u.s. economic and institutional apartment market overview ... · retail sales excl. auto & gas...
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Economic and Institutional ApartmentMarket Overview and Outlook
Special Client WebcastOctober 13, 2011
A boutique brokerage platform dedicated to serving the needs of institutional and major
private multifamily investors.
MISSION STATEMENT “At Institutional Property Advisors, our mission is to help
institutional and major private investors maximize returns and achieve their broader objectives through market analysis, acquisition, management and sale of multifamily assets.”
INSTITUTIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORS
Will BalthropeTexas
John C. BrownAtlanta
Gregory S. HarrisSouthern California
Ronald Z. HarrisSouthern California
Still Hunter, IIISouth Florida
Stanford W. JonesNorthern California
Peter K. KatzPhoenix
Evan P. KristolSouth Florida
Jamie B. MayCentral &
Southwestern Florida
Victor W. NollettiNortheast/
Mid Atlantic
Philip SaglimbeniNorthern California
Salvatore SaglimbeniNorthern California
Steward I. WestonSouthern California
Steve B. WittenNortheast/
Mid Atlantic
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW and OUTLOOK
Retail Sales excl. auto & gas 5% above pre-recession peak
The Private Sector added 1.78 million jobs in the past 12 months
Worker Productivity up 8% from pre- recession levels
Corporate Profits 17% above previous peak from 3Q06
Exports expand 7.3% annually, make up 13% of GDP compared to 2% contributed by residential investment
Oil prices down near $80 per barrel range
U.S. GDP higher than 2006 levels
10-Year Treasury at 2.08%
Core Inflation at 1.95% compared to 2.4% in 2007
2011 Economic Tug-of-WarPositives Headwinds
Debt Ceiling Contention and credit downgrade lowers global confidence as Public Debt reaches 96% of GDP
Market Volatility Index (VIX) up 40% since August 1 to 33.0
Unemployment Rate at 9.1% compared to 5% in 2007
Underemployment Rate at 16.5%
Consumer Confidence is now 60% below pre-recession peak
Single-Family Home Sales 29% below the 2005 peak
Single-family Home Prices down 29% from the 2005 peak
Eurozone Crisis/Uncertainty persist (geopolitical, commodity prices)
As of October 10, 2011Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS, BEA, ISM, U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Retail Sales Have Recovered From Dramatic Drop – Further Growth Hindered
* Through AugustSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau
Y-o-
Y C
hang
e
$180
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280
01 03 05 07 09 11*
Ret
ail S
ales
(Bil.
)
Long-Term Total Retail Sales Monthly Retail Sales Excl. Auto and Gas
Rec
essi
ons
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11*
+5%
Capital Spending by Corporate America Key to Sustainable Recovery – Profit Trend Positive Indicator
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
2000
Q220
01Q2
2002
Q220
03Q2
2004
Q220
05Q2
2006
Q220
07Q2
2008
Q220
09Q2
2010
Q220
11Q2
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
Corporate ProfitsFixed Investment in Equipment and Software
YOY
Cha
nge
in In
vest
men
t
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BEA
Corporate Profits (B
illions)
U.S. Employment Gains Have been Broad YOY Sector Change Through September 2011
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
U.S. Employment Sectors Absolute Change % Change
Prof. & Business Services 561,000 3.4%Education & Health Services 450,000 2.3%Trade, Transport & Utilities 325,000 1.3%Manufacturing 196,000 1.7%Leisure & Hospitality 120,000 0.9%Natural Resources & Mining 80,000 11.0%Other Services 64,000 1.2%Construction 37,000 0.7%
Total Gain 1,833,000 Financial Activities (13,000) -0.2%Information (41,000) -1.5%Government (289,000) -1.3%
Total Loss (343,000)
-900
-450
0
450
900
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Non-Farm Employment
Reduced Reliance on Temporary Staff A Positive Trend, but Weak Hiring Momentum a Major Concern
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
*-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
Temporary EmploymentNon-farm Employment
Tem
pora
ry E
mpl
oym
ent (
Y-o-
Y C
hang
e)
* Through SeptemberSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
Non-farm
Employm
ent (Y-o-Y Change)
Temporary Non-Farm2008-2009: -652,800 -8.7M2010: +310,300 +900,000Ann.2011*: +106,930 +1.4M
