us presidential elections - why did obama win in 2008 and kerry loose in 2004?

8/6/2019 US Presidential Elections - Why did Obama Win in 2008 and Kerry Loose in 2004?

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2008 US Presidential Election:

Why did Obama win in 2008 and Kerry loose in 2004?

On November 4th 2008, Barack Obama won the United States General Election and becamethe first African American to ever hold the office of President of the United States. He fought

off Republican John McCain in a the presidential election after gaining Democratic nominationin a fierce battle against Hillary Clinton. In 2004 Obamas predecessor, Republican George W.Bush, was reelected president against Democratic challenger John Kerry.

A clear factor in Obama winning the 2008 election was that after 2 terms of Republicanpresidency, the desire among Americans for change in the White House was strong. [1]Many issues, including the wars in the middle east, hurricane Katrina and national scandalsinvolving Republican party members, led many Americans to desire change. George W.Bushs two terms in office were up, leaving approval ratings of below 40% for John McCainto try build back up[2] - Obama accused him of being another Bush, agreeing with him 90%

of the time and that it was Bushs overspending in the years up to the financial crisis thatmade it worse.[3] This was not at all helpful for McCains campaign, as the people he neededto win over were the people who were moving to the Democrats due to raising disapproval ofpresident Bush. Obama knew this and so used it throughout debates, to both win over theapproval of his party but also pick up independents and republicans who couldnt vote Bush.

Obama had the momentum of change on his side, and so when he took up the nominationfor the Democratic presidential candidate, his speech was based entirely around change.This reignited his campaign, after fighting hard against Hillary for the nomination - somethingitself which could have destroyed his campaign - and many believe this carried him through

to winning the presidential title. [4]

In both elections it is clear that a solid stance on a main topic voters are concerned about isrequired for victory. In 2008, 62% of voters held the Economy as the most important issuefor the election. According to Political Scientist Larry Sabato, a struggling economy predicts awin for the non-incumbent party. [5] Obamas solid stance on the Economy boosted his pollscores, and until McCain finally settled with Joe the Plumber, his ratings were as fluctuatingas his message. [6] A presidential candidate needs strength and the ability to run with amessage that people can easily take hold of, which Obama successfully did with hisChange message that arguably won him the election.

In 2004, Bushs approval ratings had dropped since 9/11 but many Americans still supportedhim as president, especially in the time leading up to the election campaign. [7] OperationIraqi Freedom was still relatively fresh and Bush was still very popular with Republican Voters.Making his focus national security, Bush kept a strong message throughout his campaign.Kerry on the other hand flitted between over 10 major issues that lead to many would bevoters becoming disillusioned. [8] Polls showed that after from the beginning of September,once Bush had set out his main pledges in the Republican National Convention, they werebetween 3% and 9% higher spread than Kerry right up to election day. [9] Each candidatehad attacks made about them publicly, but Kerry was the one who was impacted the most,

as his service history and military service were brought into question. [10]

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History wasnt kind to McCain as only twice since the Civil War have presidents been electedfrom a party which has had 2 terms in office. Some have argued that any Democrat wouldhave won the election, as many Republican voters simply wouldnt turn up, as they couldntbring themselves to vote for Obama but couldnt stand more just like Bush. [11] However,looking at the sheer number of people who voted for McCain, this is called into question.

The intense democratic primaries between Hillary Clinton and Obama could have destroyedthe Democratic nomination before either started even campaigning. It wasnt until June 3rdthat Obama clinched the nomination with 54% of the delegates.[12] After many personalattacks between Obama and Clinton, many believed it would end their chances of winningthe election in November. When Senator Clinton officially endorsed Obama, the Democraticparty spirit was unified, and all fear of any party disunity was gone, leaving the Democrats in astrong position to compete for President. [13]

In 2004 Bush had incumbency and all the state primaries behind him leading into the battlewith John Kerry, who hadnt done badly himself in the primaries, winning all but 4 states, andover 60% of the popular vote. This strong support from the main Republican core helpedkick-start Bushs campaign. Unlike the boost the 2008 Convention gave Obama, theDemocrats 2004 Convention was a flop, and barely boosted Kerry in the polls at all, quiteunfortunate when he blitzed the primaries. His campaign never recovered. [14] With a bettershow during the convention, Kerry could have won over at least a few percentage points inthe polls which then in turn could have made Bush wobble, but a poor show made Bushsjob of reelection easier, to a point of winning by a higher margin than in 2000.

