Tinker, 2014

Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology

The University of Texas at Austin, Austin

Oilfield Breakfast Forum October, 2014

U.S. Shale Gas in 2030

Tinker, 2014

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

BC

F/D

ay

Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia

Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific

Global Natural Gas Production

115 Tcfy

Source: BP Statistical Review 2012

Tinker, 2014

0 3,000 6,000 12,000 9,000 15,000 30,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000

Resources (TcF)

Pro

du

cti

on

co

st

(2008

$/M

btu

)

LNG

Sour

Arc

tic

De

ep

Wa

ter

Shale C

oa

l B

ed

M

eth

an

e

Pro

du

ce

d

Co

nv

en

tio

na

l

Tight

15

10

5

0

~5,600

Tcf

Global Natural Gas

Resources v. Cost

QAe980

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)

Global Consumption

115 Tcfy

Tinker, 2014

5

10

15

20

25

30

Mark

ete

d P

rod

ucti

on

(Tcf)

0 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Pro

ved

Reserv

es (T

cf)

U.S. Natural Gas Production and Reserves

Data: BP World Energy 2012

End-of-Year

U.S. Proved Reserves

Annual

U.S. Production

Tinker, 2014

U.S. Natural Gas Production (TcF)

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/about_shale_gas.cfm

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Shale gas

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Non-associatedoffshoreAlaska

Associated with oil

Non-associatedonshore

14 TcF

9 TcF

23 TcF

Tinker, 2014

Unconventional Resource Plays

QAei2915

Utica

HilliardBaxterMancos-Niobrara

Cody

Heath Fm

Hermosa

Mancos

Lewis

Niobrara Fm

Mowry

Monterey- T emblor Pierre- Niobrara

Monterey

Manning Canyon

Kreyenhagen

Gothic-Hovenweep

Miocene

Miocene-Oligocene

Eocene

Cenozoic

Cretaceous

Jurassic

T rassic

Mesozoic

Permian

Pennsylvanian

Mississippian-Penn

Mississippian-Devonian

Devonian

Ordovician

Mississippian Cambrian

Paleozoic

T ight sands

Basins

Utica

Marcellus

Bakken

Cline

W oodford

Bend

W olfcamp

Eagle Ford

New Albany

Niobrara Fm

Excello-Mulky

Fayetteville

Niobrara- Mowry

Gammon

(Midland)

Pearsall

W oodford-Caney

Chattanooga

Utica- Collingwood

Antrim

Antrim

Antrim

T uscaloosa

Haynesville

Floyd-Neal

Conasauga

Floyd-Chattanooga

Chattanooga

Barnett

A valon-Bone Spring W olfberry

W olfcamp (Delaware)

Barnett- W oodford

Modified from: EIA and National Geographic

Tinker, 2014

Unconventional Resource Plays

Miocene

Miocene-Oligocene

Eocene

Cenozoic

Cretaceous

Jurassic

T rassic

Mesozoic

Permian

Pennsylvanian

Mississippian-Penn

Mississippian-Devonian

Devonian

Ordovician

Mississippian Cambrian

Paleozoic

T ight sands

Basins

Marcellus

Fayetteville

Haynesville

Barnett

Bakken

Eagle Ford

Permian

Basin

Modified from: EIA and National Geographic

Tinker, 2014

Bureau of Economic Geology

U.S. Shale Gas Integrated Study

What is the total resource base in place?

What portion is technically recoverable?

What potion is economically recoverable?

What is the long-term production outlook?

BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project

Tinker, 2014

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

0.040

0.045

0.050

29 34 39 44 49 55 60 65 70

Re

lati

ve

Fre

qu

en

cy

Cumulative Production (Tcf)

35 Tcf

56 Tcf

OGIP 444 TcF

Browning, J. et al. 2013. SPE Econ & Mgmt

Barnett Monte Carlo Production Distribution

Tinker, 2014

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

10 12 14 17 19 21 23 26 28

Re

lati

ve

Fre

qu

en

cy

Cumulative Production (Tcf)

Fayetteville Monte Carlo Production Distribution

13 Tcf 23 Tcf

OGIP 80 TcF

BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project

Tinker, 2014

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

14 24 33 43 52 62 72 81

Re

lati

ve

Fre

qu

en

cy

Cumulative Production (Tcf)

24 Tcf 62 Tcf

Haynesville Monte Carlo Production Distribution

OGIP 489 TcF

BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project

Tinker, 2014

Model: Rice University, Medlock, 2012

EIA

Forecast vs. Actual

Tinker, 2014

Subsurface Nanosensing

Tinker, 2014

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

10

00

s B

bl

Da

y

Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia

Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific

Global Oil Production

Source: BP Statistical Review 2012

30.5 BBY

Tinker, 2014

Long-Term Oil Supply Resources and Cost

0 2000 4000 10,000 6000 8000

140

20

0

Resources (billion barrels)

Pro

du

cti

on

co

st

(2

00

8 $

)

Coal

to

liquids

Gas

to

liquids

Oil shales

Shale oil

Pro-

duced MENA

Other conventional

oil

Deepwater and

ultra-deepwater

40

60

80

100

120

Heavy

oil

&

bitumen

EOR

Arctic

CO2 EOR

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)

~1,300

Bbo

Global Consumption

31 Bby

Tinker, 2014

Advanced Energy Consortium

• Founded in 2008, the AEC membership now comprises 8 of the largest international oil and gas production and service companies.

• The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin serves as the managing organization for the AEC and maintains offices in Austin and Houston.

Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium

Tinker, 2014

AEC Research Portfolio

1) MOBILITY

4) MICRO-FABRICATED

SENSORS

3) NANOMATERIAL

SENSORS

2) CONTRAST AGENTS

Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium

Tinker, 2014

Research to Application Pipeline

AEC

Research Thrust Engine

Pre Competitive

Member

Driven Use Cases

Hydrofrac

EOR

Waterflood

Experiments and Demos

Nano

Concepts

AEC Filtering and

Integration of Ideas

Research

Thrusts

Building

Blocks

Application

Ideas

Prototypes

Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium

Tinker, 2014

Use Cases = Field Applications

Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium

Tinker, 2014

• Shale Gas

Will be a contributor to global energy

Above ground challenges are real

Alternatives are not perfect

Won’t last forever

• Subsurface Nanosensors

Are getting close to reality

Will improve reservoir characterization

Should improve recovery

Summary

Tinker, 2014

Thanks!