update on copc action item 2008-1.5 presented by dr. bradley ballish co-chair jag/odaa and member of...
TRANSCRIPT
Update on COPC Action Item 2008-1.5
Presented byDr. Bradley Ballish
Co-Chair JAG/ODAA andMember of Dropout Team
17 May 2011COPC Meeting
AFWA
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 2
Outline
• COPC Action Item (AI) 2008-1.5 (real-time monitoring)
• Quad chart and status of work
• Forecast-Forecast correlations
• Extreme analysis differences
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 3
AI 2008-1.5COPC Action Item 2008-1.5: Develop a monitoring
system to analyze differences between the NCEP and FNMOC global models and the ECMWF global model in real-time and make this real-time system available to OPCs as a daily tool.
Initial Planned Deliverables• NCEP will generate warnings on a restricted website
when the GFS global analysis has extreme localized differences from ECMWF analyses on a 1x1 degree grid
• NCEP will develop a real-time warning system to alert us when the GFS global model 5-day forecast height correlations with the ECMWF exceed normal limits, which will give an early warning of a possible dropout
• NCEP website will have graphics to allow staff to study the divergence in forecasts in real time and show likely analysis problem areas
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 4
AI 2008-1.5Status
• Project is getting close to initial operating capability, see quad chart on next page
• A number of slides will follow showing more on the status and usefulness of this work
• Recommend AI remain open
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 5
NCEPGFS Forecast Divergence vs. ECMWF - PMO124
Project Status as of 4/6/2011
Issues/Risks
Issues:Other tasks and projects have higher priority causing the schedule
to slipRisks: The correlations cannot be computed in real-time resulting in no
viable information for the forecasters.Mitigation:Conduct testing at key points in the development to determine
viability of the project and the results.
G Finances
SchedulingProject Information (Scope/Benefits)
Lead: Scott JacobsScope: Provide a R/Y/G indication, on a web site, to the users when GFS
global 5-day forecast height correlations, compared to the ECMWF forecasts, are beyond the given criteria
Provide graphics on a web site to show the GFS global forecast correlations
Create the criteria and the software to support the web siteCreate work flow process for when a significant difference in the
forecasts occursExpected Benefits:Better forecastsBetter quality controlAbility to predict low forecast correlationsTraining and action plan for the users
Associated Costs:No hardware or software costsLabor: 4 person-months (625 person-hours) from personnel in NCO,
for a duration of 6 calendar monthsBrad Ballish – 20%Krishna Kumar – 20%Shucai Guan – 10%Joe Carr / Kelly Kempisty – 10%Scott Jacobs – 5%
Funding Sources: N/A
Management Attention Required Potential Management Attention Needed
On TargetGYRv1.0 10/02//06
Milestone Date Status
Project Start 9/20/2010 Complete
Requirements/Design for support software
10/10/2010 Complete
Requirements/Design for displaying results
10/20/2010 Complete
Support software 12/15/10 Complete
Testing of support software 1/14/2011 Complete
Software to present the information 1/21/2011 Complete
Sponsor briefing 2/16/2011 Complete
Website available 4/11/2011 In Progress
Testing of website 4/15/2011
Training documentation and class outline 4/15/2011
Project Close / Lessons Learned 4/29/2011
YG
G
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 6
Status and Results from Work on COPC AI-2008-1.5
• ECMWF-GFS forecast-forecast correlations are working very well
• GFS forecast-forecast correlation with previous GFS not quite ready
• Extreme analysis difference code and related plotting codes are proving useful
• Code to plot forecast divergence versus time is not ready
• Website to display results not quite ready
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 7
F-F Correlation Dec. 2010
Predicting low GFS forecast skill valid dates 16 Dec. 2010 12Z and 3 Jan. 2010 12Z
ECMWF-GFS
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 8
Anomaly Correlation Verification for 11 Dec. 2010 12Z
GFS low-skill is consistent with low F-F correlation
Extremes code shows important finding for this case in later slides
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 9
Anomaly Correlation Verification for New Year 2011
GFS dropout (< 0.7) predicted by F-F correlation
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 10
T700
Website will have a graphic like this to show where and atwhat levels and variables there were extreme differences
There will be more website options below to view graphics
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 11
