unwelcome trends in pedestrian fatalities: what the data ......4 sam schwartz consulting increases...

Unwelcome Trends in Pedestrian Fatalities: What the Data Tell Us About the Problem and Opportunities to Address It

Richard RettingSam Schwartz Consulting

Texas Pedestrian Safety Forum August 6, 2020

2

What Have the Past 10 Years Looked Like?Number of Texas Ped Fatalities: 2009-2018

Sam Schwartz Consulting

350 349

425

482 480 479

549

675

608 612

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

+ 75%

3

Number of Pedestrian Fatalities: 2009-2018


350 349

425482 480 479

549

675

608 612

200250300350400450500550600650700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Texas

4,1094,302 4,457

4,818 4,779 4,910

5,494

6,080 6,0756,283

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

U.S.

+ 75%

+ 53%

4 Sam Schwartz Consulting

Increases in Ped Fatalities Not Reflective of Overall Traffic Fatality Trends

Number of Occupant Fatalities: 2009-2018

2,7032,947

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Texas

29,030

29,270

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

U.S.


1.4 1.4

1.7

1.8 1.8 1.8

2.0

2.4

2.1 2.1

1.3 1.4 1.41.5 1.5 1.5

1.7

1.9 1.9 1.9

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ped Fatality Rates per 100K Population: Texas vs. US, 2009-2018

Texas US

Increases in Ped Fatalities Not Simply Due to Population Growth

+ 51%

+ 44%


Male73%

Female27%

Texas Pedestrian Fatalities by Gender: 2009-2018

Predominantly a Male Problem


Texas Male Ped Fatalities: Growing at Faster Pace than Females

+ 81%

+ 60%


221

724

1,645 1,692

681

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

<15 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+

Texas Pedestrian Fatalities by Age: 2009-2018


At Intersection16%

Not At Intersection

84%

Percent of Texas Ped Fatalities by Relation to Intersection: 2009-2018


48 58 77 66 61 73 77117 114 102

302 291

348

416 419 406

470

558

494 510

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

At Intersection Not At Intersection

Trends in Texas Ped Fatalities by Relation to Intersection


Freeways, 30%

Non-Freeway Arterials, 42%

Collector, 8%

Local, 20%

Texas Ped Fatalities by Roadway Function Class: 2009-2018

72% of Texas Ped Fatalities Occur on Arterials and Freeways


Daytime24%

Nighttime76%

Percent of Texas Ped Fatalities by Time of Day: 2009-2018

76% of Texas Ped Fatalities Occur at Night

13

88 81 94113 125 118 120

154 163132

262 268

331369 355 361

428

521

444480

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Texas Ped Fatalities by Time of Day: 2009-2018

Daytime Nighttime Linear (Daytime) Linear (Nighttime)


Texas Nighttime Ped Fatalities: Growing at Faster Pace than Daytime

+ 83%

+ 50%

14

38%

26%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Pedestrian BAC=.08+ g/dL Driver BAC=.08+ g/dL Pedestrian & Driver BAC = .08+g/dL

% of Crashes that Resulted in Pedestrian Fatalities by High BAC Involvement: Texas 2009-2018

Houston.…We Have an (Alcohol) Problem


15

23%

28%

22% 22%24% 23% 24%

28%30% 29%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Percent of Texas Ped Fatalities with Highest Driver BAC = .08+ g/dl

Percent of Fatal Ped Crashes Involving Intoxicated Drivers in Growing


Alcohol Impairment Especially Prevalent AmongPedestrians < 55 Years of Age

16

25%

50%45% 46% 47%

38%

19%

13% 13%

39%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

16-20 21-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ TotalKilled*

% of Pedestrian Fatalities with BAC = .08+ g/dl by Age Group: Texas 2009-2018

* Excludes pedestrians < 16 and those of unknown age



Texas Ped Fatalities: Growing Fastest for 65+ Age Group

42 45 48

79

64

74

63

76

87

103

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Texas Pedestrian Fatalities Ages 65+


40% of Texas Ped Fatalities Occur in Six Cities(which account for 27% of Texas Population)

11%

8% 8%

4% 4%3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Houston San Antonio Dallas Austin Fort Worth El Paso

% of Statewide Ped Fatalities for Largest Cities: 2009-2018


What About Trends in Vision Zero Cities?

118 118

146

170159

185

213

259

224 226

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of Ped Fatalities in Texas Vision Zero Cities1: 2009-2018

1 Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio

+ 92%


Why Have Pedestrian Fatalities Grown Dramatically Since 2009?

2009 Saw the Dawn of Electronic Devices that Cause Road User Distraction


Number of Smartphones in UseIn Millions


50

78

112

152

175

208228

262273

285

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


• Increased market share for Light Trucks/SUVs• Warmer winter temperatures (increased amount

of time people spend walking?) • Changes to vehicle headlight systems?• Distracting vehicle dashboard displays?• Increased access to recreational marijuana?• Others??

Other Potential Factors?

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• Pedestrian safety must be considered on local level, in settings where fatalities and serious injuries occur

• Engage in robust data analyses and field assessments to identify high-risk corridors

• Allocate resources where they are most needed• Implement evidence-based engineering

improvements on a systemic basis

• Must figure out how to address alcohol impairment -a pervasive & persistent problem

Smart Approaches Needed



• Pedestrian-hybrid beacons • Increased street lighting• Landscaping that discourages midblock crossing• Curb extensions• Pedestrian refuge islands • Rectangular rapid flashing beacons• Sidewalks and other measures to provide

separation between pedestrians and vehicles• Safe Systems Approach

Prioritize Use of Proven Engineering Countermeasures


• Impaired driving and public intoxication along high-crash corridors

• Text messaging in high-risk areas (Texas enacted primary law in 2017 banning wireless devices for electronic messaging while driving -texting as well as reading/writing email)

• Targeted speed enforcement (speed cameras are a very effective supplement to traditional enforcement, but not viable in current political climate)

Targeted High-Visibility Law Enforcement

Conclusion

• Rapid rise in Texas pedestrian deaths• Not exactly sure why; potential factors identified• Achieving Vision Zero goals requires a focus on

evidence-based engineering measures • Major areas of focus should include:

Arterials Midblock Nighttime Alcohol impairment Large cities


unwelcome trends in pedestrian fatalities: what the data ......4 sam schwartz consulting increases...

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