u.s.epa’s clean power plan€¦ · august 3, 2015, epa signed for publication: ... ‐final rule...
TRANSCRIPT
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U.S.EPA’sCleanPowerPlan
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Presenter• KenSnell,J.D.,P.E.
S&L’sCleanPowerPlanPanel• AndrewCarstens,P.E.• MattThibodeau,P.E.• MarkLemmons,P.E.• DaveHelm,P.E.
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Agenda:• OverviewofEPA’sCleanPowerPlan
• PerformanceStandards• State‐SpecificGoals
• Implementation• CompliancePlanning• Questions/Answers
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• OverviewofEPA’sCleanPowerPlan• PerformanceStandards• State‐SpecificGoals
• Implementation
• CompliancePlanning
• Questions/Answers/PanelDiscussion
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August3,2015,EPAsignedforpublication:
• StandardsofPerformanceforGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromNew,Modified,andReconstructedStationarySources:ElectricUtilityGeneratingUnitsFinalRule§111(b)
• CarbonPollutionEmissionGuidelinesforExistingStationarySources:ElectricUtilityGeneratingUnits‐ FinalRule§111(d)
• CarbonPollutionEmissionGuidelinesforExistingStationarySources:ElectricUtilityGeneratingUnits‐ FinalRule§111(d)– the“CleanPowerPlan”
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CleanPowerPlan Appliesto:
Existingfossilfuel‐firedsteamelectricgeneratingunits(EGUs)(coal,oil,andgas‐firedboilers);
IGCCUnits; NaturalGasCombined‐Cycle(NGCC)andCombined‐HeatandPower(CHP)Units
…capableofselling>25MWtoautilitypowerdistributionsystemandwasinoperationorhadcommencedconstructionasofJanuary8,2014.
ANewSourcePerformanceStandardforExistingUnits
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CleanPowerPlan– AffectedUnits
Source:U.S.EPA
Approximately:
1,004Coal‐firedEGUs
1,507NGCCUnits425Oil/GasEGUs
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CleanPowerPlan
“AffectedUnits”donotinclude: Units<25MW Simple‐cyclecombustionturbines Non‐fossilfuelfiredgeneratingunits Existingrenewableenergygeneratingunits Existingnucleargeneratingunits NewUnitsthataresubjecttothe§111(b)NewSourcePerformanceStandardsforGreenhouseGasEmissions
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CleanPowerPlan
Verysimply,theCPPappliesCO2 performancestandardstoaffectedEGUsthatmustbeachievedby2030:
EGU Subcategory Final Ratelb CO2/MWh‐net
Fossil Steam EGU or IGCC 1,305
NGCC 771
2012 Baseline Datalb CO2/MWh‐net
%Reduction
2,204 41%
894 16%
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CleanPowerPlanPerformanceStandardsarebasedonEPA’sassessmentofBestSystemofEmissionReduction(BSER):
Building Block 1Heat Rate improvement at existing coal‐fired power plants
Building Block 2Shifting electricity generation from existing coal‐fired power plants
to existing NGCC units
Building Block 3Shifting electricity generation from existing coal‐fired power plants
and existing NGCC units to NEW zero‐CO2 emitting resources
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BSERDetermination:
CleanPowerPlan
CoalCO2 –BB1 OGFSCO2 ∆NGCCCO2FSMWh REMWh ∆NGCCMWh
FSGoal lb/MWh
NGCCGoal lb/MWh NGCCCO2
NGCCMWh REMWh
‐ RECO2 ‐ ∆NGCCCO2BaselineFSMWh
NGCCCO2 ‐ RECO2NGCCBaselineMWh
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BSERDetermination:
BuildingBlock1:ImprovedHeatRate Appliedtoexistingcoal‐firedEGUs BasedonHeatRateImprovementsof:
4.3%inEasternInterconnect 2.1%inWesternInterconnect 2.3%inTexas
ReducedbaselineCO2 emissionratefrom2,204lb/MWhto2,109lb/MWh(EasternInterconnect)
ReducedtotalbaselineCO2 emissionsbyapproximately66,105,000tons/year(2.9%)
CleanPowerPlan
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BSERDetermination:BuildingBlock3:NewREGeneration SubstitutedexistingFSandNGCCgenerationwithnewRE
generation.
