u.s. heating and cooling degree day summaryjan 1-to-date this week 1 0 0 next week 0 4-1 next week 0...
TRANSCRIPT
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30 Year Average Distribution of Gas Weighted HDDs 30 Year Average Distribution of Pop Weighted CDDs
The heating season is currently <1% complete. The cooling season is currently ~37% complete.
24
Last
1 03 Last Week
U.S. Gas Weighted HDD Summary U.S. Population Weighted CDD Summary
10YrTotal Fcst Week Year Avg
Pop Weighted CDD Summary
Obs/ Difference in Total/Forecast fromFcst Last Prev Last
Period Period5Yr
0-13
Total Fcst Week0
Obs/ Difference in Total/Forecast fromFcst Last Prev
July 1-to-DateLast Week
-1
Avg
-11 2
Avg
-174 9
-18 -17
0
27647
0 93This Week
1 192
-2-3
410 -15
89 34
868
Jan 1-to-Date
1This Week0 Next Week0
04
-1Next Week 0
00
3 3
U.S. Heating and Cooling Degree Day SummaryUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
Year5Yr 10YrAvg
Season to Date HDDs are 1 DDs (48%) below last year and 0 DDs (39%) below the 5 year average.
-1
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
Next week will see 0 fewer HDDs than this week, 0 fewer HDDs than last year, 0 more HDDs than the 5yr Avg.
Season to Date CDDs are 34 DDs (5%) above last year and 27 DDs (4%) above the 5 year average.
US Gas Weighted HDD and US Population Weighted CDD Text Summary
This week will see 24 more CDDs than last week, 8 more CDDs than last year, 4 more CDDs than the 5yr Avg.Next week will see 1 more CDDs than last week, 2 fewer CDDs than last year, 1 more CDDs than the 5yr Avg.
●●●
●●●
This week will see 3 fewer HDDs than last week, 1 fewer HDDs than last year, 1 fewer HDDs than the 5yr Avg.
0
10
20
30
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
HD
Ds
0
5
10
15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CD
Ds
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
May
-07
May
-14
May
-21
May
-28
Jun-
04
Jun-
11
Jun-
18
Jun-
25
Jul-0
2
Jul-0
9
Jul-1
6
Jul-2
3
US Gas Weighted HDDs Last Two Months Plus 15 Day Forecast
HistMin 10Yr-1Stdev Previous Forecast
Current Year Obs/Fcst 10 Yr Max/Avg/Min Last Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
May
-07
May
-14
May
-21
May
-28
Jun-
04
Jun-
11
Jun-
18
Jun-
25
Jul-0
2
Jul-0
9
Jul-1
6
Jul-2
3
US Population Weighted CDDs Last Two Months Plus 15 Day Forecast
Historical Min 10Yr-1Stdev Previous Forecast
Current Year Obs/Fcst 10 Yr Max/Avg/Min Last Year
Today
Today
top of gray bar is value in 15 days
top of gray bar is value in 15 days
5 1992
Heating/Cooling Year Degree Day Rankings (July-June for HDDs and January-December for CDDs)
Rank2001Year
3HDDs
Gas Weighted HDDs
2012 697
Pop Weighted CDDsRank
3 1997 3
Year HDDs
2 2001 20171
Expected HDDs in 15 Days
8 1999 29 2009 2
6 2000 27 2010 2
4 1995 3
1
10 1994 211 2007 2
1987 1
CDDs
2 1988 3
Rank
7 2
Year
6473 2000 7 3 1991 646
Year1 2009 7
Rank1
CDDs1
123 2014 1
20 2012 121 2016 1
18 2002 119 2006 1
2
17 2008 1
14 2005 115 1998 1
Median
12 1996 113 1993
4 1997 65 1987 6
1990 127 1991 1
31 2013 0
28 2004 129 2017 130
24 1989 125 2003 1
2011 0
26
22 2015
7 2010 6128 19948 1993 5
9 1988 5
6 1996 67 1999 5
21
3Median
15 2007
19 2000
6434 2011
6 2016 6135 2015 627
14 2010 415 2014 3
12 1990 413 1995 4
10 1994 511
3
24 2015 325 2006 3
22 2008 323 1991 3
20 2012 321 2003 3
56320 1998 561
6059 2002 598
31 2017 1
29 2005 330 2013 2
27 2002 328 1989 3
319 2004 3
17 1998
26 2007
10
577
17 1996 573Median 2008 5732011 3
18 2016
8
13
2014 58512 1990 582
597
58014 1987 57713 2013
2006
18 1989
111992 5
2006 80376 2016 823
2015 817
1991 8412010 836
3
54
2012 9172 2011 859
2017 850
2007 76214 1998 759
2002 78512 2008 76711
1994 79810 2013 7959
729
19 1989 74120 1988 736
17 2014 75418 1996 745
15 1990 7581987 755Median
1992 644
Expected CDDs in 15 Days
29 2003 66930 1997 654
27 1999 70228 1995 699
25 1993 71026 2009 707
23 2001 71724 2005 716
21 2000 73122 2004
463
1995 49829 2003 48630 1997 476
2004 557
1999 527
27 1993
563
31
50828
26 2005 515
23 2009 5492425 1988 515
22 2001 553
1992
Gas Weighted HDD & Pop Weighted CDD TrendsUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
31
0
20
40
60
80
100
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Season to Date Gas Weighted HDDs
400
500
600
700
800
900
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Season to Date Pop Weighted CDDs
0
20
40
60
80
100
4/21 5/5 5/19 6/2 6/16 6/30 7/14
Weekly U.S. Pop Weighted CDDs
TY LY 5yr Range
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
4/21 5/5 5/19 6/2 6/16 6/30 7/14
Weekly U.S. Gas Weighted HDDs
TY LY 5yr Range
0
1
2
3
4
5
6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Gas Weighted HDDs
TY LY 10yr Range
5
10
15
20
6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Pop Weighted CDDs
TY LY 10yr Range
top of gray bar is value in 15 days
`
top of gray bar is value in 15 days
1 29
1 271 26
28 2003 0 282006 1 27 2006
24 2002 0 24 2014
312013 22013 0 30 2011 0 30
2017
29 2006
1201731 2017 0 31 2013 00 3130 2011 0 30
2012 32011 1 28 20030 29
1 282006 32012 1 29 2017
26 2012 0 26 2011 32008 1 26 200427 2013 0 27 1989 3
1 24 1990 1 24 2008 325 2004 0 25 1994 1 25 2012 1 25 2005 3
22 2014 1 22 2004 2 22 2014 1 22 2002 323 2008 0 23 1998 2 23 1989 1 23 1998 3
20 2016 1 20 2003 2 20 1991 1 20 1991 421 1994 1 21 1989 2 21 2016 1 21 2003 3
18 1999 1 18 1995 3 18 1998 1 18 2014 419 2005 1 19 2015 3 19 2002 1 19 2015 4
Median 1990 1 Median 1993 3 Median 2008 1 Median 2016 417 1998 1 17 2016 3 17 2015 1 17 2007 4
14 2000 1 14 2010 3 14 2005 2 14 1995 515 1989 1 15 2005 3 15 1987 1 15 2004 4
12 2015 1 12 2002 4 12 1994 2 12 2010 513 1995 1 13 1999 3 13 1996 2 13 1994 5
10 1996 1 10 1996 4 10 2007 2 10 1988 611 1997 1 11 1991 4 11 1993 2 11 1990 6
8 1987 2 8 1987 5 8 2009 2 8 1996 79 1993 2 9 1997 4 9 1999 2 9 1999 6
6 2009 3 6 2000 7 6 1995 3 6 1987 77 1991 2 7 2007 5 7 2000 2 7 1993 7
4 2007 5 4 1988 8 4 1997 3 4 1997 85 2010 3 5 1990 7 5 2010 3 5 1992 7
2 1992 7 2 1992 9 2 1988 4 2 2001 93 2001 5 3 2001 9 3 1992 4 3 2000 8
Heating Oil and Propane Weighted HDD TrendsUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
July-June Heating Season-to-Date Heating Oil and Propane Weighted HDD RankingsH.O. Weighted HDDs Expected HDDs in 15 Days Propane Wghtd HDDs Expected HDDs in 15 DaysRank Year HDDs Rank Year HDDs Rank Year HDDs Rank Year HDDs1 1988 7 1 2009 11 1 2001 4 1 2009 9
0
20
40
60
80
100
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Season to Date HO Weighted HDDs
0
20
40
60
80
100
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Season to Date Propane HDDs
0
20
40
60
80
100
4/21 5/5 5/19 6/2 6/16 6/30 7/14
Weekly Propane Weighted HDDs
TY LY 5yr Range
0
50
100
4/21 5/5 5/19 6/2 6/16 6/30 7/14
Weekly Heating Oil Weighted HDDs
TY LY 5yr Range
0
1
2
3
4
5
6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Heating Oil Weighted HDDs
TY LY 10yr Range
0
1
2
3
4
5
6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Propane Weighted HDDs
TY LY 10yr Range
*over last 10 weeks Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page.
*over last 10 weeks Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. *Old DDs also tried to account for electric heat impacting gas power generation.
Population and Gas Weighted Degree Day Forecasts
70
53
58657072
11 1
0.6927
757369 (3) 6969 67
0.8037
47
69
4940 (0)
61
504552 67
49
5164
4356
52
8078
58 (0)305455 41
1
7066 68
0Z GFS (7/6/17)6Z GFS (7/5/17)
12Z GFS (7/5/17)18Z GFS (7/5/17)
67
7/7/2017
0Z Euro (7/6/17)12Z Euro (7/5/17)
0Z Euro ENS (7/6/17) 67
0.0686
72
777373
4346434948
67697469
6968
5957
52
5Yr Avg52
69566550
59
This Yr
61
6146
574750
605544
22 5619
4449
Last Yr4552
44
4340
48
63
Last Yr
70
52
4756
6463
62
Old Gas Weighted DDs* 5
37
5Yr Avg6066
5144
54
4262
596364
0Z GFS ENS (7/6/17)18Z GFS ENS (7/5/17)
FW ForecastModel Average
5Yr AvgLast Yr
12Z Euro ENS (7/5/17)
Last Yr
26
65
60 (0)8465 (0)
Pop Weighted HDDs (New) 1WeekEnding Last Yr Last Yr
Pop Weighted CDDs (New) 1
This Yr This Yr5Yr Avg This Yr5Yr Avg46
19 (0) 58 (0)
5Yr Avg Last Yr
5762
40 19 5457 15 6831 (0) 25 (0) 49 (0)35 1552 14
51
371723 (0) 39 552220 (0) 32 (0) 43 (0)
This Yr
44 (0)
45 (0) 18 (0) 58 (0)31 2541 (0) 27 (0) 61 (0)40 65
21 4627
4560 4743 (0)8 52
5252 (0)26 3041 (0)
9 (0) 47 (0)440 (0)4
15 379 (0) 43 (0)
3148
629 56 49
6663
5279 60
5562 (0)61 (0)
624 (0) 79 (0)5
841 (0) 85 (0)2 34 70
6866
67 67
68
5Yr Avg
If 7/21/2017 is beyond end of model run, missing days are filled in with FW forecast values.
