Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Update on the Suitland Working Group Project on Reviewing Methods for Estimating Emigration

Melissa ScopillitiChief, Net International Migration BranchPopulation DivisionU.S. Census Bureau

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Suitland Working Group

• Task force of the Conference of European Statisticians (CES) Work Plan on Improving International Migration Statistics

• Conference in 2009– Using Household Surveys to Measure Migration and

the Size, Distribution, and Characteristics of Migrant Populations

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Objectives of the Suitland Working Group

• Primary objective: improve the use of household surveys to measure migration

• Focus– Facilitating international collaboration and the

consolidation of existing knowledge– Developing a research agenda focusing on

methodological issues where no clear guidance exists– Creating products accessible to the widest audience

possible

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Suitland Working Group Projects1. Literature review of methodologies used to estimate

emigration

2. Website repository of household survey questionnaires on migration

3. Linking registers and other sources of administrative data with surveys

4. Questionnaire module on migration and remittances5. Categories, definitions, and the importance of hard-to-count

populations6. Data quality issues for estimating migration using surveys7. Sampling frame and sample design issues for measuring

migrant populations

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Emigration Methodology Report

• Report currently under review– A Review of Methods for Estimating Emigration

• Collaborators from academic institutions and statistical agencies– Austria, Canada, Italy, Lithuania, Lebanon, Mexico,

Spain and the United States

• Literature searches conducted in different languages– Arabic, English, French, German, Italian, Spanish,

and Russian

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Emigration Methodology Report

• Data and methods reviewed:– Population registers– Migration surveys– Residual method– Panel data attrition methods– Indirect estimation methods– Multiplicity sampling method

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Population Registers

• Population registers are official lists that record vital events and demographic characteristics– Migration events are recorded as new registrations or

de-registrations – Emigration estimates are produced using reports from

local registers to national statistical offices

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Population Registers

• Strengths– Data are detailed – Data are current

• Limitations– Data quality– Coverage– Out-of-date registers– De-registration from the population register

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Migration Surveys

• Estimates of emigration can be made using special surveys of migrants – Household surveys (retrospective)– Port surveys (prospective)

• Examples of migration surveys– International Passengers Survey (IPS)

• United Kingdom

– EMIF-North Survey• Mexico

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Migration Surveys

• Strengths– Provide specific data about migration– Targeted toward the migrant population– May be more current than the census

• Limitations– Expensive and time consuming– Emigration is a rare event

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Residual Method

• The residual method is based on the population balancing equation– Observed population at time 1 is survived forward to

time 2 (accounting for deaths and immigration during the period) to create an expected population at time 2

– The observed population at time 2 is subtracted from the expected time 2 population

– The residual (or difference) is emigration

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Residual Method

• Strengths– Data are often available for most countries– Calculations are relatively easy– May produce emigration rates by characteristics

• Limitations– Prone to error in the residual term– Estimates may not be current– Difficult to measure short-term migration between

time 1 and time 2

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Panel Data Attrition Methods

• Attrition of the foreign-born population from panel data is used to estimate emigration

• Decompose the attrition from panel data into different parts– Deaths, domestic migration, survey error, and

emigration

• Two examples are provided in the report– Administrative data– Longitudinal survey

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Panel Data Attrition Methods

• Strengths– Use existing administrative or survey data– Measure short-duration migrations– Produce timely estimates

• Limitations– Data requirements are significant– Data sources are not designed to measure migration

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Indirect Estimation Methods

• Indirect estimation methods use data from household surveys on the residence of relatives – Adapted from indirect techniques for estimating

mortality– Two basic approaches

• residence of children• residence of siblings

– Age and sex distributions may be estimated

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Indirect Estimation Methods

• Strengths– Estimates include the recently emigrated population– Questions on the residence of relatives can be added

to existing household surveys– Measures the emigration of both the native and

foreign-born populations

• Limitations– Estimates do not include whole family migrations– Emigration rates can cover long time periods

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Multiplicity Sampling Method

• Also uses data from household surveys on the residence of relatives – Accounts for multiplicity in the sample– Multiplicity is caused when an emigrant has more

than one relative that can identify them– Multiplicity adjustment uses probabilities to refine the

emigration estimate

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Multiplicity Sampling Method

• Strengths– Similar to the strengths of indirect estimation methods– Adjusts for the double-count of emigrants

• Limitations– Similar limitations to the indirect estimation methods– Multiplicity adjustment may have a large impact on

the final estimate

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Conclusion

• When released, the report, A Review of Methods for Estimating Emigration, will be a valuable resource document

• The project is ongoing and comments or feedback are being solicited

• Please send questions or comments to Eric.B.Jensen@census.gov

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