8/6/2019 USD Further to Fall

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/usd-further-to-fall 1/2

USD:FurthertoFall

IstheUSdollarpoisedtobottomoutagainsttheworld’scurrencies,ordoesithavefurthertofall?The

chartstellall:

TheUSdollarhasrecentlyfinished“wave1”ofitsbearishsupercycleagainsttheeuro.Havingcompleted

“waveA”ofitsthree-wavecorrectionandmakingprogresson“waveB,”itisnotsurprisingthatmanyUSD

bullsthinkthatthegreenbackhasroomtorise.Lookingmoreclosely,though,itisclearthat“wave4”of

the“1”supercyclefailedtoactasasafeguardsupport,butratheritwasseenasacliff.Tobreakthe1.4200

levelwithconvictionwouldmeanafreefallfortheeuro,andthatwasnotgoingtohappen.Reboundbelow

thefailedsupportlevelindicatesthattheeurohasfarthertogainontheupsideagainstthedollar,backed

bytheStreet’sacquiescentacceptanceofahornyheadoftheECBandGreekdebtproblemscomingtoa

head.Thecrosshaspotentialtorisebackupto1.4600.Oncethemomentumturnsandabreakbelowthe1.41/1.4000levelisseen,nextsupportisseenatthe1.3450level.

8/6/2019 USD Further to Fall

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/usd-further-to-fall 2/2

TheSwissfrancappearstobepoisedtosetfreshhighsagainstthegreenback.Havingrecentlystarted

“wave5”ofthegranderbearish“A”supercycle,thecrossappearstobeadheringverynicelyto

support/resistancelevels.Failuretobroachthe0.90levelmeansthatthecrossislikelytocontinuedownwardandbreakbelowthe0.8600tosetayearlylow(support)forthecross.

IamsellingtheUSdollaragainstmajorcurrencypairs,includingcommoditycurrencies.Gold,silver,crude

copper,andpalladium(amongothers)poppedtodayoffofavolatilityspike,indicatingfurtherupsidefor

commodities.ThatmeansnotonlygainsfortheAustraliadollar,Canadiandollar,andNorwegiankrone,

butalsothatthegoodolegreenbackwillfacefurtherdevaluationinthefaceofcommodityinflation

concerns.

Marketsseemtobeshruggingoffeurodebtissues,andIdonotseeabottomfortheUSDuntilwellintothe

summer.Long-termdollarstrength(higheryields)willonlycomeintheformofpositiveUS

unemploymentandhousingdata.Untilthen,watchtreasuryyieldscontinuetofall,commoditiestogain

modestly,volatile(turnedbullish)equitytrading(retailers,technology,financials),andadepreciatedUSdollar.Targeta1.45/1.46levelforaturnaroundagainsttheeuro.

njb