user guide for the advanced health module lateheal of ... · version 1.1 (draft) user guide for the...

Version 1. (draft) User guide for the advanced health module LATEHEAL of RODOS-PV5.0F

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User guide for the advanced health module LATEHEAL of RODOS-PV5.0F

Jagos J. Raicevic, Wolfgang Raskob

Contents

USER GUIDE FOR THE ADVANCED HEALTH MODULE LATEHEAL OF RODOS-PV4.0F_02 1

1 Overview 2 1.1 File input and output 2

2 Starting the LATEHEAL module 4 2.1 Before the run 4 2.2 Starting the LATEHEAL Module 4 2.3 Archived runs 8

3 Initialization Windows for LATEHEAL 11 3.1 Overview 11 3.2 Description of static input windows 12

3.2.1 Selection of calculation 13 3.2.2 Selection of pathways 15 3.2.3 Specification of cut-off values 16 3.2.4 Specification of age/time intervals 18

3.3 Dynamic input window 20 3.3.1 Selection of organs 20

4 Results and Data Output 21 4.1 Output to the Graphics system 21

4.1.1 Possible results 21

5 Error Correction Procedures 26 5.1 Trouble shouting 26

Document History 27

Version 1.1 (draft) User guide for the advanced health module LATEHEAL of RODOS-PV5.0F

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1 Overview

The main task of the LATEHEAL module within the RODOS system is to evaluate the number of stochastic health effects, which will develop in the population exposed to the radionuclides released into the human environment. The output obtained from the LATEHEAL module can help decision-makers in planning countermeasure strategies, and from the other side to mark those populations where epidemiological studies might be imposed.

The exposure pathways, which are considered in the assessment of the stochastic health effects are: internal exposures due to inhalation and ingestion, and external exposures from the plume and from radioactive material deposited on ground and clothes. Inhalation from the passing plume and that one from the resuspended activity are separately considered. In addition, LATEHEAL contains an additional mode for calculating the numbers of Years of Life Lost (YLL) per excess death. That means it provides an additional assessment of the life shortening for those individuals who will certainly die.

LATEHEAL is designed to perform all calculations location by location. The code considers all locations as default, but the user may consider one particular location only. After finishing the loop over locations, user can also have some cumulative results to be displayed. Besides spatially distributed results, also cumulative values summed up over the whole area, which is under investigation, can be displayed.

Within one particular grid element, it is assumed to have uniform radiation doses as well an uniform age structure, which matches to that one obtained for the whole population. LATEHEAL can be used with different grid types and grid sizes. Although the enlargement of the number of grid elements may from one side improve the accuracy of the initial dose arrays, it can on the other side also lead to bad statistics within the individual grid elements. In that case one has to be careful in the interpretation of the results obtained, and the overall results (total number of effects obtained by summing up over all locations) should be used for an analysis, rather than the location dependent numbers of deaths.

1.1 File input and output

The basic input data required by LATEHEAL are time, age and location dependent radiation doses, as well as the number of inhabitants in each location. These doses which are input for LATEHEAL, are calculated within the software package FDMT (Terrestrial Food and Dose Modules). The location dependent number of inhabitants originates from the RODOS data base geographical system. By means of a set of steering parameters,


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displayed in several input windows, the user can select the mode of operation, exposure pathway, cancer type (target organ) and the particular location of the interest for analysis.

Basic data for LATEHEAL is located in the data directory of RODOS. The basic quantities required by the model are time and age dependent dose risk factors, defined as probabilities for fatal somatic health effects as a function of time after irradiation. These factors were derived from the number of deaths in one million people irradiated with 0.01 Sv, and depend on the organ, sex and age of the individual. For the purpose of the analysis which is implemented in LATEHEAL, these factors are averaged over sex, i.e. there is no sex dependency in the calculated radiation risk. These factors are part of the LATEHEAL database. Furthermore, the model needs the probability density function of age at natural death in the observed population, in order to construct the distribution of ages at radiation induced death. Both of these data sets include also a set of parameters which define the array lengths: dose risk factors are interpolated for itbmax=100 years after the accident. Program considers lmax-1=95-1=94 ages at radiation induced death, and there are at present norg=10 target organs, where different kind of cancers may develop due to exposure to radiation. Due to a memory limitation, there is at present possibility to consider the maximum four different target organs within one LATEHEAL run. Finally, the probability density function for the natural age at death is defined up to the maximal duration of life in the observed population 95max =l years. These parameters are defined in the param.dat file, which is in the data directory of RODOS.

