us equities
DESCRIPTION
US Equities. Scenario and strategy. Romina Graiver International Equity Investments Vienna - March 2006. Recent developments in the USA (1). A few recent indicators could raise concerns about the economy…. The first estimate of 4Q GDP growth (1.1%) is below our expectations - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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US Equities Scenario and strategyRomina Graiver International Equity Investments Vienna - March 2006
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Recent developments in the USA (1) A few recent indicators could raise concerns about the economyThe first estimate of 4Q GDP growth (1.1%) is below our expectationsIt is difficult to assess the respective impact of the various factorsHurricanes, oil prices, rising interest rates, etc
Companies quarterly earnings involved a few disappointmentsNegative surprises apparently slightly more numerous than in prior quartersCompetitive pressures and higher costs obviously take a tollHowever negative surprises remain below 20% despite stock option bias
but most indicators point to optimism for the foreseeable futureConfidence gives no sign of erosion ISM, employment, consumer confidence all remain strongProduction, inventories and capacity utilization are rather good
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Recent developments in the USA (2) Most indicators point to optimism for the foreseeable future
Chart1
46.3
49.9
52.1
53.3
52.7
54.4
56.3
53.6
54.4
57.3
56.9
57.1
56.8
56.3
56.9
55.8
54.9
53.2
51.8
51.8
49.5
49.9
48.3
47.7
44.3
41.2
41.9
43.1
43.2
42.1
44.7
43.6
47.9
47
39.8
44.5
48.1
49.9
54.7
55.6
53.9
55.7
56.2
50.5
50.5
49.5
48.5
49.2
55.2
53.9
50.5
46.2
45.4
49.4
49.8
51.8
54.7
53.7
57
62.8
63.4
63.6
61.4
62.5
62.4
62.8
61.1
62
59
58.5
56.8
57.8
57.3
56.4
55.3
55.2
53.3
51.4
53.8
56.6
53.6
59.4
59.1
58.1
55.6
54.8
ISM Manufacturing (NAPM)
Feuil1
INTERNATIONAL EQUITY INVESTMENTS
US Economic Indicators
Eco Growth
&CGDP Growth, Int. Rate & Flow of Funds
US Economic Indicators.xls
Eco Growth
0.059
36161
36192
0.037
36251
36281
0.019
36342
36373
0.057
36434
36465
0.073
36526
36557
0.048
36617
36647
0.056
36708
36739
0.022
36800
36831
0.01
36892
36923
-0.006
36982
37012
-0.016
37073
37104
-0.003
37165
37196
0.027
37257
37288
0.05
37347
37377
0.013
37438
37469
0.04
37530
37561
0.014
37622
37653
0.014
37712
37742
0.033
37803
37834
0.082
37895
37926
0.041
37987
38018
0.045
38078
38108
0.033
38169
38200
0.04
38261
38292
0.038
38353
38384
0.038
38443
38473
0.033
38534
38565
0.041
38626
38657
38687
GDP Growth (annualized)
Inflation
0.0475
0.0475
0.0475
0.0475
0.0475
0.0475
0.05
0.05
0.0525
0.0525
0.0525
0.055
0.055
0.055
0.0575
0.06
0.06
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.06
0.055
0.05
0.045
0.04
0.0375
0.0375
0.035
0.03
0.025
0.02
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.0125
0.015
0.015
0.0175
0.0175
0.02
0.0225
0.0225
0.025
0.0275
0.0275
0.03
0.0325
0.035
0.035
0.0375
0.0375
0.04
0.0425
Fed Funds Target Rate
Manuf & Invent
14.962
19.1048
12.4008
8.9091
10.7916
21.039
19.0182
24.9796
40.9136
53.6822
39.392
34.0249
17.0372
22.365
17.3
24
17.3
19.163
5.524
11.64
25.064
-3.298
-20.572
19.212
18.127
10.815
-1.231
-4.8
-29.353
0.923
15.297
2.921
20.048
4.69
37316
37347
37377
37408
37438
37469
37500
37530
37561
37591
37622
37653
37681
37712
37742
37773
37803
37834
37865
37895
37926
37956
37987
38018
38047
38078
38108
38139
38169
38200
38231
38261
38292
38322
38353
38384
38412
38443
38473
38504
38534
38565
38596
38626
38657
38687
Fed Funds Target Rate
Net New Cash Flow in Stock Mutual Funds($bln)
Employment
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.001
-0.002
0.006
0.006
0.002
0
0
0.002
0.005
0.005
0.003
-0.005
0.002
0.001
-0.004
0
-0.001
-0.003
0
-0.003
-0.003
-0.006
0.001
-0.002
-0.003
0.001
0.006
0.001
0.003
-0.001
-0.008
0.004
0.008
0.011
0.005
0
0
-0.002
0.005
-0.002
-0.002
-0.001
-0.005
0
0.005
0.003
0.001
-0.005
-0.002
0.001
0.011
0.003
0.006
0.004
0
0.005
0.002
0.002
0.004
0
0.008
0.001
0.004
-0.001
-0.003
-0.003
-0.003
-0.004
0.003
0.003
-0.003
0.001
-0.006
0
0
0.012
-0.001
-0.001
-0.008
0.01
0.005
38687
Leading indicators
Consumption
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
Consumption
0.01
36161
36192
0.019
36251
36281
0.014
36342
36373
0.011
36434
36465
0.019
36526
36557
0.033
36617
36647
0.024
36708
36739
0.016
36800
36831
0.02
36892
36923
0.032
36982
37012
0.021
37073
37104
0.022
37165
37196
-0.001
37257
37288
0.013
37347
37377
0.012
37438
37469
0.01
37530
37561
0.016
37622
37653
0.024
37712
37742
0.01
37803
37834
0.016
37895
37926
0.015
37987
38018
0.027
38078
38108
0.032
38169
38200
0.014
38261
38292
0.023
38353
38384
0.031
38443
38473
0.026
38534
38565
0.033
38626
38657
38687
GDP Price Deflator
House Market
0.005
0.003
-0.005
0.003
0.005
0.002
-0.001
0.002
0.005
0.01
-0.001
0.002
0.001
0
0.01
0.01
-0.003
0
0.006
0
-0.002
0.009
0.004
0.001
0.002
0.011
0.001
-0.001
0.003
0.001
-0.004
-0.009
0.004
0.004
-0.016
-0.006
-0.006
0.001
0.002
0.01
-0.002
-0.004
0.001
-0.002
0
0.001
0.011
-0.004
-0.001
0.016
0.01
0.015
-0.019
-0.003
0.005
0.001
0.004
0.003
0.008
-0.003
0.002
0.006
0.001
0.005
0.007
0.008
-0.003
0.001
-0.001
0.001
0.017
0.005
-0.003
0.003
0.004
0.007
0.006
-0.006
0
0.01
0.006
0.019
0.007
-0.007
0.009
PPI (MoM)
Balance of Payments
0.01
-0.002
0.001
-0.001
0.001
0.001
-0.001
0
-0.001
0.007
0.003
0
0.001
-0.002
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.002
-0.001
0.001
0.001
0.003
-0.001
0
0.001
0.007
-0.003
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.002
-0.001
0.003
-0.005
0.002
-0.001
-0.001
0
0.001
0.001
0
0.002
-0.003
-0.001
0.001
0.005
-0.003
-0.005
0.009
-0.005
0.007
-0.009
0.001
-0.001
0.002
0.001
0
0.005
-0.001
-0.001
0.003
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.002
0.001
-0.001
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.008
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.001
-0.001
0.004
0
0.003
-0.003
0.001
0.001
PPI (MoM) Less Food & Energy
PPI Less Food & Energy Change
Data
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.007
0
0
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.005
0.007
0
0.001
0.006
0.002
-0.001
0.005
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.006
0.003
0.001
0.003
0.004
0.002
-0.003
0.001
0.004
-0.003
0
-0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.005
0
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.006
0.003
-0.003
0
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0
-0.002
0.002
0.005
0.003
0.005
0.002
0.006
0.003
-0.001
0.001
0.002
0.006
0.002
0
0.001
0.004
0.006
0.005
-0.001
0
0.005
0.005
0.012
0.002
-0.006
38687
CPI (MoM)
Definitions
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.004
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0
0
0.003
0
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
-0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
38687
CPI (MoM) Less Food & Energy
-0.01
0.004
-0.001
0.002
0.011
0.008
-0.002
0.009
0.01
0.007
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.003
0.02
0.003
-0.015
0.006
0.012
0
0.002
0.012
-0.005
0.001
-0.008
-0.001
-0.006
-0.015
-0.006
0.002
-0.004
-0.015
-0.002
0.001
-0.024
-0.014
-0.009
0.004
-0.001
0.012
0.016
0.001
-0.003
0.004
0.003
0.007
0.001
37561
37591
0.0045
0.017
0.007
-0.03
-0.008
0.007
0.005
0.002
37865
37895
37926
37956
0.015
0.004
38047
38078
0.014
-0.001
0.003
0.017
0.005
0.016
-0.002
-0.014
0.007
0.008
38412
0.012
-0.01
0.01
0.008
0.012
0.023
0.003
-0.018
-0.002
Import Price
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
46.3
49.9
52.1
53.3
52.7
54.4
56.3
53.6
54.4
57.3
56.9
57.1
56.8
56.3
56.9
55.8
54.9
53.2
51.8
51.8
49.5
49.9
48.3
47.7
44.3
41.2
41.9
43.1
43.2
42.1
44.7
43.6
47.9
47
