USClimatePolicy&GlobalImplicationsMichaelDavidsonMITJointProgramClimateChangeLectureSeriesIAP2017

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GoalsandOutlineGoals•  AnhistoricalperspectiveonUSclimatepolicyunderdifferentadministrations

•  Understandingofinterplaybetweendomesticandinternationalpolicydevelopments

Outline•  EarlyUNFCCCandKyotoProtocol(BushI,Clinton)•  Kyoto’sSuccessorandDomesticInstitutions(BushII)•  Copenhagen,US-China,andClimateActionPlan(Obama)•  ParisandUSinternationaltargets•  Prospectsfor2020,2025andbeyond

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EarlyUNFCCC(BushI)•  1990CleanAirActamendmentstacklesseveralnewenvironmentalissuesincludingacidrain

•  USsignsontoUNclimateconvention(UNFCCC)andseveralotherenvironmentaltreatiesinRio(1992)

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“TheUnitedStatesfullyintendstobetheworld'spreeminentleaderinprotectingtheglobalenvironment.”

–GeorgeH.W.Bush,1992

KyotoProtocol(Clinton)•  ClintondeparturefromBush:•  Agreedtobindingcommitmentstoreduceemissions(overdisagreementsamongagencies)

•  “BTUtax”~maincarbonpolicy•  …anddespitewarningsignsthatitwouldn’tworkpolitically•  BTUtaxdefeatedearlyon

•  1993ClimateChangeActionPlan•  2000emissionsreturnto1990levels

•  KyotoProtocolnegotiationsconcludedin1997,commitmentsstrictlytodevelopedcountries(Annex1)only

•  Byrd-HagelSenateresolution(1997):treatymustrequiredevelopingcountryaction,andnoseriousharmtoUSeconomy

4Downie,Christian(2014).ThePoliticsofClimateChangeNegotiations.

DomesticInstitutions(BushII)Internationally:•  FormallyrejectKyotoProtocolDomestically:•  ClimateChangePlan(2002)•  Energyintensity18%êby2012

•  EnergyPolicyAct(2005)•  Complexbill…fossilfuels,energyefficiency,andtaxcreditsforrenewableenergies

•  Massachusettsv.EPA(2007)•  GHGsconsideredasairpollutantandEPAmustreviewpreviousdecisionnottoregulate

•  PledgetostopGHGemissionsgrowthby2025(announced2008)

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Kyoto’sSuccessoratBali•  SoonafterKyotocameintoeffect(2005),recognitionofneedfornewtreaty

•  USismajorfocusofinternationalcriticismduringBaliclimatetalks(2007)

•  BaliRoadmapeventuallyagreed:2-yearplantonewtreaty(toconcludein2009),w/orequirementsofcommitments

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“Butifforsomereasonyouarenotwillingtolead,leaveittotherestofus.Pleasegetoutoftheway.”

-PapuaNewGuineadelegate

US-China(Obama)

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•  ObamaandHumeetingpriortoCopenhagen(2009)•  PrecedenceforcooperationfromBushII•  But,2009climatechangejointcommitmentsweredeparturesforbothcountries

•  ObamaandXimeetings•  Annualannouncementsofinitiatives•  2014climatechangecommitmentsforParis

USClimateActionPlan(2013)•  Waxman-Markeycap-and-tradebillfailed(2010)

•  CAPapproach:focusonsectorbysector,mostlyregulatory(i.e.,withoutnewlaws)•  fueleconomystandardsforvehicles•  biofuelsmandate•  buildingcodesandotherenergyefficiencyprograms•  taxcredits,loanguarantees,andR&Dsubsidiesforrenewableenergy,nuclear

•  “Supergreenhousegases”—HFCs•  CleanPowerPlan:rulestargetingcoal-firedpowerplants

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Paris(2015)•  USpresenceandotherkeyactors(China,EU,France)•  CulminationofnegotiatingrounddrivenbyUSobjectivesoffullparticipationanddevelopingcountrypledges

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Interlude:Last-minutetextchangeandUSdomesticlaw•  AsclosingplenaryabouttostartonfinalSaturday,delayasUSteamnotedsomechangedwording:•  “DevelopedcountryPartiesshallcontinuetakingtheleadbyundertakingeconomy-wideabsoluteemissionreductiontargets…”

•  LegalinterpretationtoavoidnewSenateratification:•  Alllegally-bindinglanguageinParismustalreadybeincludedintheUNFCCCtreaty(e.g.,reportingrequirements).Anythingadditionalmustbevoluntary(e.g.,“should”)

Marrakech(2016)•  USelectioninfirstweek:manycountries“waitandsee”•  HeadofUSdelegationsays“farewell”tostandingovationofgatheredNGOs

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IG@mitenergy

USInternationalClimateTargetsWillUSbeabletomeetitsinternationalclimatecommitments?Whatfollowsispurespeculation……andrepresentssolelymyviewsandinterpretation

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Prospectsfor2020Target2020(Copenhagen):ê17%relativeto2005levels•  Overall,manypiecesalreadyinplace•  Manyregulatorymeasuresalreadyinforceforawhile(vehicle,applianceefficiency)

•  Gasoutlookstronginshort-term(EIA)•  36GWnewcapacityinnexttwoyears•  Futures/forecastpricesrelativelystable

•  Federalrenewableenergysubsidiesextendedin2015•  Windproductiontaxcredit(atdecliningrate)through2020•  Solarinvestmenttaxcreditthrough2019,decliningthereafter

12EnergyInformationAdministration(2017).Short-TermEnergyOutlook

Prospectsfor2020Target

13WorldResourcesInstitute(2014).TheU.S.GreenhouseGasEmissionsReductionsTargets.

Sidenoteondifferencebetweenregulationandlegislation•  Regulation=authoritygivenbyCongressionallegislationtofederalagenciestomakerulesandpolicy•  Requirementsforrule-makingprocesses,whichcan>1year•  Eg,EPAuseswideauthorityunderCleanAirAct(asinterpretedbycourts)tocreateCleanPowerPlan

•  “Rule-unmaking”sameprocessasrule-making(withexceptionforCongressionalReviewAct)

•  Legislation=Congressionalactstosetandachievegoals•  Mayspecifypoliciestoachievethem•  Eg,Waxman-Markeysetscapandotherdetailsofcap-and-trade•  Repealinglegislationcanbedoneimmediately

Wanttolearnmore?IDS.430(Fall)EnvironmentalLaw,Policy,andEconomics.Ashford,Caldart. 14

Prospectsfor2025andBeyond2025(Paris):ê26-28%relativeto2005levels•  Outcomeslessclearwithoutnewaction•  Morerecentregulatorymeasurescanbechanged•  CongressionalReviewAct(CRA,1996):rarelyused,canoverturnagencyrulesmaderecently,withoutformalrule-makingprocess

àCouldtargetmethanerulesforoilandgas•  NegotiatedresolutionofremainingCPPaftercourtreview

•  Anewrenaissanceforcoal?

•  UnderParisAgreement,USshouldsubmit2030pledgeby2020

15CongressionalResearchService(December15,2016).CRSInsight.

ClimatePolicyunderRepublicanAdministrations

•  Breathe•  Somewin-winitems•  Energysecurity•  Renewableenergyinredstates•  Naturalgas(atleastfornow)

•  Courts•  Statesandcities•  E.g.,Massachusettscurrentlydebatingtwocarbonpricingbills(HD1504,SD1021)

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THANKYOU!

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