update of the long-term renovation strategy...6 23/09/2019 ltrs 2050 long-term buildings renovation...
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LTRS 2050
CLIMACT sawww.climact.com | [email protected] | T: +32 10 750 740
Update of the long-term renovation strategy
Strategies to reach a decarbonised building stock by 2050
Quentin Jossen
LTRS 20503 23/09/2019
Source: IPCC, 2018. Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
“We have no room to build anything that emits CO2 emissions” Fatih Barol, IEA executive director
42GtCO2
Annual
Remaining
Total420GtCO2
The 1.5°C carbon budget corresponds to 10 years of
current acitivities
LTRS 2050
The EU Commission adopted the strategic long-term vision towards net zero GHG emission in 2050
4
Source: EU Parliament, EU Commission, Euractiv, European Climate Foundation, CLIMACT
Oct. 2017 Oct. 2018 Nov. 2018 Dec. 2018
The EU Parliament urges the Commission to provide a cost-efficient pathway towards reaching the net zero emissions goal adopted in the Paris Agreement
The European Parliament reiterated the call for an ambitious and cost-efficient mid-century zero emissions strategy
The Commission adopted the strategic long-term vision.
It confirms Europe's commitment to lead in global climate action and pleads for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050
The European Council invited MS to work on the Commission's Communication
MS submitted their NECP’s
Jan.-June 2019
EU Parliament supports the net-zero scenarios of the Commission (in a non-binding resolution)
EU Commission provide feedback to MS about NECP’s
Dec. 2019
MS submit their - NECP (2030) and - Long-term Strategy
UNFCCC (2050)
LTRS 2050
Renovating the entire building stock requires a 3%/year rate !But what does a 3%/year means?
How many renovated dwellings in Flanders per day?
How many renovated schools in Flanders per year?
23/09/20195
250
100
… if each renovation leads to carbon neutrality
LTRS 205023/09/20196
Long-term buildings renovation strategies should help capture the key role of buildings in the net zero challenge
2014 2017 2020
MS submit their first LTRS in answer to Article 4 of the
EPBD
MS update their LTRS in answer to
Article 4 of the EPBD that requires
that LTRS be revised every years
2019
LTRS should be annexed to NECPs
Final LTRS 2050 to be submitted by March, 10th 2020
2030
LTRS will be updated every 10
years in the framework of NECPs
The revised EPBD (2018/844/EU)
amends parts of the 2010 EPBD and introduces new elements to be provided in the
LTRS
20182016
The JRC communicates an assessment of the quality of the LTRS
The JRC communicates an assessment of the quality of the 2nd
LTRS
LTRS 2050
Context
Where do we stand
Buildings stock
Assessment of the existing content by the JRC
Required additional elements for the 2020 update
Wallonia: additional measures in the NECP and the regional political declaration
Key attention points
CONFIDENTIAL8 23/09/2019
Agenda
LTRS 2050 CONFIDENTIAL9 23/09/2019
In both regions, most houses are built before the first building code
19
46
-19
70
18%1
97
0-1
98
1
19
19
-19
45
< 1
91
9
19
82
-19
91
19
92
-20
11
> 2
01
2
5%11%
39%
11% 13%
3%
Residential buildings in Wallonia
19
82
-19
91
13%
19
19
-19
45
< 1
91
9
19
46
-19
70
19
70
-19
81
19
92
-20
11
> 2
01
2
15%
27%
15%9%
17%
4%
Detached
Terraced
Halfopen
Appartements
3%2%
4%
6%
9%
13%
15%17% 17%
10%
5%
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 kWh/ (m² jaar)
WONINGEN
0,5% 1% 1%2%
4%
7%
12%
24%
38%
10%
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 kWh/ (m² jaar)
APPARTEMENTEN
0,5%
Gebouwd na 2006 (EPB-plichtig)Gebouwd voor 2006
< 2006 (bestaande bouw) > 2006 (nieuwbouw)
13%
15%
15%15%
31%
1%G
A/A+/A++
FE
B
D
C9%
Residential buildings in Flanders
LTRS 2050
Context
Where do we stand
Buildings stock
Assessment of the existing content by the JRC
Required additional elements for the 2020 update
Wallonia: additional measures in the NECP and the regional political declaration
Key attention points
CONFIDENTIAL10 23/09/2019
Agenda
LTRS 2050
Wallonia Flanders
Strengths • Clear and ambitious long-term target• Good articulation of a comprehensive set
of measures to reach the long-term targets
• Clear long-term target (EPC100)
Weaknesses and caveats
• Needs more specific measures to foster deep renovation
• Better evaluation of the multiple benefits • A scenario analysis is missing
• Is EPC100 ambitious enough?• Not clear how the measures allow to reach