39.8
44.5
48.1
49.9
54.7
55.6
53.9
55.7
56.2
50.5
50.5
49.5
48.5
49.2
55.2
53.9
50.5
46.2
45.4
49.4
49.8
51.8
54.7
53.7
57
62.8
63.4
63.6
61.4
62.5
62.4
62.8
61.1
62
59
58.5
56.8
57.8
57.3
56.4
55.3
55.2
53.3
51.4
53.8
56.6
53.6
59.4
59.1
58.1
55.6
54.8
ISM Manufacturing (NAPM)
0
0
0.003
0.005
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.003
0.01
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.003
0.005
0.009
0.009
0.004
0.007
0.002
0.007
0.003
0
0.001
-0.004
-0.004
-0.002
-0.002
-0.006
-0.005
-0.002
-0.006
-0.016
-0.012
-0.005
-0.001
-0.001
-0.004
-0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.001
0.005
0.001
0.003
0.007
0.003
0.007
0.003
0
-0.003
0.001
-0.002
-0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.008
0.007
0.007
0.007
0.011
0.01
0.007
0
0.004
0.011
0.002
0.009
0.005
0.005
0.002
0.001
0
-0.004
0.004
0.005
0.004
0.005
38687
38718
Business Inventories
0.007
-0.003
0.007
0.003
0.001
0.002
0.004
0.009
0.005
0.01
0.004
0.013
0.004
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.01
0.003
0.006
0
0.004
0.004
0
-0.004
-0.002
0.001
0.001
0.003
-0.004
-0.009
-0.002
-0.001
-0.01
-0.013
-0.005
-0.005
-0.009
-0.003
-0.009
0
0.004
0.006
0.001
0.004
-0.005
0.003
0.008
0
0.003
0.004
-0.003
-0.004
0
0
-0.001
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.002
0.012
0.006
0.002
0.012
0.011
0.015
0.009
0.006
0.011
0.012
0.004
0.01
0.006
0.006
0.007
0.003
0.007
0.001
0.005
0.006
0.002
0.004
38687
38718
Wholesale Inventories
0
0.002
0.003
0.005
0.002
0.005
0.003
0.005
0.003
0.002
0.01
0.004
0.004
0.01
0.001
0.007
0.007
0.005
0.002
0
0.004
0.002
-0.001
-0.003
-0.005
-0.006
-0.004
-0.001
-0.006
-0.005
-0.009
-0.001
-0.007
-0.01
-0.012
-0.004
-0.003
0.002
0.004
0.004
0.003
0.004
0.007
0.004
-0.003
-0.002
-0.006
0.001
-0.004
0.008
-0.001
-0.005
-0.006
0.001
0.001
0.005
-0.001
0.005
0.004
0.01
0
0.008
0.008
-0.001
0.008
0.009
-0.005
0.006
-0.001
0.001
0.006
0.002
0.007
0.001
0.002
0.001
-0.003
0.003
0.008
0.004
0.002
-0.015
0.013
0.007
0.006
38718
Industrial Production
0.806
0.804
0.804
0.805
0.804
0.805
0.805
0.807
0.807
0.806
0.812
0.812
0.811
0.817
0.815
0.817
0.821
0.822
0.822
0.822
0.822
0.822
0.821
0.814
0.807
0.801
0.793
0.789
0.782
0.776
0.772
0.769
0.764
0.755
0.746
0.745
0.744
0.745
0.748
0.753
0.754
0.755
0.76
0.762
0.76
0.758
0.755
0.756
0.752
0.756
0.753
0.748
0.743
0.743
0.742
0.745
0.745
0.749
0.751
0.758
0.756
0.761
0.767
0.765
0.771
0.776
0.769
0.773
0.772
0.773
0.775
0.786
0.791
0.792
0.793
0.794
0.791
0.794
0.798
0.797
0.798
0.789
0.798
0.802
0.807
38718
Capacity Utilisation
0.034
0.031
-0.039
0.029
-0.024
0.01
0.002
0.043
0.009
-0.015
-0.009
0.012
0.065
-0.019
-0.02
0.045
-0.057
0.06
0.095
-0.131
0.024
-0.065
-0.066
0.031
0.014
-0.073
0.039
0.019
-0.057
0.028
-0.026
-0.011
-0.005
-0.092
0.127
-0.06
0.009
0.013
0.027
0.002
0.004
0.006
-0.045
0.086
-0.006
-0.046
0.017
-0.013
-0.004
0.019
-0.015
0.014
-0.024
0
0.026
0.015
-0.001
0.021
0.04
-0.023
0.016
-0.027
0.038
0.057
-0.026
-0.009
0.011
0.018
-0.006
0.009
-0.009
0.018
0.014
-0.011
-0.002
-0.016
0.014
0.064
0.019
-0.053
0.038
-0.02
0.03
0.054
0.013
38718
Durable Goods Orders
0.024
0.0155
-0.018
0.0195
-0.0137
0.0097
0.0082
0.025
0.013
-0.009
-0.0004
0.014
0.038
-0.012
0
0.027
-0.038
0.047
0.052
-0.081
0.02
0.011
-0.04
0.019
0.006
-0.043
-0.001
0.007
-0.03
0.022
-0.029
-0.001
-0.001
-0.065
0.07
-0.043
0.007
0.011
0.002
0.01
0.007
0.006
-0.025
0.047
-0.004
-0.024
0.014
-0.008
0.003
0.017
-0.01
0.022
-0.03
0.003
0.019
0.02
-0.003
0.005
0.024
-0.009
0.018
-0.009
0.011
0.05
-0.011
0.004
0.012
0.017
-0.003
0
0.009
0.014
0.005
0
-0.005
0.007
0.007
0.036
0.009
-0.025
0.029
-0.014
0.017
0.033
0.011
38718
Factory Orders
54.9
58.4
57.6
59.1
59.5
57.3
59.4
61.3
60.3
59.6
61.3
54.8
60.9
57.1
58.3
60.8
60.5
58.9
61.9
57.2
61.3
60.7
59.5
57.6
57.2
51.9
51.4
50.7
47.5
47.1
52.8
49.1
47.4
50.5
41.1
48.2
50
49.5
57
58.2
54.9
59.2
57.4
53.7
51.9
55.4
53.9
55.7
54.2
54.5
53.9
47.9
50.7
54.5
60.6
65.1
65.1
63.3
64.7
60.1
58
65.7
60.8
65.8
68.4
65.2
59.9
64.8
58.2
56.7
59.8
61.3
63.9
59.2
59.8
63.1
61.7
58.5
62.2
60.5
65
53.3
60
58.5
61
56.8
ISM Non-manufacturing
0.027
-0.025
0.026
0.002
0.007
-0.003
-0.011
0.036
-0.006
0.015
0.005
-0.013
0.031
0.025
-0.049
0.046
-0.001
-0.012
0.035
-0.038
-0.003
0.009
-0.01
-0.021
-0.021
-0.005
-0.011
-0.03
-0.035
0.024
-0.018
-0.006
-0.002
-0.061
0.027
0.002
0.007
0.001
-0.007
0
0.039
0.008
-0.039
0.029
-0.017
0
0.016
-0.019
0.009
0.015
-0.023
0.011
-0.015
0.009
0.015
0.023
0.007
0.029
0.03
-0.032
0.017
0.006
0.011
0.063
-0.017
-0.006
-0.003
0
0.028
0.028
-0.013
-0.009
0.028
0.009
-0.002
0.002
-0.007
0.009
0.036
-0.037
0.051
-0.002
-0.002
0.006
0.009
38718
Durable Goods Orders ex-transp.
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
0.041
36161
36192
0.027
36251
36281
0.006
36342
36373
0.05
36434
36465
0.069
36526
36557
0.019
36617
36647
0.061
36708
36739
0.03
36800
36831
0.02
36892
36923
-0.015
36982
37012
-0.001
37073
37104
0.021
37165
37196
0.073
37257
37288
0.086
37347
37377
0.017
37438
37469
0.055
37530
37561
0.007
37622
37653
0.021
37712
37742
0.07
37803
37834
0.094
37895
37926
0.025
37987
38018
0.037
38078
38108
0.039
38169
38200
0.018
38261
38292
0.021
38353
38384
0.032
38443
38473
0.021
38534
38565
0.047
38626
38657
38687
Productivity
-0.004
36161
36192
0.008
36251
36281
0.042
36342
36373
-0.003
36434
36465
-0.029
36526
36557
0.019
36617
36647
-0.002
36708
36739
0.032
36800
36831
0.045
36892
36923
0.043
36982
37012
0.003
37073
37104
-0.011
37165
37196
-0.054
37257
37288
-0.046
37347
37377
0.022
37438
37469
-0.001
37530
37561
0.032
37622
37653
0.015
37712
37742
-0.032
37803
37834
-0.058
37895
37926
0
37987
38018
0.003
38078
38108
0.01
38169
38200
0.016
38261
38292
0.013
38353
38384
0.036
38443
38473
0.018
38534
38565
-0.01
38626
38657
38687
Unit Labour Cost
0.007
36161
36192
0.004
36251
36281
0.011
36342
36373
0.008
36434
36465
0.011
36526
36557
0.014
36617
36647
0.01
36708
36739
0.009
36800
36831
0.009
36892
36923
0.011
36982
37012
0.009
37073
37104
0.01
37165
37196
0.01
37257
37288
0.008
37347
37377
0.01
37438
37469
0.008
37530
37561
0.007
37622
37653
0.02
37712
37742
0.009
37803
37834
0.01
37895
37926
0.008
37987
38018
0.011
38078
38108
38139
38169
38200
38231
38261
38292
38322
38353
38384
0.007
38443
38473
0.007
38534
38565
38596
38626
38657
38687
Employment Cost Index
0.003
0.004
0.002
0.0038
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.003
0.0008
0.005
0.0007
0.001
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.003
0.004
0.001
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.004
0.001
0.006
0.004
0.004
0.003
0.005
0.002
0.004
0.003
0.001
0.005
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.004
0.002
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.002
0.003
-0.001
0.006
0.001
0
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.002
0
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.003
0.001
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.001
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.001
0.001
0.006
0.001
0.003
Average Hourly Earnings
0.044
0.043
0.044
0.042
0.043
0.042
0.043
0.043
0.042
0.042
0.041
0.041
0.041
0.04
0.041
0.041
0.039
0.041
0.04
0.04
0.041
0.039
0.039
0.04
0.04
0.042
0.042
0.043
0.045
0.044
0.045
0.045
0.049
0.049
0.054
0.056
0.058
0.056
0.055
0.057
0.06
0.058
0.059
0.059
0.057
0.056
0.057
0.06
0.06
0.057
0.058
0.058
0.06
0.061
0.064
0.062
0.061
0.061
0.06
0.059
0.057
0.056
0.056
0.057
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.055
0.054
0.054
0.055
0.054
0.054
0.052
0.054
0.052
0.052
0.051
0.05
0.05
0.049
0.051
0.05
0.05
0.049
Unemployment Rate
88
92
92
88
87
89
85
85
87
83
86
85
86
90
90
88
89
83
80
82
77
78
79
75
78
77
72
67
65
60
58
57
53
53
46
45
47
47
46
45
47
44
47
45
41
43
40
40
39
41
40
38
35
35
38
