use of af vs in gao strategy

GAO STRATEGY- USED OF ARMOURED FIGHTING

VEHICLES (AFVS)

BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT

[email protected]

Indicator for crisis

Are members of a community willing to act -regulation, policy, Evidence based

Total recovery (physically fit and mentally fit)- assets, livlyhood properties, wellbeing

Administration are they engaged -willing and an attitude- Emergency planning, resouce allocation

Level Lowest degree

Uppermost degreeGoal archievement

Not over-reacting

Is there an hybrid organization between the top and the bottom of the organizations -consultant, diplomate....

Operational, task force, managers work teams

EWS – MEDIA – JOURNALIST- VIRTUAL ENTITIES

CRISIS ORGANIZATION

BIRD Gao Strategy 2013 Source: author

BU SIN ESS IN N O VATIO N R ESEAR C H D EVELO PM EN T

T1

T2

Quick phaseQuick phase

Intermediate phase

Last phase

K (equilibrium)

ToT*

1a1'a 1b1'b2'b 2a 1a1'b

3a 3'a3'a

3'b 3''bExternal+ External –

Internal + Internal –

(A)

(B)

(C)

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7



1- Strategic Analysis of the balance of forces (A)2- Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA) (C) 2a- International stakeholder regulation2b- The regional intervention– Communty resilienceB) Role of investment in post recovery operation-engaging toward change: B-- → B+

K

3'b

3''b

Costs of inaction

Maximum

Minimum(gains:development)

Average – Terrorism InvestmentFor occupying Mali

Cost = 0

(losses: Costs increase)

Southern costsEfforts madeWar costs

Northern CostsAssistanceTo the North

€1 billion(Diouncoude Traoure assessment) - including Kidale-

1a

1'b Without Kidale

Mali

Cost for Serval intervention -who pays (is it incuded in the € 3billions



Tsunami South East Asia 2005, Dec. 24

7

Costs of recovery and reconstruction ($ billions)

Assets, recovery & reconstruction

Haiti earthquake 11 Jan. 2011

300,000 deads, losses of properties, livelihoods

(Over estimates)

13

Underestimates

10(Actual)

A

B

C

Mali (predicted)

A'

C'

Currency Exchange rate €1 = $ 1.3

1.3Diouncouda Traoure

3.9Bruxelles Donors C'

A'

Mali (actual)

D

BIRD Gao Strategy 2013Source: author


turet

armoured

AFV: Armoured Fighting Vehicle

Seriously willing to engage in the battlefield

Importance of armours according to role and the direction of atttack

No armour: reconnaissance vehicule

Generic Model of AFV

WheelsTracker

weaponery

No weaponery → reconnaissanceMachine gun → self-defenceHeavy gun → engagement

Sketch of a AFV, vehicule capable of ambitious operations (adapted drawning from wikipedia)

BIRD


Niger River

Siege of Gao with AFVs

Mali troops

Niger troops

Algerian troops

AFVs penetrations

(lights)

Siege of Gao(AFVs normal with turets and guns

Niger

Mali

Algeria

Humanitarians(for basic needs during the siege and for surrenders)

Organization of the siege of GAO with AFVs penetrations and humanitarian service for surrendering and access to basic needs for the free/fred civilians(on the information I had given by French media)

Motivation of the GAO strategy and the use of AFVsThe Known factors- what was planned- the freedom of cities would rely on African armies themselvesFrance would ensure the logistic -and not direct intervention

The real operations were based on Serval Operation (France) and the use of Aircraft and infantry– The logistic was ensured by USA or Bruxelles/Belgium

KNOWNS (In the media-before the war) UNKNOWNS by the media

BIRD GAO Strategy 2013 Source: author



In fact, the same elements of my strategies were combining with Serval operations, but in different places and a different timeline.

The difference came from the fact, I knew war is the kingdom of uncertainties (20% known and 80% unknowns)The war according to the media, took everybody by surprise- the day before the intervention in Mali and Serval nobody imagined terrorist would attempt to go to Bamako- Media siad that President Holland called it a characterized aggression -it needed 24 hours for Mali Transition president to call France for military assistance in the Framework of UN

Sept-2012

Ban Khi Moon and UN resolution on Mali for ousting the terrorist and reunifyin gNorth and South- (Mali National Integrity resolution)

Feb. 2012

UN implementation of the rsolution in Oct 2013

Issues: + training of Mali roops+ enrol African Armies+ weather conditions (intervention would be during the summer/after the rainy seasons)

Oct. 2013

11 Feb. 2013: terrorist aggression

12 Feb. 2013France and Serval intervention

P SL CA EN NN AE RD I O

ACTUAL DATA, WHICH CHANGED THE STRATEGY


The compromise, which has been made to win the war

Renouncing to the strategy and adapting to the terrorist threats

Scenario (abandonned)

Chad

Chad based aircraft, which are long date operational aircrafts able to project in various African Countries in real time

Mali

Aircrafts (missile launchers (Fr.)

Serval

France

Terrorist characterized aggression

Infantry transport(Fr.)

Questio/Answers:Personnaly, I think the media and politician sent wrong signals in oderd to minimize the risk as the UN was not ready to intervene is Mali nothing was prepared (no resources- The media created noises -and possibly, this has strenghten terrorist to speed up the instability in the instability- due to the complexity of the situation(?)- I have no evidence, but I think terrorist were informed like anybody from the western media- as they knew UN had a strategy end of 2013- This infromation prompted the invasion of South Mali-Unfortunatly for them- France used an automatic response build on a long date on its partnership agreement between African countries which allocated military bases to France-So, the shortlead time between the characterised aggression and the short lead-time of responsiveness From France after Mali asked assistance is a sign that the French militarians were well awared they could use their comarative advantage and projection 24/24, 7/7 and 365/365- which is the best wasy to reduce uncertainty

New project in the instant of the attack- less me think that the battle was already in control -before it started



Estimates of needs (for recovery and reconstruction)

Optimistic (Bruxelles Donors)€3,000,000,000

Pessimistic (Diuncounda traoure)€1,000,000,000

167, 000 people compensatations

56, 000 peoplecompensations

N1 (F1)+N2 (F2) + N3 (F3) + N4 (F4)



use of af vs in gao strategy

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