Net
Job
Cha
nge
(000
’s)
2011 YOY Employment Ranking by Metro Absolute Change
Top 15 Markets
YOY*Abs Chg
YOY*% Chg
Houston 69,700 2.7%
Dallas-Ft. Worth 49,500 1.7%
New York 42,800 1.2%
Boston 37,873 1.6%
Seattle-Tacoma 31,700 1.9%
Phoenix 29,500 1.8%
San Jose 28,300 3.3%
Detroit 26,400 1.5%
Minneapolis 24,200 1.4%
Milwaukee 19,300 2.4%
San Diego 15,600 1.3%
New Jersey 15,300 0.4%
San Antonio 15,100 1.8%
St. Louis 14,600 1.1%
Miami 14,600 1.5%
U.S. Total 1,259,000 1.0%
Bottom 15 Markets
YOY*Abs Chg
YOY*% Chg
Jacksonville 4,200 0.7%
Charlotte 4,100 0.5%
Los Angeles 3,900 0.1%
Sacramento 3,600 0.4%
Oakland-East Bay 2,100 0.2%
Fort Lauderdale 2,000 0.3%
New Haven-FC 741 0.1%
Las Vegas -300 0.0%
Denver -2,800 -0.2%
Washington, D.C. -4,400 -0.1%
Columbus -5,600 -0.6%
Inland Empire -9,200 -0.8%
Indianapolis -10,300 -1.2%
Philadelphia -15,200 -0.6%
Atlanta -32,700 -1.4%
U.S. Total 1,259,000 1.0%
* Through August 2011Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
20-34 Year Olds Share of Job Losses/Gains
* Through SeptemberSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
All Other Age Groups
63%
20-34 Yr Olds37%
All Other Age Groups
32%
20-34 Yr Olds68%
2008-2009 Share of Job Losses 2010-2011* Share of Job Gains
-5.2 Million
1.4 Million-3.1 Million
0.7 Million
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*
Single-Family Condo
* Through AugustSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, National Association of Realtors
Y-O-Y Change
-5%-3%
Med
ian
Pric
e (0
00s)
Single-Family Housing and Condo Market Yet to Enter Sustainable Recovery
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*
Single-Family Condo
+8%
+20%
Y-O-Y Change
Year
-Ove
r-Ye
ar C
hang
e
Median Home Prices Existing Home Sales
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
and
Cor
e C
PI
* Unemployment rate through September, CPI and capacity utilization through AugustSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, BLS, Federal Reserve Board
Capacity U
tilizationLimited Pricing Power, Weak Housing, Stagnant Wages: Keeping Short-Term Inflation at Bay, Giving the Fed Time
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11*65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
Unemployment Rate Core CPI Capacity Utilization
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
Curren
t*
1981
-1982
1973
-1975
2001
1990
-1991
Recession Job Losses Recovery Year 1Recovery Year 2Recovery Year 3
Employment Growth to Gain Momentum in 2011 and 2012 – Even If Just Catching up to Long-Term Average
* Next year = 2010 job growth, Following 2 years = 2011-2012 job growthEmployment growth based on employment for the 12 months after the contraction periodSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
Cha
nge
Historical Avg. Emp. Growth
1.7M0.9M
2.5M
APARTMENT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
OVERVIEW and OUTLOOK
U.S. Apartment Vacancy by Region 3Q 2011 Rate and YOY Change
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis
West 4.9%
-150 Bps
Midwest 5.4%
-160 Bps
Southwest 7.1%
-260 Bps
South Atlantic
6.2% -220 Bps
Northeast 4.1%
-90 Bps
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
-100
-50
0
50
100Job Growth Net Absorption
Indu
stri
al S
tart
s (in
mill
ions
)Quarterly Job Growth
vs. Apartment Units AbsorbedJo
b G
row
th (M
illio
ns)
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis, BLS
Units A
bsorbed (000s)
U.S. Apartment Absorption by Class
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*
Class A Class B/C
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts (0
00s)
* Trailing 12-month period through 3QSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis
Apartment Market Improvement Expected to Continue; Recovery Pace Moderating
0
50
100
150
200
250
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*
11**
12**
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%Completions Class A Vacancy Class B/C Vacancy
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts (0
00s)
Average Vacancy R
ate
* Vacancy as of 3Q11, Completions 3Q YTD annualized;** ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11* 12*
Class A Class B/C
Y-o-
Y C
hang
e
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis
Apartment Effective Rent Trends
* Through 3Q 2011 annualized; 2012 Forecast
National Apartment Rank by Metro Class A Vacancy Rate
Top 15 Metros Vacancy
YOY Bps.Chg.
