U.S. Industry and Economic OutlookU.S. Industry and Economic OutlookSome Questions to PonderSome Questions to Ponder

Michael P. NiemiraMichael P. NiemiraVice President, Chief Economist & Director of Research

International Council of Shopping Centers1221 Avenue of the Americas, 41st Floor

New York, New York 10020-1099mniemira@icsc.org

A Presentation for the 2013 ICSC-CSCA Canadian Research Conference

May 14, 2013May 14, 2013

International Council of Shopping CentersInternational Council of Shopping Centers

Founded in 1957, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is the global trade association of the shopping-center industry. With over 60,000 members in the U.S., Canada and more than 80 other countries, its members include shopping-center owners, developers, managers, marketing specialists, investors, lenders, retailers and other professionals as well as academics and public officials. As the global industry trade association, ICSC links with more than 25 national and regional shopping center councils throughout the world.

HighlightsHighlightsHighlightsHighlights

HowHow’’s Business in the U.S. Shoppings Business in the U.S. Shopping--Center Industry?Center Industry?• Risk and Reward• Neighborhood Centers, Power Centers Doing Well • Watch Out for Expenses

HowHow’’s the U.S. Economy?s the U.S. Economy?• What Was Learned from the 2007-2009 Recession?• The Wealth Effect Improves• Have Consumer Services Come Alive?• What is Potential Growth?• ICSC Forecast

U.S. ShoppingU.S. Shopping--Center Center

CRE Fundamentals Healthy forCRE Fundamentals Healthy for

Both Public and PrivatelyBoth Public and Privately--Held SectorsHeld Sectors

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

INDUSTRIAL/ OFFICERETAILRESIDENTIAL (MULTI-FAMILY)DIVERSIFIEDHEALTHCARELODGING / RESORTSSELF STORAGE

R EIT Total R eturns2013 YTD AVER AGE (Through April 30, 2013)

Inde

x (1

993=

100)

Source: NAREIT

Retail

U.S. Retail REIT Returns Have Fully Recovered from RecessionU.S. Retail REIT Returns Have Fully Recovered from Recession

What Do We Know About U.S. ShoppingWhat Do We Know About U.S. Shopping--Center Risk?Center Risk?

Higher Return and Higher RiskHigher Return and Higher Risk

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.8

MEAN

STD

DEV

U.S. Dollars Per Quarter

NOI Return vs. Risk

Sta

ndar

d D

evia

tion

Super RegionalRegional

Neighborhood

Period

2000/Q1-2013/Q1

CommunityPower

•• As would be expected, higher As would be expected, higher returns are associated with returns are associated with higher risk and vice versa.higher risk and vice versa.

•• Power and neighborhood Power and neighborhood centers have the lowest risk centers have the lowest risk profile.profile.

•• Risk/reward profile explained Risk/reward profile explained shift to shift to ““less riskyless risky”” center center investment during the last investment during the last recession and a shift to the more recession and a shift to the more risky in the aftermath of risky in the aftermath of recession. recession.

Source: NCREIF; ICSC Research.

April 30, 2013Number of Total Return (%) Dividend

Sector Constituents 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 April 2013: YTD Yield (%)

FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs 133 35.06 -15.69 -37.73 27.99 27.95 8.28 19.70 6.33 14.94 3.13FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs 128 35.06 -15.69 -37.73 27.99 27.96 8.29 18.06 6.68 15.42 3.28

Industrial/Office 30 39.39 -14.86 -50.28 29.17 17.04 -1.47 19.12 5.18 15.81 3.17Industrial 7 28.92 0.38 -67.47 12.17 18.89 -5.16 31.28 5.10 17.28 2.78Office 18 45.22 -18.96 -41.07 35.55 18.41 -0.76 14.15 5.19 13.43 3.17Mixed 5 28.28 -33.09 -33.99 34.90 8.75 2.67 20.81 5.32 24.94 3.94

Retail 31 29.02 -15.77 -48.36 27.17 33.41 12.20 26.74 9.81 17.34 2.99Shopping Centers 18 34.87 -17.68 -38.84 -1.66 30.78 -0.73 25.02 6.10 19.47 3.27Regional Malls 8 23.83 -15.85 -60.60 62.99 34.64 22.00 28.21 11.47 14.40 2.66Free Standing 5 30.74 -0.43 -15.09 25.93 37.37 0.43 22.46 11.62 28.75 4.10