the long-term target• No good view on the energy savings
obtained by the implementation of the strategy
• Weak evaluation of the multiple benefits
Source: JRC
23/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL11
The evaluation by the JRC points out strengths and weaknesses of LTRS submitted in 2017
LTRS 2050
Label A (85kWh/m²/year) in average for residential buildings
Energy neutral non residential buildings
CONFIDENTIAL12 23/09/2019
Long-term targets in Wallonia
G
F
E
D
C
B
A
A+
A++
2050
Today average
average
2013 2050Energy neutral
14 TWh
0
-100%
http://energie.wallonie.be/fr/strategie-de-renovation.html?IDC=9580
LTRS 205023/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL13
Long-term targets in Flanders
3%2%
4%
6%
9%
13%
15%17% 17%
10%
5%
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 kWh/ (m² jaar)
WONINGEN
0,5% 1% 1%2%
4%
7%
12%
24%
38%
10%
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 kWh/ (m² jaar)
APPARTEMENTEN
0,5%
Gebouwd na 2006 (EPB-plichtig)Gebouwd voor 2006
< 2006 (bestaande bouw) > 2006 (nieuwbouw)
30 years to renovate 90% to 95% of buildings means 3% renovation rate if each renovation leads to the long-term target
+ Fossile
LTRS 2050 CONFIDENTIAL14 23/09/2019
Long-term targets in Flanders: carbon neutrality with milestones on energy efficiency
Carbon neutrality
EPC100EE FossileEPC360
90% fossil
Label AEE Fossile
20192050
Illustrative
LTRS 2050
Energy efficiency milestones are key to avoid putting excessive reliance on the power sector for heat decarbonization
15 23/09/2019
1.000
2.000
0
500
1.500
-20%
-24%
+79%
+43%
Electricity consumption[TWh]
• Gradual increase up to 2030 to 3% rate of renovation with depth ranging from [-25% to -90%], heat fully decarbonized by 2050
• And in yellow : mid-range of [-50% to -75%]
Faster implementation : • 3% annual rate is reached by 2025 • with an average energy savings of 75%
EU Reference scenario
Choice of renovation strategies
2015 20352020 20452025 20502030 2040
LTRS 2050
Context
Where do we stand
Buildings stock
Assessment of the existing content by the JRC
Required additional elements for the 2020 update
Wallonia: additional measures in the NECP and the regional political declaration
Key attention points
CONFIDENTIAL16 23/09/2019
Agenda
LTRS 2050
Propose a strategy to reach a decarbonised building stock by 2050
Set out a roadmap with measures and domestically established measurable progress indicatorsincluding indicative milestones for 2030, 2040 and 2050
Support the mobilisation of investments by facilitate access to appropriate mechanisms
Carry out a public consultation
Detail the implementation of the most recent long-term renovation strategy
23/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL17
Requirements of the Article 2a of the revised EPBD
LTRS 2050
an overview of the national building stock, and expectations for 2020;
the identification of cost-effective approaches to renovation, considering potential relevant trigger points
policies and actions to (target)
stimulate cost-effective deep renovation and support targeted cost-effective measures
worst performing segments of the national building stock,
split incentive dilemmas and market failures,
alleviation of energy poverty; (an outline of relevant national actions that contribute to)
all public buildings;
an overview of national initiatives to promote smart technologies and well-connected buildings and communities, as well as skills and education in the construction and energy efficiency sectors;
an evidence-based estimate of expected energy savings and wider benefits, such as those related to health, safety and air quality
23/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL18
The strategy shall include the following new
LTRS 2050
the aggregation of projects, including by investment platforms or groups, and by consortia of small and medium-sized enterprises, to enable investor access as well as packaged solutions for potential clients;
the reduction of the perceived risk of energy efficiency operations for investors and the private sector;
the use of public funding to leverage additional private-sector investment or address specific market failures;
guiding investments into an energy efficient public building stock, in line with Eurostat guidance;
accessible and transparent advisory tools, such as one-stop-shops for consumers and energy advisory services, on relevant energy efficiency renovations and financing instruments.
