The U.S. EconomyPre-stimulus/Post-stimulusPre-stimulus/Post-stimulus

Michael NormanJTF Chief Economist

Gross Domestic Product(Y-o-Y % change)

0

1

2

3

4

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Stimulus enacted

Unemployment Rate

8

9

10

11

Stimulus enacted

4

5

6

7

Total Nonfarm Payrolls(M-o-M change thousands)

0

200

400

600

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

Stimulus enacted

Total Private Payrolls(M-o-M change thousands)

0

200

400

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

Stimulus enacted

Industrial Production

95

100

105

80

85

90

Stimulus enacted

Capacity Utilization(percent)

75

80

85

60

65

70

Stimulus enacted

Total Vehicle Sales(million units)

14

15

16

17

18

8

9

10

11

12

13

Stimulus enacted

Housing Starts(thous units)

1200

1400

1600

400

600

800

1000

Stimulus enacted

Stock Market(S&P 500 Index)

1400

1600

1800

600

800

1000

1200

Stimulus enacted

Dollar Index

85

90

95

Stimulus enacted

70

75

80

10yr Treasury Yield (percent)

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

Stimulus enacted

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

U. Of Mich Confidence Survey

80

85

90

95

100

50

55

60

65

70

75

Stimulus enacted

Retail Sales(billions $)

380

400

420

300

320

340

360

Stimulus enacted

Personal Income(Y-o-Y % change)

2

4

6

8

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Stimulus enacted

Personal Saving(billions $)

800

1000

1200

0

200

400

600

Stimulus enacted

Total Business Investment(billions $)

2050

2250

2450

1250

1450

1650

1850

Stimulus enacted

Corporate Profits(billions $)

1600

1800

2000

2200

800

1000

1200

1400

Stimulus enacted

CPI(Y-o-Y % change)

3

4

5

6

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Stimulus enacted

ISM PMI Index

50

55

60

65

30

35

40

45

Stimulus enacted

Oil(WTI $ per barrel)

100

120

140

160

20

40

60

80

Stimulus enacted

Household Net Worth(billions $)

60000

62000

64000

66000

68000

50000

52000

54000

56000

58000

60000

Stimulus enacted

DisclosureThis information provided in this publication is for informational purposes only. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This information report is not an offer tosell or a solicitation to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.This report has been prepared as a matter of general information. It is not intended to be a completedescription of any security or company mentioned, and is not an offer to buy or sell any security. All facts andstatistics are from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Additionalinformation of these securities and companies is available upon request. Securities, financial instruments orstrategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. This material does not take into accountyour particular investment objectives, financial situations or strategies. Before acting on the materialsherein, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary seekprofessional advice. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Pastperformance is no guarantee of future performance. Trading and investment decisions are the soleresponsibility of the reader.responsibility of the reader.