urban development strategy for vietnam cities system...

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Day1, Plenary 8, No.8VIAP, Ministry of Construction, Vietnam

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Urban Development Strategy for Vietnam Cities System to 2050

By Ngo Trung Hai, General Director of Vietnam Institute for Architecture, Urban and Rural Planning (VIAP), Ministry of Construction

International Conference on Eco2 Cities, and Workshop for East Asia Pilot Eco2 Cities

October 20-23, 2010 in Yokohama, Japan

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Vietnam is urbanizing rapidly, and the current rate outpaces the later part of the 20th century.

• 2009: closely 30%, • 1980 ‐ 1989:

19,17% ‐ 19,79% (less than 1%).

Since 2000, the rate increases from 22% to nearly 29% (7% increasing).

Urban development continues in Vietnam, even with slow‐down in the global economy.

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58.3

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30.4

62.6

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57

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20

40

60

80

100

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1995 2000 2010 2020

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D©n sè ®« thÞ(triÖung- êi)D©n sè n«ngth«n(triÖu ng- êi)

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33

20

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1995 2000 2010 2020

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Overview of Vietnam urban development In the period 1999‐2009, urban population increased from 18.3 million (1999) to 22.4 million people (2005) and nearly 26 million people (2009). The average growth rate of urban population nationwide was 3.4% per year. The average population increases in the period 1999‐2009 was over 8.5% per year in urban areas.

The Urbanization rate nationwide increased from 20.7% (1999) to 25% (2003), 26.97% (2005), 28% (2007), about 30% (2009) Urban network was reasonably distributed into six regions of country. The number of urban centers increased from 629 (1999) to 649 (2000), to 656 (2003), to 708 (2004), to 725 (2005), to 729 (2006), to 743 (2007), to 747 (2008) and to 754 (September 2009).

It is understandable that 125 additional urban centers increased after 10 years of construction and development and the average increase was 1 urban center per month.

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The role of urban centers in the socio-economic development

GDP growth rate increased continuously in the last 16 years (1990‐2006) reached 7.6% in 2007 and reached 8.5% in 2008, the slow growth rate is estimated at 5.5% ‐6% due to the global economic degradation while it reached 0% or negative growth rate in many developed countries.

Economic growth of urban centers was relatively stable at 12‐15% in average, it was estimated at 8‐10% in the years of 2007‐2009.

Urban centers took up a relatively high proportion reaching 54% of GDP of the whole country (when the urban population accounted for 23% (1998) and reached 70% of GDP of that (when the urban population occupied 27% (2005).

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Urban land-use In 1995 the total land use for urban construction was 63.000ha, 80 m2/person in average. By 2005, the total land use for urban construction increased nearly 6 times reaching 325,195ha and 390,914.12ha in 2007 taking up 1.18%. Increase outperformed in 2010 is expected to 147,914.12, land use targets for urban construction is 145m2/person in average higher than 1.8 times the projected targets for 2010.

Land scale for big projects, it is required to review the planning and development plan and to take measures to strictly manage new development projects in local areas. The urban population still needs increase in 20 to 30 years, so the expansion of the administrative boundaries of urban centers and new urban areas development will still occur even faster rate, so agricultural land will continue to decline. This is an existing problem due to the overuse of agricultural land for urbanization.

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上海上海

乌鲁木齐

乌鲁木齐

西安西安成

都成都

沈阳沈阳

北京北京

广州广州

武汉武汉昆

明昆明

GermanyGermany ChinaChina KoreaKorea

AreaArea 19751975 19951995 20152015

The WorldThe WorldLess developed Less developed

areasareas-- AfricaAfrica-- AsiaAsia

(not include Japan)(not include Japan)-- Latin America Latin America developed areadeveloped area-- North AmericaNorth America

-- JapanJapan

55330011

22221111

141410101155

44442222

2626222222

1616

44442222

In 2015, It is predicted that there would be 18 mega cities in Asia (with over 10 million people)

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Ha NoiPopulation forecast for 2030‐2050