38
37
37
37
39
37
39
40
39
38
39
38
37
37
36
37
36
38
41
41
39
39
37
38
39
38
38
38
39
38687
Help Wanted index
344
113
396
124
382
214
257
295
193
187
422
295
294
194
146
493
308
231
-25
160
-28
89
30
183
124
-53
104
15
-271
1
-150
-115
-141
-267
-361
-332
-212
-165
-90
43
-68
2
25
-111
11
-47
83
-37
-209
94
-159
-110
-20
-28
-14
-45
-25
67
88
83
8
159
83
353
324
208
96
73
144
139
303
137
133
132
243
146
274
104
166
242
211
-8
44
305
108
Change in non-farm payrolls
-17
-23
-32
-26
-26
-9
-39
25
-31
-7
-6
8
-6
4
2
15
6
-24
25
26
-42
-60
-16
-12
-26
-82
-70
-92
-124
-141
-147
-120
-154
-124
-151
-149
-119
-129
-69
-69
-38
-54
-42
-23
-92
-59
-73
-70
-86
-61
-68
-53
-94
-49
-60
-62
-48
-29
-24
-7
-20
-10
7
23
21
31
-3
6
22
-14
-2
-9
-7
-20
15
-7
-6
-6
-21
-6
-9
-28
15
11
18
Change in Manufacturing payrolls
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
0
0.006
0.005
0.002
0.005
0.004
0.008
0.003
0.004
0.001
0.012
0.004
0.003
0.007
0.004
0.007
0.006
0.003
0.004
0.003
0.004
0.011
-0.002
0.002
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.003
0.001
0.004
0.005
0.001
-0.001
-0.001
0
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.004
0.007
0
0.003
0.004
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.002
0.004
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.004
0.006
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.006
0.004
0.037
-0.025
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.002
0.005
0.003
-0.009
0.017
0.005
0.003
38687
Personal Income
0.008
0.005
0.009
0.009
0.0038
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.008
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.006
0.014
0.006
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.006
0.009
0.004
0.003
0.003
0.01
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.003
0.005
0.002
0.003
-0.017
0.029
-0.003
0
0.005
0.006
0.003
0.006
0
0.005
0.01
0.004
-0.004
0.004
0.004
0.01
0
0.001
0.004
0.001
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.011
-0.003
0.001
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.005
0.002
0.01
-0.002
0.008
-0.001
0.006
0.008
0.004
0.008
0.001
0.005
0.009
0.006
0
0.01
0.012
-0.005
0.005
0.002
0.003
38687
Personal Spending
126.7
128.9
133.1
134
135.5
137.7
139
136.2
136
134.2
130.5
137
141.7
144.7
141.8
137.1
137.7
144.7
139.2
143
140.8
142.5
135.8
132.6
128.6
115.7
109.2
116.9
109.9
116.1
118.99
116.3
114
97
85.3
82.2
94.6
97.8
95
110.7
108.5
110.3
106.3
97.4
94.5
93.7
79.6
84.9
80.7
78.8
64.8
62.5
81
83.6
83.5
77
81.7
77
81.7
92.5
91.7
96.4
88.5
88.5
93
93.1
102.8
105.7
98.2
96.7
92.9
92.6
102.7
105.1
104
103
97.5
102.2
106.2
103.6
105.5
87.5
85.2
98.3
103.6
Consumer Confidence
0.0092
0.0126
0.017
-0.001
0.006
0.01
-0.001
0.01
0.0147
0.0001
0.003
0.011
0.019
0.007
0.014
0.004
-0.006
0.005
0.004
0.009
0.002
0.009
0
-0.005
0.001
0.013
-0.002
-0.004
0.014
0.004
0
0.002
0.002
-0.022
0.064
-0.029
0.002
-0.003
0.003
0.001
0.012
-0.012
0.014
0.011
0.006
-0.013
0.001
0.009
0.02
0.003
-0.013
0.023
-0.003
0
0.009
0.013
0.012
-0.004
0
0.009
0.002
0.002
0.01
0.02
-0.006
0.014
-0.005
0.008
-0.002
0.016
0.008
0.001
0.011
0.003
0.005
0.004
0.015
-0.003
0.017
0.018
-0.019
0.003
0.003
0.008
0.007
Retail Sales
17.514.6
16.213.8
16.614.1
16.413.9
16.514
16.914.2
16.814.3
17.514.7
17.314.7
17.214.5
1714
17.114.1
17.715
18.215.1
18.915.8
17.914.9
17.514.4
17.314.3
17.114.1
17.114
17.314.5
18.315.2
1713.9
16.313.3
17.313
17.214.1
17.314.2
16.913.8
16.513.2
16.513.4
17.113.9
16.513.4
16.413.2
16.213.1
21.317.5
17.814.3
16.513.1
1612.6
16.613.3
16.713.2
17.313.8
15.712.5
16.313
18.114.6
18.715.4
16.312.8
15.412.4
1612.6
18.314.8
16.212.9
15.412.2
16.212.7
16.513.1
16.113
16.413.1
17.314
1915.5
16.713.4
15.612.6
16.813.5
1814.8
16.113.2
16.413.2
16.713.3
16.413.1
17.814.3
15.412.2
17.314.1
16.613.5
17.514.3
1713.2
16.412.9
18.414.7
16.213
16.313
16.813.5
17.513.9
16.713.3
17.514.1
20.917.2
16.813.3
16.413
14.711.4
15.712.4
17.213.5
Total vehicle sales
Domestic vehicle sales
Total and Domestic vehicle sales
0.007
0.003
0.011
0.004
0.006
0.01
0.001
0.005
0.009
0.009
0.004
0.009
0.023
-0.01
0.01
0.02
-0.011
0.004
0.003
0.006
-0.001
0.012
0.001
0
0.003
0.007
-0.003
-0.007
0.008
0.006
-0.005
0.003
0.006
-0.012
0.009
0
0.007
0.007
0.005
0.003
0.01
-0.004
0.004
0.003
0.003
-0.001
0.007
0.003
0.001
0.014
-0.004
0.015
-0.009
0.001
0.01
0.01
0.012
0.002
0.004
0.004
0.002
0.012
0.006
0.018
-0.001
0.009
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.008
0.011
0.004
0.003
0.01
0.006
0.002
0.014
0
0.009
0.005
0.01
0.014
0.008
-0.004
0.002
Retail sales ex-Auto
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
78
76
73
70
70
76
77
74
72
73
70
73
72
71
69
61
62
62
57
58
61
61
63
65
58
55
57
58
57
56
58
56
60
56
47
49
57
60
58
60
61
60
60
61
55
63
63
64
65
64
62
52
52
57
62
65
71
68
72
70
70
69
64
64
69
69
68
67
71
67
71
71
71
70
69
70
67
70
72
70
67
65
68
61
57
NAHB Housing Market Index
1708
1778
1738
1654
1572
1591
1641
1641
1619
1606
1636
1678
1683
1762
1661
1597
1559
1511
1528
1511
1486
1518
1546
1598
1507
1724
1663
1627
1587
1621
1587
1571
1571
1528
1485
1595
1654
1721
1774
1599
1631
1676
1700
1645
1666
1727
1772
1738
1887
1779
1811
1688
1724
1803
1823
1800
1901
1875
1981
1863
1953
1932
1909
1975
1999
2097
1945
2066
1969
1998
2018
2028
2069
2132
2107
2021
2148
2062
2132
2171
2138
2219
2071
2155
38687
Building Permits (x1000)
1750
1820
1752
1746
1577
1668
1607
1680
1655
1637
1642
1598
1748
1758
1807
1618
1656
1596
1563
1526
1525
1530
1528
1564
1568
1653
1634
1586
1629
1610
1627
1641
1548
1585
1518
1625
1579
1721
1769
1644
1553
1733
1695
1645
1627
1843
1657
1747
1847
1822
1644
1748
1632
1738
1845
1892
1826
1905
1980
2054
2067
1932
1887
2011
1981
1970
1826
1988
2020
1905
2039
1807
2063
2183
2229
1836
2005
2004
2045
2035
2038
2134
2017
2123
38687
Housing Starts (x1000)
0.015
0.0108
0.0183
0.0066
-0.0151
-0.0087
0.0006
0.0044
-0.005
0
0.0053
0.02
0.021
0.022
0.012
0.017
-0.017
-0.005
-0.013
-0.019
0.018
0.019
0.008
0.002
0.01
0.022
0.009
0.011
0
-0.002
-0.01
-0.008
-0.012
-0.004
0.008
0.003
0.005
0.008
0.007
-0.012
0.004
-0.02
-0.022
-0.001
-0.008
0.003
0.01
0.009
0.015
0.02
0.002
-0.01
-0.006
-0.002
0.007
0.002
0.007
0.013
0.011
0.005
0.006
-0.003
-0.001
0.024
0.012
0.001
0
0.004
0.009
0.001
0.003
0.003
0.012
0.006
0.005
0.006
-0.011
-0.017
-0.006
0.003
0.006
0.002
0.008
0.002
38687
Construction Spending
958
908
909
885
952
914
932
929
912
860
906
886
921
924
924
947
865
886
827
914
860
924
926
890
1001
938
966
988
921
907
906
893
876
854
851
895
966
831
906
906
951
996
953
977
1017
1054
1011
1045
1077
929
943
1011
1028
1108
1200
1112
1147
1145
1105
1117
1125
1099
1128
1239
1192
1337
1211
1082
1165
1224
1278
1097
1218
1121
1275
1313
1271
1321
1324
1373
1197
1260
1404
1245
38687
New Home Sales (x1000)
5.34
5.06
5.14
5.42
5.24
5
5.63
5.4
5.24
5.13
4.88
5.15
5.14
4.45
4.76
5.2
4.88
5.09
5.31
4.82
5.28
5.16
5.07
5.3
4.94
5.2
5.19
5.43
5.22
5.36
5.33
5.2
5.5
4.9
5.18
5.21
5.2
6.05
5.89
5.41
5.77
5.74
5.1
5.37
5.3
5.44
5.76
5.57
5.91
6.1
5.86
5.53
5.85
5.85
5.83
6.13
6.46
6.68
6.35
6.05
6.37
6
6.13
6.48
6.63
6.81
6.92
6.72
6.55
6.76
6.76
6.92
6.69
6.82
6.82
6.87
7.18
7.14
7.35
7.15
7.28
7.29
7.09
6.97
38687
Existing Home Sales (mln)
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
-14.24
-16.15
-18.52
-19.31
-18.9
-21.48
-24.72
-25.34
-23.95
-24.2
-25.6
-27.1
-24.6
-27.4
-27.5
-30.4
-29.6
-29.6
-29.8
-31.8
-30.1
-33.2
-32.9
-33.2
-33.3
-33.3
-28.6
-33.1
-32
-28.5
-29.1
-29.2
-27.1
-19
-29.3
-27.9
-24.7
-28.5
-31.8
-32.5
-35.9
-37.8
-36.8
-35.1
-38.3
-37.1
-35.2
-40
-44.9
-41.2
-40.4
-42.9
-41.6
-41.8
-40
-40.3
-39.2
-41.3
-41.8
-38.4
-42.7
-43.1
-42.1
-46.6
-48.1
-46.9
-55
-50.1
-53.5
-50.9
-55.5
-59.3
-55.7
-58.5
-61
-53.6
-56.9
-55.4
-59.5
-58
-59.3
-66
-68.1
-64.2
38687
Trade Balance -Goods & Services
$bln.