Residential 18 38.93 -25.21 -24.89 30.82 46.01 15.37 6.94 3.75 4.77 3.24Apartments 15 6.93 3.67 3.79 3.22Manufactured Homes 3 7.10 5.09 23.32 3.45

Diversified 19 38.03 -22.29 -28.25 17.02 23.75 2.82 12.20 4.64 13.83 3.83

Lodging/Resorts 15 28.16 -22.16 -59.67 67.19 42.77 -14.31 12.53 3.34 17.51 2.79

Health Care 11 44.55 2.13 -11.98 24.62 19.20 13.63 20.35 7.93 23.77 4.04

Self Storage 4 40.94 -24.82 5.05 8.37 29.29 35.22 19.94 8.80 15.87 2.88

Timber 4 --- --- --- --- --- 7.65 37.05 -1.61 13.62 2.66

Infrastructure 1 --- --- --- --- --- --- 29.91 9.56 9.06 1.24

FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs 29 19.32 -42.35 -31.31 24.63 22.60 -2.42 19.89 0.83 18.82 10.79Home Financing 18 14.75 -38.23 -20.02 28.19 21.02 -0.87 16.38 0.67 17.38 11.82Commercial Financing 11 30.31 -48.79 -74.84 -40.99 41.99 -11.34 42.98 1.37 25.40 6.79

Source: FTSETM, NAREIT®.

Investment Performance by Property Sector and SubsectorU.S. Retail REIT Total Returns Up 17.34% YTD in 2013U.S. Retail REIT Total Returns Up 17.34% YTD in 2013

U.S. Shopping‐Center Industry PerformanceU.S. Dollars Per Square Foot (SF), Unless Otherwise Noted

ALL SHOPPING CENTERS ‐ NATIONAL ANNUAL QUARTERLY 

INCOME AND EXPENSES ($/SF) 2010 2011 2012 2012‐04 2013‐01

Total Operating Income $24.68 $23.81 $24.36 $6.26 $6.36

% Change from Prior Year 2.9 ‐3.5 2.3 3.6 5.5

Total Operating Expenses $8.44 $8.13 $8.12 $2.10 $2.12

% Change from Prior Year 5.5 ‐3.7 ‐0.1 2.4 5.5

Net Operating Income $16.24 $15.68 $16.24 $4.16 $4.24

% Change from Prior Year 1.6 ‐3.4 3.6 4.3 5.5

ADDENDUM

Occupancy Rate (%, End of Period) 89 90 91 91 90

Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries

U.S. ShoppingU.S. Shopping--Center NOI Growth Strong in Q1Center NOI Growth Strong in Q1But ExpenseBut Expense--Pressures Building Pressures Building

U.S. Shopping‐Center Industry Performance By Center TypeU.S. Dollars Per Square Foot (SF), Unless Otherwise Noted

SELECTED SHOPPING CENTERS SEGMENTS – NATIONAL

ANNUAL QUARTERLY

NET OPERATING INCOME ($/SF) 2010 2011 2012 2012‐04 2013‐01

Neighborhood Centers $12.80 $13.14 $14.18 $3.51 $3.75

% Change from Prior Year ‐0.8 2.7 7.9 3.5 6.8

Community Centers $14.03 $12.20 $12.28 $3.04 $3.30

% Change from Prior Year ‐2.4 ‐13.0 0.7 3.8 5.1

Power Centers $10.42 $10.85 $11.84 $3.06 $3.06

% Change from Prior Year 0.2 4.1 9.1 7.7 7.7

Regional Malls $21.32 $20.50 $19.84 $5.22 $5.21

% Change from Prior Year ‐3.7 ‐3.8 ‐3.2 0.0 3.2

Super‐Regional Malls $21.56 $21.88 $22.40 $5.88 $5.54

% Change from Prior Year 9.2 1.5 2.4 4.6 2.0Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries

$2.80

$3.20

$3.60

$4.00

$4.40

$4.80

$2.80

$3.20

$3.60

$4.00

$4.40

$4.80

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

U.S. Shopping-Center Net Operating IncomeU

.S. D

olla

rs P

er Q

uarte

r

Trend Projection (Shaded Area) Very Favorable for 2013Q2-2015Q4But There Are Fundamentals that Could Alter This Projection