6992
3 (0) 68 (0) 52 (0)1 861 85 6263
65 57
60
8493 (1)
9595
96 (5)
92 (1)
0.7827
1001
64
6
50 (0) 47
74
66 68
67 69
6667
68 7267
54
20
45 32
4445 (0)53 (0)
7470
60 37
47 68 32 (0)59
45 (0)5/12/20175/19/2017
60 (0) 46 (0)56 (0) 46 (0)54 42
78
36
1528
7273631 1 1
1 61 6467 (0)5962
5962 (0)
8 (0) 42 (0) 47553 56/16/2017
69 (0)
1010 (0)12 (0)
0 (0)
0.0313
9 (0)
56
Gas + Electric Heating HDD Blend 3
3 (0)
67
1 (0)73
67
67
6767
67
41
Forecast Source
4768
491710
3757
60 (0)4
5/5/2017
1
6/9/2017
1
0 (0) 0 (0)1 (0)
0 (0) 1 (0)
00 (0) 0
Max Total
WeekGas Weighted HDDs, Gas & Electric Heating Weighted HDDs, and Gas & Electric HDDs + PW CDDs
67 68
57
69
Gas + Elec HDDs + PW CDDs 4
Min Total 67
71
4750
70
4557
1
50
10
4/21/2017
6/9/2017
4/21/2017
6/16/2017
5/26/2017
4 (0) 4 (0)0 (0) 1 (0)
7/21/2017
5/5/20174/28/2017
4/28/2017
Weekly U.S. Population Weighted Degree Day Total Estimates from Model Projections
This YrThis Yr This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg
R squared to EIA Number*
EndingGas R&C Weighted HDDs 3
7/7/20177/14/2017
1
1 (0)1
1 16/30/20176/23/2017
6/2/2017
5/12/2017
6/23/2017
R squared to EIA Number*
0.0402
00 (0) 4
0.0407
7/21/20177/14/2017
6/30/20177/7/2017
01
0
1
6788 67 (0)
6961 64
68 (1)
7/14/2017
69 (3)
6/2/20175/26/20175/19/2017
4
1 68 (2)
8
11
4
253 (0)
28 (0) 22 (0)24 (0)
17
37 (0)
23 (0)
60
70
Updated 7/6/2017 AM
Combo DDs (HDDs+0.75*CDDs) Old Combo Pop Weighted DDs 2
66
7/21/2017
0.7779
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
67
Weekly U.S. Population Weighted Degree Day Totals
5
7
9
11
13
15
6/29/2017 7/4/2017 7/9/2017 7/14/2017 7/19/2017
PW
HD
D +
0.7
2 *
PW
CD
D T
ota
l
Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page.
Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report.
Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. *Excludes AK and HI
Heating Oil and Propane Weighted Data
1 1 22
0 2 00 0 0
31 20 2321 3 13
1 2
24 6 142 7 5
0 0 0
Old Oil Weighted HDDs 12
This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg55 64 7267 64 8847 89 6675 56 3535 50 34
60 (0)
0 0
31 (0) 2 2 3 (0)
17 (0) 106 (0) 5 9
44 3
2
0 (0) 0 0 0 (0)1 0 (0)
0 (0) 0 0 0 (0)
PADD 1 Region and Sub-Region Population Weighted HDDs 7
PADD Regions 2-5 Population Weighted HDDs 7
0 00 (0) 0 0 0 (0) 0 0
1 114 (0) 021 (0) 6 11 2 (0)
9 0 (0)
-- See last page for a map of PADD regions. --
0 (0)
0 01 0 (0)
0 00 0
13 737 (0) 9081 (0) 61 33 21 (0)
62 5 (0)
34 (0) 54 33 5 (0)
0 125 (0) 20 3 (0)
15 97 4
PADD 1C (Lower Atl) HDDs
This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg49 (0) 61 67 4 (0)
10 1359 (0) 58 91 14 (0)
22 235 24
2
9 (0) 3 2 4 (0)
31 1 0 (0)
2 3 (0)
5
30 (0) 39 31 10 (0)
14 97 (0) 3 14 9 (0)
2 (0)13 15 (0)
9 124 9
6 7
0 (0)
93 (0) 131
110 (0) 105 83 17 (0)
12 1640 (0) 75 85 31 (0)
21 2117 21
22 1985 (0) 7161 (0) 50 49 9 (0)
57 33 (0)
7/14/2017 0 (0) 0 1 0 (0) 0 07/21/2017 0 (0) 0 1 0 (0) 0 0
132 34 (0)
PADD 4 (Rocky Mntns) HDDs PADD 5* (West Coast) HDDs
This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg12 29
123 (0) 93 93 29 (0) 34 31
0 (0) 0 06/23/2017 1 (0) 0 1 0 (0) 0 0
0 (0) 0 07/7/2017 0 (0) 1 1 0 (0) 0 0
6/16/2017 0 (0) 2 3
6/30/2017 6 (0) 1 1
1 (0) 5 45/26/2017 35 (0) 14 22 2 (0) 1 1
0 (0) 0 06/9/2017 4 (0) 7 9 0 (0) 0 0
5/19/2017 18 (0) 74 45
6/2/2017 8 (0) 2 12
4/28/2017 65 (0) 56 88 12 (0) 2 910 (0) 8 11
5/12/2017 60 (0) 36 32 3 (0) 2 35/5/2017 86 (0) 78 57
Total PADD1 (East Coast) HDDs PADD 1A (New England) HDDs
7/21/2017 0 (0) 0 0 0 (0) 0 0
Week
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) HDDs
Ending This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr 5Yr AvgWeek PADD 2 (Midwest) HDDs
4/21/2017 33 (0) 48 51 87 (0) 103 97Ending This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg
89 (0)
4/21/2017 34 (0) 35 75
5/12/2017 55 (0)
1 (0) 6 18
5/19/2017 23 (0) 36 24 51 (0) 59 4641 23
1 7 42 (0) 4 245/26/2017 18 (0)
7/14/2017 0 (0) 1 0 0 (0) 5 1
39 63
96 (0) 77
1115/5/2017 26 (0) 58 44 68 (0) 121 94
4/28/2017 42 (0)
6/16/2017 1 (0) 4 3 4 (0) 166/9/2017 15 (0) 4 8
50 (0) 2314 14 326/2/2017 11 (0)
7/7/2017 0 (0) 0 0
2 (0) 2 66/30/2017 1 (0) 0 1 4 (0) 0 36/23/2017 0 (0) 0 1
2 21 (0) 2 10 (0) 2 10 (0) 1 1
0 (0) 1 1
46 (0) 9 2512
51
This Yr Last Yr 5Yr AvgPADD 1B (Central Atl.) HDDs
99
20
0 (0) 6 3
2 (0) 00 (0) 0
7/7/2017 0 (0) 1 17/14/2017 0 (0) 2 17/21/2017 0 (0) 0 0
US Propane Weighted HDDs 6
This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg40 (0) 44 6354 (0) 51 7053 (0) 62 4953 (0) 37 31
1 (0) 2 35 (0)
3 156/9/2017 28 (0) 8 17
6/16/2017 3 (0) 11 76/23/2017 1 (0) 1 46/30/2017 3 (0) 1 2
Week NEW US H. Oil Weighted HDDs 6
Ending This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg4/21/2017 63 (0) 73 804/28/2017 70 (0) 74 97
5/5/2017 52 (0) 96 725/12/2017 84 (0) 63 405/19/2017 40 (0) 57 395/26/2017 34 (0) 21 25
6/2/2017 23 (0)
27 (0) 49 3327 (0) 17 2112 (0) 5 1211 (0) 6 104 (0) 7 5
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
HO & Propane HDDs, PADD Region BreakdownUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report.
Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page.
Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page.
Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report.
