UNMET NEED FOR SEATS IN NEW 2015-2019 CAPITAL PLAN

INCLUDING CLASS SIZE AND OVERCROWDING DATA FOR COMMUNITY SCHOOL DISTRICT 9

Leonie Haimson, Class Size Matters

July 2014

School Utilization Rates at critical levels• Citywide, schools have become more overcrowded over last six years. More than 480,000

students citywide are in extremely overcrowded buildings.

• Elementary schools avg. building utilization “target” rates at 97.4%; median at 102%. High schools are not far behind at 95.2%.

• High ES rates in all boroughs, including D10 and D11 in the Bronx 108% and 105.6%, respectively.

• In Queens, D24 (120.6%), D25 (109.7%), D26 (110%), D27 (106.1%), and D30 (107.3%) all extremely overcrowded.

• At the MS level, D20 in Brooklyn, D24, and D25 in Queens have building utilization rates over 95%.

• Queens high school buildings have avg. utilization rate of 110.7% and Staten Island high school buildings 103.2%.

Data source: Blue Book target utilization rates 2012-2013

Average Utilization Rates City-Wide 2012-2013

*Calculated by dividing building enrollment by the target capacity

Source: 2012-2013 DOE Blue Book

Average Utilization Rates in District 28 compared to City-Wide 2012-2013

Elementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

97.4%

80.9%

95.2%

Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats• Proposed capital plan has (at most) 38,754 seats – and this if

Cuomo’s “Smart School” bond act is approved. (806 more seats funded only for design)

• Plan admits real need of 49,245 (though doesn’t explain how this figure was derived).

• DOE’s consultants project enrollment increases of 60,000-70,000 students by 2021

• At least 30,000 seats needed to alleviate current overcrowding for just those districts that average above 100%.

• Conclusion: real need for seats at least 100,000.

Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats part II

• These figures do not capture overcrowding at neighborhood level, including schools with K waiting lists, or need to expand pre-K, reduce class size, restore cluster rooms, or provide space for charters as required in new state law.

• Does not capture need to replace trailers with capacity of more than 10,890 seats.

• Though DOE counts only 7,158 students attending class in TCUs, actual number is far higher & likely over 10,000.

• Also, DOE utilization figures underestimate actual overcrowding according to most experts and Chancellor, who has appointed a “Blue Book” taskforce to improve them.

• Revised utilization formula should be aligned to smaller classes, dedicated rooms for art, music, special education services, and more.

Class sizes have increased for six years in a row

• Despite provisions in 2007 state law requiring NYC reduce class sizes, classes in K-3 in 2013-2014 largest since 1998; in grades 4-8 largest since 2002.

• K-3 average class size was 24.9 (Gen Ed, inclusion & gifted classes) compared to 20.9 in 2007, increase of 19%.

• In grades 4-8, the average class size was 26.8, compared to 25.1 in 2007 –increase of 6.8%.

• HS “core” academic classes, class size average 26.7, up slightly since 2007.  (Yet DOE’s measure of HS class sizes is inaccurate and their methodology changes, so estimates cannot be relied upon.)

• Averages do NOT tell the whole story – as more than 330,000 students were in classes of 30 or more in 2013-2014.

• There were 40,268 kids in K-3 in classes of 30 or more in 2013-2014 – an increase of nearly 14% compared to the year before. 

• The number of teachers decreased by over 5000 between 2007-2010, according to the Mayor’s Management Report, despite rising enrollment.

1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

24.90

23.25

22.3822.10

21.6821.5521.2821.1221.0020.90

21.40

22.10

22.90

23.8924.46

24.86

K-3 Class sizes largest since 1998 General ed, CTT and gifted: data from IBO

1998-2005; DOE 2006-2013

1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010-11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

28.1

27.527.2

27.4

27.0

26.726.4

25.9

25.6

25.125.3

25.8

26.3

26.6 26.7 26.8

4th – 8th grade Class sizes largest since 2002 Gened, CTT and gifted: data from IBO 1998-

