urban modelling 1 03/2003 © crown copyright urban scale nwp with the met office's unified...
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Urban Modelling 1 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Urban Scale NWP with the Met Office's Unified Model
Peter Clark
Mesoscale Modelling Group
Met Office
Joint Centre for Mesoscale Meteorology
University of Reading
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Urban Modelling 2 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Why Mesoscale Models? Mesoscale variation of boundary layer structure due to:
– Changes in surface characteristics.
» Urban/rural
» Land/sea
» Soil moisture/surface temperature
– Orography.
Mesoscale flows induced by above.– Land/sea breeze.
– Drainage flows.
Mesoscale structure in synoptic meteorology– Fronts
– Convective storms
AirQuality
WeatherForecasting
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Urban Modelling 3 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Why the Unified Model (UM)? Non-hydrostatic, fully compressible, deep atmosphere.
Suitable for use at very high spatial resolution. The UM surface exchange scheme treats urban areas and is being
improved.
Data assimilation is a powerful tool; makes UM data a major resource.
UM availability and improvements.– Available to and adopted by NERC community.
– Portable UM 5 released VERY soon.
– SLICE: A Semi-Lagrangian Inherently Conserving and Efficient scheme for transport problems
Operational Plans: – UK ~4 km 2005.
– 1 km ~2008-10 for v short range.
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Urban Modelling 4 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Example results from High Resolution Trial Model
Visibility (m)
12 km 4 km 1 km
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Urban Modelling 5 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Blending Height
Surface
UM Tile surface exchange Treats heterogeneous
surfaces using ‘blending height’ techniques.
Nine surface types, – Broad Leaf Trees – Needle Leaf Trees– C3 Grass– C4 Grass– Shrub– Urban– Water– Soil– Ice
Each tile has fixed characteristics.
4 layer soil temperature and moisture.
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Urban Modelling 6 03/2003 © Crown copyright
s Ts4g Tg
4
H E s Ts4
G
RN
Urban Tiles Each tile has a full
surface energy balance. This includes a radiatively
coupled ‘canopy’. In the urban case this has high thermal inertia to simulate wall effects.
Work in progress (Reading) to improve representaion, especially of radiative effects.
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Urban Modelling 7 03/2003 © Crown copyright
12 km
4 km
1 km
Model ConfigurationMet Office non-hydrostatic semi-implicit, semi-Lagrangian Unified Model, 38 levels on stretched height based terrain following grid.
One-way nested
–Global (~60km) 20 min timestep
–~12 km (146X182) 5 min timestep
–~4 km (300x300) 2 min timestep
–~1 km (300x300) 0.5 min timestep 12 km down to 1 km run from operational 3D VAR mesoscale analysis at 12Z 10th May 2001
Tiled land surface scheme using CEH 25 m Landsat based land-use including ‘urban’ fraction.
Model ignores man-made heat sources
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Urban Modelling 8 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Example 1 km domain
Orography Urban Fractionin Land UseGrass Fractionin Land Use
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Urban Modelling 9 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Formation of the night timeurban heat island
Light Wind
00Z 11/05/2001
Urban-No-Urban Near surface temperature difference
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Urban Modelling 10 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Urban fraction
Point 1: 1 %
Point 2: 97 %
Point 3: 50 %
Point 4: 1 %
Urban Fraction and contours of Urban Impact on 20 m Temperature
1
23
4
0.5
1.0
1.5
00Z 11/05/2001
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Urban Modelling 11 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Point 2
Point 3
Point 1
Point 4
Point 1: Upstream
Point 2: Central London
Point 3: Downstream Suburbs
Point 4: Downstream Rural
Evolution of vertical structure over London
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Urban Modelling 12 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Impact on vertical mixing.
Urban Area produces 200 mnear neutral boundary layer
Central London
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Urban Modelling 13 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Tracer release broadly reflecting smoothed emissions
Afternoon deep convection
brings down clean air
Night time stabilization
Blocking of flow by North Downs
Arbitrary Units
Predictable?
Unpredictable!
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Urban Modelling 14 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Regional tropospheric data assimilation of
tracers/chemistry? Ambitious, but shouldn’t we be?
3D VAR stratospheric chemistry, tropospheric 'aerosol' already a reality.
DA discipline forces objective analysis of model error, observation error and representativity/covariance.
4D VAR of tracers has potential to improve model transport as well as provide concentration fields.
Tracer assimilation straightforward using model dynamics. Conceivable using alternative dispersion if incorporated into UM.
DARC
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Urban Modelling 15 03/2003 © Crown copyright
Towards a Modelling Strategy Based on the Unified Model
Provision of higher resolution UM output to drive offline transport/dispersion (NAME + Others).
Use of UM in NERC community to validate/improve meteorology.
– Benefits of using operational analyses including sub-surface. Closer coupling of transport/chemistry with UM.
– Using UM transport OR alternative (NAME, parcel, Eulerian)– Consistent physics– Shorter updating interval for winds
Start thinking in a data assimilation framework– Model error covariances– Observation representativity defined with respect to model.
Eventual implementation of multiscale DA of quasi-conserved species.