update from the sawmilling industry on timber supply and ... · logs. as is typical, once price...
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Logs• Average Log Cost December 2015 $83/t to August 2018 $117/t
$34/t increase ÷ 58% Conversion = $59/m³ increase40% increase
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
$110
$115
$120
$125
Average Log Price ($/tonne)
Export LogsPrices across all supply points & softwood species have been impacted to various degrees over July and early August – primarily driven by RMB softening which accounted for most of the reduction in utility grade Radiatalogs. As is typical, once price softening is underway, sentiment overtakes the maths and any logic behind pricing calculations and consequently the low point in pricing tends to overrun– with the same issue evident at the top of the price cycle.
Prices have since recovered ~$5/jasto the current level of mid US CNF $130’s/jas (short A grade basis), with market conditions slowly improving and likelihood of small incremental resuming into Q4.
Off-port sales, after having spiked to over 110K m3/day in Q1, have remained steady around an 80K m3/day average from early June through to late August. This is allowing for a steady depletion in inventory, with late August at 3.7M m3.
Timber Pricing
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18
Acc
um
ula
tive
Ch
ange
in P
rice
(%
)
Price Trend - 90x45 SG8 H1.2
• 90 x 45 Timber Price December 2015 $585/m³ to August 2018 $695/m³$110/m³ increase18% increase
Accurately Graded TimberTHG – Transverse High Grader• Manual Grading
– 80% Accuracy– 45 lugs / min – 2 Graders
• THG – 95% Accuracy– 60 lugs / min (can
do 120 lugs / min ?)– No Graders– Grades the same
parameters as humans – but accurately and at speed
Accurately Graded TimberTimber Sonic Graders – working in tandem with each other• Measure width, thickness, length and weight to calculate mass• Sonic measurement to then calculate SG grade
Dry TimberCDK – Continuous Drying Kilns• 5 MW Boiler
– Gone from drying 55,000 m³ / annum to 100,000 m³ / annum
– Doesn’t vent the excess steam but uses it in the drying process
• More consistently dried timber
Dry Timber
• Accurate Control on the Moisture Uptake when treating but not compromising the level of the treatment
• Uptake of 27l / m³ increases MC by 5%
• Dry timber to 13% and then 5% increase in treatment to give 18%
• Very controlled dimensional change
Dry TimberTimber Wrap
• 80% of packets with plastic wrap had at least one small hole / tear
• Trials on woven wrap have reduced this to minimal levels
Accurately Machined Timber
• Running at 250 lm/min
• Less Downtime• Reduction in skip
dress• Smoother finish
Head Speed = 6000 rpm
Will we have it when the Customer needs it?
• Full time Production Planner
• 2 Full time Despatch Co-ordinators
• 3 Year Freight Contracts
• Opimisation Systems in Sawmill – Can change price tables
to directly effect product recoveries dependant on grading
• Historical information on customer purchases
Kiwi Lumber Masterton’s Recent Upgrade
• $6.5 million
• New Infeed to the Sawmill
• Conversion gain of 1.9%
• Longer 50mm lumber
• Larger Logs – From 480mm to 600mm