NewREGenerationwascalculatedby: Applying2010‐2014capacityincreases(MW)going
forwardthrough2030andapplying“representative”capacityfactors
EPAconcludedthat: REgenerationwillincreaseby: 28,796,222MWh/year(2013– 2023)and 62,796,222MWh/year(2024– 2030)
CleanPowerPlan
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CleanPowerPlan
CoalCO2 –BB1 OGFSCO2
FSMWh REMWhFSGoal lb/MWh
NGCCGoal lb/MWh NGCCCO2
NGCCMWh REMWh
‐ RECO2BaselineFSMWh
NGCCCO2 ‐ RECO2NGCCBaselineMWh
BSERDetermination:BuildingBlock3:NewREGeneration
ReducedtotalbaselineCO2 emissionsbyapproximately530,889,000tons/year(24%)
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CleanPowerPlan
CoalCO2 –BB1 OGFSCO2
FSMWh REMWhFSGoal lb/MWh
BSERDetermination:BuildingBlock2:IncrementalNGCC(“∆NCGG”)
SubstitutedexistingFSgenerationwith∆NGCCgeneration ∆NGCCGeneration
NGCCMWh@75%CF‐ BaselineNGCCMWh post‐BB3
ReducedtotalbaselineCO2 emissionsbyapproximately123,617,000tons/year(8.1%)
∆NGCCMWh
∆NGCCCO2BaselineFSMWh
‐ RECO2 ‐ ∆NGCCCO2
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BSERDetermination:
BuildingBlock1wasappliedtoallcoal‐firedgeneratingunitsbeginningin2022
BuildingBlock2wasappliedbeginningin2022 BuildingBlock3wasphasedinstartingin2022with
incrementalincreasesinRenewableEnergygenerationthrough2030
Basedonthisapproach,thesubcategoryspecificperformancestandardsbecomeincreasinglymorestringentbeginningin2022
CleanPowerPlan
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Rat
e (lb
CO
2/M
Wh)
Year
Fossil Steam NGCC
1,741lb/MWh
1,305lb/MWh
898lb/MWh771lb/MWh
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BSER Determination:
CleanPowerPlan
BuildingBlock1:2.9%reductionintotalCO2 emissions
BuildingBlock3:24%reductionintotalCO2 emission
BuildingBlock2:8.1%reductionintotalCO2 emissions
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BSERDetermination:
CleanPowerPlan
BaselineCO2 2,265,735,254tons
ReductionsfromBaseline:
BuildingBlock1:66,105,000
BuildingBlock2:123,617,000
BuildingBlock3:530,889,000
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CleanPowerPlan
RenewableEnergywillplayasignificantruleineitherarate‐basedormass‐basedprogram:
Source:U.S.EPA
• Baseline Generation vs. Projected 2030 Generation
• Assumes no increase in total generation 2012 to 2030
• Based on EPA’s BSER Plan• Shows emphasis on RE
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CleanPowerPlan
EmissionPerformanceStandards
XState‐SpecificBaseline
GenerationMix
State‐SpecificRateBasedGoals
=State‐SpecificMassBased
Goals
Source:U.S.EPA
CleanPowerPlanInadditiontothesubcategoryspecificperformancestandards,theCleanPowerPlanalsoincludesstate‐specificemissionrategoals:
• Rate‐basedgoal(lb/MWh)• Mass‐basedgoal(totaltonsofCO2)
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CleanPowerPlan
Rate‐BasedGoals EPAappliedthesubcategory‐specificemissionratestoeachstates’baselinegenerationlevels.
Example:ArkansasFSBaseline =32,154,992MWhNGCCBaseline =15,615,185ArkansasGenerationMix:67%FSand33%NGCC
2022Rate‐BasedGoal:(1,741lb/MWhx0.67)+(898lb/MWhx0.33)=1,465lb/MWh
2030Rate‐BasedGoal:(1,305lb/MWhx0.67)+(771lb/MWhx0.33)=1,131lb/MWh
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CleanPowerPlan
State-Specific Rate-Based Goals:
FunctionoftheState’suniquebaseline
generationmix
InterimCO2 Rate‐BasedGoal
FinalRate‐BasedGoals
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CleanPowerPlan
Rate-Based Goals – Eastern States (group 1):
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CleanPowerPlan
Mass‐BasedGoals EPAappliedthesubcategory‐specificratestoeachstates’
baselinegenerationlevels;and
addedbackaportionofBuildingBlock3thatwasnotneededforcomplianceintheWestern&Texasinterconnections.
