u.s. construction & cement outlook: 2006 nirmma february 6, 2006 delray beach, florida edward j....
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Construction & Cement Outlook: 2006
NIRMMA
February 6, 2006
Delray Beach, Florida
Edward J. Sullivan
Staff Vice President and PCA Chief Economist
Anatomy of Growth:Illinois
2001 Total
4.162 MMT
Residential
.829 MMT : (20%)
Nonresidential
.649 MMT: 16%)
Public
2.666 MMT: (64%)
2005 Total
4.163 MMT (0.0%,2005)
Residential
1.127 MMT : (27%)
Nonresidential
.588 MMT: (14%)
Public
2.421 MMT: (58%)
2009 Total
4.621 MMT
Residential
.963 MMT : (21%)
Nonresidential
0.795 MMT: (17%)
Public
2.863 MMT: (62%)
0.001 MMT
0.298 MMT
-.061 MMT
-.245 MMT
0.457 MMT
-0.164 MMT
.207 MMT
.441 MMT
Key Points of Analysis
U.S. Economic Outlook
Construction Outlook
Cement Outlook
Residential
Nonresidential
Public
Demand
Operating Conditions
Demographic Outlook
Economic Outlook: 2007-2009
Real GSP Growth:Illinois
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Annual Percent Change
U.S.
U.S. & Regional Demographic Outlook
US Population
Thousands of Persons
200000
220000
240000
260000
280000
300000
320000
340000
360000
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
US Population Adds Roughly 40 million People by 2020 …and 8 million by 2007
Demographics & Connection to Construction Activity: 2005-2009
Population Adds 14 Million PersonsPopulation Adds 14 Million Persons
Adds 420,000 School Age PersonsAdds 420,000 School Age Persons Education ConstructionEducation Construction
Adds 3.2 Million Retirement Age PersonsAdds 3.2 Million Retirement Age Persons MedicalMedical
Adds 4.7 Million HouseholdsAdds 4.7 Million Households Housing, Retail & Infrastructure.Housing, Retail & Infrastructure.
Population Growth Rate: Illinois
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Annual Growth Rate
United States
Net Migration Growth: Illinois
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
(000) Persons
Demographics 2005-2009: Illinois
Population Adds 270,000 PersonsPopulation Adds 270,000 Persons
Addition of 13,000 School Age PersonsAddition of 13,000 School Age Persons Education ConstructionEducation Construction
Adds 64,000 Retirement Age PersonsAdds 64,000 Retirement Age Persons MedicalMedical
Adds 141,000 HouseholdsAdds 141,000 Households Housing, Retail & Infrastructure.Housing, Retail & Infrastructure.
Population Share of Total US: Illinois
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Share of Total United States, %
Cement Per Capita: Illinois
0.368
.319
0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400
Illinois
United States
Cement Tons Per Thousand Persons, Based on 2000-2004 Average
Demographics Only: Illinois
200
5,200
10,200
15,200
20,200
25,200
30,200
35,200
1995 1999 2003 2007
Tons Added Annually Due to Expanding Population
Total Population Change X Constant Five Year Average Cement Per Capita
Construction & Cement OutlookOverview
Single Family Construction: Illinois Permits
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
# of units
Multi-Family Construction: Illinois Permits
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
# of units
Home Appreciation: Illinois
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
1995
Q1
1996
Q1
1997
Q1
1998
Q1
1999
Q1
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
Annual Percent Change
Ratio of Home Prices to Income:Illinois
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Annual Growth Rate Comparison
20 Year U.S. Average
Residential Cement Consumption:Illinois
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Metric Tons
Nonresidential Cement Consumption:Illinois
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Metric Tons
Public Cement Consumption: Illinois
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Metric Tons
Cement Outlook: Illinois
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Metric Tons