FUNDAMENTAL APPLIED
INNER
PRIVATE
SELF
Animus
OUTER
PUBLIC
SELF
Persona
Living Well
YOURSELF • Can you formulate a plan to
improve your ability to live a
happy and productive life?
Contributing to
ORGANIZATION • Do you leverage your skills
effectively?
• How do you cooperate and
conflict with others?
Motivating
OTHERS • Do you use the most effective
means of motivating others?
• Are there ways to improve
your motivations?
MODEL 1: Model of Effectiveness We Will Follow Throughout Course
Understanding
YOURSELF Do you know yourself? Do
others know you?
• Personality
• Values
• Attitudes
Understanding
OTHERS Do you understand others? Do
others understand you?
• Personality
• Values
• Attitudes
Deciding/Solving
WITH OTHERS • How can you better under-
stand -- and thus resist where appropriate -- group pressure –
for conformity?
• How do you decide in group?
• How do you make the most of
your group’s resources?
Do you achieve synergy?
44
45
Outline Knowing Yourself
• Nature v. nurture as causes of who we are
– Behavioral genetics primer
– Evidence: nature v. nurture
– Personality
• Structure of personality—Big Five
– Big Five traits
– Meaning, implications, and importance of traits
• Your personality
– Your personality profile
– Who we are and if/how we can change
46
Knowing Yourself Nature v. Nurture
• One of the central ways we can learn more
about ourselves—and others—is to learn about
the general causes of behavior
Are we a product of our environment, or are
we a product of our genes?
• This is an age-old question, but in the past 20
years, a tremendous amount of scientific
evidence has accumulated
47
• Socially desirable behaviors
Diet/weight
Exercise/fitness
• Socially undesirable behaviors
Drug use
Smoking
Effects of Environment Comparison of Heredity v. Environment
48 48
Heritability
of Body
Mass Index
(BMI)
Shared
genes
Shared
environment
Non-shared
environment
M F M F M F
Hjelmborg et
al. (2008)
10,556 Finn twins
80% 82% 7% 4% 13% 14%
Hur (2007)
888 Korean twins
82% 87% 0% 0% 18% 13%
Schousbo et al.
(2004)
624 Danish twins
65% 61% 5% 8% 30% 31%
Environment Genes and Body Mass Index (BMI)
49 49
Sample Genes Environment Unique
Australia (males) 22.9 20.6 56.6
Australia (females) 31.1 16.4 52.5
Denmark (males) 44.4 4.7 51.0
Denmark (females) 50.1 3.1 46.8
Finland (males) 55.8 6.2 38.0
Finland (females) 61.0 0.0 39.0
Netherlands (males) 68.1 2.7 29.2
Netherlands (females) 50.3 13.3 36.5
Norway (males) 33.6 31.1 35.4
Norway (females) 56.6 0.0 43.4
Sweden (males) 63.9 0.0 36.1
UK (females) 70.5 0.0 29.5
MEAN 51.4 7.5 41.1
Environment Behavioral Genetics Study of Exercise
50
Drug Shared
genes
Shared
environment
Non-shared
environment
Any 77% 0% 23%
Cannabis 76% 0% 24%
Stimulants 76% 0% 24%
Psychedelics 81% 0% 19%
Opiates 44% 33% 23%
Cocaine 44% 13% 43%
Mean 66% 8% 26%
Source: Kendler et al. (2006) study of 1,386 Norwegian twin pairs
Environment Drug Use
51
Study Shared
Genes
Shared
environment
Non-shared
environment
659 American
male twins 64% 19% 17%
434 American
female twins 77% 0% 23%
1063 Australian
female twins 74% 3% 23%
851 American
female twins 78% 7% 15%
1979 Australian
female twins 70% 18% 12%
Environment Smoking
52
• Relative to differences in genes, differences
in environment appear to play a minor role
in variability in socially desirable (weight,
exercise, altruism, etc.) and undesirable
(drug use, criminality, infidelity) behaviors
Nature v. Nurture: Summary
53
• Why are genes so important to behavior?