(FSBaseline xFSRate)+(NGCCBaseline xNGCCRate)+BB3Adj
BaselineMassEmissions:47,806,056tons1st InterimPeriodMass‐BasedGoal:35,189,232tonsFinalMass‐BasedGoal:30,170,750tons
Example:Arkansas
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CleanPowerPlan
Mass-Based Goals – Eastern States (group 1):
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• OverviewofEPA’sCleanPowerPlan• PerformanceStandards• State‐SpecificGoals
• Implementation
• CompliancePlanning
• Questions/Answers/PanelDiscussion
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Implementation
1. TheCleanPowerPlanwillbeimplementedthroughStateImplementationPlans(SIPs)
2. SIPsmust:“IncludeemissionstandardsforeachaffectedEGUtoensurethatthepowerplants– eitherindividually,together,orincombinationwithothermeasures– achievetheinterimCO2emissionperformanceratesovertheperiodof2022– 2029andthefinalCO2 performancerates,rate‐basedgoals,ormass‐basedgoalsby2030.”
CleanPowerPlan
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Implementation– Timeline
CleanPowerPlan
Fall2015 August3:EPASignedCleanPowerPlanforPublication
Sept.62016
StatesmakeinitialSIPsubmittalwithextensionrequestorsubmitFinalPlan
Sept.62018
StateswithanextensionsubmitFinalPlanFIPforstatesthatfailtosubmitanapprovableplan
Jan.12022 FirstCompliancePeriodbegins
Jan.12030 FinalCO2 EmissionGoals
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Implementation– ProposedFIP
August3,2015,EPAalsosignedforpublication:
FederalPlanRequirementsforGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromElectricUtilityGeneratingUnitsConstructedonor
BeforeJanuary8,2014:ModelTradingRule
CleanPowerPlan
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Implementation– ProposedFIP
EPA’sproposedFIPincludestwoalternativecomplianceprogramsbasedonemissionstrading:
CleanPowerPlan
Rate‐basedtradingprogram• AffectedEGUspurchaseemissionreductioncredits(ERCs)fromunitsthatemitbelowaspecifiedemissionrate.
Mass‐basedtradingprogram• AffectedEGUscanpurchaseemissionallowances(tons)fromunitsthatemitbelowtheirallowanceallocation.
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ImplementationEPA’sProposedRate‐BasedTrading
CleanPowerPlan
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ProposedRate‐BasedProgram:
CleanPowerPlan
lbCO2MWh
ReduceCO2MWh
lbCO2MWh
State‐SpecificRate‐BasedGoal
ERCs
ExistingunitsarerequiredtoreduceCO2emissionsorpurchaseERCsfromunitsthatemitbelowaspecifiedemissionrate.
ERCswouldbeissuedfor:
Measuresthatprovidesubstitutegeneration,and
Measuresthatavoidtheneedforgeneration.
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ProposedRate‐BasedProgram:
PotentialmeasurestoreduceCO2 Emissions (lb/MWh):
HeatRateImprovements NaturalGasCo‐firing; NaturalGasConversion QualifiedBiomassCo‐firing PartialCarbonCapture CarbonCapture&Sequestration…
CleanPowerPlan
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MeasurestoReduceCO2 Emissions(lb/MWh)• HeatRateImprovements:
Facility Coal1 Coal2 TotalCapacity(MW) 580 720 1,300Generation(MWh) 3,971,000 4,366,500 8,157,500
CO2 Emissions(tons) 4,150,950 4,944,100 9,095,050
CO2 Rate(lb/MWh) 2,190 2,265 2,2302,091 2,163 2,130
3,964,300 4,722,500 8,686,800
Assume4.5%heatrateimprovement
408,250ton/yearreductioninCO2 emissions.
