usbr updates: forecast and modeling changes crfs meeting nov 8, 2011
DESCRIPTION
USBR Updates: Forecast and Modeling Changes CRFS Meeting Nov 8, 2011. Forecasting and Modeling Updates. Lake Powell Mass Balance 30-Year Historic Record Implementation Lake Mead Area Capacity Table Update and Implementation Mid-Term (Probabilistic) Operations Model (MTOM). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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USBR Updates: Forecast and Modeling ChangesCRFS Meeting Nov 8, 2011
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Forecasting and Modeling Updates• Lake Powell Mass Balance• 30-Year Historic Record Implementation• Lake Mead Area Capacity Table Update and
Implementation• Mid-Term (Probabilistic) Operations Model
(MTOM)
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Lake Powell Mass Balance
Jan 2012: move to Mass Balance approach to computing Lake Powell “observed” inflows
• Inflow at Lake Powell will be computed based on reservoir delta storage and releases instead of routed 3-gages upstream– Corrects inconsistencies between modeling (future)
and database (historic), bank storage issues, and is consistent with other reservoirs
1. Historic Data in HDB– Recomputed inflow and bank storage back to 1964
2. Forecast– use new inflow data
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Lake Powell Mass Balance
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Lake Powell Mass Balance
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Localized rain events show up in the Mass Balance
Inflow Record
Lake Powell Mass Balance
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30-Year Historic Record
Jan 2012: move to 1981-2010 average
1. Forecasts from RFC• RFC models calibrated to ‘81-’10 inflow data • Reclamation will use updated forecasts
2. Percent of Average reporting • Will use ‘81-’10 statistics (previously ‘71-’00)
3. “Out-year” inflows in 24-Month Study • Will use 81-’10 statistics (previously ‘76-’05)
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30-Year Historic Record - Powell
71-'00 76-'05 81-'10OCT 546 514 543NOV 545 523 531DEC 436 414 416JAN 406 384 381FEB 421 398 390MAR 663 628 632APR 984 950 945MAY 2,309 2,161 2,148JUN 3,085 2,811 2,721JUL 1,559 1,346 1,288AUG 614 566 570SEP 475 460 463
ANNUAL 12,043 11,154 11,029APR-JUL 7,937 7,268 7,103
Unreg Inflow Volume (kaf)Powell
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Inflo
w (k
af)
Month
Powell Unregulated Historic Inflow
71-'00
76-'05
81-'10
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
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MTOM- Overview• Based on 24-Month Study,
but able to simulate multiple traces for a probabilistic output and analysis
• MTOM is additional tool to evaluate risk and uncertainty in Colorado River Basin
• 24-Month Study is still official model for operational tier determinations
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MTOM- Current Status• Completed:
– UC/LC reservoir operation / surplus rules– Multiple run management configured– Input / Output data management interfaces built– Automated output visualization– RiverWare software development
• Current work: – Training UC/LC operators– Installing RiverWare 6.1 when released– Documentation
• Future plans:– Begin parallel runs with 24MS in Jan 2012– (Delayed from June 2012 due to contracting problems and need
for RiverWare 6.1 release to run in operational mode)
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• Model input is range of probable inflows– CBRFC’s ESP forecasts (27 traces) will drive first and
second years of model – Ongoing research to develop forecasting techniques for
beyond 2 years (2-10 yrs)
MTOM Inflows
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MTOM – Reservoir Operations
• Uses “rules” (prioritized logic) to set UC reservoir releases rather than manual input
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MTOM – Reservoir Ops Validation
• Parallel runs begin in Jan• Compare 24-MS official
results against MTOM (using official forecast) to verify reservoir rules
• Evaluate elevations and releases
• Validation already completed for all 2010 runs (including Min and Max probable)
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MTOM: Output
• All data in 24Month Study Report• Automated visualization/plots
– Reservoir releases, elevations,prob of equalizaiton
– Prob of shortage– Prob of surplus
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MTOM: Next Steps
• Parallel runs with 24MS beginning Jan 2012– Run two models in parallel with official forecast and further
validate and “tweak” rules as necessary– Overlay official (MOST, MIN, MAX) with 27 ESP traces to
visualize where official forecast fits within ESP spread
• Expect to be ready to share *preliminary* multiple trace results with stakeholders beginning in early Spring 2012– Need a couple months to ensure model is working operationally
as we expect it to
• Expect to share *draft* model, ruleset and documentation with interested technical stakeholders in early Spring 2012
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• Extra Slides
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Filling Period Normal Operation