The input radiation doses for different exposure pathways, LATEHEAL reads from the FDMT Module. These doses are given in discrete time and age points. In order to obtain the “smooth” curves with the one-year time and age resolution, LATEHEAL makes a double interpolation, with respect to age at exposure and the time after the accident. From the FDMT Module, LATEHEAL reads nuclide dependent radiation doses for different exposure pathways. However, the nuclide dependency is not considered in the stochastic health effect analysis, and according to the FDMT-HEALTH interface, the summation over nuclides is done. The parameters, which define the FDMT-HEALTH interface are also placed in the data file param.dat.


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2 Starting the LATEHEAL module

2.1 Before the run

To run LATEHEAL, results of a previous run of the Foodchain and Dose Module FDMT is required as input data to FDMT. Note: Within the run of FDMT, the interface to the complex LATEHEAL module must have been activated.

2.2 Starting the LATEHEAL Module

An interactive computation run of the Module LATEHEAL is started in the following way:

• In the Main Dialogue window of RODOS select the button [Interactive].

• In the Interactive Manager window choose [Configuration] and then [Importing Result-Dataset To] from the menu bar at the top to select the results of a previous run of FDMT as input to LATEHEAL.


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• A window called Target Programs appears, in which the button [LATEHEAL] has to be selected.

Then a window appears in which all archived runs are listed. A FDMT run is selected by clicking on it and then pressing the button [Apply].

Attention: If you get an error message (Warning: configuration not completed), although you carried out all steps in the correct way, proceed with the following instructions:

The reason for the error message is, that there exists no load list. Go to the Start window and click [Start]. The system will then generate an automatic


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copy of the required load list. You must wait until the ready-message appears; leave then the Start window by pressing [Cancel] and repeat the configuration step(s).

• Click on the button [LATEHEAL] in the Interactive Manager window to start a new run of LATEHEAL.

• A Start window for the definition of the RunId pops up, the RunId has to be entered by the user.

The RunID can be any character string using letters and numbers (maximum 12 characters) and must be different from the RunIDs of previous runs which are still in the data base.

By selecting [Initializing] in the window, Initialization windows can be opened which enable the selection of input parameter for LATEHEAL. LATEHEAL contains static and dynamic input windows. Parameters in static input windows have to be changed in the initialization phase whereas the dynamic input windows should be only accessed during runtime when they pop-up. The windows are described in detail in chapter 3. When returning from the Initialization windows a window Program Initialization appears.

Now, three options are available:


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• To apply the selection made in the Initialization windows before click on [Apply] and then [Return].

• To make new selections in the Initialization windows click on [unlock buttons] and then [HEAfloat50] again.

• To start the program with the preset selections click on [Return].

If no initialization via the Initialization windows is done, the program run is started with the preset selections (as described in section 3).

• To enable the graphics output of LATEHEAL, the Graphics System of RODOS has to be started before LATEHEAL is started, by selecting the button [Graphics] in the Main Dialogue window of RODOS.

• The program run is started by clicking on [Start] in the Start window.

Attention: After pressing [Initializing] or [Start] in the Start window you can get an info message, telling you that there is no load list available and that an automatic copy will be generated by the system. Wait until that has finished. Then press [Initializing] or [Start] again and continue.

After the program has been started, a Control & Services window appears. This control window is divided into an upper and lower part. The upper part contains the RunID of the currently selected run as well as four buttons to control the runs. The lower part contains five buttons with which various services can be chosen. All buttons are described in detail in the User Guide for the Graphical System. The only button in the lower part which is of interest for LATEHEAL is the button:

• [Process Status ]: Selecting this service opens a window with the list of all modules of the selected run and their actual state. The colour coding of the modules indicates whether the module has not yet started (blue), data is loaded from the database (yellow), the module is calculating (green), the results are archived in the database (red) or the module has finished its work (grey).


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2.3 Archived runs

Archived graphical output of LATEHEAL can be displayed by selecting [File] and further [Display Results] in the menu bar of the Interactive Manager window of RODOS.

Thereafter, a windows pops up with the program groups where a run can be selected.


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In the Program Groups window the requested button [LATEHEAL] has to be selected. Then a window pops up with the list of all LATEHEAL runs archived.

One run out of the list has to be selected and the button [Apply] has to be pressed. Thereafter, two windows appear: The Control & Services window (see above) and the Application List window.


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The next step is first to selected the run in the Application List window by simply clicking on it (colour does not change), and in second to select the [Graphics] button in the Control & Services window. Thereafter, a window with the list of all results archived for this run is displayed.