Will NOI Break Previous Will NOI Break Previous High This Year? High This Year? Marker to WatchMarker to Watch

CRE Borrowing and Lending Much CRE Borrowing and Lending Much ImprovedImproved

“A moderate net fraction of domestic respondents to the April survey reported that they had eased standards on CRE loans over the previous three months. Meanwhile, foreign respondents reported that standards were about unchanged. In addition, significant net fractions of domestic banks reported that demand for CRE loans had strengthened, while a moderate net fraction of foreign respondents also reported having experienced stronger demand for such loans.”

141312111009080706050403020100999897969594939291

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

Net P

erce

ntag

e Net Percentage

Source: Senior Loan Officers Survey, Federal Reserve Board.

Net Percentage of U.S. BankersTightening Standards for Commercial Real Estate Loans

Easiest CRE Lending Standards Since 2005

Modest Easing in Q2 2013 CRE Lending Standards, But Easiest Since 2005

““Supply of FundsSupply of Funds””

CRE Borrowing Demand Is StrongCRE Borrowing Demand Is Strong

1413121110090807060504030201009998979695

60

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-60

-80

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Per

cent

age Net P

ercentage

Source: Senior Loan Officers Survey, Federal Reserve Board.

Net Percentage of U.S. BankersReporting Stronger Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans

Commercial Real Estate Borrowing Demand Remains Strong

““Demand for FundsDemand for Funds””

20132013--14 U.S. Outlook and 14 U.S. Outlook and Understanding the Understanding the New New

DynamicDynamic

A Brief RecapA Brief Recap……The 2007The 2007--2009 Recession Was NOT a 2009 Recession Was NOT a ““Great RecessionGreat Recession”” BUT a LONG ONEBUT a LONG ONE……Longest in Longest in

Postwar History (18 Months)Postwar History (18 Months)

-2.31

-3.48

-7.25

-4.42

-0.31

-3.15

-4.39-3.77

-2.68

0.00

-3.70

194804195302

195703196002

196904197304

198001198103

199003200101

200704

Recessions Beginning (in Quarters)

-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101

% C

hang

e (A

nnua

l Rat

e)

U.S. Recessions: Average Contractions Per QuarterPost-War II Experience, Real GDP with Latest 2007-2009 Cycle

If you only focus on depth, If you only focus on depth, you miss the dynamicyou miss the dynamic……

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-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

1949:Q4 1954:Q21958:Q2 1961:Q11970:Q4 1975:Q11980:Q3 1982:Q41991:Q1 2001:Q42009:Q2

Quarters from Bus iness Cyc le Trough(Trough Denoted by 0)

U.S . Real GD P Recovery Patterns1949-2009 Recoveries

Inde

x (T

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2009 Recovery/ Expansion Slowest

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Average Housing Prices

Total Home Prices: Sales-Weighted Average of New and Existing Prices OFHEO Home Price Index (Quarterly )

Strong Rebound in Housing Prices Adding to

“Wealth Effect”

131211100908070605040302010099989796959493929190898887868584838281807978777675

9.0

8.5

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Ratio

Ratio

Average Home Price (New and Existing)as Ratio to Disposable Personal Income Per Capita

Home Prices Divided by Per Capita Disposable Income Average

And Housing Affordability Still Very Favorable

U.S. Stock Price Rise Above Prior High in 2007U.S. Stock Price Rise Above Prior High in 2007Based on the DJIA (Weekly Data)Based on the DJIA (Weekly Data)

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-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

1949:Q4 1954:Q21958:Q2 1961:Q11970:Q4 1975:Q11980:Q3 1982:Q41991:Q1 2001:Q42009:Q2

Quarters from Business Cycle Trough(Trough Denoted by 0)

U.S. Real Consumer Spending Recovery Patterns1949-2009 Recoveries

Inde

x (T

roug

h Le

vel =

100

)

Slow Recovery Due to Slow Consumer

Spending…But Why?

131109070503019997

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AAR)

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hange (SAAR)

Note: Shaded Areas Represent Classical Business Cycle Recessions as Defined by theNational Bureau of Economic Research.