The extremes code diagnosed this large analysis minus guess change, that appearsto lead to a forecast dropout
This example is important as we never expected satellite mass-field data to havesuch large impact
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 12
These large analysis wind changes were diagnosed by the extremes code
Radiosonde 61415 had deep very suspect winds that would have been rejectedby profile QC as done at the ECMWF
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 13
This is a case with large amplitude wind differences over a large areafor a period of time – case is still being analyzed
We are analyzing Mars, with ECMWF analyzing Venus
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 14
Background Slides
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 15
00Z 5-day AC Scores in March/April 2011
Example of low score in NH,which has not happened oftenwith the latest GFS model
Dropouts in SH are still too frequent
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 16
New adjoint code for impactof observations on the analysisshowed the GPSRO data washaving large impact
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 17
Dropout Related project areas
• Data QC and data usage
• Dropout analysis
• Analysis and model changes
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 18
Dropout Related ProjectsProject Status
Using Quickscat QC Flags Implemented 2009
Aircraft Track-Checking Implementation of NRL code Q2 2011
Major Dictionary Corrections Upper air changes in operations 2009 North American surface changes implemented in June 2010
NWSTG waypoint updates in Feb 2011
Observational Data Impact Tests Continuous testing at NCEP plus Langland has started tests
Adjoint Estimates of Observation
Impact
Langland has been running tests and NCEP has adjoint of GSI analysis running with help from NASA/Goddard
Surface Pressure Bias Corrections Preliminary testing
Data QC and Data Usage
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 19
Dropout Related Projects
Project Status
Aircraft Temperature Bias Corrections Waiting for NRL aircraft QC upgrade -
Satellite Wind QC Upgrades Both speed dependent QC and ECMWF filtering rules showed positive impact - NCEP implementation TBD
Profile QC Preliminary investigation
Improved Reject-list Preliminary investigation
Use-list for Conventional Obs Preliminary testing
Data QC and Data Usage
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 20
Dropout Related Projects (cont)
Establish Dropout Investigation Procedures
Is done and performed for dropout cases
Dropout Relation to Data Counts RTDMS extended to 30 days with January 2011 implementation
Dropout Climatology Studies Common origin areas found – Langland has shown preferred synoptic patterns
ECM Runs Journal publication in old hold– High resolution ECMWF input being tested
Improved Diagnostics for Analysis Differences for Dropouts
Preliminary investigation at both NCEP and FNMOC
Dropout Analysis
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 21
Dropout Related Projects (cont)
GSI Analysis Upgrades Operational GSI updates Q2 2011 implementation
GFS T574 Model Bundle Implemented on 27 July 2010
Analysis and Model Changes
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 22
Interagency Participants• NCEP/EMC
– Jordan Alpert– Yangrong Ling – DaNa Carlis
• NCEP/NCO– Bradley Ballish– Krishna Kumar– Joe Carr
• NCEP/HPC– James Cisco
• NRL– Rolf Langland
• FNMOC– Chuck Skupniewicz
• NESDIS – Kathy Kelly– Tom Renkevens
• The NCEP dropout team meets weekly with the EMC director, John Derber and sometimes with the JCSDA director and reports quarterly to the NCEP director
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 23
Latest Dropout Team Findings (continued)
• For more information on dropout research, see the reports presented at the AMS meetings:
http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_142644.htm http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_142649.htmhttp://ams.confex.com/ams/23WAF19NWP/techprogram/paper_154268.htmhttp://ams.confex.com/ams/23WAF19NWP/techprogram/paper_154282.htm
May 17, 2011 COPC Dropout Update 24
• Based on the code from the NASA/Goddard/GMAO
GSI, the dropout team has the GSI analysis adjoint code running
• Further work is needed to develop an adjoint of the NCEP global model that with the analysis adjoint will produce estimates of how every observation helps or hurts the forecast skill
• We will determine if smart statistics from these promising new tools will give us more precision on how to better use observations, such as:– Satellite radiance data impact estimates by type, channel,
surface conditions (water, ice, etc.) and more– Possibly better rules on filtering of satellite winds– Improved reject-list criterion– Possibly better analysis of dropout cases
Adjoint Codes