Trade Balance -Goods & Services
82.02
81.7
81.943
82.5
85.2
84.1
84.2
87.3
86.7
85.7
90.6
89.7
93
91.4
90.8
89.2
89.6
89.6
90.5
88.7
86.9
87.7
86
83.6
84.5
76.8
77.64
78.2
78.043
78.25
78.719
78.4
80.1
80.6
37408
37438
37469
37500
37530
37561
37591
37622
37653
37681
37712
37742
37773
37803
37834
37865
37895
37926
37956
37987
38018
38047
38078
38108
38139
38169
38200
38231
38261
38292
38322
38353
38384
38412
38443
38473
38504
38534
38565
38596
38626
38657
38687
Exports ($bln)
$bln.
Export
106.12
106.1
107.9
109.6
110.7
112.1
113.4
117.4
117.1
116.8
121.6
121.6
122.5
124.6
123.7
122.4
122.8
122.8
119.1
121.8
118.9
116.2
115.4
112.8
111.6
95.8
106.8
106.1
102.756
106.486
110.471
110.818
116
118.3
37408
37438
37469
37500
37530
37561
37591
37622
37653
37681
37712
37742
37773
37803
37834
37865
37895
37926
37956
37987
38018
38047
38078
38108
38139
38169
38200
38231
38261
38292
38322
38353
38384
38412
38443
38473
38504
38534
38565
38596
38626
38657
38687
Imports ($bln)
$bln.
Import
US Economic Indicators4Q981Q992Q993Q994Q991Q002Q003Q004Q001Q012Q013Q014Q011Q022Q02
1Q982Q983Q98Dec-98Jan-99Feb-99Mar-99Apr-99May-99Jun-99Jul-99Aug-99Sep-99Oct-99Nov-99Dec-99Jan-00Feb-00Mar-00Apr-00May-00Jun-00Jul-00Aug-00Sep-00Oct-00Nov-00Dec-00Jan-01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-02Feb-02Mar-02Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06
GROWTH:
GDP Growth (annualized)6.7%2.1%3.8%5.9%3.7%1.9%5.7%7.3%4.8%5.6%2.2%1.0%-0.6%-1.6%-0.3%2.7%5.0%1.3%4.0%1.4%1.4%3.3%8.2%4.1%4.5%3.3%4.0%3.8%3.8%3.3%4.1%1.1%
Leading indicators0.2%-0.4%-0.2%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.1%-0.2%0.6%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%0.5%0.3%-0.5%0.2%0.1%-0.4%0.0%-0.1%-0.3%0.0%-0.3%-0.3%-0.6%0.1%-0.2%-0.3%0.1%0.6%0.1%0.3%-0.1%-0.8%0.4%0.8%1.1%0.5%0.0%0.0%-0.2%0.5%-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%-0.5%0.0%0.5%0.3%0.1%-0.5%-0.2%0.1%1.1%0.3%0.6%0.4%0.0%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.0%0.8%0.1%0.4%-0.1%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.4%0.3%0.3%-0.3%0.1%-0.6%0.0%0.0%1.2%-0.1%-0.1%-0.8%1.0%0.9%0.1%
INTEREST RATE & FLOW OF FUNDS
Fed Funds Target Rate4.75%4.75%4.75%4.75%4.75%4.75%5.00%5.00%5.25%5.25%5.25%5.50%5.50%5.50%5.75%6.00%6.00%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.00%5.50%5.00%4.50%4.00%3.75%3.75%3.50%3.00%2.50%2.00%1.75%1.75%1.75%1.75%1.75%1.75%1.75%1.75%1.75%1.75%1.25%1.25%1.25%1.25%1.25%1.25%1.25%1.25%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.25%1.50%1.50%1.75%1.75%2.00%2.25%2.25%2.50%2.75%2.75%3.00%3.25%3.50%3.50%3.75%3.75%4.00%4.25%4.50%
Net New Cash Flow in Stock Mutual Funds ($bln)15.019.112.48.910.821.019.025.040.953.739.434.017.022.417.324.017.319.25.511.625.1-3.3-20.619.218.110.8-1.2-4.8-29.40.915.32.920.04.7
INFLATION:
GDP Price Deflator0.9%1.3%1.5%1.0%1.9%1.4%1.1%1.9%3.3%2.4%1.6%2.0%3.2%2.1%2.2%-0.1%1.3%1.2%1.0%1.6%2.4%1.0%1.6%1.5%2.7%3.2%1.4%2.3%3.1%2.6%3.3%3.0%
PPI (MoM)0.5%0.3%-0.5%0.3%0.5%0.2%-0.1%0.2%0.5%1.0%-0.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%1.0%1.0%-0.3%0.0%0.6%0.0%-0.2%0.9%0.4%0.1%0.2%1.1%0.1%-0.1%0.3%0.1%-0.4%-0.9%0.4%0.4%-1.6%-0.6%-0.6%0.1%0.2%1.0%-0.2%-0.4%0.1%-0.2%0.0%0.1%1.1%-0.4%-0.1%1.6%1.0%1.5%-1.9%-0.3%0.5%0.1%0.4%0.3%0.8%-0.3%0.2%0.6%0.1%0.5%0.7%0.8%-0.3%0.1%-0.1%0.1%1.7%0.5%-0.3%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.6%-0.6%0.0%1.0%0.6%1.9%0.7%-0.7%0.9%
PPI (MoM) Less Food & Energy1.0%-0.2%0.1%-0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.0%-0.1%0.7%0.3%0.0%0.1%-0.2%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.2%-0.1%0.1%0.1%0.3%-0.1%0.0%0.1%0.7%-0.3%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.2%-0.1%0.3%-0.5%0.2%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.2%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%0.5%-0.3%-0.5%0.9%-0.5%0.7%-0.9%0.1%-0.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.5%-0.1%-0.1%0.3%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%-0.1%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.8%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.1%-0.1%0.4%0.0%0.3%-0.3%0.1%0.1%
CPI (MoM)0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.5%0.7%0.0%0.1%0.6%0.2%-0.1%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.2%-0.3%0.1%0.4%-0.3%0.0%-0.1%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.5%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.6%0.3%-0.3%0.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.0%-0.2%0.2%0.5%0.3%0.5%0.2%0.6%0.3%-0.1%0.1%0.2%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.1%0.4%0.6%0.5%-0.1%0.0%0.5%0.5%1.2%0.2%-0.6%-0.1%
CPI (MoM) Less Food & Energy0.3%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.2%-0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%
Import Price-1.0%0.4%-0.1%0.2%1.1%0.8%-0.2%0.9%1.0%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.3%2.0%0.3%-1.5%0.6%1.2%0.0%0.2%1.2%-0.5%0.1%-0.8%-0.1%-0.6%-1.5%-0.6%0.2%-0.4%-1.5%-0.2%0.1%-2.4%-1.4%-0.9%0.4%-0.1%1.2%1.6%0.1%-0.3%0.4%0.3%0.7%0.1%0.5%1.7%0.7%-3.0%-0.8%0.7%0.5%0.2%1.5%0.4%1.4%-0.1%0.3%1.7%0.5%1.6%-0.2%-1.4%0.7%0.8%1.2%-1.0%1.0%0.8%1.2%2.3%0.3%-1.8%-0.2%
CONSUMER SECTOR:
Personal Income0.0%0.6%0.5%0.2%0.5%0.4%0.8%0.3%0.4%0.1%1.2%0.4%0.3%0.7%0.4%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.4%1.1%-0.2%0.2%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.4%0.5%0.1%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.4%0.7%0.0%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.2%0.4%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.5%0.4%0.6%0.6%0.2%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.6%0.4%3.7%-2.5%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.2%0.5%0.3%-0.9%1.7%0.5%0.4%0.4%
Personal Spending0.8%0.5%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.8%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.6%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.6%0.6%0.9%0.4%0.3%0.3%1.0%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.3%0.5%0.2%0.3%-1.7%2.9%-0.3%0.0%0.5%0.6%0.3%0.6%0.0%0.5%1.0%0.4%-0.4%0.4%0.4%1.0%0.0%0.1%0.4%0.1%0.4%0.6%0.9%1.1%-0.3%0.1%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.2%1.0%-0.2%0.8%-0.1%0.6%0.8%0.4%0.8%0.1%0.5%0.9%0.6%0.0%1.0%1.2%-0.5%0.5%0.2%0.5%0.9%