In this window either individual results can be selected by clicking through the context menu up to a result which is marked with a red cross. This can be selected by pressing the [Apply] button. Or it is also possible to select all results by pressing first the [All] button and thereafter the [Apply] button. The [Close] button can be selected if no further result is requested.


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3 Initialization Windows for LATEHEAL

3.1 Overview

By selecting [Initializing] in the Start window (see previous Chapter) the Initialization windows can be used to select the requested input by LATEHEAL. The window hierarchy is shown below (WINDOWS, Options):

LATEHEAL ¦ +- Selection of calculations ¦ +- Risk ¦ ¦ +- Location for calculation ¦ ¦ ¦ +- Years of life lost ¦ ¦ +- Location for calculation ¦ ¦ ¦ +- Risk and Years of life lost ¦ ¦ +- Location for calculation ¦ +- Selection of pathways ¦ +- Sum of all pathways ¦ +- Cloud ¦ +- Ground ¦ +- Ingestion ¦ +- Inhalation ¦ +- Resuspension ¦ +- Skin ¦ +- Selection of organ (dynamic input window) ¦ +- all organs ¦ +- organ 1 ¦ +- ¦ +- organ n ¦ +- Specification of cut-off values ¦ +- minimum population number ¦ +- minimum dose: Cloud ¦ +- minimum dose: Ground ¦ +- minimum dose: Ingestion ¦ +- minimum dose: Inhalation ¦ +- minimum dose: Resuspension ¦ +- minimum dose: Skin ¦ +- Specification of age/time intervals ¦ +- Time interval after the accident ¦ ¦ Age interval after the accident


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3.2 Description of static input windows

By selecting [Initializing] in the Start window (see Chapter 3) and then selecting [HEAfloat50] in the following Program Initialization window the Dataset Selection window comes up.

This window switches between modification of either the data from the previous initialization, or the data from another initialization made earlier. After pressing the appropriate button, the Initialization windows are called to define parameter values to be used by the LATEHEAL calculations. In various sub-windows the requested input parameters requested by LATEHEAL can be filled in.

These sub-windows can be accessed by clicking on one of the main topics in the Main Initialization Window (StochHealth-1.0: Selection of input) which appears.

Only the selection of organs will pop up dynamically during run-time and should not be selected in the initialization procedure. If selected, only the first line contains information, the remaining lines contain the following characters ‘----‘.

Selecting the button [Close] stores the selection and closes the window, the button [Help] opens a help window including some comments for this main menu.


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For all windows there exist default settings which are activated by having selected [default] in the Option menu of the Interactive manager window. However, modifications from previous runs will be active if the selection temporary was made in the Interactive manager.

3.2.1 Selection of calculation

Choosing [Selection of calculation] brings up the following window in which the mode of operation can be selected. There are three different modes of operation:

• Risk: Selects the risk mode of LATEHEAL where the number of somatic stochastic health effects are calculated.

• Years of life lost: Activates the mode where the numbers of Years of Life Lost (YLL) per excess death are calculated

• Risk and Years of life lost: Both endpoints will be calculated

Selecting the button [Close] stores the selection and closes the window, the button [Help] opens a help window including some comments for this main menu.

By clicking on one of the three buttons, always one further window appears.

The Risk mode is activated by default. Within this mode, the default option


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forces the calculation of stochastic health effects for all locations, as the number 0 is active (as presented in the above window). If a positive integer value (less or equal to the maximal number of locations) is entered in the ‘location for calculation’ window, the program perform its tasks only for that location.

In case of the YLL mode or Both, it is highly recommended to select one particular location only for the calculations. There are two reasons to perform the YLL calculations at one location only. The first one is computing time, and the second one is the fact that the YLL per excess death is a function, which is rather insensitive to the variation of the radiation doses. Therefore, the YLL assessed at one location (for example the one with the highest number of stochastic health effects) might, as an acceptable approximation, can be regarded as representative for the whole area under consideration. Selecting the button [Update] stores the selection and closes this window, [Close] closes the window without storing the selections. The button [Help] opens a help window including some comments for this window.


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3.2.2 Selection of pathways

Choosing [Selection of pathways] in the 'Main Menu'-window brings up a window where a selection of exposure pathways can be made. It is possible to select one, several or all of the pathways displayed.

Selecting the button [Update] stores the selection and closes this window, [Close] closes the window without storing the selections. The button [Help] opens a help window including some comments for this window.

