uranium participation corp they do a repeat of paladin energy in 2007? 2) permits are easier to...
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UraniumParticipationCorp:”HeadsIwin,tailsIdon’tlose(much)”Briefoverview:Marketcap:530MCAD$(400MUSD$),shareprice3.99CAD$1)Aholderofuranium.100%tiedtothepriceofuranium,noleverage2)Neitheraminernoranexplorer=nooperatingrisk3)Hastradedatapremiumsince2017.Couldbeanindicationofhigherprices.
Cameco:”Astrongbalancesheetandthebestminesintheindustrysecureslongtermsurvivalinamarketwherecompetitorsaredroppinglikeflies”Briefoverview:Marketcap:4,800MCAD$(3,700MUSD$),shareprice11.98CAD$U3O8Reserves(Proven+Probable):450millionpoundsTotalproductionannuallywhenallminesareinoperation:33millionpoundsCashrunrate:Likely10+years,butitdependsontheoutcomeofataxdispute1)Strongestbalancesheetinthesectorthatcanwithstandalongdownturn2)Ownsthetwobiggestandhighestgrademinesintheworld3)Sizeoftheirmineralreserves=areliablesupplier=competitiveedge=higherpricesDownside:1)Taxdisputecanpotentiallymakeabigdentonthebalancesheet2)Fatcontractsfromthegoodtimesarecomingtoanend
UEC:”Distressedvalueinvesting”Briefoverview:Marketcap:260MCAD$(200MUSD$),shareprice1.32USD$U3O8Reserves(Measured+Indicated):60millionpoundsTotalpossibleproductiontwomonthsfromnow:4millionpoundsCashrunrate:1year1)Strategy:Buyingcheapassetsfromdistressedsellersinneedofcash2)InSituRecovery=cheapstartupcostsareafractionofconventionalmining2)WilltheUSsubsidizedomesticuraniumproduction?3)Atitaniumdepositmaygetmonetizedthisyear–valuation50-200MUSD4)BackedbyLiKashing,Sprottandotherlong-termholders5)TheCEOisalargeshareholderandhasaddedduring2017ashaveothersDownside:1)Whathappenswhencashrunsout?2)Potentialdilution
GoviExLtd:”CheapassetsinAfrica”Briefoverview:Marketcap:75MCAD$(60MUSD$),shareprice0.215CAD$U3O8Reserves(Measured+Indicated):140millionpoundsTotalpossibleproductionin2020:3millionpounds(5in2023)Cashrunrate:1year1)Cheapassets.WilltheydoarepeatofPaladinEnergyin2007?2)Permitsareeasiertoobtain3)Higherthanaveragegradedeposit(forAfrica)4)Recentlyderiskedbypayingoffabigloanaheadoftime5)BackedbyIvanhoeMines,DenisonMines6)Aninvestmentmustbetreatedlikeanoption.It’sa10x+or0propositionDownside:1)BigstartupspendingofUS$359millionforbuildingamine2)Whathappenswhencashrunsout?
3ExplorersinUraniumHeaven,theAthabascaBasin:DenisonMines,NexgenEnergy,FissionUraniumBriefoverview:Marketcaps:300-1000MCAD$(200-800MUSD$)Production:2023+Cashrunrates:2-3years.Allarebackedbystrong,long-termshareholderbase
PositionSizing:Betbigandsafeorsmallandaggressive?