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
Week
43 (0) 31 436/2/2017 28 (0) 47 45 22 (0) 39 43
5/26/2017 38 (0) 30 35
Census Region Degree Day ForecastsUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
5Yr Avg5/19/2017 62 (0) 56 43 43 (0) 82 60
Northeast Region Degree Days 8 Midwest Region Degree Days 8
Ending This Yr This Yr Last YrLast Yr 5Yr Avg
486/23/2017 47 (0) 38 40
32 (0)32 (0) 29 30 30 296/16/2017 50 (0) 27 29 64 (0) 54 40
6/9/2017
50 (2) 60 537/21/2017 52 (3) 67 63 55 (4) 57 607/14/2017 46 (1) 50 56
Population Weighted Degree Day Totals by Cenus Region and Sub-Region
7/7/2017 54 (2) 49 57 51 (1) 36 47
Degree Day Totals = HDDs + 0.72 * CDDs
43 (0) 55 516/30/2017 38 (0) 41 44 28 (0) 48
5Yr Avg This YrThis Yr Last Yr83 61
Last Yr 5Yr AvgWest North Central Totals 9
Ending This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr 5Yr AvgWeek New England DD Totals 9 Middle Atlantic DD Totals 9 East North Central DD Totals 9
44 57 (0)38 (0) 3243 45
28 3959
5/26/2017 53 (0) 29 38 32 (0) 30 3441 (0) 7859 (0) 55 41 43 (0)5/19/2017 70 (0) 60 48
3440
6/9/2017 46 (0) 23 33 27 (0) 32 2829 (0) 3023 (0) 52 45 18 (0)6/2/2017 43 (0) 33 45
31 50 (0) 43 4366 (0) 7154 (0) 28 32 64 (0)6/16/2017 42 (0) 24 23
27 44 (0)27 (0) 2947 38
32
58
Midwest and Northeast Sub-Regions
7/7/2017 44 (1) 42 485941 (0) 45 47 25 (0)
58 (2) 51 60 49 (1)436/30/2017 33 (0) 32 34
48 45 (0)43 (0) 4934 (0)44
69 5746
6/23/2017 39 (0) 25
50 65 (3)44 (2) 59 62 6154
7/14/2017 37 (-1) 35 45 50 (1) 55 6132 45 55 (1) 44
66
South Region and Sub-RegionsWeek South Region DD Totals 8 South Atlantic DD Totals 9 East South Central Totals 9 West South Central Totals 9
52 57 66 (4) 6655 (3) 71 67 50 (3)7/21/2017 44 (2) 58 54
40 58 (0)44 (0) 3831 41
42 455Yr Avg
5/19/2017 54 (0) 45 45 56 (0) 50 47Last Yr 5Yr Avg This Yr Last YrThis Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg This YrEnding This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg
57 69 (0)47 (0) 6357 51
59 6561
6/2/2017 58 (0) 61 61 56 (0) 62 5947 (0) 5847 (0) 44 49 34 (0)5/26/2017 45 (0) 46 51
93
65 88 (0)66 (0) 7780 78
93 8775
6/16/2017 74 (0) 80 74 68 (0) 72 6868 (0) 6648 (0) 66 55 43 (0)6/9/2017 53 (0) 65 60
9992
6/30/2017 69 (0) 85 83 65 (0) 76 7595 (0) 10173 (0) 67 72 65 (0)6/23/2017 79 (0) 80 79
95 (0) 10885 (0) 82 79 75 (0)7/7/2017 86 (0) 90 8278 82 (0)52 (0) 85
83 7299
93
West Region and Sub-RegionsWeek West Region DD Totals 8 Mountain DD Totals 9 Pacific DD Totals 9
103 (3) 10680 (3) 87 81 79 (3)7/21/2017 87 (3) 94 8479 99 (0)77 (2) 84
89 79109 997/14/2017 86 (1) 94 86 81 (2) 89 81
335/19/2017 50 (0) 41 44 71 (0) 74 68 40 (0) 27Last Yr 5Yr AvgThis Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg This YrEnding This Yr Last Yr 5Yr Avg
316/2/2017 36 (0) 38 41 63 (0) 60 64 24 (0) 2826 2974 (0) 56 62 33 (0)5/26/2017 46 (0) 36 39
316/16/2017 43 (0) 40 44 66 (0) 67 74 32 (0) 2837 3374 (0) 81 72 29 (0)6/9/2017 43 (0) 51 46
62 (0) 50 59416/30/2017 59 (0) 61 58 92 (0) 93 94 43 (0) 47
44 35100 (0) 92 83 50 (0)6/23/2017 66 (0) 59 50
40 42101 (1) 99 887/21/2017 68 (4) 59 56 53 (5)427/14/2017 70 (-1) 52 57 107 (-2) 90 90 53 (0) 35
34 44101 (0) 84 92 44 (0)7/7/2017
Model Min, Avg, Max refer to forecast weekly degree day totals from weather forecast models
Storage model average absolute error over the previous two years of data is:
Weekly Degree Day Totals vs. Weekly Storage Numbers (Last 2 Years)
Red dots indicate values for last week, yellow dots are this week,and next two weeks.
37 30
Storage Number Forecast Based On:
42 41 36
Model Max50 50 50
Model Min ModelAvg Forecast Model Min ModelAvg Forecast
2701
3820
Weekly Degree Day Totals
1798
1799
1953
22032300
2026
1786
1833189046
146
58 (0) 91 75
26353135
24812563
2115
3173
67 67 67 67
63
2394
52 (0) 54 48
40 (0) 48 50
62 5952 (0)
43 (0) 4861 (0) 56 52
45
63
7/21/2017 4713759417/14/2017
67
2832287973
6850
32723292
Model Max
626765
657/21/2017
Ending7/7/2017
7/14/2017
Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report.
42
27737/7/2017
5yr Avg
2113 256
105 (0) 103
44
79 (0)
2483
TY-5YR
265263
10678
-432
1054
207181
Weekly Degree Day Totals 1WeekEnding This Year Last Year
3/24/2017 109
3234293729783016
69
70 46
69
Week
57 69 74
69 (3)
6067
67 (0)68 (1)
6/9/20176/16/20176/23/20176/30/2017
62 (0)
44
Last Year 5yr Avg This Year Last YearGas Storage Levels (BCF) Gas Storage Build/Draw
37
58 (0) 46
58 (0)
85 1038977 (0) 91
61 (0) 65
49 (0)54
62
5668
2049This Year
20512061
2886
2369244425252631
2189 254726152673
2816
2744281528952963
23012256
247224782477
9.23 BCF
5yr Avg
37
50
7581
282299303275
185164
241225237228
250
4/28/20175/5/2017
3/31/20174/7/2017
4/14/20174/21/2017
30313094
27092770
5/12/20175/19/20175/26/20176/2/2017
43 (0)
685871
3861
718068686341
6146
67
909794
Updated 7/6/2017 AM
87
-27-13
72
12
827266
576373
87
-196-16
74
4568
70
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
35
National Degree Day and NG Storage Projections
64
Weekly U.S. Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary
70504137
R² = 0.9729
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250
Wee
kly
NG
Sto
rage
Num
ber
Weekly Combined Degree Day Total
Old EIA Region Weekly Degree Day Totals
Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals
EIA East Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary
Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals
EIA Midwest Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary
Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals
5yr Avg
19524 580 5 16106418
35
TY-5YR
2634 25
374
2825
43
Last Year
68
2822
5yr AvgThis Year
23 21
58
44
367
629
Gas Storage Levels (BCF)
694
50
45
18This Year
235yr Avg
58 55
28
15
5yr Avg
Last Year 5yr Avg TY-5YR
38 23
40 4041
This Year
-43560 -47
607 -4324
27
2128 22 23
24
18
5/12/2017
66
71
77 59
63
67
76
67
58
44 57 55
59
This Year93
64
Last Year 5yr Avg
564
57
519
56
54
37
East Consuming Region 10
52 61 50
Last YearThis Year Last Year 5yr Avg Last Year 5yr Avg
39
54
399 120
59
West Consuming RegionThis Year
45
59
Gas Storage Levels (BCF)
62
41 34 3935 51
6/9/20176/16/20176/23/20176/30/20177/7/2017
Week
4/28/20175/5/2017
5/12/2017
Ending
5/19/20175/26/20176/2/2017
43 43
325
44
55 4853
Updated 7/6/2017 AM
44
22 27658
-49
556 506 -49
661
45
585 651
55
58 57 65 55
38
487 424
49 47 47
-57
This Year
43 40
491 581
22
90
Last Year22
35 40
8242
63
84
57
44
5/5/2017
62 48 53
350 466 396 -46451
Week
56
7066 78 59
51 4247
60 57
534
57 565/26/20175/19/2017
-60 2940 37-61 2346
42 419 533 479390 508 451
48
536 629 584 -48
40 546/9/2017
457
513 608
5239 47
89
1770
Ending4/28/2017
41
59 47 57
6/2/2017
6/16/2017
Weekly Degree Day Totals 13
95 104
Gas Storage Build/Draw
60
This Year Last Year
Producing Region 10
37 40 43
20
54 41
21
58 62
7/14/2017
67 50 55
-447/7/2017 584 675 628607 645 -38
64 66 71
97 89
94
43 48
21
57
52
23 25
60 50 4860 52
Weekly Degree Day Totals 13This Year
97540
75 71
45 46 603 443
-32
Gas Storage Build/Draw
55
66 57
36 37 41
56
77 97 9691 102
25496
562 626 46825 28
5/12/2017
Week
7/21/2017
Ending4/28/2017
23 19 1722 16
16
5/26/2017
5/5/2017 94 82121215
636/30/2017 50 58 59 564 6516/23/2017
27
2725
89
24 27
2342 45 25 29614 676 525
6/9/20176/2/2017
82 2025 89 29
634 700
41
6663 69 6765 712
5/19/201789
42 9429
6322665 21
726/23/20176/16/2017
71 2045 59 557743 21 27
676 739 605656
68
721 57918 26
6114
76 57
7/14/2017517/7/2017
6/30/2017 31 53 5253 723 782
742 79919
22
22
19 17 23681
57
704 761
552
23
5yr Avg
7/14/20177/21/2017
Last Year
4228
98 103
44
33 32 3165
90
EIA Region Degree Day and Storage Projections
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
20577/21/2017 759 813 701 58 1753 63 56
69
61 62
EIA Mountain Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary
Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals
EIA Pacific Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary
Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals
EIA South Central Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary
Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals
5/26/2017
5/5/2017
6874
6/2/2017
45 55
Gas Storage Build/Draw
0
45yr Avg
124 29
Gas Storage Levels (BCF)
197
157Last Year
87 78 184
68
70
Ending
5/12/2017
74 67 177
5/19/201759 166
153
7558
132177
3432
170129
142 30182137 29
55
6/16/20176/23/2017
1515
65 68 69156 492 28
531193
2
5161 165155 160 126 29
33
6
4
2 2
5
6
37
555187 147 30 5
182
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
Weekly Degree Day Comparison TablesUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
4/28/201792 82
5
6/9/201759
2
98 72 76
Weekly Degree Day Totals 13This Year 5yr Avg
61 17252
68 166
76
Week
6
2
6/30/2017 4 495 78 86 193 207 165 28
201 160 28 484 87 88 188
4 3 3
4/28/2017Ending
4 396210 1687/14/2017 28102 85 85 196
7/7/2017 4 6 5
-19 5 4 85 7
7/21/2017
5/5/2017 42 28 38 238
93 84
5yr Avg This Year
287 25739 233 283 249 -16
172 28
Last Year 5yr Avg TY-5YR
6-232735/19/2017
269
5 96 5 7
40 26 33 250 297244 292 264 -205/12/2017 38 24 30
6/9/2017 29 37 336/16/2017
11 4 98 6 9
24 28 31 307 -22291258 303 282 -245/26/2017 33 26 29
6/2/2017
7 6 85 4 7
32 28 31 281 317 -25306274 311 298 -24
5 -2 445 5-30
-1 -2 6
446/30/2017 43 47 41 285 313 316
280 315 312 -326/23/2017 50 44 35
35 40 806
-28297 318 325
2204/28/2017 40
Week
290 318
7/21/2017
44 3207/7/2017
0 34 0 2-28322
21 25
40 4235 42 294 318
1179 830 20423
Gas Storage Build/Draw
4
1026 1161
Weekly Degree Day Totals 13 Gas Storage Levels (BCF)
53
8 18 24203
103437 41 44
5/5/2017 40 38 435/12/20175/19/2017 55 41 44
10
17 2619 17 25
451076 1214 879 1971057 1197 854 23 18
21192905
24
65 711138 1255 967
161
2022 11 25
646/9/2017930 189
98 96
5/26/2017
1133 1252 1839501119
54 57 1097 12316/2/2017 64 59 63 1242
14
166 -6 8
7/7/2017 91
125 3 17
10031146 1247 9871140 1253 979 2 -2
1716/16/2017 84 91 8389 976/23/2017 89
1130 1236
141 -3 5159
110 -8 -151237/14/2017 96 105 95
5-6 -1 12
7/21/2017 99
103 89 1144 1252
10201138 1251 1015
103 91
6/30/2017 77
This Year Last Year 5yr Avg TY-5YR This Year
Week Weekly Degree Day Totals 13 Gas Storage Levels (BCF) Gas Storage Build/Draw
4
Last Year
6
Ending This Year Last Year 5yr Avg This Year Last Year
43 40This YearThis Year Last Year
5yr Avg5yr Avg TY-5YR This Year Last Year
Last Year 5yr Avg
200 213
7/14/2017 5334
-31
*Denotes projected values from page 3 tableAvg Best
11/1/2013 74 37 No12 No
28 w/ HolidayAverage 70 25
69 20
Average 70
64
wo/ Holiday
306311/11/2016
42 No4/26/2013 774/1/2016 75
11/11/2016 63 30
70 24/10/2015 71 63
73 23 No15 No
11/1/2013 74 37
No
11/1/2013 74
57
64No
57
71 49 No
7475
Holiday
3/18/2016 64 15 No4/11/2014 73 23 No
No
Week
37*4/7/2017 69 10
7/21/2017
Avg Best 52
Week Pop Wtd Storage
No4/19/2013 66 29 No
4/7/2017 69 10
3/31/2017 70 2 No
Holiday
Week?