Son Tay Urban180,000 people61.1 km2

Hoa Lac Urban600,000 people201.1 km2

Xuan Mai Urban220,000 people66.4 km2

Soc Son Urban250,000 people60.1 km2

ĐT. Phu Xuyên12,7 vạn người50,1 km2

Central urban4,600,000 people737.3 km2

1,7 mil. peopl

2,9 mil. people

1,2 mil. people2010 2020 2030 2050

Population 6.45mil. people

7.1-7.4mil. people

9.0 – 9.2mil. people

10.8mil. people

Urbanization rate 41% 64% 70% 80%

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1414 exhibition daysexhibition days

From 21From 21stst April 2010 April 2010 –– 44thth May 2010May 2010At Van Ho Exhibition Center At Van Ho Exhibition Center –– Hanoi CityHanoi City

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Scenarios of sea level rising

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Unorderly urban order...

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Traffic congestion and floods… are growing problems in urban areas

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Declining Quality of the Urban Environment

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On urban population growth

+ By 2015, urban population of the country shall be about 35 million people, ratio of urbanization shall reach 38%.

+ By 2025, urban population shall be about 52 million people, ratio of urbanization shall reach 50%.

+ By 2015, total urban centers of the country shall reach over 870

+ By 2025, total centers of the country shall be nearly 1000.

Tomorrow’s Prospect…

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Development Objective:(According to Decision of Prime Minister : 445/QD-TTg, dated April 7th 2009)

•Gradually develop Vietnam urban system toward urban network model;•Develop synchronic and modern technical and social infrastructure; create good urban living quality and environment; develop advanced urban architecture with national identity; • Have high position and competitiveness in socio-economic development at nationa, regional and international level,

Vietnam Urban Development Orientation and Strategy with Vision toward year 2050

Identify Strategic Vision for Urban system and Technical in frastructure

In the context of global economy, the National Urban System by to achieve the objective of integration and sustainable development. 2025 and 2050 will be developed toward industrialization – modernization strategies in post industrial period, focusing on service and tourism development

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National Vision with Network Region scenario 2050Vietnam Urban development strategy aims to achieve the Vision for the next 50 years. Therefore, it is necessary to identify development phases in appropriation with 10-year economic cycle and develop different scenarios for each phase.

There are 3 main scenarios:1.Urbanized Region Scenario2. Metropolitan Region Scenario3. Networking Region ScenarioIn addition, there is Localized Region Scenario which describes current model of development but it is not considered a development scenario.

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Scenario 1¥: Urbanized Region Scenario is illustrated as following:Scenario 1¥: Urbanized Region Scenario is illustrated as following:

Scenario 1: Urbanized Region Scenario

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Scenario 2: Metropolitan Region Scenario

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Scenario 3: Network Region Scenario achieve Long term Vision by 2050

when urbanization level reaches 70% ‐ equivalent to developed countries.

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Economic competitionAverage economy

Liveable and quality environment

Environment to be destroyed and reliable

“Region ”“Network ”

“Great urban region”“Scattered urban areas”

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From now on up to 2025:

Urbanized Region Scenario ‐1st priority (Scenario 1‐ KB1) and continue with Metropolitan Region Scenario ‐2nd Priority (Scenario 2‐ KB2) prepare Network Region Scenario‐3rd Priority (Scenario 3) limit Localized Region Scenario‐ (Scenario 4‐KB4). The phase from 2025 to 2050: Move to Scenario 3 – limit Scenario 2‐and Scenario 1

2007 2015 2025 2050

KB1

KB2

KB3

KB4

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Eco city is a new concept in Vietnam, imported into Vietnam around the 90s of 21st century at the same time with sustainable development

Sustainable city A sustainable city, or eco-city is a city designed with consideration of environmental impact, inhabited by people dedicated to minimization of required inputs of energy, water and food, and waste output of heat, air pollution - CO2, methane, and water pollution. (Wikipedia)

ECO PARK CITY near Hanoi city

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Sustainable city/Eco2 cityWhat we need for future urban systems?

Suitable approaches for:1. Regions >< Surrounding countries2. Mega/Big city vs Medium/Small city and Rural areas3. Environment/Conservation vs Development4. Infrastructure system VS Population5. Technology vs Tradition6. Way of life vs Basic need7. Climate change vs forecast

We need supports in - Eco2 in Research/Planning - Pilot projects for Medium city - Synchronized Mechanism

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Thanks for your attention

urban development strategy for vietnam cities system...

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