up the (main)stream without a paddle? the irish labour party’s electoral future
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Up the (Main)stream without a paddle? The Irish Labour Party’s Electoral Future. Shaun McDaid (University of Huddersfield) & Kacper Rekawek (Polish Institute of International Affairs) Political Studies Association of Ireland Conference, Derry/Londonderry 19-21 October 2012. Futurology? . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Shaun McDaid (University of Huddersfield) & Kacper Rekawek (Polish Institute of International Affairs)
Political Studies Association of Ireland Conference, Derry/Londonderry 19-21 October 2012.
Up the (Main)stream without a paddle? The Irish Labour Party’s Electoral Future
Futurology? We don’t offer a philosophical or theoretical
reflection on how Labour might develop We draw on opinion poll evidence and from
examples of other periods in the party’s history, particularly 1987-1992, which saw the party make comparable gains
Fig. 12011 versus 2007 results
Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2011
2007
Labour in 2011 – Major breakthrough? An ‘earthquake election’? (Gallagher and
Marsh, 2011; Hutcheson, 2011).
In 2011, Labour became the second largest party in the state for the first time
Highest share of vote since 1922
Largest number of seats ever (37)
How did this happen? Public confidence in party leader, Eamon
Gilmore Prevention and management of
factionalism within the party More centralised organisation control
over candidate selection, (see also Reidy, 2011), electoral literature etc. ‘Party pledge’.
Domination of leftist rivals, e.g. Sinn Féin
What kind of party is Labour? Major, minor, both – or neither? Major party – +15% of vote (Mair, 1987) O’Malley (2010) – <25% midpoint
number of seats as the two largest parties
Relevance – coalition potential (Sartori, 1976)
Does Labour require a new category?
A ‘mainstream’ party? What is a mainstream party? Often close to major party; potential
party of government; not ideologically constrained from coalition participation
More influence than a mass party of left or right, if less numerical support
Regularly poll more than its overall average in terms of %FPVs.
Labour’s average vote share 1923-2011
Figure 2. Changes in percentage of ILP vote
0
5
10
15
20
25
1923
1927
a
1927
b
1932
1933
1937
1938
1943
1944
1948
1951
1954
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1982
a
1982
b
1987
1989
1992
1997
2002
2007
2011
General election
ILP
vote
s in
per
cen
t of t
he to
tal
ILP Vote at DifferentElectionsAverage ILP Vote
Labour: a proximal mainstream party? McDaid and Rekawek (2010; 2012)
Coalition potential
Occasional party of government
Different from a relevant minor party, which need only be in government once
Consistently poll, on average, 10 per cent or more
Labour’s overall average is 11.25%, 1923-2011
Did Labour break the mould in 2011?
Has Labour now become a ‘major’ player in the Irish party system?
Will the 2011 election result in a re-alignment of the party system?
Second party strength in Ireland
Nov. 1982 1992 2002 20110
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% FPVsSeats
Frankfurt’s way (and Albert’s way) Previous episodes from the party’s
history are instructive During the 1987-92 period, Dick Spring
made a name for the party by attacking Fianna Fáil
Yet, in 1992, it decided to coalesce with it
Electoral backlash “[W]e [ILP] didn’t succeed at all … We did
the opposite of what people wanted us to do. People wanted us to deal with Fianna Fáil and get rid of them, put them in their place, and … we join them! And when you join those people, the people who have given you that vote were aghast.”
(Interview with Joe Costello, TD)
Gilmore’s pre-election comments “If the Taoiseach's Government knew
Anglo-Irish Bank was insolvent and he asked the Irish taxpayer to bail it out and to pay the cost we are now paying for it, that was and is economic treason”.
“It’s Frankfurt’s way or Labour’s way.”
Gilmore’s post election comments “Those who make the call for not repaying
[Anglo-Irish uninsured bondholders] have never spelled out what those consequences are”. (Irish Times, 24 Jan. 2012)
"It's a bit of a sickener to have to pay it, there is no doubt about that.” (Breakingnews.ie, 25 Jan, 2012)
Party member’s views “Fine Gael and Labour will be the two
major parties going forward, certainly for the next five to ten years until things improve.” (Interview with Ray Kavanagh, National Executive)
Coalescing with Fine Gael “reinforces the previous pattern” and prevents the sought after left-right alignment. (Interview with Patrick Nulty, TD)
Effects Gilmore’s popularity sliding – 23% (Oct. 2012).
Enda Kenny/Gerry Adams most popular leaders
Poorer organisational coherence – Shortall resignation, ‘lack of support’, etc.
Internal divisions manifesting: Broughan, Nulty, Penrose, Shortall – although still no formal group like Labour Left, Militant, etc.
Loss of dominance of the Irish left – Sinn Féin now the leading voice
A pre-election backlash? (Red C Sunday Business Post poll data)
Sep June May0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Fine Gael Fianna FáilSinn FéinLabour
And the most recent poll …
Fine Gael Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin Labour0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Irish Times 17 October 2012
Irish Times 17 Oc-tober 2012
Stuck in the mainstream? Fine Gael appear safe as the largest
party Fianna Fáil is holding up well (by some
measures the 2nd party) Sinn Féin are the big winners so far Labour could be the ‘biggest loser’ Evidence suggests a perpetuation of the
cycle, and return to ‘proximal mainstream’ status in the years ahead
Contact details Shaun McDaid, University of
Huddersfield – [email protected]
Kacper Rekawek, Polish Institute of International Affairs – [email protected]