urban seismic risk assessment with a holistic approach … · urban seismic risk assessment with a...
TRANSCRIPT
URBAN SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT WITH A HOLISTIC APPROACH FOR THE NATIONAL DISTRICT IN SANTO DOMINGO, DOMINICAN REPUBLICMartha Liliana CARREÑO1 , Omar D. CARDONA2 , Mario A. SALGADO‐GÁLVEZ1 ,
Cesar A. VELÁSQUEZ1, Alex H. BARBAT11 Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña, Barcelona, Spain
2 Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, Ingeniar Ltda., Colombiacontact: [email protected]
FPhR1 Expected Annual Economic Loss wPhR1
FPhR2 Expected Annual Deaths wPhR2
FPhR3 Expected Annual Injuries wPhR3
FPhR4 Expected Unemployed wPhR4
FPhR5 Expected Homeless wPhR5
SANTO DOMINGO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Moncho’s equation
FRUSRiR PhT 1
PHYSICAL RISK
SOCIAL
FRAGILITY
LACK OF
RESILIENCE
FSF1 Mortality rate wSF1
FSF2 Population density wSF2
FSF3 Population with fair or poor health wSF3
FSF4 Slums‐squatter neighbourhoods wSF4
FSF5 Social disparity wSF5
FLR1 Hospital beds wLR1
FLR2 Health human resource wLR2
FLR3 Available public space wLR3
FLR4 Development level wLR4
FLR5 Operating capacity in case of emergency
wLR5
PHYSICAL RISK IN
DEX
, RPh
AGGRAVATING COEFFICIENT, F
TOTA
L RISK IN
DEX
, RT
INVOLVED VARIABLES AND EVALUATION PROCESS
5
1
wi
ii RPh RPhPh FR
5
1
5
1
wwj
jji
ii LR LR SF SF FFF
F
RT
UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015‐2030
Geneva, Switzerland, 27 ‐ 29 January 2016
A fully probabilistic risk assessment was conducted using a buildingby building resolution level for the National District, Santo Domingoin the Dominican Republic. A national probabilistic seismic hazardassessment was developed to generate a set of stochastic events.Different building classes were identified and vulnerability functionsassigned to them for the damage and loss quantification. Directphysical losses were quantified and grouped by neighborhoodsbased on official cadastral data. From those results, physicaldamages and casualties were obtained to calculate the physical risk.Risk was also evaluated from a holistic perspective taking intoaccount the expected physical damage but also social fragility andlack of resilience conditions, which can increase the second ordereffects. Together with the physical damage, this evaluationconsiders social and organizational issues as well as institutionalaspects related to the community development. Descriptors areused in order to capture aggravating conditions of the directphysical impact, as well as second order and, sometimes, intangibleimpacts of earthquakes that combined with the physical impact,allows estimating the urban seismic risk index. These results areuseful in the socialization of risk levels in order to communicate it tothe stakeholders besides identifying its causes. The obtained resultscan be used for decision‐making processes through theidentification of zones that may be potentially problematic after theoccurrence of an earthquake. Besides helping to understanddisaster risk, this study also strengthens the disaster risk governanceand management, two of the priorities of the Sendai Framework forDisaster Risk Reduction.
ABSTRACT
From a holistic perspective, risk is a function ofthe potential physical damage and a set ofvulnerability factors i that correspond to thevulnerability conditions of the context underanalysis. The physical vulnerability is obtainedfrom the susceptibility of the exposed elementsto hazards. The vulnerability of the contextdepends on the social fragilities and issuesrelated to lack of resilience of the disasterprone socio‐technical system. To reduce risk, itis necessary to intervene through correctiveand prospective actions the vulnerabilityfactors. Disaster risk management requires aninstitutional structure and public policies andactions to implement the changes needed onthe exposed elements to reduce risk.
Three indexes are calculated:Physical risk index RPh, is based on theconvolution of hazards and the physicalsusceptibility of the exposed elements, and inthis study has been assessed by using theCAPRA platform.Aggravating coefficient, F, is obtained fromother fragility and resilience factors ofvulnerability, based on indicators related to thesocial context and capacities.Urban Seismic Risk Index, USRi, is the total riskRT , obtained from the physical risk aggravatedby an impact factor in each unit of analysis.
Holistic evaluation post‐processing tool
RESULTS
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY
PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT
INGENIAR
Replacement value (USD) Average annual loss (USD)(Earthquake)