ProposedRate‐BasedProgram
1st InterimStateGoal=1,411lb/MWhFinalStateGoal=1,130lb/MWh
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MeasurestoReduceCO2 Emissions(lb/MWh)• NaturalGasConversion:
Facility Unit1 Unit2 TotalCapacity(MW) 580 720 1,300Generation(MWh) 3,971,000 4,366,500 8,157,500
CO2 Emissions(tons) 3,964,300 4,722,500 8,686,800
CO2 Rate(lb/MWh) 2,091 2,163 2,1301,270 2,163 1,748
Unit1:100%NGConversion
2,407,200 4,722,500 7,129,700
2,561,605ton/yearreductioninCO2 emissions(frombaseline).
ProposedRate‐BasedProgram
1st InterimStateGoal=1,411lb/MWhFinalStateGoal=1,130lb/MWh
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Measuresthatprovidesubstitutegeneration:
IncrementalNGCCGeneration• Increasedgeneration(MWh)fromexistingNGCCunitsabove2012baseline(“GasShift”)
NewREgeneration• Wind,solar,geothermal,hydropower,biomass,waveandtidalpower
ProposedRate‐BasedProgram
NewNuclearGeneration ExistingREornuclearuprates(addedafter2012) CombinedHeat&PowerProjects InternationalREimports
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EmissionReductionCredits Gas‐ShiftERCs(GS‐ERCs)
• CreditedtoexistingNGCCUnits• CalculatedtorepresentCO2 emissionreductionsfromincrementalNGCCgeneration.
RenewableEnergyERCs(RE‐ERCs)• CreditedtoeligibleRenewableEnergyresources
ProposedRate‐BasedProgram
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Gas‐ShiftERCs(GS‐ERCs)
GS‐ERC NGCCMWh XIncrementalGenerationFactor
GS‐ERCEmissionFactor
X
IncrementalGenerationFactor
BaselineNGCCMWh
NGCCMWh @75%CF
0.22infirstcomplianceperiod
GS‐ERCEmissionFactor
NGCCRate
FSStandard1‐ approximately
0.45
ProposedRate‐BasedProgram
E.g.,1,000,000MWhx0.22x0.45=99,000ERCs
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ProposedRate‐BasedProgram
GS‐ERC=2,000,000x0.22x0.45=198,000allowances NewRate=Emissions/MWh+ERC
CO2 Emissions=RemainingCoalxBaselineRate
Rate‐BasedExample:Unit1 Unit2 Total
BaselineGeneration(MWh) 3,791,000 4,366,500 8,157,500
BaselineEmissions(tons) 3,964,157 4,721,616 8,685,733
BaselineRate(lb/MWh) 2,091 2,163 2,130
∆NGCCGeneration(MWh)
RemainingCoal(MWh)
CO2 Emissions(tons)
GS‐ERCs(tons)
NewRate(lb/MWh)
1,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000
2,791,000 3,366,500 6,167,5002,918,481 3,640,288 6,558,770
2,020 2,101 2,060
99,000 99,000 198,000
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RenewableEnergyERCs(RE‐ERCs)• RE‐ERCswillbecreditedtoeligibleREresources• EligibleREresourcesincludenewwind,solar,geothermal,hydropower,biomass,waveandtidalpower…
• 1ERC/zeroCO2‐emittingMWh
ProposedRate‐BasedProgram
RE‐ERCs 6,187,000MWh
6,558,770tons
6,167,500MWh 198,000GS‐ERCs2,060lb/MWh
Example:
6,167,500MWh 198,000GS‐ERCs RE‐ERCs1,045lb/MWh
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ImplementationEPA’sProposedMass‐BasedTrading
CleanPowerPlan
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ProposedFIPMass‐BasedProgram:
CleanPowerPlan
1Allowance
TonCO2
State‐SpecificMassBasedGoal
(tons)
Set‐AsideAllowancesfor:
• NewRE• ∆NGCC• CEIP
IssueRemainingAllowancestoAffectedEGUs
ReduceCO2 PurchaseAdditionalAllowances
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RenewableEnergy(RE)Set‐Aside: Reserveapercentageofeachstates’allowancesinaREset‐aside
EPA proposed the following specific RE measures for eligibility: on-shore wind, solar, geothermal power, and hydropower
Newnuclearunitsandcapacityupratesatexitingnuclearunitsarenotproposedtobeeligibletoreceiveset‐asideallowances.
