us chlor-alkali and vinyls market outlook 2019 · us chlor-alkali and vinyls market outlook vinyls...
TRANSCRIPT
By Bill Bowen
US CHLOR-ALKALI
AND VINYLS MARKET OUTLOOK 2019
Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
BY BILL BOWEN FEBRUARY 2019
US CHLOR-ALKALI AND VINYLS MARKET OUTLOOKVINYLS AND CAUSTIC SODA TRENDS STRENGTHEN ECU MARGINS
2018 REVERSES THE 2017 TREND Prices for caustic return to levels reflective of a more balanced market
PVC prices soften during the year on trade disruptions but volumes remain firm
PVC prices trade in a narrower range
Caustic soda supply runs long on Alunorte outage (loss of contracted volumes)
Caustic soda negotiates longer supply in a tighter global market shifting trade flows
EDC firms on global tightening of supply on rising PVC demand
US 2018 PVC SPOT EXPORT PRICES
US LIQUID CAUSTIC SODA SPOT EXPORT PRICE
2019 STARTS WITH UNCERTAINTY FOR VINYLS AND CAUSTIC SODA PVC starts 2019 with increased domestic demand less export volume tariff upsets
US CAUSTIC SODA PRODUCTION SHARE
US-CANADA ANNUAL PVC EXPORTS
A LOOK AHEAD AT 2019 PRICE DRIVERS Continued domestic demand growth for PVC as estimated $300bn repair and rebuild efforts to address wildfires wind damage is added to organic construction growth
Overall organic construction growth expected to remain flat in 2019 with that of 2018
US PVC producers will continue to produce at or above 90-95 of capacity
Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
Caustic soda production will increase alongside that of chlorine for PVC likely sending CS supply longer will be offset by Alunortersquos return to full production which remains at 50 of its historical consumption of US caustic (if and when it returns)
Caustic spot export availability likely to rise as US caustic suppliers lose significant contract volumes to Australia alumina industry a channel that consumed much of US caustic spot availability in 2018
UNKNOWN MARKET HAZARDS IN 2019 Oil prices Higher oil prices make US PVC caustic soda and EDC more competitive
Tariffs and trade wars The fog of war invites the unexpected
The outcome of the loss of contracted caustic soda
volume to Australian alumina industry Simply a shuffling of trade flows Al Taweelah alumina refinery in UAE
What will China do Half of the global market and production in that market means changes there affect global markets significantly
US CAUSTIC ANNUAL PRODUCTION
US PVC PRICE REPORT
ICIS price reports provide independent objective and trusted intelligence for over 180 chemical commodities across America Europe and Asia
USE ICIS INFORMATION TO
n Follow fluctuations and understand factors driving them
n Input into your own internal analytical models
n Clarify settlements and contracts
n Inform negotiations
Find out more about ICIS price reports
Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
BY BILL BOWEN FEBRUARY 2019
US CHLOR-ALKALI AND VINYLS MARKET OUTLOOKVINYLS AND CAUSTIC SODA TRENDS STRENGTHEN ECU MARGINS
2018 REVERSES THE 2017 TREND Prices for caustic return to levels reflective of a more balanced market
PVC prices soften during the year on trade disruptions but volumes remain firm
PVC prices trade in a narrower range
Caustic soda supply runs long on Alunorte outage (loss of contracted volumes)
Caustic soda negotiates longer supply in a tighter global market shifting trade flows
EDC firms on global tightening of supply on rising PVC demand
US 2018 PVC SPOT EXPORT PRICES
US LIQUID CAUSTIC SODA SPOT EXPORT PRICE
2019 STARTS WITH UNCERTAINTY FOR VINYLS AND CAUSTIC SODA PVC starts 2019 with increased domestic demand less export volume tariff upsets
US CAUSTIC SODA PRODUCTION SHARE
US-CANADA ANNUAL PVC EXPORTS
A LOOK AHEAD AT 2019 PRICE DRIVERS Continued domestic demand growth for PVC as estimated $300bn repair and rebuild efforts to address wildfires wind damage is added to organic construction growth
Overall organic construction growth expected to remain flat in 2019 with that of 2018
US PVC producers will continue to produce at or above 90-95 of capacity
Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
Caustic soda production will increase alongside that of chlorine for PVC likely sending CS supply longer will be offset by Alunortersquos return to full production which remains at 50 of its historical consumption of US caustic (if and when it returns)
Caustic spot export availability likely to rise as US caustic suppliers lose significant contract volumes to Australia alumina industry a channel that consumed much of US caustic spot availability in 2018
UNKNOWN MARKET HAZARDS IN 2019 Oil prices Higher oil prices make US PVC caustic soda and EDC more competitive
Tariffs and trade wars The fog of war invites the unexpected
The outcome of the loss of contracted caustic soda
volume to Australian alumina industry Simply a shuffling of trade flows Al Taweelah alumina refinery in UAE
What will China do Half of the global market and production in that market means changes there affect global markets significantly
US CAUSTIC ANNUAL PRODUCTION
US PVC PRICE REPORT
ICIS price reports provide independent objective and trusted intelligence for over 180 chemical commodities across America Europe and Asia
USE ICIS INFORMATION TO
n Follow fluctuations and understand factors driving them
n Input into your own internal analytical models
n Clarify settlements and contracts
n Inform negotiations
Find out more about ICIS price reports
Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
Caustic soda production will increase alongside that of chlorine for PVC likely sending CS supply longer will be offset by Alunortersquos return to full production which remains at 50 of its historical consumption of US caustic (if and when it returns)
Caustic spot export availability likely to rise as US caustic suppliers lose significant contract volumes to Australia alumina industry a channel that consumed much of US caustic spot availability in 2018
UNKNOWN MARKET HAZARDS IN 2019 Oil prices Higher oil prices make US PVC caustic soda and EDC more competitive
Tariffs and trade wars The fog of war invites the unexpected
The outcome of the loss of contracted caustic soda
volume to Australian alumina industry Simply a shuffling of trade flows Al Taweelah alumina refinery in UAE
What will China do Half of the global market and production in that market means changes there affect global markets significantly
US CAUSTIC ANNUAL PRODUCTION
US PVC PRICE REPORT
ICIS price reports provide independent objective and trusted intelligence for over 180 chemical commodities across America Europe and Asia
USE ICIS INFORMATION TO
n Follow fluctuations and understand factors driving them
n Input into your own internal analytical models
n Clarify settlements and contracts
n Inform negotiations
Find out more about ICIS price reports