Consumer Confidence126.7128.9133.1134.0135.5137.7139.0136.2136.0134.2130.5137.0141.7144.7141.8137.1137.7144.7139.2143.0140.8142.5135.8132.6128.6115.7109.2116.9109.9116.1119.0116.3114.097.085.382.294.697.895.0110.7108.5110.3106.397.494.593.779.684.980.778.864.862.581.083.683.577.081.777.081.792.591.796.488.588.593.093.1102.8105.798.296.792.992.6102.7105.1104.0103.097.5102.2106.2103.6105.587.585.298.3103.8106.3
Total vehicle sales15.416.816.217.516.216.616.416.516.916.817.517.317.217.017.117.718.218.917.917.517.317.117.117.318.317.016.317.317.217.316.916.516.517.116.516.416.221.317.816.516.016.616.717.315.716.318.118.716.315.416.018.316.215.416.216.516.116.417.319.016.715.616.818.016.116.416.716.417.815.417.316.617.517.016.418.416.216.316.817.516.717.520.916.816.414.715.717.217.6
Domestic vehicle sales13.014.413.714.613.814.113.914.014.214.314.714.714.514.014.115.015.115.814.914.414.314.114.014.515.213.913.313.014.114.213.813.213.413.913.413.213.117.514.313.112.613.313.213.812.513.014.615.412.812.412.614.812.912.212.713.113.013.114.015.513.412.613.514.813.213.213.313.114.312.214.113.514.313.212.914.713.013.013.513.913.314.117.213.313.011.412.413.514.1
Retail Sales0.9%1.3%1.7%-0.1%0.6%1.0%-0.1%1.0%1.5%0.0%0.3%1.1%1.9%0.7%1.4%0.4%-0.6%0.5%0.4%0.9%0.2%0.9%0.0%-0.5%0.1%1.3%-0.2%-0.4%1.4%0.4%0.0%0.2%0.2%-2.2%6.4%-2.9%0.2%-0.3%0.3%0.1%1.2%-1.2%1.4%1.1%0.6%-1.3%0.1%0.9%2.0%0.3%-1.3%2.3%-0.3%0.0%0.9%1.3%1.2%-0.4%0.0%0.9%0.2%0.2%1.0%2.0%-0.6%1.4%-0.5%0.8%-0.2%1.6%0.8%0.1%1.1%0.3%0.5%0.4%1.5%-0.3%1.7%1.8%-1.9%0.3%0.3%0.8%0.7%
Retail sales ex-Auto0.3%0.5%0.1%0.7%0.3%1.1%0.4%0.6%1.0%0.1%0.5%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.9%2.3%-1.0%1.0%2.0%-1.1%0.4%0.3%0.6%-0.1%1.2%0.1%0.0%0.3%0.7%-0.3%-0.7%0.8%0.6%-0.5%0.3%0.6%-1.2%0.9%0.0%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.3%1.0%-0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%-0.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%1.4%-0.4%1.5%-0.9%0.1%1.0%1.0%1.2%0.2%0.4%0.4%0.2%1.2%0.6%1.8%-0.1%0.9%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.8%1.1%0.4%0.3%1.0%0.6%0.2%1.4%0.0%0.9%0.5%1.0%1.4%0.8%-0.4%0.2%
HOUSE MARKET
NAHB Housing Market Index7876737070767774727370737271696162625758616163655855575857565856605647495760586061606061556363646564625252576265716872707069646469696867716771717170697067707270676568615757
Building Permits (x1000)1708177817381654157215911641164116191606163616781683176216611597155915111528151114861518154615981507172416631627158716211587157115711528148515951654172117741599163116761700164516661727177217381887177918111688172418031823180019011875198118631953193219091975199920971945206619691998201820282069213221072021214820622132217121382219207121632068
Housing Starts (x1000)1750182017521746157716681607168016551637164215981748175818071618165615961563152615251530152815641568165316341586162916101627164115481585151816251579172117691644155317331695164516271843165717471847182216441748163217381845189218261905198020542067193218872011198119701826198820201905203918072063218322291836200520042045203520382134201721211933
Construction Spending1.5%1.1%1.8%0.7%-1.5%-0.9%0.1%0.4%-0.5%0.0%0.5%2.0%2.1%2.2%1.2%1.7%-1.7%-0.5%-1.3%-1.9%1.8%1.9%0.8%0.2%1.0%2.2%0.9%1.1%0.0%-0.2%-1.0%-0.8%-1.2%-0.4%0.8%0.3%0.5%0.8%0.7%-1.2%0.4%-2.0%-2.2%-0.1%-0.8%0.3%1.0%0.9%1.5%2.0%0.2%-1.0%-0.6%-0.2%0.7%0.2%0.7%1.3%1.1%0.5%0.6%-0.3%-0.1%2.4%1.2%0.1%0.0%0.4%0.9%0.1%0.3%0.3%1.2%0.6%0.5%0.6%-1.1%-1.7%-0.6%0.3%0.6%0.2%0.8%0.5%1.0%
New Home Sales (x1000)9589089098859529149329299128609068869219249249478658868279148609249268901001938966988921907906893876854851895966831906906951996953977101710541011104510779299431011102811081200111211471145110511171125109911281239119213371211108211651224127810971218112112751313127113211324137311971260140412331269
Existing Home Sales (mln)5.345.065.145.425.245.005.635.405.245.134.885.155.144.454.765.204.885.095.314.825.285.165.075.304.945.205.195.435.225.365.335.205.504.905.185.215.206.055.895.415.775.745.105.375.305.445.765.575.916.105.865.535.855.855.836.136.466.686.356.056.376.006.136.486.636.816.926.726.556.766.766.926.696.826.826.877.187.147.357.157.287.297.097.006.60
EMPLOYMENT
Productivity4.4%0.9%3.1%4.1%2.7%0.6%5.0%6.9%1.9%6.1%3.0%2.0%-1.5%-0.1%2.1%7.3%8.6%1.7%5.5%0.7%2.1%7.0%9.4%2.5%3.7%3.9%1.8%2.1%3.2%2.1%4.5%-0.6%
Unit Labour Cost1.4%3.5%1.3%-0.4%0.8%4.2%-0.3%-2.9%1.9%-0.2%3.2%4.5%4.3%0.3%-1.1%-5.4%-4.6%2.2%-0.1%3.2%1.5%-3.2%-5.8%0.0%0.3%1.0%1.6%1.3%3.6%1.8%-0.5%3.5%
Employment Cost Index0.7%0.9%0.9%0.7%0.4%1.1%0.8%1.1%1.4%1.0%0.9%0.9%1.1%0.9%1.0%1.0%0.8%1.0%0.8%0.7%2.0%0.9%1.0%0.8%1.1%0.7%0.7%0.8%0.8%
Help Wanted index93908888929288878985858783868586909088898380827778797578777267656058575353464547474645474447454143404039414038353538383737373937394039383938373736373638414139393738393838383939
Average Hourly Earnings0.3%0.4%0.2%0.4%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.6%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.5%0.2%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.5%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.4%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.3%-0.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.6%0.1%0.4%0.4%
Unemployment Rate4.4%4.3%4.4%4.2%4.3%4.2%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.2%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.0%4.1%4.1%3.9%4.1%4.0%4.0%4.1%3.9%3.9%4.0%4.0%4.2%4.2%4.3%4.5%4.4%4.5%4.5%4.9%4.9%5.4%5.6%5.8%5.6%5.5%5.7%6.0%5.8%5.9%5.9%5.7%5.6%5.7%6.0%6.0%5.7%5.8%5.8%6.0%6.1%6.4%6.2%6.1%6.1%6.0%5.9%5.7%5.6%5.6%5.7%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.5%5.4%5.4%5.5%5.4%5.4%5.2%5.4%5.2%5.2%5.1%5.0%5.0%4.9%5.1%5.0%5.0%4.9%4.7%
Change in non-farm payrolls344113396124382214257295193187422295294194146493308231-25160-288930183124-5310415-2711-150-115-141-267-361-332-212-165-9043-68225-11111-4783-37-20994-159-110-20-28-14-45-256788838159833533242089673144139303137133132243146274104166242211-844305140193
Change in Manufacturing payrolls-17-23-32-26-26-9-3925-31-7-68-642156-242526-42-60-16-12-26-82-70-92-124-141-147-120-154-124-151-149-119-129-69-69-38-54-42-23-92-59-73-70-86-61-68-53-94-49-60-62-48-29-24-7-20-107232131-3622-14-2-9-7-2015-7-6-6-21-6-9-281511-17
MANUFACTURING & INVENTORIES
ISM Manufacturing (NAPM)46.349.952.153.352.754.456.353.654.457.356.957.156.856.356.955.854.953.251.851.849.549.948.347.744.341.241.943.143.242.144.743.647.947.039.844.548.149.954.755.653.955.756.250.550.549.548.549.255.253.950.546.245.449.449.851.854.753.757.062.863.463.661.462.562.462.861.162.059.058.556.857.857.356.455.355.253.351.453.856.653.659.459.158.155.654.8