Real Personal Consumption for ServiceSharp Uptick in Q1 2013

Service Spending Zero Line

What is New for Consumer Spending?What is New for Consumer Spending?

A Major Turning Point?A Major Turning Point?

1 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) 9380.9 9403.2 9441.9 9489.3 9546.8 9582.5 9620.1 9663.9 9740 % Change 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 3.2

2 Goods 3320.3 3312.2 3323.5 3367.9 3406.6 3409.4 3439.7 3476.1 3504.2 % Change -1.0 1.4 5.5 4.7 0.3 3.6 4.3 3.3

3 Durable goods 1249.4 1242.3 1258.6 1300.1 1336.1 1335.3 1364 1408.3 1436.14 Motor vehicles and parts 355 336.6 338.1 360.1 371.2 361.8 370.5 389.8 399.75 Furnishings and durable household equipment 266.6 269.6 273.7 280.2 286 285.5 289.5 292.5 2956 Recreational goods and vehicles 490.5 501.3 514 528.5 545 554.6 569.9 585.8 598.47 Other durable goods 156.5 159.1 159.8 158.3 162.1 165.5 168 173 176.58 Nondurable goods 2075.3 2073.5 2071.4 2080.5 2088.9 2092 2098.2 2098.8 21049 Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption 682.8 686 685.9 686.4 686.4 685.4 685.9 685.7 687.210 Clothing and footwear 350 352.4 347.3 350.2 355.3 350.8 355.4 354 355.211 Gasoline and other energy goods 280.2 269.9 267.9 268.2 266.5 272 270 265.9 263.512 Other nondurable goods 768.4 775 780.3 786.2 792.9 793.5 798.2 806.2 812.413 Services 6064.8 6094 6121.1 6126 6145.9 6178.2 6186.7 6195.6 6243.7

% Change 1.9 1.8 0.3 1.3 2.1 0.6 0.6 3.114 Household consumption expenditures (for services) 5786.1 5810.1 5826.6 5834.5 5855.1 5877.6 5888.8 5898.2 5949.9

% Change 1.7 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.6 3.615 Housing and utilities 1672.4 1679.6 1686.7 1672 1662.7 1685.2 1690.6 1672.3 1689.9

% Change 1.7 1.7 -3.4 -2.2 5.5 1.3 -4.3 4.316 Health care 1478.8 1489.3 1486.2 1499.7 1513.3 1508.4 1518.4 1527 1534.9

% Change 2.9 -0.8 3.7 3.7 -1.3 2.7 2.3 2.117 Transportation services 246.9 248.6 250.4 249.7 250.6 252.4 253.4 253.8 255.9

% Change 2.8 2.9 -1.1 1.4 2.9 1.6 0.6 3.418 Recreation services 341 346.2 347.9 348.5 347.9 350.4 351 350.2 353.8

% Change 6.2 2.0 0.7 -0.7 2.9 0.7 -0.9 4.219 Food services and accommodations 559 563 566.2 572.8 579.5 581 582.9 594.2 597.9

% Change 2.9 2.3 4.7 4.8 1.0 1.3 8.0 2.520 Financial services and insurance 680.8 678.3 685.8 682.2 688.6 688.4 680 684.4 694.4

% Change -1.5 4.5 -2.1 3.8 -0.1 -4.8 2.6 6.021 Other services 807 805 803.2 809.2 811.5 811.3 812.1 815.1 822

% Change -1.0 -0.9 3.0 1.1 -0.1 0.4 1.5 3.422 Final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving ho 280.6 286.3 298.6 294.8 293.9 305.3 302.1 301.4 296.623 Gross output of nonprofit institutions 2 1002.7 1009.3 1011.6 1019.5 1029.7 1031.3 1043.1 1042.5 1041.424 Less: Receipts from sales of goods and services by nonprofit ins 722.7 724.2 716.2 726.7 737.2 729.5 743.2 743.2 745.9

2013I II III IV I II III IV ILine

2011 2012

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product, Chained Dollars[Billions of chained (2005) dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual ratesBureau of Economic AnalysisLast Revised on: April 26, 2013 - Next Release Date May 30, 2013

Largest Largest Quarterly Quarterly Increase Increase Since Q3 Since Q3

20052005

How Fast Can the U.S. Economy Really Grow?How Fast Can the U.S. Economy Really Grow?• The 20-Year Average Pace of Real GDP Growth was 2.5%.