• The effect of genes on behavior is
expressed through inherited traits
– Intelligence
– Physiological and neuropsychological
processes (e.g., neurotransmitters: serotonin,
adrenalin, dopamine)
– Personality (of course related to above)
Nature v. Nurture: What Does It All Mean?
54
Personality Definition
• A relatively stable set of traits that
determine an individual’s adjustment to
his/her environment
• Personality is relatively stable in the short-
term, but it does change
• Why measure personality?
– In order to become more effective leaders,
managers, and people, we must first
understand ourselves – and understand others
(what makes others ‘tick’)
55
Structure of Personality
• Research suggests there are five main
aspects of our personalities
– Explains 75% of variability in personality
• This structure is called “Big Five” or “five-
factor model”
– 40-60% heritable; very small (5%) environment
56
Neuroticism (emotional adjustment)
– anxious/stressed, depressed/moody
Extraversion
– sociable, dominant, positive emotions
Openness to experience
– creative, perceptive, intellectual, and flexible
Agreeableness
– kind, gentle, trusting, and cooperative
Conscientiousness
– achievement, dependable, orderly, disciplined
Big Five Traits Brief Adjectival Definitions
57
Class #1
Section 5
Exercise: Values Rummy
58
Values Rummy Instructions
Break into 5 groups of 5-7 people.
Appoint a dealer. The dealer will deal six cards to each group member
(face down). The dealer will then put the remaining cards face down and
turn one over to start the discard pile.
Object of the game: End up with the cards that best represent your values.
The person to the left of the dealer can either take the top card in the
discard pile or choose a card from the deck. Once a card is chosen, either
that card or one from the hand should be discarded into the discard pile.
The person to the left of this person then plays, and so on, until each person
has played six times.
A wild card can be any value you want it to be; you may only have one
wild card in your hand.
You cannot pick through the discard pile; only the top card may be chosen.
At the end of six rounds, take out a sheet of paper and write the values in
your hand.
59
• Do the values you wrote down reasonably
represent your values?
– Why or why not?
• What was the purpose of the game?
Values Rummy Purpose of Game
60
Class #1
Section 6
Personality Feedback Reports
61
EMBA 60616:
Leadership and Decision-Making
Fall 2013
Personality Feedback Reports
Big Five Traits
Anthony Baerlocher
Professor Timothy A. Judge July 25, 2013
University of Notre Dame
Lee Leprechaun
62
• BFI is one of the—if not the—most widely
used measures of the Big Five traits
• Scores range from 1=very low to 5=very
high
• Scores are normed for class and population
– Your score is standardized meaning that: 0 = average relative to norm
+100 = one standard deviation above norm
-100 = one standard deviation below norm
Big Five Inventory
63 63
Big Five Inventory
Raw
Score
Popul-
ation
Norm
Last
Year’s
EMBA
Norm
This
Year’s
EMBA
Norm
Extraversion 3.00 -27.69 -80.38 -67.23
Agreeableness 3.11 -105.35 -126.88 -138.54
Conscientiousness 4.11 54.02 24.92 22.23
Neuroticism 2.75 -44.24 22.14 19.29
Openness 4.00 15.03 41.27 55.88
64
• Mini-markers is one of the original measures
of the Big Five traits
– Originally, reduced more than 10,000
adjectives to Big Five core
• Range: 1=very low to 9=very high
• Scores are normed for class and population
– Your score is standardized meaning that: 0 = average relative to norm
+100 = one standard deviation above norm
-100 = one standard deviation below norm