Average 69
Avg BestAverageAverage 70
10/28/2016 565/1/2015
54 No74
No
3/18/2016
Yes
Week? Number7/7/2017 67 50*
Storage
29
WeekEnding Tot DDs Number
Pop Wtd Storage
63
15
Week Pop Wtd
Yes70 No
Tot DDs
4/7/2017 10
Ending
24/10/2015 71 633/31/2017
10/23/2015 51 62
6/30/2017 52 70* No
4/24/2015 53 83 No10/30/2015 54 56 No
2349
734/18/2014
11/11/2016 3071
4/25/2014
4/19/2013
51 825/2/2014 52 74 No
6966
4/14/2017
5/1/2015
49 54 No 4/11/2014
4/1/2016
No
5/6/2016 49 56 No
69w/ Holiday52
52 wo/ Holiday
69 20
28Average 70 25Average 70
Avg Best
6868
Pop Wtd
69
Week Ending 7/21/2017 Comparisons
Average
StorageEnding Tot DDs Number
4/26/2013 77
3/31/2017
4/18/2014
4/19/2013
3/18/2016
7166
4/1/2016 75
4/11/2014
12
7/14/2017 68 41* NoEnding Tot DDs Number
4/10/2015 71 63 Yes4/18/2014
10/24/2014 50 87 No10/31/2014 49 91 No
69
NoNoNoNo
Holiday Week?
No
Week Ending 6/30/2017 Comparisons
Week Ending 7/14/2017 Comparisons
NoYes
No
No
No
w/ HolidayNo
27
37
31
w/ Holidaywo/ Holiday
12
28
4929
Holiday Week?
NoNo
42
No
wo/ Holiday
Week Ending 7/7/2017 Comparisons
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
NoNoNo
No
Weekly Degree Day and DOE Storage Number Comparison Tables
Weekly Degree Day Comparison TablesUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
The above charts compare the weekly total gas weighted degree days for last week, this week, and next week to the 11 weeksduring the past 5 years that had the most similar gas weighted degree day totals. If a federal holiday occurred during a givenweek, it is marked as "Yes", otherwise as "No". Two averages of the gas weighted degree days and EIA storage numbers arepresented. One that averages all 11 of the closest matches, and one that only averages weeks that did not have a holiday.
NOTE: these EIA average values should not be used as a direct forecast, but just as a weather-based estimate. Theaverage EIA values are just averages of similar weeks, and no attempt is made to adjust for supply/demand differences,or other factors.
Green colors denote above average degree day totals Red colors denote below average degree day totals
PW CMB CMBPW PW PW PW PW PWGW GW GW GW GW PW
Daily Degree Day Summary TableUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
Avg Avg Anom Fcst Obs
Year 2017
Anom Fcst
2016 Year20162017 Year
Avg
CDD CDD CDD CDD
7.7 7.01.20.8
DDHDD HDD HDD HDD HDD CDDDate HDD HDD HDD HDD HDD
2.2 0.2 -0.4 7.1
7.7
1.4 0.8 6.6 9.6
8.43
Ob
serv
ed D
ata
Las
t 30
Day
s
6/6/2017 2.4 0.3 1.4 1.6
6/7/2017 1.7 1.4
1.1
1.1 1.2
4.9
-0.5
1.2 0.01.0 6.56/8/2017 1.2 1.9 1.1 1.3 -0.1 1.2 1.7
-2.2 5.70.3 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.3 5.5 8.6
1.1
6/11/2017 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0
6.3
0.8
6.9-0.6 0.6 1.5 0.9
-0.5
6/9/2017 0.6 1.6 1.0 1.2
-0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 -0.2 11.8 11.8
6/10/2017 0.6 0.7 0.9
8.69.59
-0.4 9.6 9.6 9.24 8.40.6 0.7 1.0
-0.2 0.6 0.4
0.7 -0.16/13/2017 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8
0.7 0.8 -0.2 12.7 10.66/12/2017 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.9
0.86/14/2017 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 -0.3 11.6 9.5 8.88 9.10.8 -0.4 0.4 0.8
13.2 8.7-0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.86/16/2017 -0.5
11.2
0.3 0.4
9.38
0.6 0.7 -0.4 11.3 10.8
9.3 2.0-0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 -0.4 11.36/15/2017 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8
0.66/18/2017 0.1
11.0-0.6 0.2 0.3 0.6
0.6 -0.5 13.3 10.70.7 -0.6 0.1 0.3
12.2
0.2 0.6
0.7 -0.56/17/2017 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8
0.1 0.1 0.4 0.66/20/2017 -0.4
12.2
0.1 0.1
10.6
0.4 0.5 -0.4 11.4 13.4
10.1 2.0-0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.4 12.16/19/2017 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6
0.36/22/2017 0.1
13.0-0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3
0.5 -0.4 12.5 12.50.5 -0.4 0.1 0.3
11.6
0.3 0.4
0.5 -0.46/21/2017 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5
0.5 0.2 0.3 0.46/24/2017 0.0
12.0
0.4 0.2
11.4
0.3 0.4 0.0 10.8 11.9
10.6 2.3-0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.1 12.96/23/2017 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5
0.26/26/2017 0.8
12.80.3 0.5 0.1 0.2
0.3 0.3 8.2 13.70.3 0.4 0.6 0.1
9.6
0.1 0.2
0.3 0.26/25/2017 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.4
0.5 0.4 0.2 0.36/28/2017 0.1
14.0
0.4 0.3
12.5
0.2 0.3 0.1 8.1 11.8
11.4 -3.70.6 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 7.76/27/2017 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.3
0.36/30/2017 0.3
10.9-0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
0.3 -0.1 12.6 10.50.3 0.0 0.2 0.1
10.8
0.2 0.3
0.3 -0.16/29/2017 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
0.1 0.3 0.3 0.47/2/2017 -0.3
10.5
0.1 0.2
11.1
0.3 0.4 -0.3 13.1 9.9
11.0 1.3-0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.1 12.37/1/2017 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
0.27/4/2017 0.1
10.0-0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
0.3 -0.2 13.0 11.30.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1
13.3
0.1 0.2
0.3 -0.27/3/2017 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 13.7 15.17/6/2017 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1
13.5 14.4 12.6 12.2-0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.17/5/2017 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
7/8/2017 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
14.7 13.8 12.6
0.2 -0.1 13.2 14.4
1.30.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 13.97/7/2017 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2
0.2 -0.1 12.8 12.0 12.7 12.5 0.37/10/2017 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
12.30.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 11.97/9/2017 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1
0.2 -0.1 13.6 13.57/12/2017 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12.8 9.2 8.90.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 13.77/11/2017 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1
15.1 12.8 12.2
0.2 -0.2 14.1 15.1
1.7 10.10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 13.97/13/2017 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1
14.00.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 14.27/15/2017 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2
7/14/2017 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2
13.8 10 9.80.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 13.37/17/2017 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.2
0.2 -0.2 13.4 12.8 13.1 12.97/16/2017 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2
10
0.5
0.1 -0.1 13.97/19/2017 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1
0.1 -0.1 13.7 15.37/18/2017 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
Anom
Year Year 2017
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Fcst Obs
PW PW
0.1 -0.1 14.1 14.47/20/2017 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
14.3 13.8 13.4 0.5
13.1 1.013.3
0.0 0.1 0.1
7.2 6.9 6.6 0.5
Year
Avg
3010 30 30 TY LY 10
DD
CMB CMB
DD DD DD
2017 2016 Year Year
Fcst Obs Avg Avg
Year Year Year
Avg Avg
TY LY 30
Year
Anom
CMB
30 TY LY 10 3030 30 TY LY 10
9.1 7.8 7.2 2
2016
Obs
7.3 7.3 7 -1.3
9.01 8.2 -3.3 4.8 6.6 7.6
7.7
1.2 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.1 0.4
7.2 -2.4
9.09 8.2 -1.9 5.1 6.5 7.5 7.1 -2
3.2 9.2
8.8 7.4 7.5 1
9.86 9.4 1.9 8.4 8.1 7.7
2.5 8.8 7.6 7.2 7.4 1.4
7.2 2.6
8.96 8.9 4.3 10.1 7.3 7.3 7.2 2.9
8.5
9.61 8.8 3.9 9.8 8
8.9 8.1 7.8 1
11.2 10.4 1.0 8.3 9.7 8.4
3.5 9.7 7.9 8.1 7.7 2
7.5 0.9
10.3 9.5 2.7 9 8.1 8 7.6 1.4
8.8
10.5 9.8
8.9 8.6 8.1 1.5
11.5 10.8 0.0 8.2 8.8 8.6
1.9 9.1 9.3 8.6 8.2 0.9
8 0.3
11.7 10.7 0.9 8.5 9.4 8.7 8.2 0.3
9.6
11.4 10.6
10.3 9.2 8.5 -2.1
12.4 11.3 -3.2 6.3 8.9 9.2
-3.1 6.7 10 9 8.5 -1.8
8.2 0
11.9 11.2 -1.6 7.6 9.3 8.8 8.5 -0.9
6.4
12.2 11.3
7.9 8.4 8.3 0.8
11 11.1 2.0 9.5 7.4 8.2
1.6 9.4 7.7 8.4 8.3 1.1
8.5 -2.2
11.7 11.1 -0.3 8 8.2 8.7 8.3 -0.3
9.1
11.3 11.0
10.6 9.2 9 0.9
13.3 12.4 1.3 10 11.1 9.7
1.1 9.4 8.2 8.6 8.8 0.6
8.4 1.1
11.2 11.3 2.0 9.6 7.4 8.2 8.4 1.2
9.1 0.9
1.3 9.9
11.7 11.9
9.4 0.2
13 12.8 -0.9 8.7 9 9.5 9.4 -0.7
10.9 10.1 9.3 0.8
13.5 12.7 0.5 9.6 10.5 9.9
10.1
1.1
12.8 12.1 1.5 9.9 9.9 9.4 8.9 1
9.3 8.8 9.3 9.2 0.1
12.7 12.1 1.6 10 9.4
9.1 1.1
12.9 12.5 1.7 10.2 10.2 9.5 9.2 1
10.9 9.3 9 1.1
12.9 12.4 1.7 10.2 11.1 9.4
14.1 13.6
15 D
ay F
ore
cast
Dat
a
GW=Residential and Commercial Gas Weighted, PW=Population Weighted, CMB DD=a combined weighted GW HDD + 0.72*PW CDD total
Historical and Forecast Daily US Degree Day Totals with Comparison to Previous Years
9.6 0.6
10.4 10
10.2 10.5 9.7
-0.2
10 -0.1
10 9.8 0.2
0.1 9.9 11.1 10.3
9.7 9.3 9.6 9.4 0.3
13.7 13.3 0.0 9.6
GW HDD = Residential and Commercial gas weighted HDDs. PW = Population weighted degree days
CMB is the gas weighted HDDs plus 0.72 times the population weighted CDDs.Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page.