• The 20-Year Average Pace of Real Consumer Spending Growth was 2.8%

• The 20-Year Average Pace of Real Consumer DURABLE GOODS Spending Growthwas 5.7%

• The 20-Year Average Pace of Real Consumer NONDURABLE GOODS Spending Growth was 1.6%

• The 20-Year Average Pace of Real Consumer SERVICES Spending Growth was 3.6%GROWTH RATES: GDP PCE PCE-DUR PCE-NON PCE-SERV

2011Q1 0.1 3.1 7.3 4.6 2.0Q2 2.5 1.0 -2.3 -0.3 1.9Q3 1.3 1.7 5.4 -0.4 1.8Q4 4.1 2.0 13.9 1.8 0.3

2012Q1 2.0 2.4 11.5 1.6 1.3Q2 1.3 1.5 -0.2 0.6 2.1Q3 3.1 1.6 8.9 1.2 0.6Q4 0.4 1.8 13.6 0.1 0.6

2013Q1 2.5 3.2 8.1 1.0 3.1

U.S. Economic Outlook - 2013-2014Economic Measure 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nominal GDP 13377.2 14028.7 14291.6 13973.7 14498.9 15075.7 15684.8 16241.4 17023.0 % Change 6.0 4.9 1.9 -2.2 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.5 4.8GDP Deflator 103.2 106.2 108.6 109.5 111.0 113.4 115.4 117.3 119.8 % Change 3.2 2.9 2.2 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.1Real GDP 12958.5 13206.4 13161.9 12758.0 13063.0 13299.1 13593.2 13843.4 14204.2 % Change 2.7 1.9 -0.3 -3.1 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.6Real Consumer Spending 9054.5 9262.9 9211.7 9032.6 9196.2 9428.8 9603.3 9824.8 10088.6 % Change 2.9 2.3 -0.6 -1.9 1.8 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.7Aftertax Economic Profits 1135.0 1065.2 939.4 1019.9 1329.2 1447.9 1501.3 1474.8 1544.9 % Change 8.8 -6.2 -11.8 8.6 30.3 8.9 3.7 -1.8 4.7 % Change from Prior YearPretax Corporate Proftis 1608.3 1510.7 1248.4 1342.4 1702.5 1827.0 1950.6 1916.3 2007.3 % Change from Prior Year 10.5 -6.1 -17.4 7.5 26.8 7.3 6.8 -1.8 4.7Unemployment Rate 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.6 7.4Payroll Employment 136130 137642 136849 130859 129911 131500 133737 135663 137680 Difference at Monthly Rate 176 100 -232 -469 63 167 181 148 196Industrial Production 97.6 100.0 96.6 85.7 90.6 93.6 97.0 99.4 101.6 % Change 2.2 2.5 -3.4 -11.3 5.7 3.4 3.6 2.4 2.3Housing Starts (thous.) 1812 1342 900 554 586 612 782 900 1060 % Change -12.6 -25.9 -32.9 -38.4 5.7 4.5 27.8 15.1 17.8Consumer Price Index 201.6 207.3 215.3 214.6 218.1 224.9 229.6 233.9 239.3 % Change 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.3 1.6 3.1 2.1 1.9 2.3CPI Core 205.9 210.7 215.6 219.2 221.3 225.0 229.8 234.2 239.8 % Change 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.4Federal Funds Rate 4.96 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.27 1.383-Mo. T-Bill 4.73 4.35 1.37 0.15 0.14 0.05 0.09 0.25 1.31AAA Corporate Bond Yield 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.6 3.6 3.2 3.5BAA Corporate Bond Yield 6.5 6.5 7.4 7.3 6.0 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.8Ten-Year Govt Note 4.8 4.6 3.7 3.3 3.2 2.8 1.8 2.0 2.5Source: ICSC Research (Projections).

