update on euro-cordex and med-cordex
DESCRIPTION
Update on EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX. Filippo Giorgi Abdus Salam ICTP. CORDEX-SAT1, Trieste, 16-17 May, 2014. EURO-CORDEX Basics Community and Models. (Courtesy of A. Prein). EURO-CORDEX Community 29 actively contribution groups - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Update on Update on EURO-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX and
MED-CORDEX MED-CORDEX Filippo GiorgiFilippo Giorgi
Abdus Salam ICTPAbdus Salam ICTP
CORDEX-SAT1, Trieste, 16-17 May, 2014CORDEX-SAT1, Trieste, 16-17 May, 2014
EURO-CORDEX Basics
Community and Models(Courtesy of A. Prein)(Courtesy of A. Prein)
EURO-CORDEX Basics
Specifications
• Spatial resolution:Spatial resolution:- - EUR-11: 0.11 degree (12.5 km)EUR-11: 0.11 degree (12.5 km)- - EUR-44: 0.44 degree (50 km)EUR-44: 0.44 degree (50 km)
• Driving GCMs: Driving GCMs: CMIP5CMIP5
• GHG scenarios:GHG scenarios:- - rcp4.5, rcp8.5rcp4.5, rcp8.5 (focus) (focus)- - rcp2.6rcp2.6 (few simulations) (few simulations)
• Periods:Periods:- Hindcast (ERA Interim): 1989 – 2008- Hindcast (ERA Interim): 1989 – 2008- Control: 1951 – 2005 - Control: 1951 – 2005 - Scenario: 2006 – 2100- Scenario: 2006 – 2100
Region (center of boundaries):Region (center of boundaries):~ 27° N – 72° N, ~338° W – 45° E~ 27° N – 72° N, ~338° W – 45° E
(details: http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/SF_RCD_CORDEX.html)(details: http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/SF_RCD_CORDEX.html)
EURO-CORDEX Basics
Status EURO-CORDEX Simulations
rcp26: 5rcp26: 5rcp45: 16 rcp45: 16 rcp85: 21 rcp85: 21
rcp26: 5rcp26: 5rcp45: 16 rcp45: 16 rcp85: 21 rcp85: 21
rcp26: 8rcp26: 8rcp45: 26 rcp45: 26 rcp85: 26 rcp85: 26
rcp26: 8rcp26: 8rcp45: 26 rcp45: 26 rcp85: 26 rcp85: 26
0.11° Simulations0.11° Simulations 0.44° Simulations0.44° Simulations
control: 22 control: 22
control: 22 control: 22
hindcast: 16hindcast: 16
hindcast: 16hindcast: 16
control: 32control: 32
control: 32control: 32
hindcast: 22hindcast: 22
hindcast: 22hindcast: 22
ΣΣ4242ΣΣ4242 ΣΣ6060
ΣΣ6060
EOBSEOBSCORDEX EUR-44CORDEX EUR-44
CORDEX EUR-11CORDEX EUR-11
ENSEMBLES maxENSEMBLES max
ENSEMBLES minENSEMBLES min
ENSEMBLES medianENSEMBLES median
ENSEMBLES p75ENSEMBLES p75
ENSEMBLES p25ENSEMBLES p25
““Standard” Evaluation Standard” Evaluation [Kotlarski et al., 2014][Kotlarski et al., 2014]
EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX
EvaluationEvaluation
• Basic features of European climate capturedBasic features of European climate captured
• Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,
• Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.
• Basic features of European climate capturedBasic features of European climate captured
• Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,
• Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.
Heat Waves Evaluation Heat Waves Evaluation [Vautard et al. 2013][Vautard et al. 2013]
EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX
EvaluationEvaluation
Bias of Bias of 90th 90th centilecentile
• Heat waves well captured, but modulations in strengthsHeat waves well captured, but modulations in strengths
• Strong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convectionStrong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convection
• No improvement at higher resolutionNo improvement at higher resolution
• Heat waves well captured, but modulations in strengthsHeat waves well captured, but modulations in strengths
• Strong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convectionStrong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convection
• No improvement at higher resolutionNo improvement at higher resolution
1. GCM Performance 1. GCM Performance [UNICAN, ETHZ, [UNICAN, ETHZ, UNIGRAZ, …]UNIGRAZ, …]
EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX
GCM EvaluationGCM Evaluation
CMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performancesCMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performances
No distinct outlierNo distinct outlier
No imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as driversNo imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as driversfor the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.for the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.
CMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performancesCMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performances
No distinct outlierNo distinct outlier
No imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as driversNo imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as driversfor the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.for the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.