GW
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
Daily Regional U.S. Degree Day Totals (New EIA Regions)
EIA East DDs 13 EIA Midwest DDs 13
0.0 0.0 20.0
1.4 1.3 4.4
0.9 3.6 3.6
2.6 3.1 1.7 3.8
2.0 2.5 2.6
4.6
HDD HDD CDD CMB
1.5 1.8 1.7 2.7
1.0
Daily Degree Day Summary TableUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
PW PW GWPW
1.2 1.6 6.2 5.7
1.4 1.9 4.8 4.9
1.8 2.2 2.3 3.5
3.9
2.5 2.8 0.6 2.9
3.2 3.4 0.6 3.6
0.2 0.3 9.7 7.2
0.0 0.0 10.6 7.7
0.2 0.2 11.4 8.4
0.7 1.0 8.2 6.6
0.6 0.9 7.9 6.3
0.5 0.4 11.2 8.5
0.4 0.3 8.6 6.5
0.0 0.0 8.0 5.8
0.3 0.4 8.9 6.7
0.4 0.6 8.4 6.4
1.1 1.0 6.2 5.6
0.8 0.8 5.1 4.5
1.0 1.1 5.0 4.6
0.9 0.9 7.3 6.1
0.1 0.2 9.4 6.9
0.7 0.7 9.1 7.3
0.4 0.4 7.7 5.9
0.2 0.3 7.3 5.5
0.2 0.2 6.5 4.9
1.1 1.1 5.0 4.7
0.6 0.5 9.6 7.5
0.6 0.5 10.2 7.9
0.6 0.5 12.0 9.2
0.4 0.4 12.1 9.1
0.7 0.7 10.2 8.1
0.0 0.0 11.9 8.6
0.2 0.2 11.0 8.1
0.4 0.4 9.3 7.1
0.4 0.4 8.6 6.6
0.6 0.5 8.5 6.7
0.0 0.0 10.0 7.2
0.0 0.0 9.9 7.1
0.0 0.0 10.2 7.4
0.0 0.0 10.2 7.4
0.0 0.0 11.2 8.1
0.0 0.0 10.5 7.6
0.0 0.0 11.1 8.0
0.0 0.0 13.2 9.5
0.0 0.0 14.4 10.4
HDD HDD CDD CMB
PW PWGW
0.0 0.0 18.7 13.5
0.0 0.0 17.9 12.9
0.0 0.0 17.5 12.6
0.0 0.0 15.9 11.4
0.0 0.0 13.8 9.9
0.0 0.0 16.5 11.9
0.0 0.0 17.6 12.7
0.0 0.0 18.7 13.5
0.0 0.0 18.7 13.5
0.0 0.0 18.8 13.5
0.0 0.0 13.4 9.7
0.0 0.0 19.5 14.0
0.0 0.0 17.5 12.6
0.0 0.0 16.4 11.8
0.0 0.0 17.2 12.4
0.0 0.0 17.1 12.3
0.0 0.0 16.0 11.5
0.0 0.0 14.5 10.4
0.0 0.0 13.5 9.8
0.0 0.0 12.9 9.3
0.0 0.0 17.9 12.9
0.0 0.0 18.7 13.5
0.0 0.0 18.0 13.0
0.0 0.0 16.6 12.0
0.0 0.0 18.8 13.5
0.0 0.0 17.8 12.8
0.0 0.0 18.2 13.1
0.0 0.0 18.3 13.2
0.0 0.0 18.0 13.0
0.0 0.0 18.4 13.2
0.0 20.4 14.7
0.0 0.0 20.0 14.4
0.0 0.0 19.5 14.0
0.0 0.0 19.2 13.8
0.0 0.0 18.6 13.4
14.4
0.0 0.0 19.4 14.0
0.0 0.0 19.1 13.8
0.0 0.0 18.9 13.6
0.0 0.0 19.8 14.3
0.0 0.0 20.3 14.6
0.0
PW PWPW GWPW PW GW
EIA Mountain DDs 13 EIA Pacific DDs 13 EIA South Central 13
0.7
13.4 10.23.5 3.6 0.6 0.54.5 8.5 1.1 1.0
10.74.9 0.8 0.8
Ob
serv
ed D
ata
6/6/2017 5.3 4.3
6/7/2017 4.0 3.2
6/8/2017 2.5 2.0
CMBCMB HDD HDD CDDCMB HDD HDD CDDDate HDD HDD CDD
14.5 10.62.5 2.5 0.1 0.12.9 6.1 0.7
13.73.7 0.1 0.1 6.76/9/2017 0.4 0.4 4.6
13.4 9.83.3 2.8 0.2 0.23.0 4.7 0.4 0.4
9.710.1 1.6 1.6 11.39.9 0.1 0.0 14.06/11/2017 0.0 0.0 13.7
10.78.0 1.2 1.2 13.26.9 0.0 0.0 11.16/10/2017 0.0 0.0 9.6
8.510.6 3.0 2.7 7.711.4 0.1 0.1 14.66/13/2017 0.0 0.0 15.9
8.111.1 1.7 1.7 8.910.9 0.0 0.0 15.46/12/2017 0.0 0.0 15.1
9.69.0 0.7 0.6 12.47.1 0.0 0.0 12.46/15/2017 0.2 0.2 9.6
7.69.6 1.0 1.0 9.18.2 0.1 0.1 13.26/14/2017 0.0 0.1 11.3
10.88.8 0.6 0.6 14.27.8 0.0 0.0 12.26/17/2017 0.1 0.1 10.8
10.88.5 0.3 0.3 14.66.8 0.0 0.0 11.86/16/2017 0.3 0.3 9.0
12.94.6 0.2 0.2 17.69.2 0.2 0.2 6.16/19/2017 0.0 0.0 12.8
10.86.4 0.5 0.4 14.410.4 0.1 0.1 8.86/18/2017 0.0 0.0 14.4
15.65.5 0.0 0.0 21.77.9 0.3 0.3 7.26/21/2017 0.0 0.0 11.0
15.54.7 0.1 0.1 21.57.5 0.4 0.3 6.06/20/2017 0.0 0.0 10.4
13.56.2 3.0 2.6 14.610.2 0.2 0.2 8.46/23/2017 0.0 0.0 14.1
14.18.0 0.3 0.3 19.18.2 0.1 0.1 11.16/22/2017 0.0 0.0 11.4
13.03.2 1.3 1.1 16.37.2 1.9 1.7 1.96/25/2017 0.0 0.0 10.0
12.33.8 1.6 1.5 14.89.4 0.9 0.9 4.06/24/2017 0.0 0.0 13.0
11.92.8 0.1 0.1 16.45.6 1.4 1.3 1.96/27/2017 1.1 0.8 6.3
12.83.2 0.4 0.4 17.25.7 2.2 2.0 1.36/26/2017 0.4 0.3 7.3
10.97.6 0.6 0.5 14.47.5 0.1 0.1 10.46/29/2017 0.1 0.1 10.2
11.44.3 0.2 0.2 15.64.8 0.4 0.3 5.56/28/2017 0.5 0.4 6.0
11.07.0 0.2 0.1 15.110.2 0.1 0.1 9.67/1/2017 0.0 0.0 14.1
10.27.2 1.0 0.9 12.89.9 0.0 0.0 9.96/30/2017 0.0 0.0 13.8
13.07.2 0.0 0.0 18.010.2 0.1 0.1 9.97/3/2017 0.0 0.0 14.1
12.56.9 0.1 0.1 17.310.5 0.1 0.1 9.57/2/2017 0.0 0.0 14.6
15.38.4 0.0 0.0 21.29.2 0.0 0.0 11.67/5/2017 0.0 0.0 12.8
14.37.1 0.0 0.0 19.99.6 0.0 0.0 9.87/4/2017 0.0 0.0 13.3
22.2 16.012.6 9.1 0.0 0.012.2 8.8 0.0 0.0
Fo
reca
st D
ata
7/6/2017 0.0 0.0
7/7/2017 0.0 0.0
7/8/2017 0.0 0.0 20.2 14.57.3 5.3 0.0 0.013.1 9.4 0.0 0.0
20.7 14.910.7 7.7 0.0 0.013.2 9.5 0.0 0.0
14.47.4 0.0 0.0 20.08.4 0.0 0.0 10.27/10/2017 0.0 0.0 11.7
14.56.0 0.0 0.0 20.27.6 0.0 0.0 8.37/9/2017 0.0 0.0 10.5
14.48.4 0.0 0.0 20.09.4 0.0 0.0 11.77/12/2017 0.0 0.0 13.0
14.27.7 0.0 0.0 19.79.9 0.0 0.0 10.77/11/2017 0.0 0.0 13.8
14.89.2 0.0 0.0 20.68.9 0.0 0.0 12.87/14/2017 0.0 0.0 12.3
14.89.5 0.0 0.0 20.68.8 0.0 0.0 13.27/13/2017 0.0 0.0 12.2
14.17.6 0.0 0.0 19.68.6 0.0 0.0 10.57/16/2017 0.0 0.0 12.0
14.68.4 0.0 0.0 20.39.2 0.0 0.0 11.77/15/2017 0.0 0.0 12.8
9.4 0.0 0.0 11.37/18/2017 0.0 0.0 13.1
13.57.6 0.0 0.0 18.89.0 0.0 0.0 10.67/17/2017 0.0 0.0 12.5
13.48.5 0.0 0.0 18.69.9 0.0 0.0 11.87/20/2017 0.0 0.0 13.7
13.28.5 0.0 0.0 18.49.7 0.0 0.0 11.87/19/2017 0.0 0.0 13.5
13.48.1 0.0 0.0 18.6
GW HDD = Residential and Commercial gas weighted HDDs. PW = Population weighted degree days
CMB is the gas weighted HDDs plus 0.72 times the population weighted CDDs.Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page.