New Haven-FC 2.0% 20
New York 2.8% -30
Minneapolis 3.3% -240
San Jose 3.3% -120
Louisville 3.8% -140
Milwaukee 3.8% -210
Portland 3.9% -220
New Jersey 4.3% -90
Oakland-East Bay 4.4% -70
Cleveland 4.6% -170
San Francisco 4.6% -130
Columbus 4.7% -170
Sacramento 4.7% -170
Dallas-Ft. Worth 4.8% -320
San Diego 4.9% -150
U.S. Average 5.6% -220
Bottom 15 Metros Vacancy
YOY Bps.Chg.
Austin 5.9% -380
Indianapolis 5.9% -280
Charlotte 6.0% -380
Salt Lake City 6.1% -100
Inland Empire 6.1% -170
St. Louis 6.1% -180
Palm Beach 6.2% -150
Phoenix 6.6% -310
Orlando 6.7% -250
Atlanta 6.8% -260
San Antonio 6.8% -280
Las Vegas 7.5% -310
Jacksonville 7.7% -430
Tucson 7.9% -270
Houston 8.0% -330
U.S. Average 5.6% -220
All vacancies as of 2Q 2011Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis
National Apartment Rank by Metro Class A – Class BC Vacancy Rate Spread
Top 15 Metros
Class A Vac.
Class B/C Vac.
Bps.Spread
Columbus 4.7% 9.9% 520
Atlanta 6.8% 10.8% 400
Jacksonville 7.7% 11.3% 360
Oklahoma City 5.1% 8.6% 350
Phoenix 6.6% 9.8% 320
Houston 8.0% 11.2% 320
Charlotte 6.0% 8.3% 230
Dallas-Ft. Worth 4.8% 7.1% 230
Tampa 5.5% 7.8% 230
Orlando 6.7% 8.7% 200
Palm Beach 6.2% 8.1% 190
Indianapolis 5.9% 7.7% 180
Tucson 7.9% 9.6% 170
Detroit 5.1% 6.7% 160
Cincinnati 5.0% 6.5% 150
U.S. Average 5.6% 6.1% 50
All vacancies as of 2Q 2011Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis
Bottom 15 Metros
Class A Vac.
Class B/C Vac.
Bps.Spread
Denver 5.0% 4.7% -30
Oakland-East Bay 4.4% 4.1% -30
Chicago 5.5% 4.9% -60
Seattle-Tacoma 5.4% 4.8% -60
Orange County 5.1% 4.4% -70
Minneapolis 3.3% 2.6% -70
Portland 3.9% 3.2% -70
Washington, D.C. 5.4% 4.5% -90
Philadelphia 5.2% 4.2% -100
Inland Empire 6.1% 5.1% -100
Salt Lake City 6.1% 5.0% -110
Boston 5.1% 3.9% -120
San Francisco 4.6% 3.2% -140
Los Angeles 5.4% 3.9% -150
San Diego 4.9% 3.0% -190
U.S. Average 5.6% 6.1% 50
Alan W. GeorgeExecutive Vice President & CIO
Equity Residential
Thomas W. ToomeyPresident & CEO
UDR, Inc.
INSTITUTIONAL APARTMENT INVESTMENT
TRENDS and STRATEGIES
Commercial Delinquency Rates by Lender Type
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4Q19
964Q
1997
4Q19
984Q
1999
4Q20
004Q
2001
4Q20
024Q
2003
4Q20
044Q
2005
4Q20
064Q
2007
1Q20
082Q
2008
3Q20
084Q
2008
1Q20
092Q
2009
3Q20
094Q
2009
1Q20
102Q
2010
3Q20
104Q
2010
1Q20
112Q
2011
CMBS (30+ days and REO) Life Companies (60+ days)Fannie Mae (60+ days) Freddie Mac (90+ days)Banks & Thrifts (90+ days)
Del
inqu
ency
Rat
es
Delinquency rates at the end of each periodSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Mortgage Bankers Association
Apartment Mortgage Originations by Dollar Volume
3% 5%4% 6% 7%7%11%
18%3%
3%
8%
6%
9%
7%5%
9%
1%
1%
1%
2%78%
62%
44%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2009 2010 1H 2011
Govt. Agency
CMBS
Insurance
Nat'l Bank
Private/Other
Reg'l/Local Bank
Non-Bank Financial
Int'l Bank
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al
Apartment Investment Trends Dollar Volume
* YTD 3Q EstimateSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
$0
$40
$80
$120
$160
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 YTD3Q10
YTD3Q11*
$1M - $9.99M $10M - $19.99M $20M+
$120.9 Bil.
