uq annual report on queensland’s gasfields communities · 9 uq-ccsg centre for coal seam gas...
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1UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
What happens when coal seam gas comes to town?
UQ Annual Report on Queensland’s Gasfields Communities
Dr Katherine Witt, Simone Elias
21 June 2018
2UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Context: Growing demand for natural gas as energy source
… particularly in the Asia Pacific region
http://dolcera.com/wiki/images/Global_Natural_gas_demand_prediction_by_EIA.jpg
3UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Coal Seam Gas in Queensland & Australia…
https://www.dnrm.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/345616/uwir-surat-basin-2016.pdfhttps://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-112/issue-5/special-report-offshore-petroleum-operations/australia-emerging-as-top-lng-supplier.html
… part of the energy mix
4UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
What CSG development looks like…
http://www.probuildcivil.com.au/our-expertise/roadworks
http://www.abc.net.au/site-archive/rural/content/2011/s3322318.htm
http://www.rmaeng.com.au/projects/retail-commercial
http://www.water-technology.net/projects/-qgc-kenya-water-treatment-plant-queensland/
http://www.colelawson.com.au
evacuationgrounds.blogspot.com
5UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Purpose
To identify and assess cumulative social and
economic effects of coal seam gas development
(so they can be better managed)
Approach
Novel - draws on complex systems theory, shared
measurement, blends qualitative with quantitative
analysis.
Our research
6UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
2017 Annual Report on Gasfields Communities
7UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Town level indicators
Theme
PopulationPopulation, Non-resident
worker populatione.g. Pop. by age
Housing House prices, Rents e.g. Bldg approvals
Employment & Income
Unemployment rates, Average income, Average
wagee.g. By industry
Community Wellbeing & Safety
Selected crime rates, Traffic offences e.g. Opinion survey
Education & Skills Training completions e.g. Student turnover
Other influences Rainfall, Petrol prices e.g. Cattle prices
Business Business income e.g. Entries & exits
Health Air quality e.g. Hospital records
Agriculture Productivity, Profitability e.g. Weeds &pests
8UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Phase 1: Systems view
http://webeyedea.info/studentwork-10-11/2-box-project/alena/pages/vans_and_lorries.htmlUQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
9UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Population
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000Chinchilla
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000Dalby
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800Miles
0
200
400
600
800
1,000Wandoan
Residents Non-resident workers
Chinchilla and Dalby not in ‘rural decline’
Increases seen in youth populations from 2011, down again in 2016
‘Fluoro workshirts’
10UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Workshirts and social identity???
https://farmers.org.au/news-updates/nff-news/Sea-of-green-engulfs-Australia-as-QLD-fights-unjust-native-veg-laws.html
11UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Chinchilla
Miles-Wandoan
Tara
Dalby
Queensland
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Un
emp
loym
ent
rate
(%
)
Unemployment• Skills shortages- employers
struggle to maintain and
recruit employees
• Wages go up as
competition for labour
increases
• Innovative ‘loyalty
packages’, .e.g. handyman
• Increasing since CSG
construction ended
• In-migration?
Employment
12UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
• Average personal incomes
rose during construction
period
• For taxable and non-
taxable individuals
• Greater diversity in average
incomes
Chinchilla
Miles
Wandoan
Tara
DalbyQLD
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Average taxable income(taxable individuals)
Incomes
13UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Chinchilla
Miles-Wandoan
Tara
Dalby
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Pri
ce (
$A
U)
House values(Median sale price)
Housing
• Chinchilla & Miles
experienced biggest
housing market “shocks”
• Sale values perceived to be
depressed
• Recent upward trend in
number of sales – values
may now start to rise
• Anecdotal evidence:
– Mortgage > property value;
can’t sell
– Consortiums buying rural
land earmarked for CSG
wells (aiming to benefit
from CCA payments).
Potential to inflate
agricultural land prices.
14UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Chinchilla
Miles-Wandoan
Tara
Dalby
Queensland
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pri
ce (
$A
U)
Rent(Median weekly; 3-bed)
Housing
• Rents are stabilising – low
vacancy rates, some rental
increase
• Low rents have attracted
low income families into
towns
15UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Housing
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
No
. of
resi
den
tial
ap
pro
vals
Pri
ce (
$A
U)
House values cf. residential building approvals
Chinchilla
Miles-Wandoan
16UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Housing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bu
ildin
g ap
pro
vals
Ren
t ($
)/N
um
ber
of
NR
Ws
NRWs + Das + Rent for Miles/Wandoan
Residential building approvals (No.) Non-resident workers population
3 bed median rent ($/week)
17UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Chinchilla
Miles
Wandoan
Tara
Dalby
Queensland
0
50
100
150
200
No
. of
off
ence
s p
er 1
,00
0 p
erso
ns
per
yea
r
Crime
• Drugs (ice) & juvenile crime are the key crime issues (both stats & community perceptions)
• Wandoan the only town that has not seen substantial increase in crime (others >60% since 2013)
• Increases attributed to:
– Increased disposable incomes and drug availability
– Influx of low income individuals
– Increased domestic violence
– More proactive police enforcement
• High concern regarding drugs
• Community acknowledges that drugs are increasing everywhere
18UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Cumulative effects?
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
No
. of
Off
ence
s
Good Order OffencesChinchilla
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Other theft
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Weapons Offences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
DVO Breaches
19UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
CSG is not like mining
ChinchillaRomaMoranbah
Dalby
QLD
Dysart
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pri
ce (
$A
U)
Rent(Median weekly; 3-bed)
Chinchilla
Roma
Moranbah
Dysart
DalbyQLD
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Average taxable income(taxable individuals)
20UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Business counts by sector, by employment and by turnover…
From 2009 - 2017 (ABS):
23% in businesses with turnover $0-50K (but more cons, F&I.)
25% in businesses with turnover $50-100K(retail)
3% in businesses with turnover $100-200K (other, F&I, trans, retail)
9% in businesses with turnover $200-500K (hiring, accom, cons)
40% in businesses with turnover $500K-2M (ag, trans)
62.5% in businesses with turnover $2M. (ag, but cons, retail )
33% increase in numbers of larger employers (20-199).
22% increases in sole operators
8% increase in small employers (1-4), but 6% decrease in medium (5-19).
Business capability- Miles
21UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Business capability- perceptions (Miles)
• Community views on changed capabilities are divided.
• Some feel that business and community capabilities have been either unaffected or
diminished by CSG development in the area. Others suggest that some individuals and
business skills have grown (e.g. negotiation skills, safety)
• Improved capability through steady income stream to agricultural sector (CSG
compensation money), better mobile phone and internet coverage, better roads.
• NRWs boosted volunteering capacity in the Miles community through event assistance
and fundraising. The absence of these volunteers has been a loss to community groups.
• Those businesses that endured through the “bust” are now better equipped to exploit
future opportunities, as they were forced to upgrade to best practice systems and
processes, and have generally upskilled in interacting with large companies.
22UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
Measuring social impacts... facts and perceptions
Roma postcard c1962 Source: Queensland Historical Atlas 2013http://www.qhatlas.com.au/frack-or-frack-off-coal-seam-gas
Posted by Mark Anning on Knitting Nannas twitter feed November 2016Source: Knitting Nannashttps://twitter.com/knittingnannas
1962 2016
23UQ-CCSG
Centre for Coal Seam Gas
UQ-CCSGCentre for Coal Seam Gas
THANK YOU
Questions and comments welcome