0.0 0.10.0 0.10.0 0.1
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.00.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
Heat Pro 6
0.0 0.00.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.10.0 0.10.0 0.10.0 0.10.0 0.10.0 0.10.0 0.10.0 0.10.0 0.1
0.40.1 0.60.2 0.8
0.1
0.5 1.01.2 1.00.8 0.60.5 0.40.0 0.30.0 0.2
0.4 0.60.9 0.6
0.50.4 0.30.0 0.1
1.1
0.0 0.10.0 0.20.1 0.20.0 0.2
HDDs HDDs
8.3 2.81.7
2.7 1.21.0 0.8
4.2
0.70.2 0.6
0.7
0.2 0.7
0.10.3
0.0 0.0 13.3 9.60.0 0.0
13.7 9.90.0 0.0 13.9 10.00.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 14.1 10.2
13.6 9.90.1 0.1 13.9 10.10.1 0.1
14.1 10.20.0 0.0 14.2 10.20.0 0.0
13.4 9.7
0.1 0.1 13.9 10.10.1 0.1
13.2 9.60.1 0.1 11.9 8.70.1 0.1
12.8 9.30.1 0.1 13.7 10.00.1 0.1
13.1 9.50.1 0.1 13.3 9.60.1 0.1
13.0 9.40.1 0.1 13.5 9.90.1 0.1
13.7 10.0
0.9 0.7 7.7 6.40.8 0.6
8.1 6.30.3 0.2 10.8 8.00.5 0.4
12.6 9.40.2 0.2 12.3 9.10.3 0.2
8.50.1 0.1 12.5 9.1
0.10.1
10.8 8.20.7 0.5 9.6 7.60.5 0.4
8.2 6.7
19.8 14.3
18.9 13.619.2 13.8
1.2 4.9 4.8
0.6 0.6 12.7 9.80.7 11.8 9.2
8.5
0.1 0.1 13.3 9.79.08.4
12.1 8.80.1 0.1 11.4 8.30.1 0.1
11.6
17.7 12.718.5 13.319.1 13.819.3 13.919.9 14.3
14.118.7 13.5
20.3 14.620.1 14.519.6
18.6 13.416.5 11.917.9 12.918.7 13.518.0 13.018.4 13.218.0 13.018.3 13.218.1 13.0
17.8 12.816.7 12.0
19.6 14.113.5 9.712.9 9.313.4 9.714.4 10.416.0 11.517.2 12.4
9.1 0.0 0.0
GW
CMB HDD HDD
9.0 0.0
0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
0.00.00.0
0.00.00.00.0
0.00.0
PW
0.00.00.00.0
9.5 0.0 0.08.9 0.0 0.08.9 0.0 0.09.5 0.0 0.0
0.0
9.9 0.0 0.09.3 0.0 0.09.2 0.0 0.0
10.1 0.0 0.010.5 0.0 0.0
8.6 0.0 0.010.0 0.0 0.010.7 0.0 0.010.7 0.0 0.010.7 0.0 0.09.9 0.0 0.0
6.7 0.0 0.06.4 0.0 0.06.9 0.0 0.06.6 0.0 0.07.3 0.0 0.07.7 0.0 0.0
8.4 0.0 0.08.0 0.0 0.08.6 0.0 0.09.9 0.0 0.08.9 0.0 0.07.8 0.0 0.0
12.711.912.012.9
12.812.512.6
13.914.513.812.9
6.4 0.0 0.0
5.8 0.0 0.05.2 0.0
0.07.6 0.0 0.0
8.7 0.0 0.08.9 0.0 0.09.4 0.0 0.0
9.510.212.311.59.98.27.88.18.09.8
10.411.613.314.214.514.313.2
GW PW
EIA East DDs 10 EIA West DDs 10PW PW
EIA Producing 10PW PWGW
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
0.00.0 13.0 9.4 0.0 0.00.0 13.2 9.5 0.0
0.00.0 12.0 8.6 0.0 0.00.0 12.6 9.1 0.0
0.00.0 12.5 9.0 0.0 0.00.0 11.6 8.4 0.0
0.20.0 13.0 9.4 0.4 0.30.0 12.7 9.1 0.2
0.10.0 0.20.0 12.6 9.1 0.1
0.0
0.30.0 12.5 9.0 0.3 0.20.0 11.3 8.1 0.4
0.30.0 9.9 7.1 0.4 0.30.0 11.3 8.1 0.4
12.6 9.1 0.2
0.20.0 13.0 9.4 0.2 0.20.0 12.2 8.8 0.3
0.40.0 12.3 8.9 0.5 0.40.0 12.3 8.9 0.5
1.00.1 10.4 7.6 0.8 0.70.0 12.7 9.2 1.1
0.20.0 12.9 9.3 0.8 0.80.0 13.2 9.5 0.2
0.60.6 7.5 6.0 1.1 1.01.0 5.5 5.0 0.6
0.91.2 5.0 4.8 0.7 0.70.4 5.9 4.6 0.8
Total U.S. DDs 1
CMB
GW PW PW
HDD HDD
1.11.0
10.3 7.6 1.212.5 9.0 1.2 0.3 12.9 9.60.3
6.02.0 2.41.6 1.9
6.34.2
2.6 2.7
12.112.712.011.3
6.6
10.0 7.3 0.3 0.4
HDD
0.7
CMB
7.96.7 0.3
CDD
9.0 0.0 0.0
17.6 12.718.7 13.518.5 13.3
13.9 10.010.6 7.6
17.5 12.616.6 12.0
18.3 13.2
7.3
6/29/2017
6/30/2017
6/23/2017
6/24/2017
6/27/2017
7/14/2017
7/13/2017
7/12/2017
7/5/2017
7/4/2017
6/25/2017
6/26/2017
Fo
reca
st D
ata
7/11/2017
7/15/2017
7/7/2017
7/6/2017
7/9/2017
7/8/2017
Ob
serv
ed D
ata
7/19/2017
7/20/2017
7/18/2017
7/17/2017
7/16/2017
7/10/2017
7/1/2017
7/2/2017
7/3/2017
paneOil 6
CDD
0.00.2
6/22/2017
CDDDate
0.1
11.6
9.26/20/2017 0.10.1
6/28/2017
0.00.00.10.40.71.00.4
6/21/2017
6/16/2017 0.2
4.2 7.1CDD CMB
2.4 2.2
0.10.0
HDD HDD
0.0 10.912.9
0.19.9
0.01.6
1.0 1.3
0.20.30.7 0.9
8.4
Daily Regional (Old EIA Regions) and U.S. Degree Day Totals
0.3 0.4
1.3
0.2
HDD
0.7
0.2 12.20.00.0
8.3 13.47.0 0.0
0.3
0.26/17/2017 0.0 11.4 8.2
6/19/2017
6/18/2017 0.0
0.26/15/2017 0.1 10.5 7.70.2
0.3 11.30.4 0.4 11.30.0
9.3 0.3
0.20.5 0.69.99.9
11.77.8 0.0
0.4 0.4 11.6 8.80.6 13.2 10.1
18.6
11.2 2.2 2.4 17.7 12.76/14/2017 0.0 11.9 8.60.1
2.2 2.4 17.3 12.54.5 0.0 0.03.26/12/2017 0.0 15.4 11.10.00.60.06/13/2017 0.0 15.6
0.6 0.6 9.6 7.515.8 11.45.3 0.0 0.0
6/10/2017 0.0 9.9 7.10.010.20.0
0.60.0 0.01.2
0.6 6.3 5.16/9/2017 0.3 5.2 4.00.3 6.2 6.0
0.83.86/11/2017 0.0 14.1
1.76/7/2017 2.7 2.7 4.6 1.6 5.5 5.713.2 9.55.9 0.0 0.02.41.0 1.2 11.1 8.05.8 5.2 0.0 0.0
7.36/8/2017 1.7 2.9 3.81.5
7.11.2 1.1 14.4 10.46.3 0.0 0.06/6/2017 3.6 6.63.3
Updated 7/6/2017 AM
Daily Degree Day Summary Table
Long Range Gas Weighted HDD Projections
2321987
Updated 7/6/2017 AM
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
Seasonal HDD Projections Using Season-to-Date + 15 Day Forecast + Last 35 Years of Observed DataMay 31 Anomaly
Mar 31 Anomaly
Seasonal Gas Weighted HDD Anomaly Plume Summary
2013
2000 4571983 457
1995395389
2002 3311993
2010 192
3281992
1988 195
2411996
2006 -341991 -92
2003 -62004 -10
1986 232012 -6
205
2007 661989 63
2009 841982 76
1985 1042014 89
1984 1452008 131
2001 -2302005 -239
2011 -633
1999 -3032015 -6162016 -618
1997 -119
1990 -219
Fcst -1261994 -1651998 -189
2014 2101992 192
1984 2312002 230
1993 2732010 242
1983 3751995 329
2000 4862013 428
2003 431989 13
1988 671986 45
2009 991996 69
1985 1262007 117
1987 1352008 130
2005 -1381998 -140
2006 -1191990 -136
1982 -1151997 -116
Fcst -641991 -114
2004 12012 -30
2015 -514
-88
2011 -526
Sep-May Nov-Mar Dec-Feb Sep-May Nov-Mar
1999 -3112016 -425
1994 -2002001 -293
-44
-5 11
Current + Mod-Strg El Nino Avg
-28 4-21
Current + Coldest Year 467 486 283Dec-Feb
-611 -425 -282
-117 -64-113 -184
59Current + ForecastCurrent + 10 Year Avg
Current + Last Year
Current + Weak-Mod El Nino AvgCurrent + Mod-Strg La Nina Avg
Current + Weak-Mod La Nina Avg-526 55
169 181 11919 1323Current + Average All YearsCurrent + Warmest Year -626 -526 -299
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1-S
ep
15-S
ep
29-S
ep
13-O
ct
27-O
ct
10-N
ov
24-N
ov
8-D
ec
22-D
ec
5-Ja
n
19-J
an
2-F
eb
16-F
eb
2-M
ar
16-M
ar
30-M
ar
13-A
pr
27-A
pr
11-M
ay
25-M
ay
Cum
ulat
ive
HD
D A
nom
aly
.
