unlocking mer at a sub-basin level through industry
TRANSCRIPT
PETEX 2018
28 th November 2018
Olympia, London
UNLOCKING MER AT A SUB-BASIN LEVEL
THROUGH INDUSTRY COLLABORATION
OUTER MORAY FIRTH SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP
Presenting: Colin Percival – The Parkmead Group
Coauthors: P Lindop; P Baltensperger; S Brown; P Doubleday; C Percival; J Seedhouse;
and P Taylor
INTRODUCTION
• LOCATION
• AREA PLANS
PHASE 1 DEFINING THE SIZE OF THE PRIZE
PHASE 2 ACCESSING THE PRIZE
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
TALK FORMAT
OUTER MORAY FIRTH LOCATION MAP
020021
022
013014
015
019
012
026 027 028 029
0016
0007
016
030025
201
018
0015
0080070060025
011
009
0001
156
023
0017
0008
017
0002
202
005203
0024 0026
166
ABERDEEN
N
0 50
KM
OUTER MORAY FIRTH AREA – AREA OF INTEREST
Source: Woodmac Pathfinder 17 Feb 15
Piper
Captain
Buzzard
Scott
Alba & Britannia
Balmoral
Claymore
Blake & Ross
Golden
Eagle
Donan &
Lochranza
Buchan
INFRASTRUCTURE – LATE 2017
T
Captain
Buzzard
Buchan
T
Ettrick2014
Goldeneye
(CCS)
Scott1997
2001
2007
2009-16
Atlantic
Solitaire
Peregrine
Blackbird
HannayTT
T
T
T
T T T
Britannia
Athena
T
T T
T
1993
1997
1997-2015
2011-15
1977
1998
1986
Claymore
T
MacCulloch
Dumbarton1981
T
BR
AE
-FO
RT
IES
(FP
S)
AlbaT
T
T
1976/1992
Renee
Rubie
BeaulyBrenda
BlenheimNicol
Blair
Burghley
Lochranza
Galley
Duart
Petronella
Highlander
Chanter
IonaSaltire
Scapa
Piper
Rochelle
Bladon
TIvanhoe
Rob RoyHamish Balmoral
Golden Eagle
T
Tartan
T
Fixed Platforms ( 3 - 40 years old)
FPSO (FPV) ( 6 - 20 years old)
Subsea Tieback ( ceased production)
• Only major pipelines shown. No
differentiation on service (oil/gas/both)
• Red – ceased production, may include full decommissioning
T
TT
T
T
T
T
T
Chestnut
CallanishTT
S. Tweedsmuir
Tweedsmuir
T
BrodgarEnocdhu
T
TAlder
CaledoniaT
Ross Blake
T
Cromarty
TT
INFRASTRUCTURE – 2025 DO NOTHING PROJECTION– YET TO BE CONFIRMED
Blake
Buzzard
2014
Scott
2001
2007
Solitaire
Peregrine
T
T
Britannia
T
1993
1977
1998
Claymore
BR
AE
-FO
RT
IES
(FP
S)
Alba
1976/1992
Scapa
Piper
Golden Eagle
T
Fixed Platforms ( 3 - 40 years old)
FPSO (FPV) ( 6 - 20 years old)
Subsea Tieback
T
Callanish
T
BrodgarEnocdhu
T
TAlder
S. Tweedsmuir
TweedsmuirTT
T
Based on Woodmac mid 2016; prior to Efficiency Task Force
• A plan to maximize economic recovery – value not barrels
• A holistic, common view of opportunities and infrastructure
• Requires shared, validated and detailed view of opportunities
• Phase 1 – Understand the Size of the Prize – Exploration, Development,
Reactivation & Sustaining
• Phase 2 – A plan for accessing the Prize
WHAT IS AN AREA PLAN?
Exploration Workgroup decided that existing data sources were not up to the job of being the “shared data repository” required.
New database created from wide range of sources:
• Relinquishment reports;
• Publically available reports and papers (CPR, 10K, Annual Reports, Company websites etc.)
• OGA Open Government Licence publications;
• User non-commercial contributions (SIG & non-SIG members)
Processed to create structured database – fields, unsanctioned discoveries, prospects & leads – with audit trail.
Now known as TROVE and available across all UKCS basins and beyond.
PHASE 1 – DEFINING THE SIZE OF THE PRIZE
What the data was telling us:
• Basin already had delivered three
peaks.
• Published data said it had potential.
PHASE 1 - THE OUTER MORAY FIRTH PRIZE
• The SIG study
has quantified &
increased the
size of the prize.
Total 1,568 MMBOETotal 2,734 MMBOE
Not just
‘Small Pools’
5,856
mmboe
risked by
quoted Pg
122 prospects &
leads with PR of
3.95 bn boe,
risked at 1:10
OGA ‘Small Pools’
quotes 512 mmboe
for MF (excludes
large PUDs)
Includes Shale Oil
PHASE 1 - HAS DATA COLLABORATION DELIVERED ANY BENEFIT?
Normal59%Sour
12%
Heavy Oil23%
HPHT6%
Contingent Resource
Normal98%
Sour0%
Heavy Oil1%
HPHT1%
Prospective Resource
Pre-Area Plan Area Plan Case
More detailed and consistent dataset
58%
10%
11%
8%
4%
9%
Oil
Sour
Gas & G.C.
HPHT
<20o API
20o- 25o API
Contingent ResourceProspective Resource
53%
7%
7%
18%
5%
10%
Oil
Gas & G.C.
Sour
HPHT
<20o API
20o- 25o APIHeavy
Oil
Heavy
Oil
The power of data collaboration.