ISM Non-manufacturing56.260.257.454.958.457.659.159.557.359.461.360.359.661.354.860.957.158.360.860.558.961.957.261.360.759.557.657.251.951.450.747.547.152.849.147.450.541.148.250.049.557.058.254.959.257.453.751.955.453.955.754.254.553.947.950.754.560.665.165.163.364.760.158.065.760.865.868.465.259.964.858.256.759.861.363.959.259.863.161.758.562.260.565.053.360.058.561.056.8
Business Inventories0.0%0.0%0.3%0.5%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.3%1.0%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.5%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.2%0.7%0.3%0.0%0.1%-0.4%-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.6%-0.5%-0.2%-0.6%-1.6%-1.2%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.1%0.5%0.1%0.3%0.7%0.3%0.7%0.3%0.0%-0.3%0.1%-0.2%-0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.7%1.1%1.0%0.7%0.0%0.4%1.1%0.2%0.9%0.5%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%-0.4%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.5%
Wholesale Inventories0.7%-0.3%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.9%0.5%1.0%0.4%1.3%0.4%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.0%0.3%0.6%0.0%0.4%0.4%0.0%-0.4%-0.2%0.1%0.1%0.3%-0.4%-0.9%-0.2%-0.1%-1.0%-1.3%-0.5%-0.5%-0.9%-0.3%-0.9%0.0%0.4%0.6%0.1%0.4%-0.5%0.3%0.8%0.0%0.3%0.4%-0.3%-0.4%0.0%0.0%-0.1%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.2%1.2%0.6%0.2%1.2%1.1%1.5%0.9%0.6%1.1%1.2%0.4%1.0%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.3%0.7%0.1%0.5%0.6%0.2%0.4%
Industrial Production0.0%0.2%0.3%0.5%0.2%0.5%0.3%0.5%0.3%0.2%1.0%0.4%0.4%1.0%0.1%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.0%0.4%0.2%-0.1%-0.3%-0.5%-0.6%-0.4%-0.1%-0.6%-0.5%-0.9%-0.1%-0.7%-1.0%-1.2%-0.4%-0.3%0.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.4%-0.3%-0.2%-0.6%0.1%-0.4%0.8%-0.1%-0.5%-0.6%0.1%0.1%0.5%-0.1%0.5%0.4%1.0%0.0%0.8%0.8%-0.1%0.8%0.9%-0.5%0.6%-0.1%0.1%0.6%0.2%0.7%0.1%0.2%0.1%-0.3%0.3%0.8%0.4%0.2%-1.5%1.3%0.7%0.6%
Capacity Utilisation80.6%80.4%80.4%80.5%80.4%80.5%80.5%80.7%80.7%80.6%81.2%81.2%81.1%81.7%81.5%81.7%82.1%82.2%82.2%82.2%82.2%82.2%82.1%81.4%80.7%80.1%79.3%78.9%78.2%77.6%77.2%76.9%76.4%75.5%74.6%74.5%74.4%74.5%74.8%75.3%75.4%75.5%76.0%76.2%76.0%75.8%75.5%75.6%75.2%75.6%75.3%74.8%74.3%74.3%74.2%74.5%74.5%74.9%75.1%75.8%75.6%76.1%76.7%76.5%77.1%77.6%76.9%77.3%77.2%77.3%77.5%78.6%79.1%79.2%79.3%79.4%79.1%79.4%79.8%79.7%79.8%78.9%79.8%80.2%80.7%
Durable Goods Orders3.4%3.1%-3.9%2.9%-2.4%1.0%0.2%4.3%0.9%-1.5%-0.9%1.2%6.5%-1.9%-2.0%4.5%-5.7%6.0%9.5%-13.1%2.4%-6.5%-6.6%3.1%1.4%-7.3%3.9%1.9%-5.7%2.8%-2.6%-1.1%-0.5%-9.2%12.7%-6.0%0.9%1.3%2.7%0.2%0.4%0.6%-4.5%8.6%-0.6%-4.6%1.7%-1.3%-0.4%1.9%-1.5%1.4%-2.4%0.0%2.6%1.5%-0.1%2.1%4.0%-2.3%1.6%-2.7%3.8%5.7%-2.6%-0.9%1.1%1.8%-0.6%0.9%-0.9%1.8%1.4%-1.1%-0.2%-1.6%1.4%6.4%1.9%-5.3%3.8%-2.0%3.0%5.4%1.3%
Durable Goods Orders ex-transp.-1.0%1.9%0.9%2.7%-2.5%2.6%0.2%0.7%-0.3%-1.1%3.6%-0.6%1.5%0.5%-1.3%3.1%2.5%-4.9%4.6%-0.1%-1.2%3.5%-3.8%-0.3%0.9%-1.0%-2.1%-2.1%-0.5%-1.1%-3.0%-3.5%2.4%-1.8%-0.6%-0.2%-6.1%2.7%0.2%0.7%0.1%-0.7%0.0%3.9%0.8%-3.9%2.9%-1.7%0.0%1.6%-1.9%0.9%1.5%-2.3%1.1%-1.5%0.9%1.5%2.3%0.7%2.9%3.0%-3.2%1.7%0.6%1.1%6.3%-1.7%-0.6%-0.3%0.0%2.8%2.8%-1.3%-0.9%2.8%0.9%-0.2%0.2%-0.7%0.9%3.6%-3.7%5.1%-0.2%-0.2%0.6%0.9%
Factory Orders2.4%1.6%-1.8%2.0%-1.4%1.0%0.8%2.5%1.3%-0.9%-0.0%1.4%3.8%-1.2%0.0%2.7%-3.8%4.7%5.2%-8.1%2.0%1.1%-4.0%1.9%0.6%-4.3%-0.1%0.7%-3.0%2.2%-2.9%-0.1%-0.1%-6.5%7.0%-4.3%0.7%1.1%0.2%1.0%0.7%0.6%-2.5%4.7%-0.4%-2.4%1.4%-0.8%0.3%1.7%-1.0%2.2%-3.0%0.3%1.9%2.0%-0.3%0.5%2.4%-0.9%1.8%-0.9%1.1%5.0%-1.1%0.4%1.2%1.7%-0.3%0.0%0.9%1.4%0.5%0.0%-0.5%0.7%0.7%3.6%0.9%-2.5%2.9%-1.4%1.7%3.3%1.1%
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Trade Balance -Goods & Services-$14.2-$16.2-$18.5-$19.3-$18.9-$21.5-$24.7-$25.3-$24.0-$24.2-$25.6-$27.1-$24.6-$27.4-$27.5-$30.4-$29.6-$29.6-$29.8-$31.8-$30.1-$33.2-$32.9-$33.2-$33.3-$33.3-$28.6-$33.1-$32.0-$28.5-$29.1-$29.2-$27.1-$19.0-$29.3-$27.9-$24.7-$28.5-$31.8-$32.5-$35.9-$37.8-$36.8-$35.1-$38.3-$37.1-$35.2-$40.0-$44.9-$41.2-$40.4-$42.9-$41.6-$41.8-$40.0-$40.3-$39.2-$41.3-$41.8-$38.4-$42.7-$43.1-$42.1-$46.6-$48.1-$46.9-$55.0-$50.1-$53.5-$50.9-$55.5-$59.3-$55.7-$58.5-$61.0-$53.6-$56.9-$55.4-$59.5-$58.0-$59.3-$66.0-$68.1-$64.2
Exports ($bln)$82.0$81.7$81.9$82.5$85.2$84.1$84.2$87.3$86.7$85.7$90.6$89.7$93.0$91.4$90.8$89.2$89.6$89.6$90.5$88.7$86.9$87.7$86.0$83.6$84.5$76.8$77.6$78.2$78.0$78.3$78.7$78.4$80.1$80.6
Exports Sequential Growth-0.4%0.3%0.7%3.3%-1.3%0.1%3.7%-0.7%-1.2%5.7%-1.0%3.7%-1.7%-0.7%-1.8%0.4%0.0%1.0%-2.0%-2.0%0.9%-1.9%-2.8%1.1%-9.1%1.1%0.7%-0.2%0.3%0.6%-0.4%2.2%0.6%
Imports ($bln)$106.1$106.1$107.9$109.6$110.7$112.1$113.4$117.4$117.1$116.8$121.6$121.6$122.5$124.6$123.7$122.4$122.8$122.8$119.1$121.8$118.9$116.2$115.4$112.8$111.6$95.8$106.8$106.1$102.8$106.5$110.5$110.8$116.0$118.3
Imports Sequential Growth-0.0%1.7%1.6%1.0%1.3%1.2%3.5%-0.3%-0.3%4.1%0.0%0.7%1.7%-0.7%-1.1%0.3%0.0%-3.0%2.3%-2.4%-2.3%-0.7%-2.3%-1.1%-14.2%11.5%-0.7%-3.2%3.6%3.7%0.3%4.7%2.0%
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
FIND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ulc & eci
A change in statistical methods makes the number non comparable with historic series.The largest change is the elimination of an automatic 3.3% boost that since 1960 the Census Bureau had added to the new home sales report to account for builders who did not take out building permits.
148705:MSFT's dividend payment (otherwise would be 0.6%)
US Economic Indicators
Data TypeTickerApprox. DateDefinition
GROWTH:
GDP GrowthQ/Q Chng.GDP CQOQ28/1-25/2-30/3Chain weighted real GDP growth annualised %. GDP includes the total income of everyone in an economy and the total output of an economy (only final goods and services)
INTEREST RATE & FOLOW OF FUNDS
Fed Funds Target RateFOMC
Net New Cash Flow in Stock Mutual FundsM/M Chng.($bln)End of MonthTrends in Mutual Fund Investing published monthly by www.ici.org
INFLATION:
GDP Price DeflatorQ/Q Chng.GDP DCHG28/1-25/2-30/3% change of the GDP implicit price deflator (GDP deflator = Nominal GDP / Real GDP)
PPIM/M Chng.PPI CHNG13 - 17Seasonally adjusted average change of prices received by domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing (data are colecting via sampling in the manufacturing & mining sectors). Imports are not directly included.
PPI Less Food & EnergyM/M Chng.PXFECHNG13 - 17
CPIM/M Chng.CPI CHNG14 - 18Seasonally adjusted average change of prices for urban consumers. Every January, all seasonally adjusted data are revised for 5 years.