Big Five Mini-Markers
65 65
Big Five Mini-Markers
Raw Score
Popul-ation Norm
Last Year’s EMBA Norm
This Year’s EMBA Norm
Extraversion 5.50 -22.38 -77.23 -53.48
Agreeableness 5.63 -166.67 -100.49 -154.44
Conscientiousness 6.88 32.77 -26.09 -23.25
Neuroticism 4.38 -78.57 38.53 29.64
Openness 7.38 70.78 57.68 48.91
66
Other Reports
Big Five Inventory Big Five Mini-Markers
Raw
Score
Popul-
ation
Norm
Last
Year’s
Norm
This
Year’s
Norm
Raw
Score
Popul-
ation
Norm
Last
Year’s
Norm
This
Year’s
Norm
Extraversion 3.69 -27.50 -16.35 -2.78 7.10 61.92 15.49 30.26
Agreeableness 3.76 -2.23 -68.78 -76.91 6.44 -30.12 -75.99 -86.32
Conscientiousness 4.20 -2.23 -20.81 -34.28 7.75 130.72 8.37 -0.23
Neuroticism 2.38 -34.62 20.43 27.46 3.33 -161.85 0.63 13.59
Openness 3.67 44.30 -12.95 -13.88 7.40 85.04 50.26 44.38
67
Self-Peer Agreement
.01
.41
.26.24
.31.31
.52
.45
.31
.56
.00
.10
.20
.30
.40
.50
.60
Neu
rotic
ism
Extrav
ersio
n
Ope
nnes
s
Agree
ablene
ss
Conscientiousne
ss
Strangers Well-acquainted peers
Source: Watson (1989)
68
Self-Other Agreement Class Data
Last Year’s EMBA This Year’s EMBA
BFI Mini-
Markers BFI
Mini-
Markers
Extraversion .60 .59 .55 .57
Agreeableness .35 .26 .48 .57
Conscientiousness .16 .22 .38 .24
Neuroticism .27 -.03 .45 .10
Openness .34 .28 .46 .23
69
Big Five Inventory Class v. Population Averages
3.25
3.82 3.73
3.13
3.90
3.54
3.79
4.03
2.59
3.79
3.47
3.84
3.99
2.62
3.72
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
E A C N O
Population Last Year's EMBA This Year's EMBA
70
Big Five Mini-Markers Class v. Population Averages
5.81
7.25
6.49
5.31
6.60 6.50
6.70
7.22
3.96
6.78
6.33
7.20 7.13
3.93
6.92
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
E A C N O
Population Last Year's EMBA This Year's EMBA
3.00 3.11
4.11
2.75
4.00
3.69 3.76
4.20
2.38
3.67
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
E A C N O
Big Five Inventory
Self
Other
71
Self v. Other Averages Compared This Year’s EMBA
3.54
3.79
4.03
2.59
3.79
3.94
4.22
4.44
2.17
3.81
3.47
3.84
3.99
2.62
3.72 3.79
4.18
4.35
2.19
3.81
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
E A C N O
Big Five Inventory
Self-2012
Other-2012
Self-2013
Other-2013
72
Self v. Other Averages Compared EMBA 2012 & 2013
6.33
7.20 7.13
3.93
6.92 6.90
7.47 7.69
3.14
7.02
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
E A C N O
Big Five Mini-Markers
Self
Other
73
Self v. Other Averages Compared This Year’s EMBA
74
Interpretations
• Class scores relative to population
– Above population averages on extraversion,
conscientiousness
– Below population averages on neuroticism
– Why the differences?
• Other ratings are consistently more
favorable than self-ratings
– When comparing self–other ratings, how closely
are they aligned? What might explain the
discrepancies?
75
Returning to Your Personality Results How to Use
• Surveys are among the most widely used
and well validated measure--and the most
accepted structure--of personality
• But, no measure is perfect
– Ideally, would average measures across sources
(done for most of you) and over time
• Do these help you understand yourself
better? How you are perceived by others?
– Implications?
– Relevant for Personal Development Plan
76
Class #1
Section 7
Retirement Party Exercise
77
• Readings summaries for Chapters 4 & 6 due
• “Alex Sander” case discussion
• Retirement Party exercise response
discussion
• To Do List before tomorrow
– Read textbook chapters 4 & 6 and write ½ page/each
– Read Alex Sander case and answer questions
– Complete Retirement Party form
– Meet with your team to begin ARP outline
Next Class Individual Decision-Making