2005; DOE 2006-2013

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY 13

79,10979,021

76,795

74,958

72,787

73,844

Total no. of teachers dropped by 5,000 since 2007-8

data source: Mayor's Management Report

Class sizes in District 9 have increased in grades K-3 by 15.7% since 2006 and are far above Contracts for Excellence goals

Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

_x0008_Baseline

_x0006_2007-8

_x0006_2008-9

_x0007_2009-10

_x0007_2010-11

_x0007_2011-12

_x0007_2012-13

_x0007_2013-14

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

2120.7

20.520.3

20.119.9 19.9 19.9

21.0 20.9

21.4

22.1

22.9

23.9

24.5

24.9

21.0

21.2

21.021.2

22.1

23.0

23.4

24.3

C4E goals

Citywide actual

D9

Stu

den

ts p

er S

ecti

on

District 9’s class sizes in grades 4-8 have increased by 5.5% since 2007 and are also above Contracts for Excellence goals

Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

_x00

08_B

aseli

ne

_x00

06_2

007-

8

_x00

06_2

008-

9

_x00

07_2

009-

10

_x00

07_2

010-

11

_x00

07_2

011-

12

_x00

07_2

012-

13

_x00

07_2

013-

1420

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

25.6

24.824.6

23.8

23.3

22.9 22.9 22.9

25.6

25.125.3

25.8

26.326.6 26.7 26.8

24.9

23.824

24.3

2424.2

24.825.1

C4E target

Citywide actual

D9

Stu

den

ts p

er S

ecti

on

Class sizes city-wide have increased in core HS classes as well, by 2.3% since 2007, though the DOE data is unreliable*

*DOE’s class size data is unreliable & their methodology for calculating HS averages have changed year to year

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-1424

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

27

26

25.7

25.2

24.8

24.5 24.5 24.5

26.126.2

26.626.5

26.426.3

26.7

C4E TargetCitywide Actual

D9 Schools with large class sizes• In grades K-3, there are 31 schools in District 8 with at least one

grade with an average class size of 25 or more, according to DOE’s November 2013 report.

• Lucero ES, PS 28, PS 35, PS 42, PS 55, PS 70, PS 110, PS 163, PS 199X, PS 204, PS 236, PS X114, Sheridan Academy, and The Walton Ave School have at least three grade levels in K-3 with 25 or more students.

• In grades 4-8, 18 schools have at least one grade level with an average class size of 30 or more.

• Bronx School for Law, Government & Justice, PS/IS 218, and Urban Assembly School have at least three grade levels with 30 or more students at the 4-8 level.

Examples of schools in D9 with large class sizes, K-3

45

292726262525252525252525252525252525

D9 Kindergarten30 30 30 30 29 29 28

27 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 2625 25

D9 1st Grade

30 30 30 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 26 25 25 25

D9 2nd Grade

333232303029292929282828262626252525

D9 3rd Grade

At least 30,000 seats currently needed just in districts averaging over 100%

QUEENS HS STATEN ISLAND HS0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

7,295

518

# of Seats Needed in all districts with building utilization rates higher than

100% at HS level

*These figures are the difference between capacity & enrollment in the organizational target # in 2012-2013 Blue Book

D10 D11 D15 D20 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D30 D310

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1,929

1,237

1,822

3,912

189

5,318

1,637

1,2311,451 1,476

2,279

# of Seats Needed in all districts with ES building utilization rates

higher than 100%

Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

Over-utilized ES and MS buildings in CSD 9 and in Bronx HS

• There were 18 buildings with elementary and middle school students in CSD 9 that were over-utilized. The seat need for these schools is 1,180 students.*

• 14 Bronx high school buildings are over-utilized. Nearly 2,400 seats are needed to reduce utilization to 100%.*

*Note that the seat need here is higher because it takes into account all over-utilized school buildings (100% or more) rather than the need averaged across the district.