Temprataure change [K]Temprataure change [K]
Pre
cip
itia
tio
n c
han
ge
[%]
Pre
cip
itia
tio
n c
han
ge
[%]
• 7 GCMs(MPI-ESM, CNRM-CM5, and EC-EARTH in 4 realizations each)
• Temperature change range fully sampled
• Extremely wet GCMs missing
2. Sampling 2. Sampling
EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX
GCM SelectionGCM Selection
EUR-11:EUR-11:
First Analysis of EUR-11 Climate First Analysis of EUR-11 Climate Change Signals Change Signals [Jacob et al., 2013][Jacob et al., 2013]
EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX
Climate ProjectionsClimate Projections
• EUR-11 confirms earlier findingsEUR-11 confirms earlier findings (ENSEMBLES) (ENSEMBLES)• More spatial detailMore spatial detail• RCMs provide higher daily precipitation RCMs provide higher daily precipitation
intensities than GCMsintensities than GCMs
• EUR-11 confirms earlier findingsEUR-11 confirms earlier findings (ENSEMBLES) (ENSEMBLES)• More spatial detailMore spatial detail• RCMs provide higher daily precipitation RCMs provide higher daily precipitation
intensities than GCMsintensities than GCMs
Precipitation ChangePrecipitation Change
•Analysis based on 9 (RCP45) and 10 (RCP85) Analysis based on 9 (RCP45) and 10 (RCP85) 0.11 simulations0.11 simulations
•Mean climate changeMean climate change
•Change in various indices relevant for Change in various indices relevant for Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) studiesstudies
•Results tested for robustness and significance Results tested for robustness and significance
User Interface Activities User Interface Activities
EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX
User InterfaceUser Interface
•Definition and analysis of Definition and analysis of impact relevant indices and ensemble-impact relevant indices and ensemble-based derived products based derived products (ongoing, results partly already available)(ongoing, results partly already available)
•Provision of Provision of a bias corrected EURO-CORDEX dataset a bias corrected EURO-CORDEX dataset (ongoing)(ongoing)
•Inter-comparison of BC Methods Inter-comparison of BC Methods
•User guideline User guideline document (under development)document (under development)
EURO-CORDEX Basics
StatusAvailability for UsersAvailability for Users
• Data-AccessData-Access (similar to CMIP5):(similar to CMIP5):
•Connect to and register at Connect to and register at one of the ESGF nodesone of the ESGF nodes
•Select project “CORDEX”Select project “CORDEX”
•Select domain “EUR-44”, Select domain “EUR-44”, “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-11i”“EUR-11i”
• Data-AccessData-Access (similar to CMIP5):(similar to CMIP5):
•Connect to and register at Connect to and register at one of the ESGF nodesone of the ESGF nodes
•Select project “CORDEX”Select project “CORDEX”
•Select domain “EUR-44”, Select domain “EUR-44”, “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-11i”“EUR-11i”
Status of the EURO-CORDEX simulations and their Status of the EURO-CORDEX simulations and their analysisanalysis
EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX
StatusStatus
•7171 EUR-11 and EUR-44 scenario EUR-11 and EUR-44 scenario simulations finished, ~100 planned in simulations finished, ~100 planned in totaltotal
•EUR-44 EUR-44 4040 simulations published on simulations published on ESGFESGF
•EUR-11 EUR-11 2424 simulations published on simulations published on ESGFESGF
Scientific goalsScientific goals
Further understanding of the feedbacks between earth system components at regional Further understanding of the feedbacks between earth system components at regional scale (chemistry, land-surface, ocean etc)scale (chemistry, land-surface, ocean etc)
Further understanding of the processes acting at the air-sea interfaceFurther understanding of the processes acting at the air-sea interface
Characterization and analysis of all components of the regional hydrological cycleCharacterization and analysis of all components of the regional hydrological cycle
Provisions of new sets of scenarios for the Mediterranean basin (AR5)Provisions of new sets of scenarios for the Mediterranean basin (AR5)
REGIONAL EARTH SYSTEMREGIONAL EARTH SYSTEMRegional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE)Regional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE)
ARCM – ORCM - RiversARCM – ORCM - Rivers
High resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasyHigh resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasy
RESMRESM
Regional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE)Regional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE)
ARCM – ORCM - RiversARCM – ORCM - Rivers
High resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasyHigh resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasy
RESMRESM
MedCORDEX MedCORDEX (courtesy of P. Ruti)(courtesy of P. Ruti)
MedCORDEX – Portalwww.medcordex.eu
MedCORDEX – Portalwww.medcordex.eu
Med-QuestionsMed-Questions
• Geophysical sphereGeophysical sphere: Are we able to : Are we able to characterize extremes at local scale? Are characterize extremes at local scale? Are coupled processes so relevant?coupled processes so relevant?
• Impact sphereImpact sphere: Are we able to define : Are we able to define ecosystems tipping points?ecosystems tipping points?
Rainfall extremes
RCM 50 km RCM 50 km RCM 12 km RCM 12 km
Do the resolution matter?Do the resolution matter?
SON 1989-2008SON 1989-2008
99 percentile99 percentile
Rainfall extremes
Obs SafranObs Safran RCM 50 km RCM 50 km RCM 12 km RCM 12 km
SON 1989-2008SON 1989-2008
Extreme dynamicsTotal cyclone center density in SON and DJF.Total cyclone center density in SON and DJF.
…and the ocean … SSTSST
Ecosystem impacts
Ponti et al, 2014, PNASPonti et al, 2014, PNAS
Med-challengesMed-challenges
to develop a regional climate system considering and to develop a regional climate system considering and improving all the components from climate dynamics to improving all the components from climate dynamics to human behavior; human behavior;
to gather and organize observational data into tailored data to gather and organize observational data into tailored data set for climate process validation and for impact studies;set for climate process validation and for impact studies;
to increase the link with the groups working on the impact to increase the link with the groups working on the impact side and to integrate impact modeling into the Med-CORDEX side and to integrate impact modeling into the Med-CORDEX initiative;initiative;
to build-up tailored data-sets able to directly provide to build-up tailored data-sets able to directly provide detailed and actionable climate information. detailed and actionable climate information.
THANK YOUTHANK YOU