John McCain, with a history of partnership with a disliked president, had to find the balancebetween winning his own partys faithful and appealing to those in the center ground whowould decide the fate of the election. Styling himself as a maverick, he had the reputation ofdisagreeing with his party on certain issues.[15] At age 72, he was the oldest person to bestanding as a first time president. Many worried that he could easily die in office, leaving thevery inexperience and under-qualified Sarah Palin in the White House. Not over any non-hockey-moms dead body. Trying to win over the more hard-core Republicans, where he as acenter man fell down, he lost the trust of many non-Republicans, as they called into questionhis ability to choose suited people for top jobs. [16]

Obama was younger, fresher, with 2 daughters and lots of charisma. He was the firstDemocrat to win over 51% of the popular vote since 1964 and the first northern liberal to winthe White House since JFK. He ran a technically perfect ground campaign. With ChrisHughes, he devised an internet fundraising system that raised over $400m. [17]

Even though there was a lot going against McCain, Barack Obama still had to win theelection. His campaign was brilliant. He outspent, out-advertised and out organized JohnMcCain to victory. Obama raised $468,841,844 and spent $391,437,724, compared withMcCains $224,341,010 and $197,354,887. [18] This allowed him to have a much largercampaign army, headed up by many influential people in each state, allowing for a database

of vital information to be drawn up. Obama bought hours of airtime, allowing vital coverage tothe 300million voters. The more Obama campaigned, the more he seemed to raise, which

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could be put right back into more campaigning. He was an exceptional speaker, andcaptivated millions of people world wide. [19]

John Kerry wasnt a great politician. He had a mediocre Senate experience and focused fartoo much on his time in Vietnam. People knew what George Bush was about: home andabroad: Expand Liberty. [20] Many hated him, but many loved him - and these were thepeople who voted him in. Kerry on the other hand never set down on a topic. He tried tofocus on national security in debates, but was smashed down by Bush, who was the experton security. Many said he should have beased bush on the death toll in Iraq, seemingly unfairtax breaks for the wealthy and other central issues, especially during the televised debates.[21]

Voting behavior gives an indication of why Obama won in 2008, but Kerry failed to beat Bushin 2004. Traditionally, minority voters have been strong supporters of the Democratic party.Barack Obama won 95% of the black vote compared to 88% that Kerry won. Obama alsowon 13% more younger voters, which again traditionally voted for the Democrats. Althoughnot huge, when Democrats loose large numbers of these groups we see that on the whole,the Democrat will have done poorly across the whole country.[22] Another group that theDemocrats have done well with, but Kerry failed to fully understand were the Hispanics. Gorein 2000 won 67% compared with Kerrys 44%. By 2004 Bush made more of an effort,speaking Spanish and having direct family ties both helped, but with their political views beingfar more in line with Kerry, he should have done better. [23]

When comparing Kerry to Obama, Obama picked up all areas that Kerry dropped. The youthvote, which was up 12% added to the fact that there were record levels of youth turned out,

the hispanic vote, up 10%, the big cities, up 10%, and the battleground that Kerry reallyblundered - the suburbs. In the past 10 elections, whoever won the majority of the suburbshas won the election. Many swing between the left and right, depending on the economicclimate, who is standing and how well the incumbent has done. [24]

