U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Southeastern Natural Southeastern Natural Resources Leadership GroupResources Leadership Group

Regional Climate Change MeetingRegional Climate Change Meeting

Charleston, South CarolinaCharleston, South CarolinaMay 27 – 29, 2008May 27 – 29, 2008

What role can USGS play?

Knowledge acquisition – research and monitoringMitigation - policiesAdaptation - actions

“Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks.”

Research

Monitoring

WaterWatch Map of real-time streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year

Drought WatchMap of below normal 7-day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year

Monitoring

Phenology http://www.usanpn.org/ NBII http://www.nbii.gov/portal/server.pt Invasive species http://nas.er.usgs.gov/ NWIS http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis

WaterWatch http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/ DroughtWatch http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/?

m=pa07d_dry&r=us&w=real%2Cmap

Climate Effects Network - future

Dauphin Island, Alabama

August 31, 2005

September 17, 2004

July 17, 2001

Hurricane Ivan

Hurricane Katrina

Salinities circa 1900Salinities circa 1900

Northern Transition Zoneand Central Florida Bay – euryhaline

Northern Transition Zoneand Central Florida Bay – euryhaline

Central Biscayne Bay– polyhaline and euhaline

Central Biscayne Bay– polyhaline and euhaline

Card Bank – euryhalineand polyhaline

Card Bank – euryhalineand polyhaline

Central Biscayne Bay– euryhaline, polyhaline,and euhaline

Central Biscayne Bay– euryhaline, polyhaline,and euhaline

Whitewater Bay – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline

Whitewater Bay – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline

Northern Transition Zone – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline

Northern Transition Zone – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline

Last 100 years in Florida Bay – loss of typical estuarine zonation and a loss of biodiversityLast 100 years in Biscayne Bay – a shift of zones into the estuary as environments become increasingly marine

Central Florida Bay and Card Bank – euryhaline andpolyhaline

Central Florida Bay and Card Bank – euryhaline andpolyhaline

Modern salinitiesModern salinities

Setting Attainable Restoration Setting Attainable Restoration Performance Measures: Accounting Performance Measures: Accounting for Global Change in Sea-Level for Global Change in Sea-Level RiseRise

Salinity (ppt)

Cal

enda

r Y

ears

AD

Freshwater Marine

Orange line represents Orange line represents hypothetical salinity data hypothetical salinity data derived from analyses of derived from analyses of sediment coressediment cores

From 1000 AD to From 1000 AD to approximately 1900 AD approximately 1900 AD data show gradual data show gradual increase in salinity that increase in salinity that might occur during sea might occur during sea level riselevel rise

Salinity (ppt)

Cal

enda

r Y

ears

AD

Freshwater Marine

Blue line highlights the Blue line highlights the trend in increasing salinity trend in increasing salinity due to rising sea leveldue to rising sea level

Gray area represents the Gray area represents the offset from the natural offset from the natural trend – can assume this trend – can assume this is probably an is probably an anthropogenic effectanthropogenic effect

Naturaltrendline offset Setting Attainable Restoration Setting Attainable Restoration

Performance Measures: Accounting Performance Measures: Accounting for Global Change in Sea-Level Risefor Global Change in Sea-Level Rise

Setting Attainable Restoration Setting Attainable Restoration Performance MeasuresPerformance Measures

Salinity (ppt)

Cal

enda

r Y

ears

AD

Freshwater Marine

Naturaltrendline

offset

Performance measures that set targets at pre-1900 salinities may not be attainable because sea level rise and other factors would make it difficult to return to this salinity range

Performance measures that set targets at pre-1900 salinities may not be attainable because sea level rise and other factors would make it difficult to return to this salinity range

Performance measures that set targets at an intersect point along the trend line of natural salinity increase will be realistic and attainable

Performance measures that set targets at an intersect point along the trend line of natural salinity increase will be realistic and attainable

Restoration

Paleoecology

Collect sediment cores from array ofsubenvironments throughout the greater Everglades ecosystem:

Tree islandsSawgrass ridgesSloughsSawgrass marshesCattail marshesMarl prairiesMangroves

Conduct pollen analyses, establish age models, and timing and patternsof vegetational change.

Willard et al. (2001)

Vegetation Trends During Last 2,000 Years,Dwarf Mangrove Stand, Site MC1 Near Florida Bay

Holocene Climate and Environmental History

Stream Impoundment Water Withdrawal

Aquatic Biota

Channel Condition,

Connectivity

Historic land use, channel modification

Water quality: temperature, DO,

contaminants

Runoff/Wastewater discharge

Population processes:Persistence ReproductionColonization

Land Cover Dynamics

Base flowsLarge floodsHigh-flow

pulsesSmall floods

Extreme lowflows

Approach: Relate hydrologic alteration to population processes, in context of geomorphology, land cover, climate change…climate change