updated dprk energy balance (draft) and work to be done

Updated DPRK Energy Updated DPRK Energy Balance (Draft) and Balance (Draft) and

Work to Be DoneWork to Be Done

Dr. David F. Von Hippel andDr. David F. Von Hippel andDr. Jungmin KangDr. Jungmin KangNautilus Institute Senior AssociatesNautilus Institute Senior Associates

Prepared for the “DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study Group MeetingGroup Meeting”, Stanford University, California

June 26 - 27, 2006

DPRK Energy Experts Study DPRK Energy Experts Study GroupGroup 2 Von Hippel/Kang 6/2006

THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: OUTLINE OF PRESENTATIONOUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

Background to Nautilus DPRK Energy Analysis

DPRK Energy Balance UpdateOverall ApproachRecent Trends in DPRK EconomyDatabase UpdatesOverview of Draft Results: Energy

Supply/DemandNext Steps in Update


PREVIOUS AND ONGOING NAUTILUS INSTITUTE DPRK ENERGY WORK

1986-94: Nuclear Weapons/Proliferation Issues 1992-97: UN Energy-Environment Missions 1995: DPRK Energy Supply/Demand and

Energy Efficiency Study 1996: KEDO-HFO Supply and Demand Study 1997: Supply and Demand for Electricity in the

DPRK--1990, 1996, and Future Paths 1997-02: DPRK Village Energy Project, Study

Tours, and Proposal Collaboration 2002: Update to 2000 base year (with KEEI) 2006: Update to 2005 base year (with KEEI)


NAUTILUS INSTITUTE DPRK NAUTILUS INSTITUTE DPRK ENERGY ANALYSISENERGY ANALYSIS

OVERALL APPROACH Obtain as much information as possible about

the DPRK economy, energy sector from media sources, literature sources, visitors to the DPRK, trade statistics, market observers, other sources

Information used includes quantitative, anecdotal Use available information, comparative analysis,

and judgment to assemble a coherent and consistent picture of the DPRK energy sector

Use physical measures and intensities whenever possible


NAUTILUS INSTITUTE DPRK NAUTILUS INSTITUTE DPRK ENERGY ANALYSISENERGY ANALYSIS

OVERALL APPROACH Think about possible future paths for DPRK

energy sector/economy, what changes (national, regional, global) might bring those paths about, implication of changes for end-use, infrastructure

Including consideration of role of DPRK in regional energy economy

Role of ROK in future energy paths, including additional energy sector “connections” on the Korean peninsula

Update periodically (including this year)


DPRK ENERGY BALANCE UPDATE: OVERALL APPROACH

Start with demand/supply estimates prepared for 1990, 1996, 2000

Modification of 1990/96/2000 estimates of demand for fuels to reflect reports of recent changes in conditions in the DPRK

Revision of 2000 electricity supply estimates to meet 2005 demand, reflect thermal/hydro capacity/availability changes

Estimation of 2005 oil supply reflecting available information (including “official” and "unofficial" trades)



Revision of oil products demand to meet the overall supply for major oil products

Set level of coal and biomass supply to meet demand

Consistent with information about coal infrastructure, forest productivity

Re-adjust supply/demand of other fuels as necessary to produce rough balance

Overall, approach: Obtain all information germane to DPRK energy sector

Sift, fit with other data, prepare internally consistent energy balance



Information collected from: Reports by others Media reports Official statistics of DPRK trading

partners Information on the DPRK from ROK

government agencies Reports of visitors to and observers of

the DPRK DPRK Energy Experts Study Group



Energy Balance Elements--Rows Domestic resources extraction, imports,

exports Energy “transformation processes”– refining,

electricity production, losses… Energy demand sectors – industrial,

residential, transport… Energy Balance Elements– Columns

Fuel/resource categories – in DPRK Energy Analysis work, general and by refined product

For each fuel/resource considered, demand and supply must balance

Iterative analysis to balance columns


DPRK ENERGY BALANCE UPDATE: DRAFT ENERGY BALANCE TABLE

ESTIMATED SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE FOR 2005

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)COAL & COKE

CRUDE OIL

REF. PROD

HYDRO/NUCL.

WOOD/ BIOMASS

CHAR-COAL ELEC. TOTAL

ENERGY SUPPLY 431 24 25 32 288 - (5) 794

Domestic Production 384 - - 32 280 - - 696 Imports 52 24 25 - 8 - - 109 Exports 6 - - - - - 5 11 Stock Changes - - - - - - - -

ENERGY TRANSF. (104) (24) 16 (32) (5) 2 38 (109)

Electricity Generation (82) - (6) (32) - - 59 (60) Petroleum Refining - (24) 23 - - - - (1) Coal Prod./Prep. (18) - - - - - (2) (21) Charcoal Production - - - - (5) 2 - (4) Own Use - - (1) - - - (3) (5) Losses (5) - - - - - (15) (20)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS. 326 - 42 - 283 2 32 685

ENERGY DEMAND 326 - 42 - 283 2 32 685

INDUSTRIAL 162 - 10 - 0 - 13 186 TRANSPORT - - 11 - 1 - 4 15 RESIDENTIAL 92 - 4 - 211 2 3 312 AGRICULTURAL 8 - 1 - 41 - 2 53 FISHERIES - - 1 - - - 0 1 MILITARY 38 - 13 - - - 5 57 PUBLIC/COMML 24 - - - - - 4 28 NON-SPECIFIED - - NON-ENERGY 2 2 29 33

- Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe) 4.91 - 0.17 11.26 - - - 16.34


THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: RECENT TRENDS (1990s)RECENT TRENDS (1990s)

Decline in the supply of crude oil Continuing degradation of electricity

generation, T&D infrastructure Continuing degradation of industrial facilities International trade in magnesite Difficulties with transport of all goods,

especially coal Difficulties in coal production related to lack

of electricity, mine flooding


THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: RECENT TRENDS (2000-on)RECENT TRENDS (2000-on)

Some economic revival, but mostly associated with foreign aid and/or in areas of the economy that are not energy intensive (markets, restaurants, small agriculture)

Cessation of KEDO Heavy Fuel Oil deliveries Supply of electricity to Kaesong from ROK Electricity imports from China (modest) Cross border trade in oil/oil products(?) Construction of small power plants (possibly

not connected to main grid)


THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DATABASE UPDATES FOR 2005DATABASE UPDATES FOR 2005

Database update in early phase, but possible changes include: Somewhat improved electricity generation and

electricity availability in recent years Modest additions to industrial capacity in recent

years (but likely not across the board) Impacts of recent ROK/PRC infrastructure

investments Changes in official/unofficial fuels imports/exports Revisit assumptions regarding fuelwood/biomass

and coal use in rural residential sector Modest changes in transport sector Adjustments to revise fuel use in military sector



Key Questions for Experts Study Group Input: DPRK Energy Supply

Have there been recent significant changes in generating capacity, or change to T&D?

What is total capacity of reported new small power plants, and what is their average capacity factor?

What have been the trends/amounts of fuels imports/exports to/from the PRC, RF?

Have there been recent significant changes in the coal mining sector resulting in changes in coal availability?

What is the status of fuelwood and biomass production?


DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY: IMAGESDPRK ENERGY SUPPLY: IMAGES



Key Questions for Experts Study Group Input: DPRK Energy Demand

What do recent economic changes (for example, in the commercial sector) mean for energy use?

Recent trends in rural household and services energy use--fuelwood/biomass, coal, electricity?

Has heavy industry in the DPRK changed significantly in recent years?

What impacts have recent ROK/PRC industrial sector investments had on energy use?

Recent trends in agricultural sector energy use? Modest changes in transport sector Have military “exercise tempos” changed recently?


DPRK ENERGY DEMAND: IMAGESDPRK ENERGY DEMAND: IMAGES


THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DRAFT RESULTSDRAFT RESULTS

ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE: 2005 (ROUGH DRAFT)

COAL & COKE54%

WOOD/ BIOMASS

36%

CRUDE OIL3%

HYDRO/NUCL.4%

REF. PROD3%



ESTIMATED DPRK ENERGY DEMAND BY TYPE: 2005 (ROUGH DRAFT)

27%

46%

8%

0%

8%

4%

5%

2%0%

INDUSTRIAL

TRANSPORT

RESIDENTIAL

AGRICULTURAL

FISHERIES

MILITARY

PUBLIC/COMML

NON-SPECIFIED

NON-ENERGY



DPRK Energy Demand by Sector: 1990, 1996, 2000, and 2005

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 1996 2000 2005

Pe

tajo

ule

s

INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

RESIDENTIAL AGRICULTURAL FISHERIES MILITARY

PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL NON-SPECIFIED/OTHERNON-ENERGY



DPRK Energy Demand by Fuel: 1990, 1996, 2000, and 2005

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 1996 2000 2005

Pe

tajo

ule

s

COAL & COKE REFINED PRODUCTS

WOOD/BIOMASS CHARCOALELECTRICITY



Gross Generation in the DPRK, 1990, 1996, 2000, and 2005

-5

101520253035404550

1990 1996 2000 2005

Te

raw

att

-ho

urs

COAL-FIRED

HFO-FIRED

HYDRO


DPRK ENERGY DATABASE DPRK ENERGY DATABASE UPDATES: NEXT STEPSUPDATES: NEXT STEPS

Review papers/presentations prepared for this Meeting and other information gleaned from Participants

Continue review of available DPRK literature Interview additional recent visitors to the DPRK Revise/rebalance analysis of 2005 Energy

Supply/Demand Obtain reviews of draft database/Report, and revise

as appropriate Prepare Final Report Use Report results, other materials/ideas collected

to work with others to identify and elaborate possible sets of activities to assist DPRK energy sector redevelopment


ROK DATA ON DPRK ENERGY ROK DATA ON DPRK ENERGY AND COMBINED KOREAN MODELAND COMBINED KOREAN MODEL

Reviewing ROK literature on DPRK energy sector and economy Available data in Korean Trace down ultimate sources of figures in ROK literature to

the extent possible Use DPRK database to develop model of future

energy supply/demand in the DPRK (using the LEAP energy/ environment software tool)

In a parallel effort, develop and update ROK database in LEAP

Use DPRK, ROK LEAP datasets to develop coordinated energy paths for Korea as a whole Including paths in which energy resource links are made

with other countries in Northeast Asia


THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

updated dprk energy balance (draft) and work to be done

Documents

dprk energy supplydemand

dprk energy sectoreconomy

dprk energy sectorsift

dprk village energy

future energy paths

energy supplydemandnext

energy efficiency study1996

overall supply