Both winners had a very strong campaign in place. Kerry didnt and just wasnt good enoughto beat Bush. He went down well with Democrats in the primaries because his campaign wasentirely anti-Bush, but when it came to the general public and the independents he needed towin, his anti-Bush campaign didnt go down well with voters. The US people knew whatBush was about, and didnt need telling again - this was Kerrys main mistake. Obama, on

the other hand, was something fresh and something the US public wanted. The world joinedwith the United States and added momentum and drive behind Barack Obama and his racefor the White House. His internet campaign, raising millions of dollars, allowed him tooutspent McCain 4 to 1 overall, and in key states such as Indiana as high as 7 to 1. Most ofthis was spent on advertisements and outmuscling McCain on the ground, with a veryprofessional and well ordered team. Mr. Obama's victory may show the enduring truth of theold Chicago Golden Rule: He who has the gold rules. [25]

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Bibliography1. Singh, R., The 2008 US Presidential Election. Politics Review, February 2009.2. UniversityOfMinnesota. Historical Bush Approval Ratings. Sept 2008; Available from:

http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm.3. CNNPoliticalThinker, Fact Check: Does McCain almost always agree with Bush?

September 26th, 2008.4. Obama, B., Change We Can Believe In, in Democratic National Convention AcceptanceSpeech. August 28th, 2008.

5. Schifferes, S. Who voted for Obama? BBC News Nov 5th 2008; Available from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7709852.stm.

6. Foxnews.Joe the Plumber Represents Hopes, Dreams and Political Football. October16th 2008; Available from: http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/16/joe-plumber-represents-hopes-dreams-political-football/.

7. Johnston, L., Bush Jumpstarts '04 Fundraising, in CBS News. May 24, 2004.8. Roberts, J. Kerry's Top Ten Flip-Flops. Sept. 29, 2004; Available from: http://

www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/29/politics/main646435.shtml.

9. RealClearPolitics.2004 Presidential Race Polls. 2004; Available from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html.

10. SwiftVetsAndPOWsForTruth. Letter to John Kerry. 2004; Available from: http://horse.he.net/~swiftpow/article.php?story=20040629220813790.

11. Bennett, A.J., Elections and Voting - Why Obama Won in 2008, in US Government AndPolitics, P. Allan, Editor. 2009, Hodder Education.

12. CBSNews.2008 Primary Results. June 2008; Available from: http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/index.shtml.

13. Hass, C. Senator Clinton Endorses Barack Obama. Jun 7, 2008; Available from: http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/stateupdates/gG5VTS.

14. Hawkins, J. Why Kerry Lost the Election. 2005; Available from: http://www.rightwingnews.com/john/whykerrylost.php.15. Nowicki, D., McCain Profile: McCain becomes the 'maverick'. John McCain Report, Mar

1. 2008.16. Cohen, J., Perceptions of Palin Grow Increasingly Negative, in The Washington Post.

October 25th 2008.17. Lister, R. Why Barack Obama Won. BBC News 5th Nov 2008; Available from: http://

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7704360.stm.18. NYTimes. Election 2008: The Candidates. The New York Times 2008; Available from:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/candidates/obama-mccain.html.19. NewYorkObserver, What Makes Obama a Good Speaker? . February 13, 2008.20. Suellentrop, C. Why Kerry Lost - He was good. Bush was better. . The Washington Post

Nov 2004; Available from: http://www.slate.com/id/2109145/.21. SocialistWorker.org. Why John Kerry Lost. Nov 2004; Available from: http://

socialistworker.org/2004-2/519/519_01_KerryLost.shtml.

22. Hammerschlag, M. How Kerry Lost. Hammernews.com Feb 27th, 2005; Available from:http://hammernews.com/howkerry.htm.

23. Trimnell, E. President Bush and the Spanish language. Feb 20, 2007 Available from:http://www.edwardtrimnell.com/bush_spanish.htm.

24. Dahl, M. Youth vote may have been key in Obama's win. December 2008; Available from:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27525497/.

25. Rove, K., McCain Couldn't Compete With Obama's Money. Wall Street Journal, Dec 4,2008.

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us presidential elections - why did obama win in 2008 and kerry loose in 2004?

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