Average Building Utilization Rates in CSD 9

*Calculated by dividing building enrollment by the target capacity

Source: 2012-2013 DOE Blue Book

Average Utilization Rates in District 28 compared to City-Wide 2012-2013

District 9 Elemen-tary Schools

Citywide Elementary Schools

District 9 Middle Schools

Citywide Middle Schools

Bronx High Schools Citywide High Schools

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

88.9%

97.4%

76.1%

80.9%

89.4%

95.2%

18 Over-utilized ES buildings in CSD 9

*1,180 seats needed to reach 100% building utilization

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160%

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200%187% 186% 185%

178%

154%142% 140%

133%123% 123% 122% 119%

114%109%

104% 104% 103% 102%

14 Bronx High Schools Above 100%; 2,385 HS seats needed to reduce building utilization rate to 100% but NO Bronx HS to be built in capital plan

Source: 2012-2013 DOE Blue Book

BRONX HS O

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20%

40%

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120%

140% 133%126% 124%

119% 116% 114% 113%109% 109% 107% 106% 105% 103% 103%

New Seats in Capital Plan and DOE Enrollment Projections for CSD 9

Enrollment projections estimate 1,687 to 2,017 new K-8 students in D9 by 2021 but ZERO seats seats are added in the capital plan.

ES and

MS N

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Cap

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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

505

835

1182

0

City-wide Enrollment Projections K-8 vs. New Seats in Capital Plan *Statistical Forecasting does not include

D75 students; K-8 Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as Small PS and PS/IS and includes 4,900 seats for class size reduction if Bond issue passes.

Statis

tical

Forec

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0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

40,589

51,954

38,244 36,654

Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021, http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public school ratio, https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k

City-wide Enrollment Projections HS vs. New Seats in Capital Plan

Statis

tical

Forec

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2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000 19,46118,387

13,483

3,102

*Statistical Forecasting does not include D75 students; HS Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as IS/HS and does not include seats for class size reduction

Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021, http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public school ratio, https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k

Also Kindergarten wait lists in many neighborhoods

Man Bronx Brooklyn Queens SI0

100200300400500600700800900

1000

751

112

679

883

163

462

211

720

942

47

569

114

622

946

110

# of Kids on wait lists for Kindergarten 2011-2013 by Borough

2011

2012

2013

2 3 4 5 6 8 9 101112131415161718192021222425262728293031320%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

38%33%

8%5% 5%

7%

18%

6%5%

43%

4%8%

37%

23%

7%

31%31%

14%

8%

15%

4%

31%

13%

% of Schools w/ wait lists by District* 2013

Districts 1, 7, 23 not included as they are "choice districts")

2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

499

1885

2588 23822361

Zoned Kindergarten wait lists, citywide 2009-13

2014 Kindergarten Waitlists in CSD 9

• According to DOE, the waitlist for zoned Kindergarten spots in 2014 was smaller citywide than in 2013.

• There were three schools in District 9 with a waiting list for zoned Kindergarten students: PS 73 (1-9 students), PS X088 (1-9 students), and PS/IS 218 (1-9 students).

• There are 1,242 students on these wait lists and the methodology for determining wait lists has yet to be revealed – unclear if same as last year.

Trailers in CSD 9 and Bronx HS• There are four schools that have TCU’s in CSD 9: PS 28, PS 64, PS 163, and

IS 117.

• PS 64 has 99 students enrolled in its two TCU’s, PS 28 has no enrollment listed for its 1 TCU, PS 163 has 169 students enrolled in its 4 TCU’s, and IS 117 has no enrollment listed for its one TCU. The capacity for PS 28 is 56 students. There is no capacity listed for IS 117.

• Therefore, at least 324 total students enrolled in classrooms with trailers in D9.

• There are five high schools in the Bronx, with 13 TCU’s: South Bronx HS, Adlai E Stevenson HS, John F Kennedy HS, Morris HS, and Jane Addams HS have trailers.

• The capacity for all but Jane Addams (30 students each in six classrooms) is not listed in the 2012-2013 TCU Report. Enrollment is also not listed.

Seats Need for CSD 9 and Bronx High Schools

• FY 2015-2019 Capital Plan adds no seats in District 9.

• 1,180 new seats are needed just to reduce the elementary and middle school students in D9 buildings over 100% utilization.

• Enrollment projections predict 1,600 to 2,000 new K-8 students over the next 5-10 years (counting housing starts).

• At least 324 students need to be removed from trailers in District 9.