September - May US R&C Gas Weighted HDD Anomaly Plume Relative to 30 Year Average
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong El Nino
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate El Nino
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate La Nina
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong La Nina
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Last Year
Current + 15 Day Fcst + 10 Year Average
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Forecast
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1-N
ov
8-N
ov
15-N
ov
22-N
ov
29-N
ov
6-D
ec
13-D
ec
20-D
ec
27-D
ec
3-Ja
n
10-J
an
17-J
an
24-J
an
31-J
an
7-F
eb
14-F
eb
21-F
eb
28-F
eb
7-M
ar
14-M
ar
21-M
ar
28-M
ar
Cum
ulat
ive
HD
D A
nom
aly
November - March US R&C Gas Weighted HDD Anomaly Plume (vs 30 Year Average)
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong El Nino
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate El Nino
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong La Nina
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate La Nina
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Last Year
Current + 15 Day Fcst + 10 Year Average
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Forecast
56% of years colder than Normal, 44% of years warmer than Normal when projecting end of season total using using observations to date plus weather from past years
58% of years colder than Normal, 42% of years warmer than Normal when projecting end of season total using using observations to date plus weather from past years
2010 1801983 175
2007 2022005 193
2016 2812015 210
Long Range Population Weighted CDD ProjectionsUpdated 7/6/2017 AM
Seasonal CDD Projection Plumes Using Season-to-Date Plus Last 35 Years of Observed DataNov 30 Anomaly
Fcst 922014 89
1988 1001991 96
2012 1241990 102
1998 1522002 125
2011 1601995 157
1986 342009 28
1987 492001 40
1999 682008 51
2003 752013 69
1993 872006 82
1996 -231992 -41
1982 02004 -8
1989 171994 11
1997 212000 17
1985 261984 24
1998 1012002 81
2007 1051995 105
1983 1182011 108
2010 1242015 121
Sep 30 Anomaly
2016 1792005 127
1999 152013 14
1990 272014 25
1993 361991 30
Fcst 412006 37
2012 731988 52
1994 -371989 -41
2000 -201997 -36
2009 -151986 -19
2008 -22001 -8
1987 122003 4
Seasonal Population Weighted CDD Anomaly Plume Summary
Jan-Dec May-Sep Jun-Aug Jan-Dec May-Sep Jun-Aug
2004 -681992 -91
1982 -561996 -66
1984 -421985 -53
Current + Mod-Strg La Nina Avg 140 79 75Current + 10 Year Avg 142 73 63Current + Weak-Mod El Nino Avg 45 -1 8Current + Forecast 86 41 52
Current + Mod-Strg El Nino Avg 41 -21 -7Current + Hottest Year 290 179 126
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
Current + Average All Years 85 27 33Current + Coolest Year -43 -91 -80Current + Weak-Mod La Nina Avg 106 54 66Current + Last Year 290 179 126
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1-M
ar
15-M
ar
29-M
ar
12-A
pr
26-A
pr
10-M
ay
24-M
ay
7-Ju
n
21-J
un
5-Ju
l
19-J
ul
2-A
ug
16-A
ug
30-A
ug
13-S
ep
27-S
ep
11-O
ct
25-O
ct
Cum
ulat
ive
CD
D A
nom
aly
.
March-November 2017 US Population Weighted CDD Anomaly Plume Relative to 30 Year Avg
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong El Nino
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate El Nino
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong La Nina
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate La Nina
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Last Year
Current + 15 Day Fcst + 10 Year Average
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Forecast
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1-M
ay
8-M
ay
15-M
ay
22-M
ay
29-M
ay
5-Ju
n
12-J
un
19-J
un
26-J
un
3-Ju
l
10-J
ul
17-J
ul
24-J
ul
31-J
ul
7-A
ug
14-A
ug
21-A
ug
28-A
ug
4-S
ep
11-S
ep
18-S
ep
25-S
ep
Cum
ulat
ive
CD
D A
nom
aly
.
May - Sept 2017 US Population Weighted CDD Anomaly Plume (vs 30 Year Avg)
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong El Nino
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate El Nino
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong La Nina
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate La Nina
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Last Year
Current + 15 Day Fcst + 10 Year Average
Current + 15 Day Fcst + Forecast
61% of years warmer than Normal, 39% of years cooler than Normal when projecting end of season total using using observations to date plus weather from past years
Updated 7/6/2017 AM
Below are long-range NG storage projections based on the latest Frontier Weather 15 day and seasonal forecast. Theprojections are based on a regression of weekly degree day totals to weekly storage numbers. No price/storage levelproduction response is built in, so future projections are based on unchanging supply and non-weather relateddemand trends. Circled areas on graphs denote observed or forecast values at those points in time.
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
Long Range NG Storage Projections
4047
3648
2049
1287Storage Surplus
Storage Deficit
599395
-79
-623-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
7/1/
2016
7/29
/201
6
8/26
/201
6
9/23
/201
6
10/2
1/20
16
11/1
8/20
16
12/1
6/20
16
1/13
/201
7
2/10
/201
7
3/10
/201
7
4/7/
2017
5/5/
2017
6/2/
2017
6/30
/201
7
7/28
/201
7
8/25
/201
7
9/22
/201
7
10/2
0/20
17
11/1
7/20
17
12/1
5/20
17
1/12
/201
8
2/9/
2018
Thi
s Y
ear
-5-
Yea
r A
vg in
BC
F
Sto
rage
in B
illio
n C
ubic
Fee
t
Observed (red line) and 8 Month Forecast (blue line) Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range (grey band) and Year Minus 5-Year Storage Anomaly (Values = Frontier Forecast) Orange
line uses 5 Year Avg Storage Builds/Draws as Forecast
Storage Surplus
Storage Deficit
538
-431
-1027-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
7/1/
2016
7/29
/201
6
8/26
/201
6
9/23
/201
6
10/2
1/20
16
11/1
8/20
16
12/1
6/20
16
1/13
/201
7
2/10
/201
7
3/10
/201
7
4/7/
2017
5/5/
2017
6/2/
2017
6/30
/201
7
7/28
/201
7
8/25
/201
7
9/22
/201
7
10/2
0/20
17
11/1
7/20
17
12/1
5/20
17
1/12
/201
8
2/9/
2018
This Year Minus Last Year Storage Anomaly
Power Region Temperature and Degree Day Summary 11
* 1WA refers to the forecast value from one week ago. 20YA Anom is the DD departure from the 20 year average.
AvgAnomAvg AvgAvgAnom
30Yr
7462
85.1 65.9 75.5 0 029
Fcst
61
30YrAvg
0 -35 61 64Avg
10Yr 20YrFcst
00 0
01WA*
20YA Prev20Yr
79.3 58.2
---0
Avg Avg Avg 20YA 10Yr
29137
6506310
68.7 33HDDs
Fcst 10YrAvg Avg 20YATotalHigh Low Avg
30Yr20YrFcstAvgFcst
0 310Yr20Yr 30Yr 20YA PrevTotal
066
84.9 64.6 74.7
360Anom
8180.3 59.0 69.6 33
0 0 982
0 6574
0
8885.377 ---
0
AvgFcst 1WA*
7669 73
Avg AvgLow
68.2 76.8 00 03 0 0 -37
Avg
80Avg Avg Avg 20YA 10Yr
84 770 0 38086.1 66.9 76.5 0 0
Avg94.6 59.4 77.0 -4 4
Fcst 1WA* Avg AvgAvg Avg AnomCDDs30Yr
High Low Avg Anom AvgPrev Fcst 10Yr 20Yr20Yr 30Yr 20YATotal
5296.0 61.6 78.8 0 0
92 122 76 601 1 309045
94.6 61.1 77.9 -1 184 85 48 484 4 3684
00
30Yr
High Low Avg Anom AvgPrev Fcst 10Yr 20Yr20Yr 30Yr 20YATotal
66Avg Avg Avg 20YA 10Yr
100 --- 74 690 1 28970Prev
11790.8 74.1 82.4 0 0
99 96 130 1190 0 -2099Avg
87.1 71.2 79.1 0 0Fcst 1WA* Avg AvgAvg Avg AnomCDDs
0Fcst
0
125Avg Avg Avg 20YA 10Yr
116 --- 129 1260 0 -4122121
91.0 73.9 82.4 0 0121 178 124 1220 0 01220
00
Avg90.5 73.5 82.0 0 0
Fcst 1WA* Avg AvgAvg Avg AnomCDDs30Yr
High Low Avg Anom AvgPrev Fcst 10Yr 20Yr20Yr 30Yr 20YATotal
FcstPrev Fcst
HDDs
13495.9 75.3 85.6 0 0
140 50 134 1320 0 7139130
94.3 75.3 84.8 0 0119 119 142 1320 0 -131190
000
30Yr
High Low Avg Anom AvgPrev Fcst 10Yr 20Yr20Yr 30Yr 20YATotal
140Avg Avg Avg 20YA 10Yr
145 --- 147 1440 0 1145Prev
0Total
0
6995.9 63.6 79.7 0 0
60 58 82 702 2 -1060Avg
88.0 57.8 72.9 2 0Fcst 1WA* Avg AvgAvg Avg AnomCDDsFcst
4HDDs
4
77Avg Avg Avg 20YA 10Yr
108 --- 79 820 0 2610878
94.7 66.1 80.4 0 0102 80 82 800 1 2310300
0
Avg90.8 76.5 83.7 0 0
Fcst 1WA* Avg AvgAvg Avg AnomCDDs30Yr
High Low Avg Anom AvgPrev Fcst 10Yr 20Yr20Yr 30Yr 20YATotalTotal
HDDs
12591.4 76.8 84.1 0 0
140 68 124 1240 0 17141121
92.9 77.4 85.2 0 0131 132 127 1210 0 10131
00
30Yr
High Low Avg Anom AvgPrev Fcst 10Yr 20Yr20Yr 30Yr 20YATotal
127Avg Avg Avg 20YA 10Yr
131 --- 130 1260 0 71340Total
149106.8 79.7 93.3 0 0
196 196 174 1600 1 37196Avg
106.1 80.0 93.1 0 0Fcst 1WA* Avg AvgAvg Avg AnomCDDsHDDs
0
211 --- 171 1680 0 39207159
106.6 82.3 94.5 0 0198 99 178 1670 0 31198
161
Fcst 1WA* Avg AvgAvg Avg AnomCDDs40
High Low Avg Anom AvgPrev
FcstAvg Avg Avg Fcst 10Yr 20Yr20Yr 30Yr 20YATotal20YA 10Yr
2211 12 143682.6 57.1 69.9 -9 74183.2 57.4 70.2 -10 21 2014 14 214112
82.5 57.6 70.0 -5Avg Avg Avg 20YA Fcst
---010Yr20YATotal Prev
037 80 32
Anom
TotalHDDs
Prev 30Yr10YrAvg AvgFcst 1WA*
Fri 07/07/2017
Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
Fri 06/30/2017
FRCCWeek Ending
Fri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017
Total
300
Prev
42
36 --- 355 6
AvgAvg51
30Yr
2728
20 18 53 520
---71 681 2 83
61
Fcst 1WA* AvgAnomCDDs
735420Yr
85.0 64.0 74.5 -2 65 80 6431
Fri 07/14/2017
0 1
HDDs
Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
MeadWeek Ending
Cinergy
Week EndingFri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
ErcotWeek Ending
Fri 06/30/2017
63
7173Anom
71
35
----1 05859
1819
Avg30Yr
20Yr
0
42
Fcst
85.4 64.9 75.2 58
Mid ColumbiaWeek Ending
Fri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
MRO/MAPP
4 -32202 9682 375.7
AvgHigh55.6 65.7 1215
Week EndingFri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017
Low Avg
1
Fri 07/14/2017
High Avg
Avg
Fri 07/14/2017Fri 07/07/2017Fri 06/30/2017Week Ending
Four CornersWeek Ending
Fri 06/30/2017
Fri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
Fri 07/14/2017
00
Total
Fri 07/14/2017Entergy
0
Fcst1WA*
Prev
COBWeek Ending
Fri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017
0
15
---Fcst
1WA*4
---Fcst
1WA*0
Fcst
CDDs
Fcst
30---0
1WA*00
15
1WA*30---
Total
0
---Fcst
1WA*
2
Fcst1WA*
0---
0
Fcst1WA*
00
000
Prev
00
PrevFcst
0PrevFcst
4
---
00---
0
1WA*
PrevFcst
0
0TotalHDDs
0TotalHDDs
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
Avg
70
Updated 7/6/2017 AM
36
TotalCDDs
29
68
75HDDs
AEP Dayton HubWeek Ending
Power Region Temperature & Degree Day Summary
Power Region Temperature and Degree Day Summary 11
* 1WA refers to the forecast value from one week ago. 20YA Anom is the DD departure from the 20 year average.
