urban redevelopment and transport infrastructure

Urban redevelopment and transport infrastructure Stanilov & Jin, March 2014

Urban redevelopment and transport infrastructure Stanilov and Jin The Mar7n Centre for Architectural and Urban Studies

Department of Architecture University of Cambridge


•  2.2 billion people will be added to the world popula7on between 2000 and 2030 •  2.1 billion will be urban dwellers

Growth of Manila, Philippines. Source: DLR-‐DFD


Three ways to accommodate urban growth


redevelopment suburbanisa7on new towns


Redevelopment becomes increasingly more important


redevelopment

most efficient use of exis.ng resources

•  Where does it take place? •  What are the dynamics? •  What are the key condi7ons? •  What is the role of infrastructure?

Ques.ons

•  Establish knowledgebase for smart ci7es •  Develop bePer land use models •  Develop standards for infrastructure provision •  Facilitate efficient use of resources

Policy implica.ons



redevelopment

most efficient use of exis.ng resources

-‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

ha

on redeveloped land on new land

West London land development 1880-‐2010

7% 8%

8% 13%

54%

76%

Redevelopment becomes increasingly more important


land development 1880-‐1900 Study area

pre-‐exis7ng development

redevelopment new development

railway sta7on


land development 1900-‐1920 pre-‐exis7ng development


railway sta7on




railway sta7on


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

EST REC AGR SDT PRK DET GEN NRS FRM TER COT LDG CHR IND SCH INS OLD DETH MEW RRS CEM UTL AIR APT CLR INSL GAR APTH STA

Old land uses replaced by redevelopment

•  Low intensity uses most prone to redevelopment in the early periods •  Medium-‐density residen7al targeted during the WW2 reconstruc7on •  Brownfield redevelopment in the post-‐industrial age

post-‐1980s brownfield development

post-‐war urban renewal

demise of the great estates

1920-‐1940

1880-‐1900 1900-‐1920

1990-‐2010

1940-‐1965 1965-‐1990


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

TER SDT APT APTH DET DETH GEN SCH INS IND O RET

1880-‐1900 1900-‐1920 1920-‐1940 1940-‐1965 1965*1990 1990-‐2010

•  Share of housing gradually decreasing -‐ from 3/4 to ½ of the converted land •  Share of industrial gradually increasing un7l 1960s, dropping down to half of that rate thereader •  Share of commercial drama7cally increasing ader 1960s due to expansion of office and retail

New land uses established by redevelopment


Distance from St Paul de

velopm

ent

rede

velopm

ent

1880-‐1900 1900-‐1920 1920-‐1940 1940-‐1965 1965-‐1990 1999-‐2010

•  Development clustered around the core

•  Secondary nodes forming

•  Redevelopment clustered even more 7ghtly around the core

•  Redevelopment present in secondary nodes as well

•  Dispersal away from the core •  Number of secondary nodes increasing

•  Clustering of redevelopment around the core is weakened but s7ll notable

•  Development rela7vely evenly dispersed

•  Redevelopment is rela7vely evenly dispersed


Distance from sta.ons de

velopm

ent

rede

velopm

ent

1880-‐1900 1900-‐1920 1920-‐1940 1940-‐1965 1965-‐1990 1999-‐2010

•  The majority of development is clustered around the sta7ons •  Since the interwar period this rela7onship has been loosening with 7me •  The post-‐WW2 decades showing the greatest dispersal

•  The overwhelming majority of redevelopment is clustered around the sta7ons

•  This rela7onship has remained rela7vely stable


Land development by distance to closest sta.on

!1880%1900!!!!!!!1900%1920!!!!!!!!1920%1940!!!!!!!!!1940%1965!!!!!!!1965%1990!!!!!!!!1990%2010!!

Land!development!and!rail!networks!

distan

ce!to

!closest!sta<o

n!In#m

etres#

median#

middle#50%#

95%#range#

5%#outliers#

development#on#new#(non8urbanised)#land#redevelopment#on#urbanised#land#

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

popu

la.o

n

numbe

r of sta.o

ns

popula7on sta7ons

1 km

Growth of popula.on and rail network


Distance from major roads de

velopm

ent

rede

velopm

ent

1880-‐1900 1900-‐1920 1920-‐1940 1940-‐1965 1965-‐1990 1990-‐2010

•  The clustering of development along the major roads is remarkably consistent over 7me •  During the interwar and post-‐WW2 decades this rela7onship is somewhat loosening •  Since the 1960s development is more strongly related to the loca7on of major roads again

•  The overwhelming majority of redevelopment has been clustered along major roads •  This rela7onship has been loosening with 7me


Rela.onship to intersec.on density using lagged density

developm

ent

rede

velopm

ent

1880-‐1900 1900-‐1920 1920-‐1940 1940-‐1965 1965-‐1990 1990-‐2010

•  Un7l the 1960s most development was located in areas with low intersec7on density (development on new/non-‐urbanised land in the outskirts)

•  Since the 1960s development has taken place in areas with rela7vely higher intersec7on density (reflec7ng the larger share of redevelopment)

•  The majority of redevelopment has taken place in areas with low to moderate intersec7on density

•  This rela7onship has been remarkably consistent over 7me


1 km

residen.al land development by distance from sta.ons

ha of land

high den

sity

flats

med

den

sity

semi and

terraced

1880-‐1900 1900-‐1920 1920-‐1940 1940-‐1965 1965-‐1990 1990-‐2010

low den

sity

detached

645 m 580 m 1,001 m 1,020 m 870 m 1,068 m

654 m 456 m 591 m 920 m 767 m 752 m

569 m 616 m 922 m 1,283 m 891 m 994 m

86% 95% 63% 59% 68% 28%

86% 99% 93% 68% 77% 74%

93% 90% 70% 44% 69% 58%

91% 90% 69% 51% 73% 63% 1 km 1 km DU 1 km 1 km 1 km


•  The share of redevelopment has been increasing systema7cally since the mid-‐20th century

•  Transport infrastructure has been a key factor in redevelopment •  The rela7onship between transport infrastructure and

redevelopment is systema7c and consistent •  Accessibility to rail networks is a dominant factor shaping urban

spa7al restructuring

Conclusions

The insights derived from this line of empirical research could serve to develop bePer land use models, standards for infrastructure provision, and facilitate a more efficient approach to the use of urban land resources.

urban redevelopment and transport infrastructure

Engineering