In the [Selection of pathways] window, Cloud stands for the short-term external exposure from the radioactive cloud as it passes overhead. Ground stands for the long-term external exposure from the contaminated ground. Ingestion stands for the internal exposure from the ingestion of the contaminated foodstuffs. Inhalation and Resuspension stand for the internal exposure due to inhalation of the radioactive material from the radioactive cloud and resuspended activity, respectively. Skin stands for the short-term external exposure from the radioactive material deposited on the skin or clothes. If one of these buttons is selected, all analysis will be performed for that specified exposure pathway, taking into account, when necessary, also the new-born, i.e. the following generations (buttons: Ground, Ingestion, Resuspension).


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3.2.3 Specification of cut-off values

Choosing [Specification of cut-off values] in the 'Main Menu'-window brings up a window specific cut of values can be defined. It is possible to define separate cut of values for:

• Minimum population number

• Minimum cut of dose value for cloudshine (Sv)

• Minimum cut of dose value for groundshine (Sv)

• Minimum cut of dose value for ingestion (Sv)

• Minimum cut of dose value for inhalation (Sv)

• Minimum cut of dose value for resuspension (Sv)

• Minimum cut of dose value for skin (Sv)

The cut-off values presented in the [Cut-off values] window have the following meaning. If the number of inhabitants within one particular grid element is less than the ‘Minimum population number’ (number 10 in the window), the program will skip that location and continue with the next one. The cut-off values for the radiation doses received within each exposure pathway, need an additional explanation. The stochastic health effects, which are considered by the LATEHEAL module, have no thresholds. However, when the model is applied to realistic situations with real population data, it appears that in most cases due to small dose values, and


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also a small number of inhabitants, LATEHEAL calculates a very small number of deaths, in the order of ,...10,10 43 −− or less. In other words, without thresholds, the program calculates a great amount of zero values. In order to avoid that, i.e. to save computing time, the threshold doses were created. The ‘Minimum dose [Sv] for exposure pathway’ in the above window, is the total (cumulative) dose received over the lifetime period (at present it is set to 95 years after the accident) via the corresponding exposure pathway. The dose value of 0.01 mSv (1.00e-05 Sv) is therefore the dose received after 95 years through the specified exposure pathway. Clearly, it does not refer to the short-term exposure pathways.



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3.2.4 Specification of age/time intervals

Choosing [Specification of age/time intervals] in the 'Main Menu'-window brings up a window where the two intervals can be defined:

1. In the first part of the window, the lower and upper integration interval for the time after the accident can be set. This affects the age at death dependent total number of deaths, which will occur in a certain time interval after the accident.

• Time interval 1y – 95 y

2. In the second half of the window, the lower and upper integration ages at death, for which the total number of deaths will be calculated and graphically presented, can be set. This affects the time dependent number of deaths, which will occur within the selected interval of ages.

• Age interval 1y – 95 y

One has to be careful with the interpretation of the results obtained and presented as separate graphs, based on the data entered through this window.

• The first part of the window defines the time interval within which the age distribution of deaths, or, to be more precise, the age at death distribution will be given. The default value is set to be equal to the maximal lifetime in the observed population. It certainly can be less, but it might happen that the numbers, which appear as a result of the LATEHEAL calculations, are rather small. As a consequence, some effects may be hidden due to a bad statistics, and consequently, the


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curve obtained by the program cannot help much to the experts to justify some actions.

• The same is valid for the second part in this input window. It defines the time distribution of radiation induced deaths which are expected to occur within some fixed interval of ages. If the age at death interval is small, the statistics is rather bad, and again it is possible to obtain useless figures (from the point of view of the analyst).



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3.3 Dynamic input window

3.3.1 Selection of organs

Radiation induced stochastic health effects result in an increased number of cancers in the observed population. These cancers can be developed at various so called target organs, in this text simple organs.

During runtime, the [Selection of organs ] window pops up. Within this window, the organ for which the calculations are performed can be selected. All individual organs, considered by FDMT and for which risk factors are available in LATEHEAL can be selected. Differing from version 4, there is no pre-selection of organs during the FDMT run. Either one, several or all organs can be selected. However, in case more than one organs is selected, it becomes difficult to display the names in the output results. For such a case, ‘several organs’ will be indicated. When either one or all organs are selected, the name of that organ or ‘all organs’ will be displayed in the graphics.

Selecting the button [Update] stores the selection and closes this window, [Close] closes the window without storing the selections. By default, no organ is pre-selected


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4 Results and Data Output

4.1 Output to the Graphics system

4.1.1 Possible results

Dependent on the selections made in the Initialization Windows of LATEHEAL, results will be displayed as maps or X-Y graphs in the Graphical System of RODOS. This comprises spatially distributed maps of deaths per location as well as cumulative number of deaths with respect to age or time after the accident. If only one location was selected via the input windows, the map results contain only information for this specific location. Also the cumulative results are produced only for this particular location.