23/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL19
Access shall be facilitated to mechanisms for
LTRS 2050
Context
Where do we stand
Buildings stock
Assessment of the existing content by the JRC
Required additional elements for the 2020 update
Wallonia: additional measures in the NECP and the regional political declaration
Key attention points
CONFIDENTIAL20 23/09/2019
Agenda
LTRS 2050 CONFIDENTIAL21 23/09/2019
Measures and actions of the Walloon strategy are structured around 3 axis
Enforce the legal and regulatory framework to
ensure the transparency, stability and
credibility required to mobilize investments
Strengthen the market of renovation services
towards improved energy efficiency delivered
by skilled professionals
Strengthen demand
for energy-performant buildings
LTRS 2050
Tools: renovation roadmap, building passport, one-stop shop
Financing support conditioned to realizing an audit
Priority on roofs for label F and G buildings until 2025
Increased for vulnerable publics
By 2025, all rented dwellings will need to comply with min level E (F & G), following the roadmap
By 2025, incentives to renovate sold dwellings, following the roadmap
Develop the appropriate legal and regulatory framework for ESCOs and EPCs in Wallonia
23/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL22
Key measures proposed in the Walloon Energy and Climate Plan project
LTRS 2050
Target carbon neutrality by 2050 and align the 2030 milestone with the -55% GHG reduction target
Net-zero carbon new buildings by 2027
Monitor the impact of strategy to fine tune the implementation,
Cadastre of public buildings by end 2020 and 10-year investment plan
Building passport and prioritization of works
Frame energy efficiency within the broader perspective of quality dwellings and access to it
Alliance “jobs – environment – renovation”
Objective to renovate 250 000 dwellings and 2 500 public buildings, and to develop required means
23/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL23
Key measures in the Walloon political declaration
LTRS 205023/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL24
LTRS 2050
Context
Where do we stand
Buildings stock
Assessment of the existing content by the JRC
Required additional elements for the 2020 update
Wallonia: additional measures in the NECP and the regional political declaration
Key attention points
CONFIDENTIAL25 23/09/2019
Agenda
LTRS 2050 CONFIDENTIAL26 23/09/2019
Measures to capture trigger points can play a key role
Renovations with permits
Rent rotation
Deep energy renovations
Structure issues
Sales
Other property transfers
3%/year
Empty buildings
3,9
2,5
1,0
0,6
0,4
0,0
0,0
Activity rate of the main trigger points in buildings’ lifetimedata for Flanders
What is not captured there must be captured in dwellings without specific additional opportunity
LTRS 2050 CONFIDENTIAL27 23/09/2019
Data for Wallonia
A 2030 target for the worst-performing buildings already requires a high renovation rate
F+G E D C B A
Today 46% 15% 15% 13% 9% 2%
2030 24% 24% 22% 18% 11%
2035 30% 28% 24% 17%
2040 38% 34% 27%
2045 54% 47%
2050 100%
4.6% 4.8% 6.1% 7.7%%/year 10.7%
and the less ambitious the renovations, the higher the increase of the required rate
LTRS 2050
Priorities to target are:
Commercials
Offices
Schools
There is a need to strengthen existing schemes to reachthe long-term targets
Source: CityNvest
23/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL28
Non-residential buildings
LTRS 2050
Stimualte the renovation of priority targets
Identify priority targets
Foster their renovation
Implement incentives, supports and communication suited to all target segments
Frame any project within global and long-term perspectives
Ensure a global approach
Ensure the long-term quality of the projects
23-09-19 CONFIDENTIAL29
The renovation strategy must stimulate the renovation of priority targetsand ensure any project is framed within global and long-term perspectives