CPI Less Food & EnergyM/M Chng.CPUPXCHG14 - 18
Commodity Import PriceM/M Chng.IMP1CHNG12 - 16Non seasonally adjusted US import price index for selected categories of goods
CONSUMER SECTOR:
Personal IncomeM/M Chng.PITLCHNG28 - 30 - 31Income received by individuals, non-profit institutions, welfare funds & private trust funds from salaries, properties, rental income, personal dividend and interest income less private contributions to social insurance.
Personal SpendingM/M Chng.PCE CRCH28 - 30 - 31Seasonally adjusted personal expenditures in goods & services by persons in the US.
Consumer ConfidenceIndex: 1985=100CONCCONF25 - 29Seasonally adjusted "plans to buy within 6 months"
Retail SalesM/M Chng.RTSDCHNG11 - 14Merchandise sold for cash or credit by retailers, receipt for leasing or renting cars or equpment, for services, excise tax on gasoline, liquor & tobacco,
HOUSE MARKET
NAHB Housing Market IndexM/M Chng.USHBMIDXSeasonally adjusted index based on a monthly survey of home builders of single family detached homes (based on present sales, 6 months expectations & traffic of prospective buyers). The index ranges between 1 & 100.
Building PermitsLEI BPOne of the components of the Leading Indicators.
Housing Starts(000)NHSPSTOT16 - 19Seasonally adjusted annual rate of private residential real estate activity (new privately owned housing units started).
Construction SpendingM/M Chng.VNCCCMOM1 - 4Seasonally adjusted value (in US$) of new construction put in place in the US (change).
New Home Sales(000)NHSLTOT29 - 2Seasonally adjusted annualised rate of new single family home sold in the US.
Existing Home Sales(mln.)EHSLSL25 - 27Annualised rate of existing home sales.
WAGE COST:
ProductivityQ/Q Chng.PRODNFR%8/2-7/3Annualised % change in US productivity.
Unit Labour CostQ/Q Chng.COSTNFR%8/2-7/3
Employment Cost IndexQ/Q Chng.ECI SA%28/1Seasonally adjusted measure of the change in labour cost. It includes changes in wages, salaries & employer costs for employees benefits. Overtime, & bonuses are excluded from the calculation
Average Hourly EarningsM/M Chng.USHETOT%4 - 7Avg. hourly earnings of production (or non-supervisory) workers.
Unemployment RateUSURTOT3 - 7Seasonally adjusted % of unemployed over labour force.
MANUFACTURING & INVENTORIES
NAPMM/M Chng.NAPMPMI1st business dayInterview-based index: 30%: new orders, 25%: production, 15%: delivery, 10%: inventory (in units), 20%: employment
Business InventoriesM/M Chng.MTIBCHNG14 - 15
Wholesale InventoriesM/M Chng.MWINCHNG9 - 11
Industrial ProductionM/M Chng.IP CHNG14 - 15Seasonally adjusted
Capacity UtilisationCPTICHNG14 - 15The capacity utilisation = the output index / the capacity index. It is calculated in the manufacturing, mining, electric & gas utilities industries. The output index is seasonally adjusted.
Durable Goods OrdersM/M Chng.DGNOCHNG24 - 27Seasonally adjusted. Durable goods are commodities that can be stored and have an average life of 3 years.
Factory OrdersM/M Chng.TMNOCHNG3 - 5
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Trade Balance -Goods & Services($bln.)USTBTOT18 - 21
Exports ($bln)($bln.)
Imports ($bln)($bln.)
Also ECST US
&A
&F
The New Home Sales number is a seasonally adjusted annual rate. These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability as well as non-sampling error including bias and variance from response, non-reporting, and under-coverage. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 4 months to establish a trend for new houses sold. Preliminary new home sales figures are subject to revision due to the survey methodology and definitions used. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a "sale" is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised +/-3 percent.
The real estate statistics are considered an important gauge of growth because sales of previously owned homes account for 85 percent of all U.S. homes on the market.Sales of existing homes are based on closings, which typically occur 30 to 60 days after a buyer signs a contract for a home. That means sales of previously owned homes are affected more by changes in mortgage rates that occurred a month or two earlier than by changes in rates during the month covered by the report.Source: Bloomberg.
FIND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ulc & eci
Estimates are issued every month of the quarter, the issue of the 3rd month is the final data.
Estimates are issued every month of the quarter, the issue of the 3rd month is the final data.
Estimates are issued the 2nd & 3rd month in the quarter.
Estimates are issued the 2nd & 3rd month in the quarter.
Chart2
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61.7
58.5
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60.5
65
53.3
60
58.5
61
56.8
ISM Non-manufacturing
Feuil1
INTERNATIONAL EQUITY INVESTMENTS
US Economic Indicators
Eco Growth
&CGDP Growth, Int. Rate & Flow of Funds
US Economic Indicators.xls
Eco Growth
0.059
36161
36192
0.037
36251
36281
0.019
36342
36373
0.057
36434
36465
0.073
36526
36557
0.048
36617
36647
0.056
36708
36739
0.022
36800
36831
0.01
36892
36923
-0.006
36982
37012
-0.016
37073
37104
-0.003
37165
37196
0.027
37257
37288
0.05
37347
37377
0.013
37438
37469
0.04
37530
37561
0.014
37622
37653
0.014
37712
37742
0.033
37803
37834
0.082
37895
37926
0.041
37987
38018
0.045
38078
38108
0.033
38169
38200
0.04
38261
38292
0.038
38353
38384
0.038
38443
38473
0.033
38534
38565
0.041
38626
38657
38687
GDP Growth (annualized)
Inflation
0.0475
0.0475
0.0475
0.0475
0.0475
0.0475
0.05
0.05
0.0525
0.0525
0.0525
0.055
0.055
0.055
0.0575
0.06
0.06
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.06
0.055
0.05
0.045
0.04
0.0375
0.0375
0.035
0.03
0.025
0.02
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0175
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.0125
0.015
0.015
0.0175
0.0175
0.02
0.0225
0.0225
0.025
0.0275
0.0275
0.03
0.0325
0.035
0.035
0.0375
0.0375
0.04
0.0425
Fed Funds Target Rate
Manuf & Invent
14.962
19.1048
12.4008
8.9091
10.7916
21.039
19.0182
24.9796
40.9136
53.6822
39.392
34.0249
17.0372
22.365
17.3
24
17.3
19.163
5.524
11.64
25.064
-3.298
-20.572
19.212
18.127
10.815
-1.231
-4.8
-29.353
0.923
15.297
2.921
20.048
4.69
37316
37347
37377
37408
37438
37469
37500
37530
37561
37591
37622
37653
37681
37712
37742
37773
37803
37834
37865
37895
37926
37956
37987
38018
38047
38078
38108
38139
38169
38200
38231
38261
38292
38322
38353
38384
38412
38443
38473
38504
38534
38565
38596
38626
38657
38687
Fed Funds Target Rate
Net New Cash Flow in Stock Mutual Funds($bln)
Employment
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.001
-0.002
0.006
0.006
0.002
0
0
0.002
0.005
0.005
0.003
-0.005
0.002
0.001
-0.004
0
-0.001
-0.003
0
-0.003
-0.003
-0.006
0.001
-0.002
-0.003
0.001
0.006
0.001
0.003
-0.001
-0.008
0.004
0.008
0.011
0.005
0
0
-0.002
0.005
-0.002
-0.002
-0.001
-0.005
0
0.005
0.003
0.001
-0.005
-0.002
0.001
0.011
0.003
0.006
0.004
0
0.005
0.002
0.002
0.004
0
0.008
0.001
0.004
-0.001
-0.003
-0.003
-0.003
-0.004
0.003
0.003
-0.003
0.001
-0.006
0
0
0.012
-0.001
-0.001
-0.008
0.01
0.005
38687
Leading indicators
Consumption
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
Consumption
0.01
36161
36192
0.019
36251
36281
0.014
36342
36373
0.011
36434
36465
0.019
36526
36557
0.033
36617
36647
0.024
36708
36739
0.016
36800
36831
0.02
36892
36923
0.032
36982
37012
0.021
37073
37104
0.022
37165
37196
-0.001
37257
37288
0.013
37347
37377
0.012
37438
37469
0.01
37530
37561
0.016
37622
37653
0.024
37712
37742
0.01
37803
37834
0.016
37895
37926
0.015
37987
38018
0.027
38078
38108
0.032
38169
38200
0.014
38261
38292
0.023
38353
38384
0.031
38443
38473
0.026
38534
38565
0.033
38626
38657
38687
GDP Price Deflator
House Market
0.005
0.003
-0.005
0.003
0.005
0.002
-0.001
0.002
0.005
0.01
-0.001
0.002
0.001
0
0.01
0.01
-0.003
0
0.006
0
-0.002
0.009
0.004
0.001
0.002
0.011
0.001
-0.001