• Real need for D9 K-8 seats is at least over 3,000 seats and as many as 3,400 seats.

• In Bronx high schools, nearly 2,400 new seats are needed to address current overcrowding in buildings over 100% utilization.

• Yet according to the Capital Plan, no seats are currently expected to be added in Bronx high schools.

New charter provisions passed in state budget• Any charter co-located in a NYC school building cannot be evicted and has veto

powers before they leave the building – even if they are expanding and squeezing out NYC public school students. 

• This includes any charter co-location agreed to before 2014 – including the three

Success charter schools approved right before Bloomberg left office.

• Any new or charter school in NYC adding grade levels must be “provided access to facilities” w/in five months of asking for it.

• If they don’t like the space offered by the city, they can appeal to the Commissioner King, who is a former charter school director and has never ruled against a charter school.

• NO FISCAL IMPACT statement or analysis accompanying this bill.

• In addition, the state will provide all charter schools with per-pupil funding increases, amounting to $500 over the next 3 years and provide them funding for pre-K.

Charter space provisions ONLY apply to NYC

• Upstate legislators fought off making charters eligible for state facilities funds – which would have been better for NYC.

• Yet legislators did not block these onerous provisions for NYC , where we have the most expensive real estate & the most overcrowded schools in the state.

• If the DOE doesn’t offer charter schools free space, the city  must pay for a school’s rent in private space or give them an extra 20 percent over their operating aid every year going forward.

• After the city spends $40 million per year on charter rent, the state will begin chipping in 60% of additional cost.

How many charters will there be entitled to free space?• We have 183 charters in NYC, 119 in co-located space.

• 22 new charters are approved to open next year or the year after, all entitled to free space.

• 52 additional charter schools left to approve until we reach the cap raised in 2010 – with legislative approval – all entitled to free space.

• Any new or existing co-located charter can also be authorized to expand grade levels through HS and will be entitled to free space.

• DOE will be paying $5.4 M in annual rent for four years for 3 Success Academy schools that only have 484 students next year – at a cost of $11,000 per student.

• This doesn’t count the unknown renovation costs in these 3 schools, also paid for by the city.

Blue book data & Utilization formula inaccurate & underestimates actual level of overcrowding

• Class sizes in grades 4-12 larger than current averages & far above goals in city’s C4E plan & will likely force class sizes upwards

• Doesn’t require full complement of cluster rooms or special needs students to have dedicated spaces for their mandated services

• Doesn’t properly account for students now housed in trailers in elementary and middle schools.

• Doesn’t account for co-locations which subtract about 10% of total space and eat up classrooms with replicated administrative & cluster rooms. Small schools use space less efficiently

• Instructional footprint shrank full size classroom only 500 sq. feet min., risking building code/safety violations at many schools as 20-35 sq feet per student required.

• Special ed classrooms defined as only 240-499 sq ft, thought State Ed guidelines call for 75 sq ft per child with special needs; classrooms this small would allow only 3- 7 students.

Comparison of class sizes in Blue book compared to current averages & Contract for excellence goals

Grade levels UFT Contract class size limits

Target class sizes in "blue

book"

Current average class sizes

C4E class Size goals

How many sq ft per student required in classrooms

according to NYC building code

Kindergarten 25 20 23 19.9 35

1st-3rd 32 20 25.5 19.9 20

4th-5th 32 28 26 22.9 20

6th-8th 30 (Title I)

33 (non-Title I)28 27.4 22.9 20

HS (core classes) 34 30 26.7* 24.5 20

*DOE reported HS class sizes unreliable

Some Recommendations• 38,000 seats in capital plan is too low, esp. given existing overcrowding,

projected enrollment, preK expansion, class size reduction, new mandates to provide charter schools with space

• Also very low as compared to Mayor’s plan to create or preserve 200,000 affordable housing units.

• Council should expand the seats in five year capital plan.

• Commission an independent analysis by City Comptroller, IBO or other agency.

• Adopt reforms to planning process so that schools are built along with housing in future through mandatory inclusionary zoning, impact fees etc.

• Over half of all states and 60% of large cities have impact fees, requiring developers to pay for costs of infrastructure improvements, including schools.