u.s. solar energy industry: national dynamics & state

December 14, 2017

www.seia.org

U.S. SOLAR ENERGY INDUSTRY: NATIONAL

DYNAMICS &STATE-LEVEL IMPACTS

Rick UmoffRegulatory Counsel and Director

State Affairs, SEIA

U.S. SOLAR INDUSTRY: SETTING THE STAGE

December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 2

The Grid Has Never Been More Diverse


0%

10%

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100%

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

U.S. Electricity Generation, 1950 - 2016

Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind OtherSource: EIA

Grid Already Accommodates Large Penetration of Renewables


•15 U.S. States already see solar & wind penetrations of 10% or above, with no reduction in reliability.

•Nationally, Solar & Wind represented 7% of total generation in 2016

Solar’s Share of New Capacity Has Grown


4%8% 9%

27% 27% 30%

39%36%

51%

31%

47%43%

29%

29%32%

10%

16%

10%

1%

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24% 29%

41%

7%25%

39%26%

4% 2% 3%9%

4% 2%6%

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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are

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Annual Additions of New Electric Capacity

Solar Natural Gas Coal Wind Other

The Solar Industry Today


49.3 GW of solar installed through Q3 2017

9.5 millionEnough to power American homes

68% 10-year average annual growth rate

260,000Workers employed in the solar industry:

1.6 million individual installations nationwide

Deployment Forecast


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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

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U.S. Solar PV Deployment Forecast

Residential (PV) Non-residential (PV) Utility (PV)

• Total solar deployment will more than double over the next 5 years, reaching 100 GW by 2021

Prices have fallen by 10 – 18% over last 12 months


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Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017

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Installed Solar PV Prices

Residential Non-Residential Utility-Scale (Fixed Tilt) Utility-Scale (Tracker)

Continuing to Create Jobs


Solar Growth Coast to Coast

TOP 10 STATES (MW)

1. California – 20,163

2. North Carolina – 3,785

3. Arizona – 3,336

4. Nevada – 2,585

5. New Jersey – 2,234

6. Massachusetts – 1,898

7. Texas – 1,847

8. Utah – 1,566

9. Georgia – 1,505

10. New York – 1,176


Source: SEIA/GTM Research

OPPORTUNITIES FOR STATES


Solar and Wind are Price Competitive With All Other Energy Technologies


•Map shows the cheapest electricity technology for each county in the United states.

•Utility-scale solar (purple) is the cheapest source of electricity in large portions of the Southwest, West Coast and Southeast

•Wind (light green) is cheapest throughout Midwest, Great Plains, Northeast

Helping Schools Save Money

• 5,500 K-12 schools have gone solar, more than twice as many as there were three years ago


Fortune 100 Companies are Going Solar


• Top 25 Corporate users, led by Target, have

installed more than 1 GW of total solar capacity

• They are choosing solar because it saves them

money

• Clear and consistent financing options are

critical to grow this market: C-PACE can help

RISKS & THREATS TO SOLAR GROWTH


Net Metering


• At the end of 2017, 36 states will be at grid parity for rooftop solar. If Net Metering export rate compensation is cut in half, only a handful will remain at grid parity

• We are committed to working with utilities to develop the next generation of net metering and rate design; consumers’ freedom to choose their energy is paramount

Reforming State Electricity Markets


CA: Working toward sensible next-

generation solar policies in the

nation’s leading solar market.

FL: Looking ahead to 2018 now

that legislation has opened up

the market

NC: Second largest solar

state is jeopardized by harmful

PURPA proposals, rooftop

solar will continue to face

strong headwinds

MA: Fighting to get the

NEM caps raised once

again in the

Commonwealth to align

with the new incentive

program.

NV: Enacted new NEM policies

that will reopen the state’s

residential market. But,

challenges remain: Gov.

Sandoval vetoed important

community solar and RPS bills

NY: Continuing to engage with REV

process to maintain solar support and

develop successor tariffs for net

metering

TX: Advocate against demand

charges and interconnection

fees in the El Paso Electric rate

case, and efforts at the PUCT

and ERCOT to maintain fair

treatment of USP.

Section 201 Trade Case


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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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SolarWorld Trade Relief Proposal Impact on Solar Deployment and Jobs vs Baseline

Installed Capacity (SolarWorld Proposal) Installed Capacity (Baseline) Jobs (SolarWorld Proposal) Jobs (Baseline)

• The proposed remedies will lead to job losses of 48,000 – 63,000 in 2018 and

60,000 – 84,000 in 2020, relative to baseline

Federal Tax Reform

• Preserving the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is critical

• Also working to fight poison pill ‘BEAT’ tax provision, which would severely limit the viability of tax equity financing


Federal Electricity Market Manipulation

• Federal Energy Regulatory Commission working to respond to DOE proposal regarding pricing for “grid resiliency”, which would essentially subsidize coal and nuclear power generation.

• This would stifle healthy competition in the energy industry


THANK YOU


u.s. solar energy industry: national dynamics & state

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