ProposedMass‐BasedProgram
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RenewableEnergy(RE)Set‐Aside:
OnlyREmeasuresinstalled,orcapacityincreases,after2012areeligibleforset‐asideallowances.
EPAproposed5%ofeachstates’allowanceswillbereservedfortheREset‐aside.
ProposedMass‐BasedProgram
EPAproposedtoissueREset‐asideallowancesbasedonprojectedgeneration(MWh)fromeligibleREcapacity.
EPArequestedcommentoninclusionofotherREmeasures
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Output‐BasedSet‐Aside(∆NGCCSet‐Aside):
Set‐asideforincreasedgenerationfromexistingNGCCUnits Set‐asidecalculatedforeachstateas:
State’sNGCCcapacity(MW)x10%CapacityFactor AllowanceswillbeallocatedtoexitingNGCCunitsbasedontheirlevelofelectricitygenerationinthepreviouscomplianceperiod
Allocationratewillbecalculatedas:NGCCCapacity (MW)x(CF– 0.5)x8,760x1,030/2,000
ProposedMass‐BasedProgram
CapacityFactorabove50%
§111(b)NSPS(lb/MWh)
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Mass‐BasedExample(StateAllowancePool):1st InterimPeriod
2nd InterimPeriod Final
TotalAllowances 35,189,232 32,953,521 30,170,750
RESet‐Aside
CEIPSet‐Aside
∆NGCCSet‐Aside
Remainder
RESet‐Asidecalculatedat5%ofstatebudget CleanEnergyIncentivePrograminfirstcomplianceperiod.
OBSet‐Asidecalculatedat10%ofstate’sNGCCcapacity
1,801,634 1,647,676 1,516,132
2,187,230 ‐ ‐
‐ 2,102,538 2,102,538
31,200,368 29,203,307 26,552,080
ProposedMass‐BasedProgram
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Coal1 Coal2BaselineGeneration(MWh) 3,791,000 4,366,500BaselineCO2 Emissions(tons) 4,150,950 4,944,100
%ofTotalStateGeneration
2030Allowances
Surplus/(Deficit)
%ofAllowancesNeeded
TotalBaselineStateGeneration:47,806,056MWh
2030AllowancePool(afterset‐asides):26,552,080
Needtoacquireadditionalcomplianceallowances
7.93% 9.13%
2,105,569 2,425,209
(2,045,381) (2,518,891)
51% 49%
ProposedMass‐BasedProgram
Mass‐BasedExample(Coal‐FiredEGU):
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NGCCExample: NGCC1 NGCC2 NGCC3Capacity(summer)MW 47 145 170BaselineGeneration(MWh) 30,316 718,446 142,924BaselineCO2 Emissions(tons) 15,348 311,844 62,930
CO2 EmissionRate(lb/MWh) 1,013 868 881
BaselineCapacityFactor 7% 56% 10%
%ofStateGeneration
AllowancePoolAllocation
TotalBaselineStateGeneration:47,806,056 MWh
2030AllowancePool(afterset‐asides):26,552,080 NGCCUnitswillrequireallowancesforincreasedgeneration
ProposedMass‐BasedProgram
Mass‐BasedExample(NGCCUnits):
0.063% 1.5% 0.30%16,838 399,034 79,282
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NGCCExample: NGCC1 NGCC2 NGCC3Capacity(summer)MW 47 145 170Generation@70%CF(MWh) 308,790 952,650 1,116,900CO2 Emissions@70%(tons) 156,329 413,500 491,770
AllowancePoolAllocation 16,838 399,034 79,382
∆NGCCSet‐AsideAllowances
TotalAllowances
OBAllowances=MWCap x(0.7– 0.5)x8,760x1,030/2,000
AssumesthatOBAllowancesareavailable
ProposedMass‐BasedProgram
Mass‐BasedExample(NGCCUnits):
42,407 130,831 153,388
59,245 529,865 153,388Surplus/(Deficit) (97,084) 116,365 (259,005)
NGCCUnitswithlowbaselinecapacityfactorswillneedtoacquireadditionalcomplianceallowances
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ProposedMass‐BasedProgram
Generation (MWh)
Emissions (tons)
Allowances (tons)
Coal-Fired EGU
Low CF NGCC Unit
High CF NGCC Unit
No
Sca
le
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• OverviewofEPA’sCleanPowerPlan• PerformanceStandards• State‐SpecificGoals
• Implementation
• CompliancePlanning
• Questions/Answers/PanelDiscussion
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GeneralConclusions:1. HeatRateimprovementswillplayonlyaminor
roleincomplianceatexistingcoal‐firedEGUsundereitherarate‐basedormass‐basedprogram.
