us macro overview november 15, 2017 · 2017. 11. 28. · us macro overview november 15, 2017 after...
TRANSCRIPT
US Macro Overview November 15, 2017
After declining in August, real consumer spending showed a strong rebound in September. − Motor vehicle sales picked up notably in September and
October after declining through much of the year.
Business equipment spending has been strong this year, with capital spending indicators pointing to solid growth in the near-term.
Housing indicators still point to continued gradual improvement in this sector. − Multi-family starts remained appreciably below their recent
peaks, but tight market conditions continued to promote a gradual rise in single-family starts.
Payroll growth recovered in October from the effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The unemployment rate, the employment-to-population ratio, and the labor force participation rate all declined. − Growth of labor compensation remained subdued.
Monthly readings on PCE inflation indicated that core inflation continues to run somewhat below the FOMC’s longer-run objective.
In the past month, U.S. equity indexes continued to rise and are at record highs. The nominal long-term Treasury yield was roughly unchanged and the U.S. dollar rose slightly. − Oil prices moved up recently due to tensions in the Middle East
and a solid outlook for global growth.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Output growth maintains its pace in Q3 % Change – Annual Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
% Change – Annual Rate
450
500
550
600
650
700
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Wealth helping to support consumer spending 4 Quarter % Change % of Disposable Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Real Personal Consumption
(Left Axis)
Household Net Worth
(Right Axis)
Real Disposable
Income (Left Axis)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Financial Wealth Housing Wealth
Stock prices and home values lift household net worth Trillions of Dollars
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Hurricanes distorted payroll changes in September Thousands
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
-160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40
Average Monthly Change for the Year Prior Aug - Sep 2017 Change
Manufacturing
Information
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
Other Services
Financial Activities
Wholesale & Retail Trade, Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Mining & Logging
Construction
58
60
62
64
66
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Labor market conditions continue to improve Percent Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Unemployment Rate (Left Axis)
Labor Force Participation Rate
(Right Axis)
Employment to Population Ratio
(Right Axis)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Total PCE
Core PCE
FOMC Objective
Inflation still running below the FOMC’s objective
Recent rebound in motor vehicle sales Millions (SAAR) Millions (SAAR)
Source: Autodata via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
024681012141618202224
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
7/3 7/17 7/31 8/14 8/28 9/11 9/25 10/9 10/23 11/6
Price of Retail Gasoline
Hurricane impact on gasoline prices less than expected Cents Per Gallon
Source: Energy Information Administration via Haver Analytics
Hurricane Harvey: Aug 25
Sept. 1 Forecast: Sept: $3.00 Oct: $3.40
Sept. 14 Forecast: Sept: $2.90 Oct: $3.12
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
ISM Manufacturing Index
Solid growth expected for manufacturing & service sectors
46474849505152535455565758596061
46474849505152535455565758596061
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Signs pointing to strong and synchronized global growth Index Level Index Level
Source: IHS Markit and Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics
EU
US
China