20Yr
Power Region Temperature & Degree Day Summary
Fcst10Yr
Updated 7/6/2017 AM
20Yr20YA Fcst 10Yr20YATotal30Yr PrevLow Avg Anom Avg
Avg Avg Avg 30Yr
Avg1WA*4941 -5480.8 60.7 70.7 -1 3 21 3
AvgAvgFcst 1WA* Avg43 4954
20Yr 30Yr20Yr 30Yr 20YA 10Yr5761 --- 63 531
61 194 61621 2 -591
Total
5359
56
67
10Yr1 1 -5354
Avg Avg82.4 63.0 72.7
62 63-6268 135 59 59 61-5964
58 55-58Fcst 1WA* Avg Avg AvgAnom
0
---
Prev Fcst
27
-1
Avg AnomCDDs
1
83.5 64.3 73.9 -10
High
20YAHigh Low Avg
1 1 23377.7 57.6
Fri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017
67.7Fri 06/30/2017Avg Avg Avg
Week EndingNEPOOL
Northern IllinoisWeek Ending CDDs
1 0 1 640 00 ---84.2 64.0 74.2Fri 07/14/20172 1 1 72-1 00 085.3 65.1 75.2Fri 07/07/2017
20Yr 30Yr
High Low Avg Anom
20YA Prev Fcst 10Yr10Yr 20Yr 30Yr Total20YA PrevTotal FcstAvg Avg Avg
-28 011 30
11 11 11 22Avg Avg1WA* Avg28 2724 3075.5 56.9 66.3 2
Anom FcstAvg Avg Avg CDDs
-31 3330Yr TotalPrev
--- 10 3229 2881 3331 31--- 3079.1 56.9 68.0 2
-29 298 129 9
79.9 55.6 67.7 -11111
Anom Fcst1 57
Fcst3
Avg CDDs20Yr 30YrFcst 10YrAvg Avg1WA* AvgHigh Low Avg Anom
20YA Prev10Yr 20YrAvg Avg
Avg Avg Avg 20YA
-76 760 730
0 1 8075 6856 7276 7265 7984.5 68.5 76.5 -1
-75 00 00 1
80.6 65.0 72.8 21
3
20YA PrevAvg CDDs
PrevFcst
30Yr Total74 77--- 83
20Yr 30YrFcst 10YrAvg Avg Avg 20YA-74 760 0
10Yr 20Yr83.5 67.2 75.4 0
Total
-204 00 229
00
0 231Avg Avg1WA* Avg204 203229 215110.5 85.5 98.0 0
Anom FcstAvg Avg0 0
High Low Avg AnomHDDs0
-205 22630Yr Total
0Prev
0 225201 200100 207205 201--- 208107.9 86.4 97.2 0
-201 2280 00 0
110.6 84.9 97.7 0 0---
Anom Fcst0 602
Fcst Avg CDDs20Yr 30YrFcst 10YrAvg Avg1WA* AvgHigh Low Avg Anom
20YA Prev10Yr 20YrAvg Avg
Avg Avg Avg 20YA Fcst1WA*
-77 910 80
00
0 9275 7157 7477 7791 8086.5 69.7 78.1 0
-75 00 00 0
83.5 63.1 73.3 2
20YA PrevAvg CDDs
Prev 10Yr Total75 81--- 86
20Yr 30YrFcst 10YrAvg Avg Avg 20YA-75 810 0
20Yr 30Yr85.7 67.2 76.4 0 ---
Fcst
-105 00 117
0 0Avg Avg1WA* Avg105 10588 11786.5 69.4 77.9 0
Anom FcstAvg Avg0 91
High Low Avg Anom
0
-113 11530Yr TotalFcst
0 119107 10865 107113 116--- 11791.3 72.7 82.0 0
-107 1170 00 0
91.3 72.2 81.7 0 00
Anom Fcst0 57
1WA*0
Avg CDDs20Yr 30YrFcst 10YrAvg Avg1WA* AvgHigh Low Avg Anom
20YA Prev10Yr 20YrAvg Avg
Avg Avg Avg 20YATotalHDDs
-55 660 90
0 048 5057 5055 5692 5685.3 64.2 74.7 0
-48 00 00 68
83.0 63.4 73.2 0
60 60--- 5920Yr 30YrFcst 10YrAvg Avg Avg 20YA
-60 910 030Yr Total
87.9 67.9 77.9 0
84.4 64.9 74.6 0Anom FcstAvg Avg
0 0High Low Avg Anom
20YA PrevAvg CDDs
10Yr 20Yr
79.3 0-97 0
0 10000 68
Avg Avg1WA* Avg97 9465 106
0--- 1080 105
99 99112 97104 105-104 10389.7 70.5 80.1 0
-99 1010 00 0
87.8 70.7
Palo VerdeWeek Ending
Fri 06/30/2017
NYISOWeek Ending
Fri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017
Fcst1WA*
3
NP15
Anom
Fri 07/14/2017Avg
Week EndingFri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
117
0PrevFcst
4
Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
PrevFcst
10
Fri 07/14/2017TVA
Week EndingFri 06/30/2017
SP15Week Ending
Fri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017
Week EndingFri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
Fri 06/30/2017Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
Southern
Fri 07/07/2017Fri 07/14/2017
PJM WestWeek Ending
TotalHDDs
0
HDDs13
Fri 07/14/2017
TotalHDDs
100
TotalHDDs
4
0PrevFcst
0
PrevFcst
00
Fcst13
200
Total
00
TotalHDDs
0
0
1WA*05---
2
0
HDDs000
---Fcst
1WA*0
0
0---
Fcst
1WA*131
1WA*4
0TotalHDDs
0
00
0
Fcst
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
0---
---Fcst
1WA*0
Power Region Temperature and Degree Day Summary
Updated 7/6/2017 AM
© 2017 WDT, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.
SP
15
ER
CO
TE
NT
ER
GY
PJM
MID
CO
LUM
BIA
Power Region Degree Day Graphs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average HDDs
\
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average HDDs
0
50
100
150
200
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average CDDs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average CDDs
0
10
20
30
40
50
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average HDDs
\
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average HDDs
0
50
100
150
200
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average CDDs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average CDDs
-50
0
50
100
150
200
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average HDDs
0
1
2
3
4
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average HDDs
0
50
100
150
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average CDDs
0
5
10
15
20
25
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average CDDs
0
50
100
150
200
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average HDDs
0
24
6
8
10
12
14
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average HDDs
0
10
2030
40
50
60
70
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average CDDs
0
5
10
15
20
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average CDDs
0
20
40
60
80
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average HDDs
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average HDDs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7
Weekly Average CDDs
0
5
10
15
20
25
6/16 6/21 6/26 7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16
Daily Average CDDs
Source file locations for data in various degree day tables in report
The HR in the file name designates that it is derived from our new higher resolution population weighted data set.
Map of PADD Regions
http://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/HR_FW_USPopulationWeightedData.csvhttp://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/USPopWeightedbyYearDDs.txthttp://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/HR_FW_1996_Forecast_NG_Elec_Combo_HDDs.csvCombination of number 1 for CDDs and number 3 for HDDs.http://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/USGasWeightedbyYearDDs.txthttp://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/HR_FW_1996_Forecast_FuelOil_Propane_HDDs.csvhttp://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/HR_FW_1996_Forecast_FuelOil_Propane_HDDs_byPadd.csvhttp://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/HR_FW_CensusRegionPopulationWeightedData_alt.csv
The FW in the file named disignates that population/gas weights for all years of data are fixed to 2010 values. A set of files with the same name, but without the "_FW" in the file name is also available, and in those files the weights vary by year. The fixed weights are used in this report to allow for better comparison to values from previous years since differences in values are only due to differences in weather and not differences in population patterns as well.
The main difference between the new data files used in this report and the old data files used in the previous version of the report is that the U.S. and regional degree day totals are derived from 230 cities in the new data files versus 120 cities in the old files. This difference is more apparent on the regional level than the national level.
http://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/HR_FW_CensusSubRegionPopulationWeightedData_alt.csvhttp://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/HR_FW_EIARegionPopulationWeightedData_alt.csvhttp://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/L15N15PowerRegionAverages.txt
Above data files are password protected and only available to direct Frontier Weather subscribers.
http://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/OilweightedHDDs.txt and OWlast10andforecast.txthttp://www.frontierweather.com/degreedays/HR_FW_EIAFiveRegionPopulationWeightedData_alt.csv
123456789
10111213
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U.S. Heating and Cooling Degree Day SummaryUpdated 7/6/2017 AM