PHASE 1 - DATA INSIGHTS
Open Source Data
SIG Contributed Data
Reservoir Temperature versus Depth
Reservoir Temperature (deg F)
Ve
rtic
al D
ep
th to
HC
Co
nta
ct (f
tss)
0
16,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
18,000
14,000
2500 350200 30015050 100
PHASE 1 - OUTER MORAY FIRTH CONTINGENT RESOURCE
Detail of individual pools held in Trove
Database
Themes:
• Sour
• Heavy
• Small
Heavy and Sour Crudes
• New Facility / major modification of
existing facility
Small Pools
• Potential tiebacks – portfolio for tieback
of the future
• Stranded
• Shared Facility
• FPSO – high deliverability
• SPAR / Buoy – low deliverability
TOTAL RESOURCE ~1.0 BILLION BOE
UNDEVELOPED DUE TO SIZE, FLUID TYPE, RESERVOIR QUALITY – LIKELY TO
REMAIN SO IF TREATED ON AN INDIVIDUAL POOL BASIS – COLLECTIVE SOLUTIONS REQUIRED
Excludes Shale Oil play
PHASE 1 - WHAT DOES THE OUTER MORAY FIRTH HAVE TO OFFER?
Prospects No
Valid Prospects & Leads 298
Downgraded Leads 77
Total 375
Total with duplicate
evaluations & stacked
438
Prospective Resource
No with Prospective
Resource
208
Sum of P50 PR (mmboe) 5,856
Sum of risked P50 PR
(mmboe)
994
Average PgTertiary / Sub-Tertiary
0.20.28 / 0.17
Prospect &
Leads
PHASE 1 - PROSPECTIVE RESOURCE
TOTAL 5856 MMBOE UNRISKED
994 MMBOE RISKED
STRUCTURAL TRAPS DOMINATE
STRATIGRAPHIC TRAPS DOMINATE
Excludes P&L without PR (83)
STRATIGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF PROSPECTS AND LEADS
8 P&L not assigned to stratigraphic units
8 P&L not assigned to stratigraphic units
PHASE 1 - CONTINGENT AND PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES
• ~1 billion boe of which ca. 85% requires
a new solution/way of working
• ~1 billion boe risked
• Average COS = 20%
• Structural traps dominate
• Largest volumes in stratigraphic traps
• Most stratigraphic traps found by drilling
smaller structural features that turn out to
be larger
Excludes Shale Oil & HPHT plays
Excludes Shale Oil & HPHT play
No Shale Oil play identified; does not exclude potential HPHT (~5%)
What the data was telling us:
• Basin already had delivered three
peaks.
• Published data said it had potential.
PHASE 1 - THE OUTER MORAY FIRTH PRIZE
• The SIG study
has quantified &
increased the
size of the prize.
Total 1,568 MMBOETotal 2,674 MMBOE
Not just
‘Small Pools’
5,856
mmboe
risked by
quoted Pg
122 prospects &
leads with PR of
3.95 bn boe,
risked at 1:10
OGA ‘Small Pools’
quotes 512 mmboe
for MF (excludes
large PUDs)
Includes Shale Oil play
Small Pools Sour Oil Heavy Oil
Exploitation
Cost Elements
(Investability)
Technology/
OGTC
Infrastructure
Criticality
Themes
En
ablin
g S
OW
s
● Further refinement of each theme's Prize
● Accelerate Opportunity Delivery if blockers removed
● Cost base
● Investment risk management
● Recovery Factor Improvement
● New production facilities
● Safe operations
● Importance of satellites to hosts
● Identification of "stranded" hotspots
PHASE II AREA PLAN: SCOPE OF WORK - THEME MATRIX
SOW or Theme document
No documentation
FOCUS ON KEY THEMES TO DELIVER CONTINGENT RESOURCE PRIZE
• HEAVY
• SOUR
• SMALL
WORK TO BE UNDERTAKEN UNDER JIP AGREEMENT
DELIVERY OF CONTINGENT RESOURCES WILL RESULT IN PULL
THROUGH OF PROSPECTIVE RESOURCE PRIZE
• E.G. MAKING SMALL POOLS WORK WILL ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO DRILL
SMALL PROSPECTS
PHASE 2
• OMF HAS A SIGNIFICANT PRIZE OF CA. 2 BILLION BOE – SUFFICIENT FOR A FOURTH OIL PRODUCTION PEAK
• ACCESSING THE CONTINGENT RESOURCE (1.0 BILLION BOE) IS KEY TO DELIVERING THIS PRIZE. MOST OF VOLUME IS IN:
• SOUR – NEEDS NEW INFRASTRUCTURE
• HEAVY – NEEDS NEW INFRASTRUCTURE
• SMALL – NEEDS NEW COMMERCIAL MODEL
• PROSPECTIVE RESOURCE (1.0 BILLION BOE) DOMINATED BY SMALL FEATURES
• SMALL PROSPECTS WILL ONLY GET DRILLED IF WE CAN MAKE SMALL POOLS ECONOMIC.
• UPSIDE IS MAINLY IN STRATIGRAPHIC TRAPS – TYPICALLY FOUND BY DRILLING SMALLER LOWER RISK PROSPECTS THAT TURN OUT TO BE LARGER.
• SOUR OR HEAVY OIL PROSPECTS WILL ONLY GET DRILLED ONCE CLEAR ROUTE TO MONETIZATION EXISTS FOR EXISTING DISCOVERIES
• COLLECTIVE VIEW REQUIRED TO DELIVER THIS PRIZE = NEW COMMERCIAL MODELS FOCUSED ON THE OUTCOME (VALUE) RATHER THAN AN INPUT (COST).
• KEY TO OMF AND NORTH SEA FUTURE IS BECOMING A SMALL/COLLECTIVE PROJECT BASIN
CONCLUSIONS