Independent of the mode selected (Risk, YLL or both), all potential graphical results will be available in the graphics window, however some of them contain only zero values dependent on the mode selected. For example if the YLL mode is selected, only the YLL button in the graphics window contains non-zero values. If the risk mode is selected, all graphs contain non-zero values except the YLL button.

When running in the Risk mode, LATEHEAL calculates the number of deaths with respect to both parameters, time after the accident, and age at death. For the purpose of analysing the radiation induced stochastic health effects, LATEHEAL presents two curves for each location– the time dependent cumulative number of deaths for any age at death, and the age at death dependent cumulative number of deaths, for the first 95 years after the accident. These curves are stored and summed up, and as a result the same two cumulative curves for the total number of deaths can be displayed summed up over all locations. In the table given below, these curves are denoted as CATt (time dependent cumulative number of deaths for any age at death) and CAaT (age at death dependent cumulative number of deaths for the first 95 years after the accident). The big letter indicates the time/age interval, and the small letter indicates the “independent” variable in the graphs presented. the letter C indicates the cumulative nature of the results, with respect to both parameters.

LATEHEAL also calculates the time dependent number of deaths, which are expected to occur within a specified age interval. This curve is denoted as DtA in the table presented bellow. The letter D indicates a differential value with respect to the small letter (letter t), while the big letter indicate a


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cumulative value with respect to the corresponding parameter (letter A). So, the curve DtA versus t presents the number of deaths which is expected to occur within the t-th year after the accident, with the condition that all radiation induced deaths occurred in the specified age interval. All “differential” values obtained and presented by the RODOS graphical system refer to the total number of deaths only. However, it is possible to have such a curve for a particular location. When LATEHEAL is running in the Risk mode for one specified location, the total number of deaths is thus that one from the specified location; an asterisk in the table denotes this possibility.

Furthermore, LATEHEAL also presents the number of the radiation-induced deaths versus the age at death, for a specified time interval. The curve DTa presents the number of radiation induced deaths versus the age at death a, expected to occur within a specified time interval. The same notation is used as for the DtA as described in the previous paragraph. Although this result is primarily designed for the total number of deaths, summed up over all locations, DTa shows the corresponding curve for one specified location only, when one particular location is selected. To select only one location in the risk mode is not recommended due to a sparse statistics.

For usually one specific location, LATEHEAL can perform the YLL calculation, i.e. the assessment of the number of years of life lost per excess death, having the same flexibility of changing and mixing the parameters as it is the case for the risk calculations.

Table 1: Review of results obtained by LATEHEAL

CATt CAaT DTa DtA YLL

All

Locations

+ + + + -

One

Location

+ + + (*) + (*) +

(*) – Only when LATEHEAL runs for the specified location.


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Example results for maps and X-Y plots are shown below.


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Default results

Independent on the selection made in the initialization windows, all results are accessible in the Graphics system. However dependent in the selection of the mode, some of the graphs may contain zero values. Note: If the YLL mode was selected, only results with the indication YLL are calculated. All other graphs contain only zeros.

Default mode is Risk and all locations:

Maps (Modes Risk or Both) • Number of deaths at various ages

• 1y, 2y, 5y, 10y, 20y, 30 y, 50y, 70y, 95y

• Number of deaths at various times after the accident

• 1y, 2y, 5y, 10y, 20y, 30 y, 50y, 70y, 95y

X-Y-plots

• Total number of deaths in a defined time interval after the release versus age at death

• Total number of deaths in a defined interval of ages, versus time after the accident

• Location dependent cumulative number of deaths, versus time after the accident, for all ages at death

• Total cumulative number of deaths versus time after the accident

• Location dependent cumulative number of deaths versus age at death, for the first 95 years after the accident

• Total cumulative number of deaths versus age at death for the first 95 years after the accident

• Years of life lost (zero values in risk mode, non-zero values only in YLL mode)


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5 Error Correction Procedures

General error messages

Error messages from checking input data and model parameters

5.1 Trouble shouting


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Document History Document Title: User guide for the advanced health module LATEHEAL of

RODOS-PV5.0F Version and status: Version 1.0 (draft) Authors/Editors: Jagos J. Raicevic, Wolfgang Raskob Address: Issued by: W. Raskob History: Date of Issue: February 2003 Circulation: File Name: LATEHEAL_UGui_50e Date of print: April 16, 2003

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