$45.0 Bil.
$22.9 Bil. $26.8 Bil.
$41.4 Bil.
Tota
l Dol
lar V
olum
e (B
il.)
-140%
-70%
0%
70%
140%
$1-$10M $10-$20M $20M+
2003-2009 2010 2011
Y-o-
Y C
hang
e
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics, CoStar Group, Inc.
U.S. Apartment Sales Activity Trailing 12 months as of Q3
-160%
-80%
0%
80%
160%
$1-$10M $10-$20M $20M+
2003-2009 2010 2011
Change in Number of Transactions Change in Dollar Volume
Y-o-
Y C
hang
e
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*
$1M-$10M $10M-$20M $20M+
Med
ian
$/U
nit (
Ths.
)Apartment Pricing Trends by Tranche
Median $/Unit
* Through 3Q 2011Sales $1 million and greaterSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Costar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*
$1M-$10M $10M-$20M $20M+
Ave
rage
Cap
Rat
e
* Through 3Q 2011Sales $1 million and greaterSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Costar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
Apartment Cap Rate Trends by Tranche
U.S. Apartment Cap Rates by Class
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*
Class AClass B/CPreferred Markets
Ave
rage
Cap
Rat
e
* Through 3Q 2011 EstimateSales $1 million and greaterAssumes properties less than 10 years old at time of sales to be Class A,properties older than 10 years assumed to be Class B/CPreferred Markets Include: NY, DC, BOS, SD, LA, OC, SJ, SF, SEASources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc.
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
3Q 04
1Q 05
3Q 05
1Q 06
3Q 06
1Q 07
3Q 07
1Q 08
3Q 08
1Q 09
3Q 09
1Q 10
3Q 10
1Q 11
3Q 11
*
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Ave
rage
Cap
Rat
e
* Preliminary EstimateSales $5 million and greaterSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics
Re-Pricing of Risk by Quality Reflected in Apartment Cap Rate Trends by Market
U.S. Apartment Buyer Composition $20m+
4% 2% 2% 2% 4% 5% 2% 2%
9%6%
9% 9% 8%11% 5% 13%
20%
17%17%
15%11%
6%
12%
6%
20%
20%3%2%
3%3%
5%
3%
8%
4%
7%19%
17%18%
34% 44% 26%
9%
22%
21%
49%56% 52%
41%35%
44%
67%
39%30%
3%0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Private
Institutional
Foreign
Public
Equity Fund
User/Other/Unknown
* Through AugustSales $20 million and greaterSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics
Perc
ent o
f Sal
es V
olum
e
U.S. Public REIT Valuation Indices vs. S&P 500
0
225
450
675
900
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*
S&P 500All REITsApartment REITs
* Through October 11Index: December 1993 = 100Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, NAREIT, Standard & Poor’s
Inde
x (D
ec. 1
993
= 10
0)
Peak-Trough Trough-CurrentS&P 500: -51% +71% All REITs: -68% +129%Apt. REITs: -68% +214%
Apartment Cap Rate Trends Average Cap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
*
Class A Cap Rate10-Year Treasury Rate
Ave
rage
Rat
e
10-Yr Treasury Long-Term Avg.
Cap Rate Long- Term Avg.
400
bps 90
bps
400
bps
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
*
Class B/C Cap Rates10-Year Treasury Rate
Ave
rage
Rat
e
Cap Rate Long- Term Avg.
550
bps
450
bps450
bps 12
0 bp
s
10-Yr Treasury Long-Term Avg.
360
bps
* Cap rates estimated through 3Q 2011, Treasury rate through October 10Includes sales $1M+Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc.
U.S. Economic and Institutional ApartmentMarket Overview and Outlook
Special Client WebcastOctober 13, 2011