2013 Growth Gets Early Lift from Inventory Cycle2013 Growth Gets Early Lift from Inventory Cycle——Impact Expected to Fade in Remainder of YearImpact Expected to Fade in Remainder of Year

U.S. Retail Sales Outlook(Billions of Dollars , Unless O therw ise Noted, Seasonally Adjusted)

A ctual A c tual A c tual A c tual A c tual A c tual A c tual Forecas t Forecas tCategory 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Tota l Sa le s & Food Se rvice s 4446.3 4393.9 4393.9 4080.1 4306.4 4650.8 4879.0 5123.7 5355.1 % Change from Prior Year 3.3 -1.2 -1.2 -7.1 5.5 8.0 4.9 5.0 4.5

Total Sales & Food Services Ex Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 3535.8 3611.1 3611.1 3406.3 3559.6 3823.2 3988.3 4173.0 4366.3 % Change from Prior Year 4.0 2.1 2.1 -5.7 4.5 7.4 4.3 4.6 4.6Motor Vehicle 910.5 782.8 782.8 673.8 746.8 827.6 890.8 950.8 988.8 % Change from Prior Year 0.8 -14.0 -14.0 -13.9 10.8 10.8 7.6 6.7 4.0Furniture & Home Furnishings 111.4 99.7 99.7 86.3 87.3 88.8 95.5 97.9 102.4 % Change from Prior Year -1.5 -10.5 -10.5 -13.5 1.2 1.7 7.6 2.5 4.5Electronics & Appliances 110.6 109.1 109.1 98.1 99.3 100.2 99.0 101.0 103.0 % Change from Prior Year 2.5 -1.4 -1.4 -10.0 1.2 1.0 -1.2 2.0 2.0Building Materials, Garden & Supply 320.8 303.4 303.4 266.7 267.3 279.2 294.0 302.9 316.5 % Change from Prior Year -4.3 -5.4 -5.4 -12.1 0.2 4.4 5.3 3.0 4.5Food and Beverage 548.3 568.7 568.7 569.0 582.2 614.0 633.6 660.6 683.7 % Change from Prior Year 4.3 3.7 3.7 0.1 2.3 5.5 3.2 4.3 3.5Health & Personal Care 237.2 246.1 246.1 253.2 261.1 272.9 274.6 284.2 295.6 % Change from Prior Year 6.0 3.7 3.7 2.9 3.1 4.5 0.6 3.5 4.0Gasoline Service Stations 452.1 499.8 499.8 389.9 447.1 526.7 546.4 560.1 571.3 % Change from Prior Year 7.2 10.5 10.5 -22.0 14.7 17.8 3.8 2.5 2.0Clothing and Accessory Stores 221.5 217.2 217.2 205.0 213.5 226.3 238.8 248.9 257.6 % Change from Prior Year 4.0 -1.9 -1.9 -5.7 4.2 6.0 5.5 4.3 3.5Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music 84.8 84.2 84.2 81.1 81.5 84.5 89.9 93.1 95.4 % Change from Prior Year 1.6 -0.8 -0.8 -3.7 0.5 3.7 6.4 3.5 2.5General Merchandise 579.1 596.5 596.5 592.1 608.2 630.4 632.5 638.7 654.6 % Change from Prior Year 4.5 3.0 3.0 -0.7 2.7 3.6 0.3 1.0 2.5Nonstore Retailers 308.4 319.5 319.5 310.3 339.5 393.2 438.1 501.5 571.8 % Change from Prior Year 8.2 3.6 3.6 -2.9 9.4 15.8 11.4 14.5 14.0Food Services 445.0 455.4 455.4 451.5 466.1 493.6 523.7 557.8 585.7 % Change from Prior Year 5.1 2.3 2.3 -0.9 3.2 5.9 6.1 6.5 5.0

Addendum:Total Retail Sales Less Motor Vehicle and Gasoline 3083.7 3111.3 3111.3 3016.4 3112.4 3296.5 3446.9 3612.9 3795.1 % Change from Prior Year 3.5 0.9 0.9 -3.1 3.2 5.9 4.6 4.8 5.0Shopping Center-Inclined Sales 2256.3 2267.9 2267.9 2192.9 2242.9 2340.3 2403.0 2473.2 2556.0 % Change from Prior Year 2.7 0.5 0.5 -3.3 2.3 4.3 2.7 2.9 3.3

A Slow Pace of SalesA Slow Pace of Sales

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U.S. Chain Store Sales Trends

Quarterly All-Industry Monthly Tracking (Quarterly Average)

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