US Employment Decoded

• Based on “Uncooked” Books, same methods of calculation used for all terms.

• All data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• 2012 derived via linear extrapolation from the end of 2011 (2012 mid-year, stats will be released June, 2012).

• Job creation calculated at the end of each term of office. All raw numbers are in millions (000,000s)

A Point Worth Noting

President Inherited Economic Crisis?

Reagan 1 Yes

Reagan 2 No

Bush No

Clinton 1 Iffy

Clinton 2 No

Bush 1 Yes

Bush 2 No

Obama Yes

Raw Labor Statistics by Presidential Term

Prex Year Population

Working

Age

Population

Civilian

Labor

Force Employed Unemployed

Not in

Labor

Force

Carter 1980 227 168 107 99 8 61

Reagan 1 1984 236 176 114 105 9 62

Reagan 2 1988 245 185 122 115 7 63

Bush 1992 255 193 128 119 9 65

Clinton 1 1996 269 201 134 130 4 67

Clinton 2 2002 282 213 143 137 6 70

Bush 1 2004 293 223 147 139 8 76

Bush 2 2008 304 234 154 145 9 80

Obama 2012 313 240 152 141 11 88

•Working Age Population is the sum of Employed, Unemployed and Not in Labor Force•Not in Labor Force means not looking for a job. Reasons may include:

•House Spouse•Completely Retired•Financially Independent.•Tired of looking and gave up, now living on outside support.

Job Creation by Term

Prex Jobs CreatedAs % of Working Age Population

As % of Civilian Workforce

Reagan 1 5.3 3.01% 4.95%

Reagan 2 10.7 5.78% 9.39%

Bush 2.6 1.35% 2.13%

Clinton 1 11.5 5.72% 8.98%

Clinton 2 11.2 5.26% 8.36%

Bush 1 0 0.00% 0.00%

Bush 2 1.1 0.47% 0.75%

Obama -1.2 -0.50% -0.78%

Employed, Unemployed, Not in Labor Force

•Employment begins decline in last year of Bush 2, Continues Trend with Obama.•Unemployment follows 20 year trend.•“Not In Labor Force” spikes upward with Obama, and continues upward.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Employed

Not in Labor Force

Unemployed

End of Term Unemployment Rate

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

Carter Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama

Unemployment Rate

•On the face of it, very little has changed in the last three terms.•It is worth noting that BLS uses SIX difference waysto calculate unemployment. Don’t try this at home.

However, a deeper Dive into Employment vs. Population Growth is Instructive.

PrexJobs

CreatedPopulation

Change

Working-Age

Population Change

Labor Force Change

Not in Labor Force

Change

Reagan 5.3 9 8 7 1

Reagan 10.7 9 9 8 1

Bush 2.6 10 8 6 2

Clinton 11.5 14 8 6 2

Clinton 11.2 13 12 9 3

Bush 0 11 10 4 6

Bush 1.1 11 11 7 4

Obama -1.2 11 6 -2 8

Jobs Created vs. Population Change

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama

Jobs Created

Population Change

Jobs Created vs. Work Age Population Change

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama

Jobs Created

Working-Age Population Change

Jobs Created vs. Work Force Change

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama

Jobs Created

Labor Force Change

And the Winner! Jobs Created vs. Not In Labor Force Change

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama

Jobs Created

Not in Labor Force Change

Why the Increase?

• Single Spouse Earner Households Relatively Flat.

• Financially Independent Households took a dip in late 2008, but it’s still pretty flat.

• While Retirements are on the rise, “Completely Retired” if you aren’t Financially Independent is very unlikely and it sure isn’t increasing.

• That leaves “I’ve just given up because I’m getting help from a third party.”

So why Don’t the Media Stats Look Like This?

1. The political number crunchers decide which “groups” to include or exclude based on what they want you to believe.

2. Axis scales are changed to exaggerate or limit the appearance of change based on what they want you to believe.

3. I know this will shock many, but often they just make stuff up, knowing they are preaching to the choir.