0.003
0.001
-0.004
-0.009
0.004
0.004
-0.016
-0.006
-0.006
0.001
0.002
0.01
-0.002
-0.004
0.001
-0.002
0
0.001
0.011
-0.004
-0.001
0.016
0.01
0.015
-0.019
-0.003
0.005
0.001
0.004
0.003
0.008
-0.003
0.002
0.006
0.001
0.005
0.007
0.008
-0.003
0.001
-0.001
0.001
0.017
0.005
-0.003
0.003
0.004
0.007
0.006
-0.006
0
0.01
0.006
0.019
0.007
-0.007
0.009
PPI (MoM)
Balance of Payments
0.01
-0.002
0.001
-0.001
0.001
0.001
-0.001
0
-0.001
0.007
0.003
0
0.001
-0.002
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.002
-0.001
0.001
0.001
0.003
-0.001
0
0.001
0.007
-0.003
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.002
-0.001
0.003
-0.005
0.002
-0.001
-0.001
0
0.001
0.001
0
0.002
-0.003
-0.001
0.001
0.005
-0.003
-0.005
0.009
-0.005
0.007
-0.009
0.001
-0.001
0.002
0.001
0
0.005
-0.001
-0.001
0.003
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.002
0.001
-0.001
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.008
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.001
-0.001
0.004
0
0.003
-0.003
0.001
0.001
PPI (MoM) Less Food & Energy
PPI Less Food & Energy Change
Data
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.007
0
0
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.005
0.007
0
0.001
0.006
0.002
-0.001
0.005
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.006
0.003
0.001
0.003
0.004
0.002
-0.003
0.001
0.004
-0.003
0
-0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.005
0
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.006
0.003
-0.003
0
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0
-0.002
0.002
0.005
0.003
0.005
0.002
0.006
0.003
-0.001
0.001
0.002
0.006
0.002
0
0.001
0.004
0.006
0.005
-0.001
0
0.005
0.005
0.012
0.002
-0.006
38687
CPI (MoM)
Definitions
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.004
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0
0
0.003
0
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
-0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
38687
CPI (MoM) Less Food & Energy
-0.01
0.004
-0.001
0.002
0.011
0.008
-0.002
0.009
0.01
0.007
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.003
0.02
0.003
-0.015
0.006
0.012
0
0.002
0.012
-0.005
0.001
-0.008
-0.001
-0.006
-0.015
-0.006
0.002
-0.004
-0.015
-0.002
0.001
-0.024
-0.014
-0.009
0.004
-0.001
0.012
0.016
0.001
-0.003
0.004
0.003
0.007
0.001
37561
37591
0.0045
0.017
0.007
-0.03
-0.008
0.007
0.005
0.002
37865
37895
37926
37956
0.015
0.004
38047
38078
0.014
-0.001
0.003
0.017
0.005
0.016
-0.002
-0.014
0.007
0.008
38412
0.012
-0.01
0.01
0.008
0.012
0.023
0.003
-0.018
-0.002
Import Price
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
46.3
49.9
52.1
53.3
52.7
54.4
56.3
53.6
54.4
57.3
56.9
57.1
56.8
56.3
56.9
55.8
54.9
53.2
51.8
51.8
49.5
49.9
48.3
47.7
44.3
41.2
41.9
43.1
43.2
42.1
44.7
43.6
47.9
47
39.8
44.5
48.1
49.9
54.7
55.6
53.9
55.7
56.2
50.5
50.5
49.5
48.5
49.2
55.2
53.9
50.5
46.2
45.4
49.4
49.8
51.8
54.7
53.7
57
62.8
63.4
63.6
61.4
62.5
62.4
62.8
61.1
62
59
58.5
56.8
57.8
57.3
56.4
55.3
55.2
53.3
51.4
53.8
56.6
53.6
59.4
59.1
58.1
55.6
54.8
ISM Manufacturing (NAPM)
0
0
0.003
0.005
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.003
0.01
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.003
0.005
0.009
0.009
0.004
0.007
0.002
0.007
0.003
0
0.001
-0.004
-0.004
-0.002
-0.002
-0.006
-0.005
-0.002
-0.006
-0.016
-0.012
-0.005
-0.001
-0.001
-0.004
-0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.001
0.005
0.001
0.003
0.007
0.003
0.007
0.003
0
-0.003
0.001
-0.002
-0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.008
0.007
0.007
0.007
0.011
0.01
0.007
0
0.004
0.011
0.002
0.009
0.005
0.005
0.002
0.001
0
-0.004
0.004
0.005
0.004
0.005
38687
38718
Business Inventories
0.007
-0.003
0.007
0.003
0.001
0.002
0.004
0.009
0.005
0.01
0.004
0.013
0.004
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.01
0.003
0.006
0
0.004
0.004
0
-0.004
-0.002
0.001
0.001
0.003
-0.004
-0.009
-0.002
-0.001
-0.01
-0.013
-0.005
-0.005
-0.009
-0.003
-0.009
0
0.004
0.006
0.001
0.004
-0.005
0.003
0.008
0
0.003
0.004
-0.003
-0.004
0
0
-0.001
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.002
0.012
0.006
0.002
0.012
0.011
0.015
0.009
0.006
0.011
0.012
0.004
0.01
0.006
0.006
0.007
0.003
0.007
0.001
0.005
0.006
0.002
0.004
38687
38718
Wholesale Inventories
0
0.002
0.003
0.005
0.002
0.005
0.003
0.005
0.003
0.002
0.01
0.004
0.004
0.01
0.001
0.007
0.007
0.005
0.002
0
0.004
0.002
-0.001
-0.003
-0.005
-0.006
-0.004
-0.001
-0.006
-0.005
-0.009
-0.001
-0.007
-0.01
-0.012
-0.004
-0.003
0.002
0.004
0.004
0.003
0.004
0.007
0.004
-0.003
-0.002
-0.006
0.001
-0.004
0.008
-0.001
-0.005
-0.006
0.001
0.001
0.005
-0.001
0.005
0.004
0.01
0
0.008
0.008
-0.001
0.008
0.009
-0.005
0.006
-0.001
0.001
0.006
0.002
0.007
0.001
0.002
0.001
-0.003
0.003
0.008
0.004
0.002
-0.015
0.013
0.007
0.006
38718
Industrial Production
0.806
0.804
0.804
0.805
0.804
0.805
0.805
0.807
0.807
0.806
0.812
0.812
0.811
0.817
0.815
0.817
0.821
0.822
0.822
0.822
0.822
0.822
0.821
0.814
0.807
0.801
0.793
0.789
0.782
0.776
0.772
0.769
0.764
0.755
0.746
0.745
0.744
0.745
0.748
0.753
0.754
0.755
0.76
0.762
0.76
0.758
0.755
0.756
0.752
0.756
0.753
0.748
0.743
0.743
0.742
0.745
0.745
0.749
0.751
0.758
0.756
0.761
0.767
0.765
0.771
0.776
0.769
0.773
0.772
0.773
0.775
0.786
0.791
0.792
0.793
0.794
0.791
0.794
0.798
0.797
0.798
0.789
0.798
0.802
0.807
38718
Capacity Utilisation
0.034
0.031
-0.039
0.029
-0.024
0.01
0.002
0.043
0.009
-0.015
-0.009
0.012
0.065
-0.019
-0.02
0.045
-0.057
0.06
0.095
-0.131
0.024
-0.065
-0.066
0.031
0.014
-0.073
0.039
0.019
-0.057
0.028
-0.026
-0.011
-0.005
-0.092
0.127
-0.06
0.009
0.013
0.027
0.002
0.004
0.006
-0.045
0.086
-0.006
-0.046
0.017
-0.013
-0.004
0.019
-0.015
0.014
-0.024
0
0.026
0.015
-0.001
0.021
0.04
-0.023
0.016
-0.027
0.038
0.057
-0.026
-0.009
0.011
0.018
-0.006
0.009
-0.009
0.018
0.014
-0.011
-0.002
-0.016
0.014
0.064
0.019
-0.053
0.038
-0.02
0.03
0.054
0.013
38718
Durable Goods Orders
0.024
0.0155
-0.018
0.0195
-0.0137
0.0097
0.0082
0.025
0.013
-0.009
-0.0004
0.014
0.038
-0.012
0
0.027
-0.038
0.047
0.052
-0.081
0.02
0.011
-0.04
0.019
0.006
-0.043
-0.001
0.007
-0.03
0.022
-0.029
-0.001
-0.001
-0.065
0.07
-0.043
0.007
0.011
0.002
0.01
0.007
0.006
-0.025
0.047
-0.004
-0.024
0.014
-0.008
0.003
0.017
-0.01
0.022
-0.03
0.003
0.019
0.02
-0.003
0.005
0.024
-0.009
0.018
-0.009
0.011
0.05
-0.011
0.004
0.012
0.017
-0.003
0
0.009
0.014
0.005
0
-0.005
0.007
0.007
0.036
0.009
-0.025
0.029
-0.014
0.017
0.033
0.011
38718
Factory Orders
54.9
58.4
57.6
59.1
59.5
57.3
59.4
61.3
60.3
59.6
61.3
54.8
60.9
57.1
58.3
60.8
60.5
58.9
61.9
57.2
61.3
60.7
59.5
57.6
57.2
51.9
51.4
50.7
47.5
47.1
52.8
49.1
47.4
50.5
41.1
48.2
50
49.5
57
58.2
54.9
59.2
57.4
53.7
51.9
55.4
53.9
55.7
54.2
54.5
53.9
47.9
50.7
54.5
60.6
65.1
65.1
63.3
64.7
60.1
58
65.7
60.8
65.8
68.4
65.2
59.9
64.8
58.2
56.7
59.8
61.3
63.9
59.2
59.8
63.1
61.7
58.5
62.2
60.5
65
53.3
60
58.5
61
56.8
ISM Non-manufacturing
0.027
-0.025
0.026
0.002
0.007
-0.003
-0.011
0.036
-0.006
0.015
0.005
-0.013
0.031
0.025
-0.049
0.046
-0.001
-0.012
0.035
-0.038
-0.003
0.009
-0.01
-0.021
-0.021
-0.005
-0.011
-0.03
-0.035
0.024
-0.018
-0.006
-0.002
-0.061
0.027
0.002
0.007
0.001
-0.007
0
0.039
0.008
-0.039
0.029
-0.017
0
0.016
-0.019
0.009
0.015
-0.023
0.011
-0.015
0.009
0.015
0.023
0.007
0.029
0.03
-0.032
0.017
0.006
0.011
0.063
-0.017
-0.006
-0.003
0
0.028
0.028
-0.013
-0.009
0.028
0.009
-0.002
0.002
-0.007
0.009
0.036
-0.037
0.051
-0.002
-0.002
0.006
0.009
38718
Durable Goods Orders ex-transp.
&A
US Economic Indicators.xls
0.041
36161
36192
0.027
36251
36281
0.006
36342
36373
0.05
36434
36465
0.069
36526
36557
0.019
36617
36647
0.061
36708
36739
0.03
36800
36831
0.02
36892
36923
-0.015
36982
37012
-0.001
37073
37104
0.021
37165
37196
0.073
37257
37288
0.086
37347
37377
0.017
37438
37469
0.055
37530
37561
0.007
37622
37653
0.021
37712
37742
0.07
37803
37834
0.094
37895
37926
0.025
37987
38018
0.037