2. OtherCO2 emissionreductionmeasures,includingnaturalgasco‐firing andnaturalgasconversion,couldprovidesignificantCO2 emissionreductionsforexistingcoal‐firedEGUsandshouldbeevaluatedasapartofeitherprogram.
3. RenewableEnergywillplayasignificantroleinoverallcompliancewitheitherarate‐basedprogram(RE‐ERCs)ormass‐basedprogram(RESet‐AsideAllowances)
CleanPowerPlan
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GeneralConclusions:
CleanPowerPlan
Rate‐BasedERCs
1. GS‐ERCsmaybelimitedbasedonthemethodologyusedtocalculatetheERCs.
2. GS‐ERCscannotbyusedbyNGCCunitsforcompliancewitharate‐basedprogram.
3. RE‐ERCswilllikelybeneededbycoal‐firedunitsandNGCCunitsforcompliance.
Mass‐BasedAllowances
1. OutputBased(∆NGCC)set‐asideallowancesmaybeneededtooffsetincreasedCO2 emissionsfromNGCCunits,especiallyunitswithlowbaselinecapacityfactors.
2. REset‐asideallowanceswilllikelybeneededbycoal‐firedEGUsandlowcapacityfactorNGCCunitsforcompliance.
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CleanPowerPlan
Building Block 1
Building Block 3
Building Block 2
PlanningforCompliance:BuildingBlock1
• IdentifypotentialCO2 emissionreductionopportunities:heatRateimprovements,fuelco‐firing,naturalgas‐conversion,carboncapture.
BuildingBlock2• IdentifyopportunitiestoincreaseNGCCgenerationandgenerateGS‐ERCsorOBSet‐AsideAllowances
BuildingBlock3 EvaluatepotentialNEWREcapacityandgeneratingopportunities
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CleanPowerPlan
PlanningforCompliance
REGeneration‐ GeneralEligibilityRequirements:• OnlyREmeasuresinstalledafter2012areeligiblefor
adjustingCO2 emissionratesorgeneratingCO2allowances.
• OnlythequantifiableandverifiableMWhofREgenerationproducedin2022andfutureyearsmaybeappliedtoadjustingCO2 emissionratesorgeneratingallowances.
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CleanPowerPlan
PlanningforCompliance:CompliancePlansNeedtoIntegrateanEvaluationof:
• Overallimpactsongeneration:• UnitRetirements• MeetingDemand• MeetingPeakDemand
• UnitDispatch• ReliabilityandGridStability• Operations
• Operatingbaseloadunitascyclingunit• RespondingtofluctuationinREgeneration
• CostofElectricity
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CleanPowerPlan
PlanningforCompliance:PreliminaryEvaluations
• Reviewexistinggeneratingportfolio:AffectedUnits,NGCCcapacityandcapacityfactors,baselineemissions&emissionrates
• ReviewandunderstandtheproposedFIPRate‐BasedandMass‐Basedtradingprograms
• Evaluatepros/consoftheRate‐BasedandMass‐Basedtradingoptions,aswellasotheralternatives
• ParticipateinstakeholdermeetingsandcloselyfollowdevelopmentofyourState’sSIP
• WorkwithyourstatetodevelopSIPrequirementsthataremostadvantageous
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CleanPowerPlan
Questions/AnswersForadditionalinformation,pleasecontact:
Ken SnellSr. Manager Environmental [email protected]
Andrew CarstensDirector Environmental [email protected]
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